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All on very thin volumes. Seems no one is prepared to buy and someone needs to sell regardless of the price
May be that some company specific news finally coming. Definitely, not market related
Bizarre and irritating anyway
Ukraine has not been buying Russian gas directly for seceral years
They buy it from Europe but it is still Russian gas. More expensive because of transportation
The link you provided, which everyone uses, is for a pretty illiquid and therefore irrelevant instrument
Just have a look at the volumes, peanuts
Nobody buys gas at these prices these days
It was relevant historically but not any longer in this frenzy time
I think from some point gas prices are somewhat irrelevant for the likes of ENW
Whether it is $1000 or 2000 per mcm, I think ENW still sells its gas for $500-600 per mcm
ENW prices are definitely linked to spot prices, but only to a certain extent
Also, would not be surprised if Smart Energy gets at least part of the upside
Officer, Arakhamia is one of the most odious Ukrainian politicians, famous for many bull**** ideas
Georgian by nationality, born in Russia, lived in Sochi in the south of Russia, moved to Ukraine, then to the US, then back to Ukraine. A friend of Zelenskiy, apparently
More of a clown than a politician for me but anyway
I reckon you mean his latest proposal to limit gas tariffs for businesses
Seems that he is lobbying someone’s interests here. Probably, a large gas consumer. Rumors are that it is Firtash, who stands behind him. He has a large fertilizers business
There will be plenty of powerful oligarkhs and politicians working for them who will be strongly against it
This will definitely not help Ukraine to get further funding from the IMF and EBRD, on which the country relies a lot
This will not help to become self-sufficient in terms of gas supplies
And so on and so on. Plenty of reasons against it
So, highly unlikely, in my way
Significant delay more likely means bad news
If you have an inflow of hydrocarbons, particularly, gas, you know it pretty much instantly
If you well is dry and you need to perforate another horizon or do something else - this takes additional time
It is a fair reference point
ENW’s TSO are approximately two times that of JKX
So equal share prices imply that ENW’s MCAp is two times JKX’s MCap
Justified in terms of reserves. Not justified in terms of production and cashflow
Both ENW and JKX have pros and cons. I have been trading both for several years. There were times ENW looked much better (some factors mentioned above), at some point, however, JKX looked better
So it was a stupid strategy to buy and hold for . I bought and sold both of them several times
Now they are pretty much on par. Both are driven primarily by gas prices and associated revenues. Not much to do with company specific factors
Both can go up to 50-60p. Both have risks, which can do harm to the share prices
If gas prices return to where they were a year ago, prices can easily drop back to 20-25p. So it’s crucial to exit at a right time
Merger between the two? No way, that’s for sure
SC is very similar to what ENW already develop
ENW will not commence production there in the next couple of years
500-700 boepd is what they normally get from a majority of their wells. These are reasonable flow rates, it is just well depths which dont help
Selling and sold are not the same. It’s always pretty unpredictable
I am invested in both for now and not planning to sell. When you major upside is gas prices, not company-specific factors, it’s better to be diversified
Re JKX, Kolomoiskiy, on top of various issues in Ikraibe, is also on a sanction list in Russia
I am really surprised YGE has not been taken away for so many years
You can google what has happened to Russian assets of other Ukrainian oligarkhs
Three weeks delay of drilling results - is it good or bad. That is the question
Two new development wells should give 1.0-1.5 kboepd of new production in total, while the third one should explore the potential of the SC license
Not even close to doubling the production
Gas prices is our only friend
Russian gas production is increasing, doesnt help to stop the price hike
Russian gas production up 9.6% YoY in September
On 4 October, Interfax reported Russian gas production for September. Total output of 61.0bcm in September 2021 was up 5.7% MoM and up 9.6% YoY. On a YtD basis, Russian gas production is up 11.9% YoY. Gazprom output of 40.9bcm accounted for 67% of Russian total output and was up 4.6% MoM and up 11.9% YoY. NOVATEK's 5.9bcm was up 14.4% MoM and down 4.6% YoY. Rosneft's 3.9bcm was up 2.7% MoM and up 18.5% YoY. Gazprom Neft's 2.3bcm was down 2.3% MoM and up 42.1% YoY and LUKOIL's 1.5bcm was down 2.0% MoM and down 7.0% YoY.
SR123, you definitely have a point here
On the other hand, if ENW had $100 mn in cash, not $60 mn, what would that have changed for us, minority shareholders?
Not much, I reckon. Still no dividends, still no meaningful increase in production, still too much capex per well
Both have a number of pros and cons. I shared my point of view on both stocks many times
Under the circumstances, I would own both. The trend is good for both
Unless either or both of them pays a divi, cash balance by itself does not mean much
I am seriously concerned by JKX's ability to maintain its Ukrainian production, let alone to grow it. The latest well was a success (contrary to my expectations, I must admit) but before that there were several failures. JKX's assets in Ukraine are severely depleted, you should clearly understand this. The latest well changed nothing in this regard
ENW has better quality of assets, but the reserves are deep in the ground, so it costs a fortune to drill a well. 500-600 boepd initial production which quickly falls is not enough to justify a $12-15 well cost. Plus, it seems that the controlling shareholder may be benefiting from it
Anyway, the major driver for both companies now is gas prices. Seems that it will be a harsh winter for Europe. Share prices should benefit from this further
I made a lot of money on ENW and, to a lesser extent, on JKX back in 2018. Hope to repeat it, at least partially this time