Member Info for Gallmat

Seems like the company is a bit complex.

Doing equity swaps on debt, could be alot going on here other than litigation

Interesting stock, I did not know about this one.

Won arbitration. Another one in Feb 2025 for circa 100m usd, then another in Dec 2025 for 500m usd.

These things are everywhere

I honestly don't think this is too good to be true, when dealing with the law things will always be uncertain, but the asset is clearly valuable.

When entering the trade my minimum hurdle was to make just 100pct. I hope for alot more here but even if I clear my hurdle I will be happy.

There will always be another story/stock/opportunity

I also think the chance is not huge, but it Is my last key worry.

Once they accept the process is in western Europe and we clear jurisdiction that I am finally in my best place.

I feel pretty good now, I just need this final step

Like I said I am not saying it is a high risk, but read the stats I sent.

There are probably many badly put together cases and like you I think ours is not one of them.

I am always open to negative situations

I don't think it is that simple. Cassius mining had theirs kicked back to the host country.

I never discount any scenario unless I have specific knowledge

Apologies is this is complicated and messy. In layman terms I think if we reach a trial it is nearly impossible we do not have a rerate because the bet at that stage is so good.

When I risk manage I consider the risk of not getting to the trial.

We are using uncitral rules, sadly they do not produce many stats but icsid do.

Around 65 pct are cases are decided by tribunal with 20pct or 13pct dismissed as they say they have no jurisdiction.

I am not saying there is a 13pct chance they refuse to hear the case but this is the only statistic I can find.

https://icsid.worldbank.org/resources/publications/icsid-caseload-statistics

The bash. The main risk I see here is that we have some jurisdiction issue and the panel say they do not need to proceed.

Once this is settled I feel pretty relaxed as the trial will flow and logic to me at least sees an award of at least what vsa has.

Anyway, remember not to bet the bank, money is made by staying in the game. Even a full house looses to a royal flush

I don't regard myself as an expert. But if you like maths consider this as a binomial tree.

The last node court award gives us maybe 400 with pr 0.5 and loss. So EV of 200.

The trade today is what is the probability of getting to that valuable node. Well I think we have more than a 90pct chance of getting to trial. So mode than 90pct chance of getting to a state with EV of 200.

I really think the key variable here is just the probability of a trial ( focusing on the win seems wierd to me).

Icsid have stats showing the vast majority of cases do not end early and go to trial. I think our lawyers would have analysed the arguments that would stop us proceeding. And for me common sense indicates there is something to discuss, history tells us at one point we were promised the license so that needs discussing.

Anyway I think we have a 95pct chance of proceeding to trial and when we do the expected value of that is maybe 200 or 10market cap

We all believe this will go up significantly.

The decision to hold or sell will be driven by your conviction so I always say DYOR

It's a non uk nanocap.

Happy to share once I take a position. But I am on the sidelines until I know how pat.l progresses.

It is just a diversification trade but much lower conviction than this

Everything for me will be data dependent. I also think there is at least one other 10x stock out there, however the timing on that one is not certain. At least with pat, we have an idea of the rerate date

My real view ( or hope) is that we can claim 2bn usd. De grey had a DFS for 6moz deposit. Ours 8m oz equivalent. At 1.5g ( vs 2g for us) at 1800 usd an oz ( vs 2600 currently) they had 2b usd value

The study also said using current prices doubled thier npv. Increasing grade 10pct e.g 1.5 to 1.65 increased npv 20pct

We can always claim any amount but what we get is the inportant amount. The circa 400m usdnto me feels like rock bottom.

Based on 4m oz ( just half of what is found) and 100 usd is for a kind of average project from a sample period before gold spiked ( 2000 tk 2600).

My view is at any Conservative calc we are undervalued, so I bought. Once the actual claim and more info comes I could reasses but it does not impact the buy decision today

The best guidance we have so far on claim size is probably not from the broker but the CEO.

The CEO in an interview with vsa capital stated it was at least as big as Greenx which was 1bn usd.

It is worth noting the CEO was a lecturer in mining valuation and his early roles were valuing gold mines. Given he could do the valuation himself and he is probably seeing the internal work I think less than 1bn usd is remote for the claim.

The less confirmed thing is that there is a chance that the claim might reference the current gold price so any calculation will be super economic.

The website in general could do with a good update. Adding links to broker notes, lcm etc.

Thx for chasing it.

Thx HT.

Not much longer now. Would have been lovely to be a bit further down the road with the case, but I am sure keeping quiet and allowing the auction to proceed was well worth the wait :)

2 weeks or 4 weeks is all the same. Once we know the expected trial date and amount we can all just chill.

Probably starting to chill is best now.

Yes we have funding to mid next year and that is after we soc will come out.

This is an illiquid stock and people will use the narrative to sell.

It's just a decision on how you want to play it.

Anyway DYOR. If you can make some money goof luck

If we go down to 7p or hopefully lower I will buy more.

The trading does make sense, but honestly I cannot be bothered for the sake of 1p. I am waiting for this to hit 20 to 30p.

Each to their own and really good luck to all nomatter how you play this.