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Starting a new thread to discuss technicals rather than fundamentals - I feel like the board is all agreed we are getting to first oil with >20% carry.

I've postulated before on the board that all it takes is a big player to decide they'll buy anything up to 350p looking to double their money by 2026, say play the oil cycle. But in truth I have no idea who that might be.

Checking the shareholder register, at least 40% are individuals with big stakes (Jim, Nick, Ron L, AB) or PI brokers such as AJ Bell etc. Who knows how much of the rest is small PIs - long story short can't see much Institutional money on there.

Let's say the FDP gets agreed, 2nd FO gets signed and submitted to NSTA. Say it gets passed.

Who is going to buy the stock who isn't already up to their nuts in guts (I beg your indulgence on this vulgar metaphor)?

In spite of continued good news (beating expectations soundly!), and a slam dunk DCF multibagger in plain view, there continue to be sellers and few buyers. We seemed to have bottomed for the moment so I suppose 50-50 at low volume.

Is JOG too small and illiquid for anything but tiny special sits funds? Also on the ESG schit-list?

Any ideas anyone?

Wowser. Thanks Divecentre. Can the drop in SP be explained by the possibility that the production rate could be lower due to FPSO capacity? or is it possible to get an FPSO that can deliver >85k production capacity?

Oh the gallows humour sets in (good one Cyril2)... we must be due a rise...

Bit of perk in the SP now! Touch wood.

Fear not DU, you still have your uses on the board so don't go fading just yet! I for one will happily read your 30 page report. :-)

I've made my views on Neo's highly likely tax incentive clear many times so I won't say them again (I won't make fun of my opponent's youth and inexperience -RR haha), I think your earnings based calcs are more useful and realistic. Regarding the politics and EPL all agreed, but the earnings calcs capture the idea that the 10x JOG result comes from spending those oil revs from 2026 on NS assets with hugely depressed prices (assuming lab allow incentives in some form), and history tells us that somewhere along the line the EPL will be dropped as NS investment craters, be that in 2, 5 years? JOGs 5 year plan could make investors very very rich indeed. Also those heading for FDP to sell, too of course.

Some thoughts DU - the Capex costs (and even the cash payments?) would be subject to the investment allowance, so in one sense it's much less of an investment from Neo.

I felt your simpler PBT cash analysis was much more representative - and it gets you to a similar result.

FWIW (to be pedantic) the investor base (GPs) of HitecVision I would expect to be almost exclusively institutional rather than HNW. But your point is right they will be highly sophisticated.

I think a key point is mentioned in the WH Ireland note - 'The lower capex figure is material as it will make the project more attractive for a potential farminee as will the increased project definition and the receipt of the letter of no objection from the NSTA.'

When you pay 35% less (original estimates came in at $1.4bn) to get a share of the profit, with no operational role - and don't pay milestone payments, seems absolutely insane to not have to get less of a share than NEO.

Seems like JOG have a great chance to hitting towards the 25% on the second farmout. Which - as they say - is free money.

Agree with your frustration DU. I would say on previous positive RNS sometimes the big rise happened over a few days. It doesn't take a much in such tightly held stock to see some great movement. The light is darkest just before the dawn! I do remain patient and JOG will have its day! Maybe today who knows.

That is wildy at the low end of Dev costs and gives a very strong logic for Neo to proceed. Wow.

No detailed numbers so noone can model things though. Assume that will follow over coming weeks.

Hoping things will move upward now

7veronic. The astonishingly low entry point you have on offer, much derisked from early points in the saga of JOG where the price was much higher, on the cusp (probably this week) of good news, is makes me green-eyed to the point of a cartoon character.

Of course the RNS may hit Monday and you'll never get the chance.

Just kidding, strong buy IMHO. DYOR and good luck.

Excellent. Sorry I brought up Hitler

Sometimes things take a turn for the worse on this online 'community' (PS I'd love to visit sometime, see the town hall etc) but at least no-one mentioned Hitler yet.

Drat

Its a complex question and maybe we'll never know. Perhaps it was more of a power struggle and Benitz may get ousted later.

RL is getting on a bit, perhaps board felt younger blood was better.

Remember the proposed Solution was a jack up rig, on which much work was down. The new proposals are more flexible - could have been a disagreement there.

Idle musing. If The deal gets done like I say much love to RL.

Personally I think Lansdell had to go, as evidenced by no farm out for 15 months before. Obviously the Ithaca fellows have been necessary to get the deal over the line.

Les I expect has quite a heavy golf schedule at his stage in his career, not sure he would want do a fully exec role.

Benitz I agree has little utility staying on past the fully closed FO. I predicted one of the COO or CFO wants a crack at the CEO job. Let's see.

Regardless, if this deal gets there I would by each and every one of them a pint, and a 'thank you for your service' . RL particularly to have spotted the diamond in the rough.

MPO818 - you have a point re 15months.

Please be assured my comments are good natured in tone. Just chucking my opinions about. Very little maths involved.

Jeez MP0818 if they get to half Macy's price shouldn't you be happy? Give 'em a chance! The Ithaca guys are ambitious I'm sure and will put the money to good work.

If asset prices have dropped to a post EPL (watching my acronyms carefully DU) price, the yield can still be very attractive. Even more so when BC doubles in 2026. I hope. Who else would you want at the helm?

Apologies for over-confidence but I really think we're on the cusp of the big move. Remember a big move can't happen if everyone knew it was going to!

Einbert - I think the value is so close to being unlocked it doesn't matter. At this stage it would be a bad bid if the deal was falling over, or if was close to a big announcement I think the management then be forced to waste time fighting a successful take-over defense. Reputationally I don't think it would look good to do a hostile bid at this stage. Also no investment allowance.

Some observations on the comments below.

I think the management probably are annoyed by the share price, but are deep in the trenches of finishing the farmout and feel their best efforts are concentrated on that rather than 'are we nearly there yet'. I would be put off by more IR myself. Show us the money. Silence means its coming soon. PS they told us!

I am checking my phone at 7am every day, as I believe within the next ten days you will see:

The Dev plan released, possibly a lease agreement on a FPSO, an announcement by NEO, and a second farm in or at least 'we are now in negotiations with multiple counterparties'. A concentration of locked-in value RNS rather than ever building hope but no cigar.

I would probably prefer a massive dividend in 2026 and a skeleton crew, but that ain't happening. Those lads will take a massive FCF and set about building a business at the right point of the cycle. Probs more money to be made that way.

Agree it is totally effed up DU. EPL should have been removed months ago. Unfortunately the Exchequer has his hands round the emaciated neck of the pewter goose that is UK business plc.

Meanwhile the PE execs made off with the water profits, got likely taxed personally on the gains, and the rest of us take a 40% hike.

CHF - 2mm and a lot of grunt work by the ops guys does not a 1bn capex commitment guarantee.

Uncertainty and perception of uncertainty allows you to buy JOG at this price, or even at 300. The echo of 100 failed oil minors is also what allows this story to be an investment success for us PIs.

Personally I believe (guess) NEO is here because they are mandated to invest in Europe, and have a giant tax bill to avoid. But nobody knows this for sure.

Perhaps the ops guys got the clearance to spend 2mm but the board kills it further down the line? Honestly we don't know.

I'm prepared to bet big that it will go ahead, and I think the finalisation of the FDP and 9.4mm payment eliminates a lot of risk. It also reduces the perception of risk.

Er that's it.

Einbert - so far we are guessing on 2 things:

1) NEO really wants to go ahead.

2) the FDP is economically interesting.

Guessing at the project momentum and having no model to speak of doesn't excite our institutional friends : "you did WHAT?" at the investment committee isn't a good look.

When the FDP payment of 9.4mm comes, plus a FDP with use of existing infrastructure, decent economics, 1 and 2 are looking MUCH more certain. I think that must bring more PIs and institutions. Completing the FO boosts the model further. We will see a good move upwards if this all comes to pass; weeks to wait here. IMHO.