Member Info for ggrantsu

I'll never get my head around how there can be so few comments on such an undervalued share...it's insane!!!

Very out of the blue the chairman buying today....he hasn't been quick to in the past given his net wealth. Perhaps something brewing...

Very positive given where the share price is currently on 5x earnings...market was pricing in total collapse. This is potentially one of the most wild valuations for such a cash generating machines in the market right now. Makes no sense.

Ragnar....you put it brilliantly. The extent of the absolute slash downs being given to names who miss targets is just absolutely brutal. BRUTAL. A lot of these AIM names are cheap and then you'll see it down another 30% in a day - absolutely relentless market to be operating within.

Exactly the same here....was thinking in all honesty it would be a serious cut to sub 100 given the frantic news. Excellent to see how its performing...I guess the fact is, its the London to Birmingham leg that counts for Kier. And there is a lot of other exciting work outside of HS2 anyway.

It's a complex set of numbers to be honest....and yes it looks like numbers from Cenkos (now Cavendish) have been cut materially...

The definition of income / adjusted income has always been odd for VL...Singer vs. Cenkos always had different numbers and it looks like Cavendish are using another set now. Don't quite get it. Did anyone go to the presentation?

The best comment in Q&A was from CEO: 'we are miles away from breaching a covenant...'

what planet is he on?! it is tightening at the end of this quarter!!!!!!!!!!!!! one of the most shocking management teams ive ever seen. and he sold of course at 3.20!!!!!!

Apparently the CMD today was about as sharp and high quality as there has been at the LSE. Management were said to have communicated beautifully and finally given the kind of detail on each sub-segment that was lacking before...

Very very chuffed for the management team; Michael seems like an uber nice guy who just adores running the company - apparently today he was just grinning like a Cheshire cat with proudness.

Really is a great little story here and I'm not only wishing the team the best, but holding onto my significant holding. You can never be anecdotal in terms of conclusions but the sense I got was that the excitement of the management team goes a long way to showing that things are good here...go on TIG!

Hey tobins….what is the ‘NT update’ you reference?

Now in here with you Craig...at what seems like a price that is too good to be true...I've bought not at 30% higher but surprisingly at an even bigger discount. The market has clearly not liked today...and our question now is what is it expecting /seeing here that we are not? It's clearly not liking something in a very big way...

Was surprised that even deposits increased...will that continue as rates have gone even higher since the end of June? Is that impairment truly a one-off? Big questions, but I think worth a starter position as things stand.

Very good results - the buyback of course being key.

Shame they ever went down the Liquinet road but hey ho. It's a grossly misvalued business...literally no other way of describing it. What are we, 3x EBITDA? Mad.

Look pretty decent to me...if not up 30% straight away I will hope to take a position. Difficult to know what reaction will be like given what headlines look like with the large one impairment which like it or not, crushes this years statutory earnings. But this doesn't look like it should be 0,3x BV...

Other peoples thoughts?

I just cannot understand how the company isn't launching buybacks right now....it is truly insane. Really getting on my nerves - if only because they were the ones who suggested them at trading update when we were almost 20% higher. With FCF yields of 15%, they can well afford it.

Its a fair assumption to make...and frankly I could see this up 30% tomorrow on relatively good news. I just don't know because of course this is a very complex investment which requires knowledge of their book and deposit health. It could be a fantastic bet and one I've now been considering for months and do kind of regret not betting a little on tomorrow...

Some smart investors like Ennismore have bet big here...definately not a fools errand, just felt to me like there was some macro risk - things have got quite a bit worse over the last few months so their outlook is also key tomorrow.

Wishing holders the best of luck and will be watching keenly! It was a choice between Secure Trust, One Savings Bank and TP ICAP - in the end felt like with TP ICAP you should have the greatest benefit with interest rate volatility and its also incredibly cheap (albeit in a different way to the banks)...will be quite interesting to see how all 3 fare in the morning.

It’s a great write up yes….but punting on this is a huge macro risk…I’ve been looking for a long while now and just cannot take the plunge. It’s unsecured lending in what is looking like a more and more pessismistic backdrop. A poster yesterday hit the nail on the head highlighting the deposit risk as well…it’s quite significant. Why leave money in secure trust when you can go to someone risk free or government and her higher rates?! It doesn’t make sense and there is a real risk of outflows alongside all the unsecured credit impairment risk…

I’m not trying to be negative….this could be a superb investment. Just feel like it’s too risky as of right now and the Midas touch doesn’t exactly delve into those clear risks!!

Great to have you both on board on chat group! Definately a crazy one this given how sizeable it is and how little people seem to be following it. Always good to have Slater as a big co holder.

Soundman - I have to say, in terms of upside, I think its two different worlds. S4 in my opinion still looks super expensive...people talk about CFO and earnings multiples - but the company's FCF is absolute garbage, its much slower top line growth and lower margin. Definately one where people are basically saying its good because of Sorrell. Just my opinion but do not understand it at all.

Excellent anyway we are all on board here. I think at the very least we should easily be 2x todays current price - that would be a fair valuation. Upside from that point is very exciting.

Superb analysis here Agricore...very very good.

I honestly cannot believe where the SP is here....topped up significantly last week believing it is a complete gift at these levels. such a great long term story here...almost hope it will stay low to allow us all to take advantage of it for the next 6 months.

very much appreciated those back of hand calculations you've done below - as you say, the key here is this ballooning of the order book.

Ha dissipline...you twits over at S4 have well and truly shafted us here today ; ).

NFG clearly being lumped in with S4 after apparent recovery which we had going last week! not too worried...in fact I almost hope it keeps dropping...will have some spare funds to top up soon.

good example of different ceo's here - Tim Dyson vs. Sorrell. I know which one I think comes across as much more down to earth.

my view is NFG valuation is compounded by back of any good research. really needs a solid comprehensive initiation report done on it given the amount of individual businesses that make up the group now.

Not meaning to jump in and hijack here...but honestly think not seeing the wood from the trees a little with this. we have just gone through probably the worse half year of ad spend / consumer confidence in 15 years - much of the digital ad market has been posting profit warnings.

i'm not sure single digit organic growth on extremely tough comparables can just be brushed off as underwhelming performance. I for one was expecting sub 180mm in revenue this Q2 given the backdrop. I think some more relative perspective needs to be utilised here...

Plus - we have Microsoft Bing kicking off in Q3/4...that doesn't even seem to be getting factored in across the broker reports.

Hi Dissipline...great to hear from you. I literally know no one else talking about N15...so great to have someone else interested.

Almost cannot believe the games being played by MM's this morning....spread is like a 10mm micro cap stock in distress?? Any idea what could be causing them to do this in such an extreme way?? I honestly have never seen it before...I want to top up even more and plan to but believe I'll get an opp below 6.50 so i'm hanging around till it gets there...hopefully im not being too greedy.

on s4...we will have to agree to disagree...i do not like at all. it is being ramped by that pillock in twitter, baron. do not think it rivals N15 even remotely if honest, but happy to be proven wrong? it certainly is nowhere near as cheap.

This is a classic example of a ton of people following that guy baron on Twitter….this company always under delivers and guides way off the mark. Cash flow generation is poor….debt is high, and even top line growth just gets weaker and weaker.

Wonder if he will post about this today?? Only seems to post to talk about daily positive moves lol.