The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
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Https://www.thedefensepost.com/2024/05/02/macron-ukraine-troop-deployment/
No worries H, I really do think it is. I am more concerned at how things on the battle might turn out. The Russians are currently assaulting Chasiv Yar – occupying it would give the Russians easy access to the major towns in Donetsk Oblast. Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Head of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, recently said in an Economist interview that defending Chasiv Yar is proving to be hard. The Russians are throwing everything at the Ukrainians – Su-34 bombers, Su-25 attack jets, FAB-500 glide bombs, loitering munitions like the HESA Shahed 136 and the ZALA Lancet drone, Storm Z and Storm V penal units in so-called 'meat waves', ODAB-1500 thermobaric bombs, paratroopers from the elite 331st Guards Airborne Regiment, incendiary munitions like white phosphorous, armoured convoys of AFV's like the BMD-2 and BMP-2 and APC's like the BTR-80 APC, plus lots of T-72 tanks. The Ukrainians are doing a stellar job holding them off so far, but they are desperately short of men and munitions.
Thanks LL. This mirrors my own analysis- a worst case legal scenario is already priced in.
Howardzzz – Ferrexpo has recorded a provision of $131 million in the chance they do lose the court case. This will be more than to cover any negative outcome from the two legal cases. Ferrexpo would have recorded a profit of $46 million this year, if not for this. Hence, they reported a loss of $85 million instead.
I will leave you with some financial highlights from their report:
• Revenue 48% lower at US$652 million due to lower realisable sales resulting from logistics constraints and a decrease in average iron ore prices (2022: US$1.2 billion).
• Underlying EBITDAA fell to US$130 million at an EBITDA margin of 20%, heavily influenced by operating foreign exchange gains of only US$31 million for 2023 compared to US$339 million in 2022.
• Net cash flows from operations: remain positive at US$101 million despite the significant challenges posed by the war (2022: US$301 million).
• US$131 million effect from provisions to cover possible negative outcome of ongoing legal proceedings results in a loss of US$85 million.
• Capital investment of US$101 million, including sustaining and optimisation projects (2022: US$161 million).
• Net cash position: improved marginally to US$108 million as at 31 December 2023 (2022: US$106 million
@JWBellamy
Yes i do care but people who own this right now know of the current risks, if you wanna provide links to changes in the situations or anything that people don't know that would be productive. Just general scare mongering to try and get people to sell and make your short position more valuable is clearly not productive
Provision in the financial statements is just a non cash thing
Actual settlement of the US$125 mn claim, if that eventually happens, will completely evaporate FXPO’s cash balance
LoungeLizard - thanks for your very interesting contributions.
Can I ask you about the court cases ? Hasn't Ferrexpo already made provisions for any worst-case scenarios (ie losing the cases) and set money aside to cover most if not all possible losses ? So in that case its finances won't be adversely affected if the company loses (which, as you say, is unlikely anyway)?
“You could wake up to an rns saying the plant has been destroyed”
Russia would prefer to appropriate the mines themselves. There is no “plant.” If they do attack, it might cost them too much in terms of material and manpower. Mines are too disparate in terms of targets. Much of the infrastructure is underground. Remember Avdiivka? More Russians died taking Metinvest’s Coke and Chemical Plant than during the
entirety of the ten-year Soviet–Afghan War. A true Pyrric victory.
“You could wake up to an rns saying they have lost their court cases and need to find cash they don’t have”
I am confident they will prevail in the courts.
In terms of cash, they have plenty. Read the annual report, cash is not something they have a lack of.
JW Bell end ..... you could be killed in a car accident or lightning strike.... probably won't happen but we remain hopeful....
In case you were not aware bombing their open cast mine would probably increase production 😕....the court case is aimed at their corrupt russian backing shareholder zhevago... Ukraine are after him and not the company
You don’t care about people potentially losing everything?
Contribute something productive or go away
You could wake up to an rns saying the plant has been destroyed
You could wake up to an rns saying they have lost their court cases and need to find cash they don’t have
@JWBellamy
'Shareholders are fortunate to still be able to sell above 50p imo'
Is their good fortune your miss fortune?
IMO shorters should be grateful they can still close their positions for less than £1.
There's certainly a heightened risk of total loss but the share price reflects that. Market cap is around £300m which is less than half pre-tax profits not so long ago. The potential gain, if the issues are resolved, is many multiples of the potential loss. I'm happy to hold but not too many!
Did you ever read a book about a canary.
Court cases risking most of the balance sheet and the threat every day of missile strikes or invasion. Shareholders are fortunate to still be able to sell above 50p imo