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Ev, I'll let you know once I am in again. Fingers crossed, you'll be all ears then))
For the time being, feel free just to scroll down my posts. My attidude towards what's going on in Ukraine and where it goes remains intact, regardless of whether I am invested in FXPO or not
I sold solely due to company-specific risks
The best thing which can happen to FXPO is Ukraine giving in the territories under Russian control , while getting sufficient guarantees that its remaining territories will be free from any future assault
You should pray for a negotiated settlement to make a gain on your FXPO investment
Interestingly, there are more and more articles like this one in the Western media. Why is that?
Ukraine and the West are facing a devastating defeat
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/07/18/ukraine-and-the-west-are-facing-a-devastating-defeat/
The Crimean bridge hasn’t been used in military logistics for months. There is now an inland route throughout the so called “new Russian regions”
The bridge is primarily used by tourists, particularly during the summer period
Unbelievable that anyone invested into a Ukrainian stock could welcome an event potentially leading to further escalation
Last time half of Ukrainian power generation was destroyed. Now the grain deal is off the table. What’s next?
In the meantime, the bridge is operating in a reverse mode
1-3 year horizon is like eternity in the current circumstances
Risks are obvious and they can materialize any time
There should be some meaningful short-term upside to counter-balance the risks
If the 1H report does not move the share price, I will probably close my position. Flat so far
There may be then a better entry point in the future
What do you think they report in early August? What news can drive the price upward?
If there are no positive developments and the price remains intact, what’s the rationale for holding it further?
Purely from company fundamentals’ point of view, geopolitics aside
Just unbelievable how naive some can be…
The assets have been already arrested. They are just one step from being taken over
It will be presented as a move against an oligarkh, who apparently haven’t supported the Great Ukraine to the extent necessary
You doubt that? You are definitely pro-Russian!
Lol
The risk is real, unfortunately. We have to face it
If FXPO were a private company, its assets would likely have been seized by now (Apeirogon, please check my grammar))
The premium listing in the UK and the board full of European citizens are some kind of protection. But not a guarantee
Thanks, Alex, interesting. I think this is a type of discussions we need to have more often in this thread
Regarding FCPO’s major shareholder, do you think diluting him to below 50% was a hostile act of the board against him? Or were they acting in concert in this regard trying to minimize risks for the company?
From corporate governance point of view that was outrageous. Selling treasury stock to a third party and providing that party with an interest free loan so that he could finance the share purchase
The question is whether Zhivago had any role in this?
If not and that was the hostile move against him, can we expect to have a conflict between Zhivago and the board?
There was a similar situation at JKX a few years ago where the board tried to downplay the role of Kolomoiskiy, another Ukrainian oligarkh. The conflict lasted for several years but eventually the board was dismissed and replaced with Kolomoiskiy’s people
It remains to be seen what their unit economics is like these days
Hryvna devaluation is a positive
More complicated and therefore expensive logistics is a negative
A significant part of the cashflow goes to support the war needs. Negative, from my personal point of view
How much capex to they need in this environment? Can they delay it into the future?
The last but not the least, are they able to start paying dividends again?