Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Ha I feel for you Pompal!! Although frustrating....just keep in mind that this isn't some gamble in the dark. Company's valuation is continents apart from fair value - honestly in this UK small cap market with these kind of companies like Kape and CentralNic...I'm taking the view that I actually want to see the SP's crash...because its the closest thing to a money tree if one is patient. While these companies grow in high double digits organically and throw off cash...then I welcome being able to pay low single digit multiples to own them.
the problem at the moment is there is very little momentum behind this share....only real potential catalyst is M&A...but performance has been hit hard and it could well continue to be difficult for them through 23. Been just horrible losses for me this and hope to recoup them...but does feel like a very uphill battle.
This is true for the Chairman...and I would be saying completely different things this morning if he was still loading up like before...but he hasn't been which is frustrating. Ceo also has committed a pretty minimal amount.
One of my frustrations is the lack of Tobin buying. if he thought 22 quid was value....you'd think he would be throwing the kitchen sink at it right now?
Invested here heavily...not trying to darken the morning. Just want to open up discussion on as where we are right now is a little frustrating...not good to be in a stock when only imminent way out is a takeover premium...
The problem is simply one of valuation at the moment from markets perspective (less of a concern for a potential trade buyer)...but in this market +25% annual growth (which has declined and declined throughout the year quite markedly) doesn't give much room for any kind of re-rate for this business given its low margin. On an earnings basis, it is still very expensive at 4 quid - please note...I don't think thats really the right and only measure for this Group and a sales multiple in the audiotech sector and vs. acq's in the space shows BOOM to be enormously cheap. It's just the equity markets don't look at it like that and 25% growth is not very high compared to other names in the UK small cap market e.g. CentralNic + Kape...who are able to throw off much higher margins and are on single digit multiples.
Boom is one for the patient, but they really need to start convincing investors that 23 is looking to be positive - some data in that update today were worrying, as has the monthly podcast rankings.
I'm a bit dissapointed in these numbers...I can understand the weak Q3 but management guided at the time that they were already seeing much stronger indications for Q4...and many other consumer related trading updates have bourne out stronger Q4's. We are markedly down on 4Q21...although to be fair we don't possess Morbid which perhaps makes ex-Morbid growth still strong.
It's tough...but cash is up and they are managing the company well. Winds just are not with us at the moment.
Cheers for this Boom....really interesting to see this and encouraging. I for one think the Q4 numbers could be quite good...I think if they can do a beat on Q421, then we really will see a substantial run on this thing over the next month / two...definitely tempted today to top up for the results on Monday as some good news flow behind us now.
The news about renewals and new content is really big. Tim Dillon show is one of the really big boys and we have a number of others.
Odd timing for Finncap note...the fact they have updated today and retained targets etc in advance of Monday is quite peculiar. Should never read into stuff too much...but feels very positive to me (almost like they know Q4) has been strong.
Simon....also standing on the sidelines here for a while now and am feeling like this is one of best value opps on market (when it was 1.20!)...at this price it seems a steal. Is there something we don't know? It's been drifting down but today has fallen off a cliff....I'm always nervous when you see a big drop on no public news. Please others chime in?
Certainly been completely bizzare Pompal...I was thinking on day of results we'd see a rebound from yesterday onwards instead...like happened with CNIC recently (the other absolute star performer on AIM). But no...down down down.
Like you though my vision has shifted....if Mr Market wants to **** around then I'd rather they just took us down to sub 2 quid....in the future it will prove to be the closest thing to helicoper money....a star performer being bought for pennies. Will just keep ploughing more in while we have this golden opp price discrepancy...
Keep in mind also....we had something similar with Cnic a few months ago - delivered probably the strongest set of AIM / LSE results all year and went down like 15%. These market makers etc want your shares and expect retail investors to be short-termist and sellout easily off the back off the SP not responding. CNIC from the day after went on a run of +30-40%. Be patient and take your comfort from the numbers.
Not sure what to say to co-dissapointed shareholders this morning...I woke up late having been told that this update was coming on the 23rd. I'd actually expected the results to be weak given the environment and was concerned after reading across from Darktrace. But no...this exceptional company delivered record results amidst the worst environment since 08 meltdown.
I'm not sure what they need to do / are expected to conjure up. Absolutely continent wide mispricing here, along with centralnic. I can only look at bright side...the longer these kind of stellar future NASDAQ darlings stay woefully undervalued, the longer it provides private investors to load up. Probably the only positive (alongside these unbelievable numbers) that I can take from today.
Stay strong!!
Thesoundman....hitting the nail on the head very succinctly there. Key part being if you believe fair value is 600....even at that price which is a steal you can make good money here. A good trading update will have this back to 7-8 quid (the last update was their worst (although I was super impressed how they managed that very tough quarter and it probably surprised positively just a little - I was expecting sub 15mm in revenue) and we were up to 7 quid in short order. If their commentary around Q3 being the worst and signs of improvement in October having led to a relatively strong Q4, then we could go much higher. On top of that, never has this looked so primed for an offer. Upside > huge; downside > limited in my view from here.
Been an utterly abysmal time for holders here...I sold quite a lot when it reached 7 quid so for once have actually been able to make some money trading it. But yes hereshopin....it is incredible to me that some of the utter rubbish out there has been rallying +70% with terrible financial profiles and this solid company has literally remained at 4 quid in the middle of this huge rally. Utterly bizzare....can only prey we have a good Q4 update. Unfortunately...I do think it will be hard for them to post anything majorly strong in Q4, but lets wait and see. A positive surprise would see us jump strongly no doubt...
I'm very tempted to move the money I've made from other stuff over past few months into this and give it another go (having thought c.9 quid was good value last time in the summer!!!!)...I think if one is patient, Boom at these levels will be a huge bagger in the long run. Just don't expect overnight results would be my advice to myself!
I've just confirmed with company - 23rd January. Funny as well the language used 'we are much looking forward to sharing our results with shareholders on the 23rd' - don't want to be a spiv and read too much into stuff but that to me sounds like a very positive tone...
Has anyone at all heard anything re trading update date? They provided one 10/11th January last year so obviously due any minute....
Been a while since posting here - we were back in the mid-1.20s and had the fall post the most incredible Q3 results on AIM.
Really exciting time for investors here - I must admit...I was actually quite negative about Ben leaving and the pause in acquisitions/returning of cash. I realise it what short-term Mr Market wants...but I genuinely believed that Ben was going to deliver more 'jam tomorrow'. Anyway...comforted by the fact that apparently Max has driven this (I am meeting him by chance next week...so will enquire more)...he knows more than me about 10+ baggers so happy to put my faith in him.
They generate so much cash anyway, I don't think they need to completely pause acquisitions...will just be balanced with buybacks. Assuming the lack of SP reaction in previous quarters has been a mixture of the company not returning cash and also the fact they have not been full-year results - one would think that the FY update coming up with a buyback programme now in place...we should see a more sensible response.
Crazy to still be looking around at so many rubbish companies at terrible valuations rocketing 100+% over the past month during the rally...we should be at 2.50 minimum and even then we would still be ridiculously undervalued. GLA.
cheers rivaldo...did you attend the event? I can't find online to re watch
Yeah agreed. Honestly oogleflugal....almost funny that SMT were focused on google and apple...and yet here we are sitting on a business which has unique marketing capabilities with the use of no third party cookies...something that is now a primary focus of both apple and google.
I for one believe that we are sitting on an investment here which could be a future nasdaq darling. Really excited by it...
if anything convinces me the market is virtually rigged by the big boys....this is an example.
Just goes to to show your accounting / corporate finance knowledge doesn't it....FCF is cash from operations minus capex...overall cash down because of acquisitions. Something that is good for the business...
If you want to invest in businesses that don't grow and base your decisions on non-operating FX charges, be my guest. But it doesn't seem like a great strategy to ignore businesses that boom their core operations.
DaddyAIM...exactly what I said all of yesterday - it is a purely non-operational potential liability which could just as easily swing into a gain in 1 day. I care far more about what FCF the business actually generates from its core operations than an FX trade which most businesses with global revenues will use to hedge FX risk....astounding that some people will ignore the unmatched organic growth, high margins, massive CFO and FCF, limited capex and scalability...the list goes on.
just one thing, where are you saying a 30.5mm FX charge?