Member Info for Ghia

edit "225 not 250"

A bit of perspective on the reported efficacy of the vaccine.

Data suggests 1% of the UK population has been infected with Covid.

The Phifzer vaccine had around 45,000 patients. So you would expect roughly 450 people to get infected.

Assuming the vaccine is 100% effective you could argue you'd expect to see 250 infected placebo patients.

The fact that there are only 93 recorded infections suggests it is far too early to draw any conclusions yet.

How long before the narrative shifts from imminent vaccine to what does the 90% and 94% effective numbers really mean?

We may well get 10 vaccines spouting initial numbers in the high 90's yet yesterday the Pfizer guy cautioned vaccine would not make an impact until next winter and he also slipped in a 50% effectiveness figure.

These numbers getting thrown around at the moment are very provisional, great for grabbing sensationalist headlines but the true effectiveness of the vaccines is yet to be determined and we won't find out for many months maybe years.

Current price is an excellent buying opportunity, I doubt we will see sub £1 again but if we do I will be very greedy.

Richlist - Exactly RM seems very much in control.

The Clinigen MAP deal is to ensure we have a partner in place that has all the relevant distribution requirements such that on success P3 data there is no hurdle to receive authorisation.

Without Clinigen we would be reliant on big pharma, with Clinigen we are in a position of strength without compromising time to market.

The only issue we are likely to face next year is not having the scale required to meet demand.

That’s a very exciting prospect for us and any potential partner.

Lanky - The benefit will be the young will be so far down the list of priorities to receive the vaccine it will be years before there is enough available.

By then side effects will probably have surfaced.

SNG001 will be a formidable drug to have in your portfolio.

A broad spectrum antiviral that has to date a superb safety profile and has been proven to work well with various forms of steroids.

As you have mentioned in certain circumstances Covid spreads to effect many major organs in the body. Having a drug that plays nicely with other treatments that may be used to target specific organs would be another plus.

If you are a major pharma looking to purchase SNG001 you will be looking at how over the next 5-10 years you will develop the use case and combination therapies to further extend patents.

RM alluded to this in one of his recent videos, when he discussed the eventual owner of the drug perhaps looking at cancer patients or premature babies.

I’ll say it again blockbuster drug in the making.

I think they will recruit like mad and if they end up overshooting 900 that’s a bonus.

As you see from the phase 2 data people drop out for a variety of reasons.

Also the timing of the POLAR RNS seems to suggest they accumulated on the open market and not during the placing.

I suspect all will become clear shortly after the 18th.

CW25 - Agreed LL & Venrock has been a bit odd. Hopefully it will all make sense in the end.

Doc - I expect some follow up news flow next week RM is due to be presenting and I think it’s highly likely P3 trial will officially start.

Doc - All those suggestions would be comforting for the PI and probably beneficial for the short term share price however they would matter not for the long term value of this drug.

I didn’t invest here for large news flow which inflates the short term price I invested here because the company pulls its weight where it matters.

The company vouched for their data in July now the lancet are backing them up.

They stipulated P3 would start in November so on the boards track record the P3 will start in November.

The timing of this really favours the government IMO.

It’s obvious people are desperate for a vaccine but it is nigh on impossible to secure enough vaccine in a timely manner to vaccinate the country and that’s assuming the vaccines stand up to scrutiny.

When we hit December and the reality strikes that we can only distribute enough vaccine for a few % the popular how good would it be to roll out a treatment with 15years of development to plug the gap.

Oh and the same treatment can protect us from potential future nasties.

Merryn Somerset Webb From money week.

Potential broad spectrum antiviral!!!

Blockbuster drug in the making.

“ the results of this pilot trial suggest that the efficacy of SNG001 should also be assessed in the hospital setting against other seasonal respiratory viruses, which cause considerable morbidity and mortality every year, including cases of SARS-CoV-2 co-infection, which could overwhelm health-care systems during the coming months in the northern hemisphere.”

Not by name but obvious it was SNG being referenced

I guess this is a bit unexpected, test never intended for public use.

"They were never intended for, and have never been issued for widespread public use and it is misleading and unnecessarily inflammatory to purposefully ignore this fact in the report.”

Look on the bright side it was fantastic timing to get the placing away at £1.75.

The dilution would have been much worse had the vaccine news come earlier.

Personally I think the board are more in control of the situation than PI’s give them credit for.

@peasant - it was gut wrenching having held at 60p to then see people jumping onboard at 35p. Luckily I had funds to buy in the 30’s and have funds to nibble away now at anything sub £1. Keep the faith and I’m sure you will be rewarded.

It’s also worth noting the $200 million placing was to fund the phase 3 trial.

Stark contrast to our £87million funding which is for Phase 3 pivotal and initial production run.

Our Board had the confidence to scale up manufacturing that’s a clear sign of their confidence.

Tyla - Verona has been discussed here a bit earlier in the year.

Very different treatments despite targeting the same condition.

Verona is more of a management drug to reduce inflammation SNG kick starts your bodies antiviral response.

GOOSE - Here Here!! Suggest people run the numbers on volume of sales that would underpin a £4, £8, £10 share price.

I'll let you go figure what it would mean if the company convert on the 100k doses figure in Q1.