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tad overoptimistic? I was say massively conservative....most businesses growing +15% organically in the market are at multiples of 20x+...Centralnic is starting from a small base and posting consistently above 60% organic growth rates with increasingly higher margins and free cash flow...
Zeus are DCFing a c.14x multiple...seems ultra conservative...
it is a purely non-operational potential liability which could just as easily swing into a gain in 1 day. I care far more about what FCF the business actually generates from its core operations than an FX trade which most businesses with global revenues will use to hedge FX risk....astounding that some people will ignore the unmatched organic growth, high margins, massive CFO and FCF, limited capex and scalability...the list goes on.
it's not even part of the income statement, its in other comprehensive income...the idea the company should say in their headline numbers 'oh yes and the big highlight this year is our FX hedge which comes due next year and moves in value each day...' - what planet are you guys on? of course they are going to refer to the core business and the exceptional growth, ebitda margin and fcf numbers. get real.
it's a non-cash hedging loss for FX.....6mm quid of non-cash. people's accounting knowledge is quite astonishing.
could not agree more - and yes, the posted who thought a 5mm currency adjustment was too blame...makes me realise even more what kind of market we are dealing in and the participants in it!!! absolutely mental.
I would encourage anyone to re read the numbers and watch the presentation...rather than worry about a few percentage points on the AIM.
oogleflugal...we posted at same time...totally agree with you. particularly ben...as well as having so much of his net wealth in this...he's so laid back and upfront and you could see that cheeky smile re a billion in revenues...apply a run-rate and we get there. but given how bad 2022 has been in the wider market...you could see them blowing them top off that number next year. crazy!!
DaddyAIM, Rivaldo etc....no point in even responding to these people who are claiming this is fairly valued and moaning about a drop in fictional accounting EPS which is driven by non-cash items. They are either spiteful for some reason or unable to read accounts...probably a mix of both.
Frustrating day here for SH's...but just have to read those numbers and be patient. If someone could point me to stronger numbers in the UK stockmarket...I'd like to be referred to them. Unbelievable really...I think we are looking at a future NASDAQ darling....unless we get bought out on the cheap and only make 50-60% (unlikely given Max (Kestrel) and Ben will never allow it thankfully.
Company is a cash flow machine...unbelievable to think how much free cash flow we are now generating. while at the same time the addressable market is so big its difficult to get your head around....so exciting to be a shareholder here.
Some of his comments very interesting re listing in US and SP performance - was very upfront that given CNIC is only down c.10% vs. other tech players, funds etc are selling for liquidity reasons. We know its clearly not performance reasons...
I saw and read the Berenberg report and tried to take an objective view of it given I'm a big backer of Kape.
I think the banks report last November was pretty justified and actually very good analysis. Basically it worried about financial reporting/capitalising of costs/cash conversion (some other stuff there as well but those were the main)...
I think yesterday's was unfair to a degree. It had said last November they wanted to see how acquisitions bedded in and its clear from this year that it's going fantastically. I think a price cut from 410p when you were majorly unsure about acquisitions down to 270p when we have had a very strong year and superb acquisition integration is unjustified.
Just my opinion...seemed a little weird. Very keen to hear others thoughts e.g. Rivaldo etc
poker...this is the part of all this one that has had me scratching my head. absolutely insane that he came out and said that...would do anything know what really went on there.
Been a bystander on this s*** show for months now...and had been close a number of times putting my foot in. Market gods were looking down so thankful for that. What strikes me is how appauling and unfaithful the correspondance has been from the company...noting the update only a week ago which tried to sound fairly positive!! Really feel for people who went into this off the back of that Doncaster car magnate loading up....
Really one of those cases which seemed unlikely to get to this stage...vs. other collapses the Joules brand is actually pretty good, you had TJ who disgracefully has not stepped in to support this, and then the Doncaster businessman who had apparently been to see the mgmt. team etc...there was a lot to back up an investment case in some ways.
Anyway....very sorry for anyone who lost out here, but I've learnt this year through Evraz that it happens.
The volume today on this thing in a matter of two hours!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
surprised at the fall off here today...how could these results be any better?!!
2mm quid now worth of buys....something leaked?
what do you think will make us richer Rivaldo? Centralnic or Kape?
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mark-bergen-on-apples-threat-to-the-online-ad-industry/id1056200096?i=1000584901392
a must listen for centralnic investors...
this comment I'm sure myself and Rivaldo (we both seem to be in the biggest love affairs for the company!!) would agree with! very much my thoughts on all of these...the one thing I'm still unclear on is the Google exposure...
the company i think is one that is hard to understand to be honest...I can conceptually understand what they are doing and how big the market is...and they have a large chunk of the online presence business which has all the attributes of a classic quality investment (and its easy to follow)....but online marketing is just a complex web which i think even I still struggle to explain well in words to people I describe this as my favourite investment to (never a positive). Management presentations highlight all the positive growth numbers but if you are not part of the digital ad market, it's not easy to follow the structure of the market.
the numbers in this case thought speak for themselves...and with a lot of research I've now managed to get my head around more what market online marketing is targeting and how large this will be going forward. they are a tadpole in an atlantic ocean.
i'll be bold...i think in 5 years this could potentially be either a darling on one of the big US tech indices or a darling of the FTSE 250. I'm looking at this share and really thinking that it could be the 'get rich' share that a lot of successful investors get at the start of their career and from which everything else follows. Same sentiment towards Kape technologies.
Some views on valuation:
at 4-5x revenue (i.e. 20 pounds and over)...it was still trading below revenue transaction / comp multiples in the audio-tech sector etc
at 2x revenue (i.e. 10 pounds)..it was trading way under revenue multiples in audio-tech/tech sectors
at 1x revenue (i.e. now)...revenue multiple valuation disparity is insane. However, it is not trading c.18-20x earnings...so on an that basis for the growth rates we are seeing, its incredibly good value. And net cash.
oogle...I could not agree more. if there is any business in my view which one should be allocating as much as of their wealth as humanely possible...this is it. Its margin of safety is immeasurable. Throws off so much cash, has no capex needs, has negative working capital (i.e. free financing), growing rapidly and is a tiny fish in a huge pond...and trades on metrics you'd expect to see in a no growth business.
Fill your boots.