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Nothing but a wishful thinking
My understanding is that with 75%+ stake you can delist an AIM company at any time
Oldholder, you are trying to position Novinskiy as a white knight saving poor minorities. He is not, by any chance
Back in 2012, he couldn’t but pay 42p or 54p or whatever it was. That was a completely different game in a completely different environment
Now, in 2021, he can choose whatever price he sees fit to buy you out. You will have to accept anyway
But he won’t, in my view
Fenm, I think he will not choose to de-list any time soon. Why should he?
Dividend in 2021 is highly unlikely. ENW’s capex is going to be $40-50 mn in the next 12 months. The cash pile will decrease, as a result. No room for the dividend under the circumstances
The production is going to decrease throughout the year, this doesn’t support the divi either
In 2020, JKX drilled 3 wells and 2 sidetracks in Ukraine; also performed 13 workovers there. The result is a loss of 28% of production.
In 2021, three more quarters like 1Q (12% drop) and 4Q production would be a lousy 2.5 kboepd. JKX might become loss making at these levels
Is the loss of key producing well also a loss of hope for JKX?
Ukraine production of 3,843 in Q1 2021 is 12% lower due to the loss of IG142 which produced an average of 321 boepd in Q1 2021 before it stopped producing in the middle of February
IG142 lost, IG146 failed. Next is IG149
All you need to know about the quality of JKX’ remaining reserves in Ukraine:
IG146 was completed to the Devonian in Ignativske and encountered 2.6m of logged net hydrocarbon bearing thickness. After initially testing at an oil rate of 497 bopd and a gas rate of 35 Mcmd in November the rate declined and the well is currently producing 6 Mcmd of gas (35 boepd).
Naive, very naive))
With the shareholding Novinsky has he can delist it any time. At half the price you offered. And you will have to accept
What’s your bet if the well they are drilling is dry and 2Q production falls by another 12% down to 3.3 kboepd?
CAD is a scam, dont touch it. Sell it if you own while it it reasonably high
JKX - another disappointment, one in a row
Huge volumes in the last few days. Once the buyer disappears, the share price will likely go back to 20-ish
Need the results of the spudded well, plus 2Q production
If the well is dry and production is 3.3 kboepd (another 12% drop from 1Q), 20p will be n aspirational target
Baron at some point claimed he had over 1% stake in ENW and a large chunk in VGAS. And then JKX, yes
He then stopped mentioning ENW and VGAS but never confirmed that he had sold
JKX have been his last baby. It let him down as well))
Baron was a hero here a couple of years ago. Where are all his worshippers now? Why so silent?
It is now on the front page of Ukrnafta website
Oldholder, your link proves it is way more complicated and far away from being over. CEO then is lying in the interview
Some Ukrainian politicians and the prosecutor clearly want to void the court decision
Doesnt sound right, particularly given ENW already paid over $6 mn
And a few thoughts on Arkona:
- risk of losing $15 mn if the 1st well is unsuccessful
- in case of success, no immediate impact on production and cashflow, as there is no infrastructure on the field. Will need to shut down the well till the pipeline(s) connect it to the processing plant
- most importantly, do not understand why they burn their money on this new (i.e. risky) asset when they have 28 mmboe of proved and 50 mmboe of proved and probable reserves on the existing fields
The existing 1P and 2P reserves cover 16 and 30 years of the current production. Why not develop these reserves, which have lower risks?
Interview of Sergey Glazunov, CEO of Smart Energy and ENW (in Russian, requires an e-mail to get full text):
https://nv.ua/biz/markets/biznes-novinskogo-kak-uvelichivaet-dobychu-gaza-kompaniya-smart-energy-intervyu-s-sergeem-glazunovym-50154276.html?code=64831f7a-027c-41f7-9f8b-6309506bf5a7&fbclid=IwAR1VxYfDVwW2x0KwzWIuH7hmTuGnNdFqE5umXRdQID4VzH5XgBihjw0Towo
Key conclusions:
- 2021 production flat at best, likely to decline
- drilling one well, will spud two more in 2021 (one on Askona field)
- plans to shut down a gas processing unit in 2H21 to boost production of LPG in 2022
- no plans to merge UGV and ENW
- Askona legal battle is over
My takeaways:
- Production will decline, particularly due to the shutdown in 2H
- capex of $45-50 mn in the next 12-15 months
- substantial decrease in cash, down to maybe $40 mn
- no dividends
- impact on production from new drilling remains to be seen
- boost in LPG production is good but it will materialize in 1H22
All-in-all, no positive developments in the next 8-9 months. Gas prices can help a bit
The share price will likely stay flat or decrease somewhat throughout 2021
Thordon, 20p, my dear, 20p on screeb. Have a look)
No need even for another quarter like this
If the well they have just spudded is dry as the case was with a previous one and a sidetrack, and on top of that 2Q production falls below 3.5 kboepd, the share price will be 15p
And you can scream as much as you’d like about what a great company it is
You can call me whatever you like but I make decent money out of here while you have been sitting for years mumbling all your nonsense and increasing your losses
Aimsurfer, it is a private asset in the south of Russia, it will tell you nothing.
It us not about having or not having an LSE ticker. Many assets of this size face very similar issues and I can tell you from inside the industry JKX is in a big trouble now
And, for the record, all this happened at record gas prices
Once the share price falls below 20p, and it inevitably will if there is another quarter like this, all happy holders will shut up as simply mentioning you have this stock in your portfolio will be too humiliating))
Just scroll down this thread - I warned of what happened today a few months ago
It actually turned to be much worse than I thought it would
Minus 15% in a single day, almost half of value lost in the last 6 months - what a great company indeed!))
Keep holding, guys, always good to be a happy holder)
The valuation of an upstream asset has nothing to do with a FCF in a single quarter (or several quarters)
Tge asset heeds to have stable or, better, growing production, ability to consistently generate positive FCF without sacrificing the production and management willingness to distribute that FCF to shareholders
JKX currently has none of the above