RE: H5N1 human to human transmission?24 Feb 2023 16:29
Cont'd...:
"The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has also started Covid-like modelling for bird flu to be prepared should a person catch the virus in the UK and be able to pass it to another person. The models are mocking up what may happen in the event of human-to-human transmission. There is currently no evidence that the H5N1 avian influenza strain, which has killed hundreds of thousands of birds in Britain, can spread between mammals. A nationwide housing order has been in place since last November, mandating that all captive birds be kept inside, which has led to a decrease in infections. However, the UKHSA has now activated a new technical group to create modelling for a potential human outbreak of bird flu. Among its members are Prof Neil Ferguson, who was instrumental in the first Covid lockdown in 2020, and Prof Susan Hopkins, the UKHSA’s chief medical adviser. Dr Webby added that the current stockpile of candidate virus vaccines, which could be deployed into fully-fledged jab drives should the animal infection make the jump to spread among people, is also being assessed to see if it works against the currently dominant forms of bird flu. "
Evidence suggested that if the current strain of bird flu behind the avian pandemic did jump to people, then the existing stockpile would work well against it, even if it may take six months to create the updated jab.
Dr Webby said: “There has been a little bit of work looking at some of the serum collected from people who took part in vaccine trials to some of these earlier H5 clades. Several of those people actually worked quite well with some of the recently circulating viruses. “From a vaccine stockpile and response point of view, I think this is encouraging and suggests the human response to some of the vaccines does induce a broad immunity that cross-reacts with a lot of the clades we are seeing.” Dr Wenqing Zhang, the head of the WHO’s global influenza programme, said that there are almost 20 current H5 vaccines licensed for pandemic use, and the new one will add to this armoury.
The UKHSA is also looking into bird flu lateral flow tests, documents show, as well as investigating what is the best lab-based test to pick up the virus.
Modelling scenarios being drawn up
A source close to the matter told The Telegraph that a host of permutations are being drawn up, including a U-shaped severity curve, akin to seasonal flu; a Covid-like scenario where the oldest and most frail are more likely to die; and the possibility that it is dangerous to all people, like Spanish flu.
One of the scenarios being investigated by officials is if the virus is relatively mild, with an infection fatality rate of 0.25 per cent, similar to Covid.
The most severe hypothesis is if the virus is as deadly in people as the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, with a fatality rate of about 2.5 per cent, and a hospitalisation rate of one in 20. "
:Full article available in The Telegraph
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