Member Info for Krok

Once Russia takes over the city of Pokrovsk, which will likely happen in the next month, they will also get hold of Krasnoarmeysk coal mine located nearby

This mine is the only producer of coking coal in Ukraine, which allegedly covers 90% of respective coal demand for steel production

There are plenty of articles and reports in the press claiming that it will then lead to a collapse in Ukrainian steel production

If that's the case, how can this affect FXPO?

Oppportunity to exit for those who did not previously. They will not win it

The news seems to be a b/s

The auction was supposed to take place in late September, the initial price was less than 5 mn pounds

The auction failed because it turned out to be no interest to the field

Link (in Russian):

https://gold.1prime.ru/news/20240910/554369.html?ysclid=m3swcaj83z907063543

At the previous halt in summer 2023, the share price was 12.45p. Back then, the company still had some production at their major field

Now they have zero production and the majority of their cash is locked in Ukraine

Not good, it will potentially go below 10p, unless halted again

The majority of ENW’s cash balance is currently in Ukrainian banks in hryvna. This is different drom the previous case. Apparently, there have been strict currency transfer restrictions

So I don’t think they would be able to pay anotger 15p dividend

Moreover, it may well be the case that their Ukrainian cash is arrested

I sold it at 23.5 pence on these risks. Missed the most latest rise but still happy I was right

FXPO may be the next one

Given the impressive original flow rates, I understand that new wells still pay back in a couple of months. This provides a great return on tge cost of drilling

That said, elevated watercuts are an issue they will need to deal with. Declining production is never a good thing

The bad thing apparently is that our overall production is declining as we put new wells on stream

If my memory serves me, previous production rate was 5.9 kbopd, the current one, with the latest addition to the wells fund, is 5.3 kboepd, 10% lower

So the production from the existing wells falls faster than we drill new wells and put them on stream

There seems to be a new arrival to the bunch of usual brainwashed suspects, lol

Also let's not forget that company-specific issues are nowhere close to being resolved. There has been silence for a few months now but any of the issues can materialise again any time

Judging by today's performance, I should have sold the other half yesterday, lol))

Sold half of my holding today at 80, as planned. Nice and easy ride, the price has basically doubled on pretty optimistic expectations, which are far from being real

No doubt, there is going to be a bumpy road in the coming weeks and months. Chances are there will be another good entry point (perhaps more than one)

Trump 100% ending the war is nothing but a wishful thinking. Ending the war on Russia's terms will be such a humiliation the Ukraine's masters can hardly handle

Wondering what would be the right timing (and share price) to close the long position in FXPO?

Once Trump wins next week (it is pretty much obvious by now), the share price will hopefully surge

That said, I think the rise may well be a short-lived one, as there is no quick fix for the war

Whatever Trump has claimed or promised

Russia is getting 500+ km2 of Ukraine’s territory every month and it is only increasing. The frontline is close to collapsing, so the gains can be much larger. Little incentive to negotiate unless on Russia’s terms (which are pretty close already to the status quo)

Thinking about closing at least half once it reaches 80 p

Any thoughts?

Guys, you should clearly understand the Russia has implemented severe ways to prevent by all means an exodus of foreign investors from the county

It is all done with a single goal - to make an exit really difficult and painful for the seller

Moderate your expectations. Apparently, 50+mn pounds mcap is a hell lot for this company under the current circumstances

The listing itself doesn’t change a thing. It doesn’t matter whether there is an AIM listing, or Kazakh one, even if there is none (or both), the Russian law on foreign investments would equally apply

That means a minimum of 60% discount on assets’s fair value and 35% exit tax

So if the assets are finally valued at $200mn, sold for $80mn, and the tax is fully paid by the seller, there will be only $10mn left

Then the question arises whether these $10mn will have to be deposited on a type C account restricting its transfer outside of Russia or whether EUA will be able to get the transfer approved by the Governmental Commision as part of the deal

If we don't see massive power shortages, which would make FXPO stop its production, then 1 pound per share seems quite possible in the next 2-3 weeks, imo

Another serious risk factor is ongoing lawsuits. Strangely, no updates whatsoever on this front for quite some time now

Just a couple of positive comments from Trump post elections may be sufficient to support the stock further

Deutsche Bank cuts boohoo price target to 26 (27) pence - 'sell'

That’s brutal, what do they have in mind? Anyone seen the paper?

Russia’s demise - lol, what a topic

How ret@rded one should be to seriously discuss it this way in Oct 24?

Trump’s winning the race is a great thing for FXPO, the share price speaks for itself most recently

Still, a couple of idiots, who surely sit with a 70-80% loss, dare to complain about it

For every MATD share trade, there are four posts today, quite a ratio!

Does it mean the share price is to quadriple in the next four weeks?))

In the last two months (Aug and Sept), Russia has gained 5 times more territory in Ukraine than in 2023 combined. Basicallly, it is now 300-400 km2 every month and increasing

On the other hand, Ukrainian forces are pretty much destroyed in Kursk and whatever is left will likely step back to the Ukrainian territory in the next few weeks

Coupled with Trump becoming a new US President, this will potentially open a room for negotiations

Ukraine will have to accept the inevitable truth that the four regions are lost

If it continues living in miracles, the four oblasts will turn into six and then into eight. 20% of lost territory will become 40%

Hamm, again and again you keep saying nonsense regarding MATD per barrel valuation, which you claim is 0.06p per boo (whatever that means)

With 60 mmbbl of recoverable reserves (I take this number for granted) and 35 mn pounds MCAP, that's almost 60 pence per barrel. Or US$0.78/bbl

Tha latter number is not a huge undervaluation, given the reserves are not producing (and possibly not even proved undeveloped) and taking into account so many other risk factors specific to MATD current situation)

Contrary to all Zelensky us saying, he doesn’t need peace. He wants to continue the war, he wants to continue getting billions in financial aid, from which his subordinates can easily steal

For him peace means elections, which he will most likely lose

And then possibly go to jail for what he has done to Ukraine