Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I said FCF is whats relevant....exactly what Buffet said is sole fundamental driver of value...I repeated it like 5 times in the comment. FREE CASH FLOW - just to be clear, something which CNIC print like the Germany hyperinflation.
Very very nice to see Slater topping up...perhaps taking advantage of these RIDICULOUS levels we are at...wouldn't surprise me as the son of famous small cap growth investor, Jim Slater. His book, the Zulu principle...almost defines CNIC down to the tee. And the Slater's don't look for 5 baggers....invest with an aim to find the 100 baggers of the future.
It's a great testimony to the opportunity here who we have as shareholders....Kestrel, Herald and Slater...very different to the usual large institutional who I would pay absolutely no attention to...all boring and undifferentiated. However, the three in cnic are all very small sub sector specialists who look for real asymetric risk-reward on the upside and have a good record of delivering...particularly Herald.
Cannot believe we are down at these levels...but a god given gift for those with cash on hand.
Sorry Monty but you are entirely focused on the wrong thing here....its FCF which drives value...and CNIC is almost unbeatable in that regard. Their accounting loss is from my standpoint entirely meaningless and driven by different tax jurisdictions/intangibles amort. etc etc. FCF and cash generation is what drives a DCF and the only real measure of value creation. If you want to pick your investments by looking at non-cash measures, go ahead, but it will be a pretty futile way to pick winners.
some absolutely monster sells been going through today...maybe we are finally getting some clearance? it is crazy to think some fund manager thinks that this thing isn't demonstrating exceptional value....very odd
Painful to have stood on the sidelines since the lows on this one...amazing well done to holders. Great little company.
Really is so intriguing this...we are either looking at a potential short term bagger opportunity or a horror story...really hard to tell which...but all the numbers from company we have so far tell us all is fine. Perplexing.
Interesting choice of words also...'materially'...the board and institutions aren't looking for 50p higher here....they see the value here is north of 5 quid.
hats off to the board here....good to know that this isn't some stitch up. Would love to be fly on wall with company's call to slater - the son of jim slater who wrote the Zulu Principle. He would have told them where to stick it...and clearly others did also.
Very good news and I'm buying back in today.
hahaha...yes drivel...couldn't make head nor tail...
out of interest daddyAIM...do you have a personal view on why SP is reacting like this to continued exceptional news? im not so fussed as long term and patient with this multi-bagger....but is still extremely odd to have days like today over and over...
Haha apologies I didn't mean to snap...probably a little irritable given the SP performance today. However, we are not in a Kape position here with a dodgy shareholder structure. Royde will be in this for the long haul no matter what the short term movements are...and Slater and Herald go for multi multi baggers. And very funny...Zulu principle is basis of most of my decisions as well...feels like the book is written for CNIC (particularly the follow up book he wrote - Zulu principle for growing companies). Jim's son who runs Slater investments will be following his father's ethos here: shareholders of fast growing companies need to stick it out, be very patient, and let the rewards flow when they do. Herald run by Katie Potts will also see the value here.
Jim Slater didn't make his millions and millions by being impatient. This business has got the equivalent of a rocket launchpad underneath it and it will come good....struggle to see how they don't get to a billion in revenues this year. Company confirmed that first two months have been dynamite.
Well that clearly won't happen will it...Royde isn't holding 23% to sell out for a small premium - neither is Slater Investments (son of high growth investor Jim Slater) and Herald...
I've stopped thinking about EVR as just too depressing....got my private equity bonus (im junior level) and invested it all a week after getting it into EVR. Lost it all and had to take on tons of debt last year to get through living in London etc.
It is truly corruption at the highest level what has happened here. Saddens me so much to read stories of even more money being put into this for childrens futures etc. I was doing it so I could pay off my mums mortgage and pay for my wedding...
People need to seriously have a think today about what the valuation metrics are now for this...the 4.5x FY24 EBITDA is not really realistic but that is on the most conservative of forecasts by Zeus who even admit they are expecting upgrades....
We are now really looking at a company who could do a billion in revenues this year...if they have a good 23 and 24, we could realistically be talking about being able to buy this company on 3x FY24 EBITDA. It is completely crazy...and it is being completely missed by everyone!!!!
that is a very very insightful view and comment....very very interesting and think there could be a lot to it.
It certainly feels that way. For those who are really into this stock and who like detail...I have done a further deep dive into the online marketing segment recently and the Group's acquisition record. Can post on here if people would like. The acquisition record is flawless...they paid 4x EBITDA for team internet and gave grown that business at over 50% CAGR since. The OM opportunity is huge...and really interesting to look at CNIC's performance vs. their only other direct competitors (Perion Network and System1)...both of them suffered last year while PubTONIC just went through the roof. Honestly if you want my opinion...I don't think a lot of investors really understand CNIC...and not just ones who are not invested. Go and read Herald's annual report or Slater investments...they just view CNIC as a domain name business and other internet services...effectively missing out the multi-billion dollar potential OM side which I think unless you really go and deep dive into, it's hard to know what CNIC are doing. I know quite a few institutional investors and a lot of them will not really go that deep...especially like a Herald or Slater who bought CNIC long before they transformed themselves into this much bigger beast. Even before I'd deep dived...I kind of just said in my head 'they are monetising websites with traffic without use of cookies'...but the OM side much more than that - you have the domain name monetisation which they are world market leader in, PubTONIC (the online marketing without use of third party cookies) and then other add on businesses like Codewise. Even just a cursory glance at VGL and just how big that business is in terms of scale...has like 4x the annual visitors vs. moneysupermarket. It really is insane that they paid 6x earnings for that business when you think they are able to channel those 300mm annual visitors through the CNIC OM segment...its crazy...and it is being completely missed by the market.
There is big big potential here...almost difficult to get ones head around the kind of potential on offer at these levels. I genuinely think that this is one of those stocks that could be wealth transforming...as long as its not bought out on cheap. I think unlikely given Royde though...hopefully he sees the value in this thing...
Haha I like your style!!!!! Very true!!!!
Hive....many thanks for this response. I actually think you are pretty spot on with all your observations and we are on the same page...and I very much take your point re the value point...with OTM just being some other tool for agents, it really is just an extra cost at the moment.
As Deborah Meaden would say - 'I won't be investing!'
Absolutely chuckling about this guy Repression who apparently sold out yesterday because of a 0.2% drop which he saw as 'extremely concerning' pre results...was going to message back yesterday saying good luck investing like that and making money over the long term but thought better of it.
Anyway...what a strange way to look at things...so did you sell out in the end of stay with us? You said you had sold...