RE: There is no investment case here without17 Apr 2025 09:47
2025 is going to be a disastrous year for Wood, no doubt about that
It is such a pity that this deal is taking place at a time when so many company-specific issues have coincided with poor O&G market dynamics
My gut feeling is that this year Wood will have the following financials:
- EBITDA of $200-250 mn (rather than $450 mn promised by Wood)
- Free cash outflow if $400-500 mn (not unrealistic $150-200 mn, as management have said)
The latter will be so bad not least because of a negative working capital. Clients will require more time to pay, while suppliers and contractors will insist on more expedite settlements
If I am right, and this negative FCF is financed with new debt, than by year-end we are easily at 6.0-7.0x Debt/EBITDA
And this is a recipe for disaster
Therefore, the 35p offer is a good deal under the circumstances. Sidara will have to inject a lot more than that into the business to keep it solvent. Probably more than this $450 mn of immediate funding