Member Info for FrankyS1971

The facility wont get snatched as the leniency we are giving our customers will also get passed down the line from our lenders. What we do need to do is keep paying down debt at a good rate and keeping collections robust. We then need to get a more varied source of funding sorted for the future. This is financial plate spinning to stay alive and the noose is tightening but turnaround can still happen.

10% of all loans say since 2014. Then of those maybe 10% complain and of those we d payout X...god only know...a ppi style deadline would be helpful. Say a cut off by March?

Ok i buy that logic Vinson. The 2500 left in vreq involve guarantors stepping in. So what i m driving at is that the fresh complaints feom the past will unlikely come to.much as the loans got repaid which is what you sre saying...lots of false claims..but what i m saying is that depending on treatment and redress of gurantors from vreq..it opens up all complaints where a gurantor stepped in from the past...this will have massive impact as there would clearly be an affordability issue and hard for Amigo to argue otherwise. This is why we have delayed the payment and challenged/negotiated with FCA as once we commit to paying up we open pandoras box to the past.

Ok i buy that logic Vinson. The 2500 left in vreq involve guarantors stepping in. So what i m driving at is that the fresh complaints feom the past will unlikely come to.much as the loans got repaid which is what you sre saying...lots of false claims..but what i m saying is that depending on treatment and redress of gurantors from vreq..it opens up all complaints where a gurantor stepped in from the past...this will have massive impact as there would clearly be an affordability issue and hard for Amigo to argue otherwise.

Vinson sorry but you are wrong. And i m bot deramping as in above head on this one. The 2.5 claims are within the vreq. There are now many many more claims on top to deal with generated by the CMC s this is obvious as "volumes remain high". They have already dealt with the backlog and focused on keeping head above water with the case loads coming in. If the 2.5 k involving claims with guarantors goes the wtong way with FCA we are open to a world of systemic debts from the past.

This is an educated guess around complaints but ...if the vreq was containing complaints from Nov 2018 around afordability and they are still gettimg complaints from before then which seems certain. Then those loans got paid off making it harder for complainants to prove they couodnt afford it. So fewer will win. The 2500 left from vreq involved a guarantor so dependimg on their treatment and payout will determine our survival and whether its systemic. All legacy complaints that led to guarantor payments have grounds to suggest that affordability was a clear problem. The battle right now is to work with the FCA and hope that the treatment and payout involving gurantors doesnt open up floodgates to the backlog of new legacy complaints that could overwhelm us. I think i have hit on the right thing here.

I bought in genuinely saying it would take 9-12 months to fix so was always pragmatic...just have the concern over complaints volumes and FCA surprises still out there...its s%it or bust so i ll be holding..

Its not a view pal i have 1.2m shares. I want to provoke deeper insight by asking tough questions. And here is another very good one. The provision has gone up and in the same breath GJ is talking about the provisions being under review and an announcement being made by end of NOV. So we ve just seen it go up and hes alluding to it going up again? Is that correct or am i missing something?..

We re all in the dark because we don t know the complaint volumes outside of the vreq. Looking.at the FCA numbers up until June, there were something like 1600 complaints as a guesstimate...so those numbers would have to go up 10 fold and stay at that level for a significant period.to sink us. I personally think this may effectively be a systemic issue though, that never goes away despite their best assurances that it was only from Nov 2018. They say its not systemic but....if we take the 2500 remaining complaints along with total finger in the air, another 10000-15000 odd...this will take until the New Year to get on top of...get the book ammortised conserve cash regroup then lend. Thats if its even viable after the FCA ruling and fine which may well make this type of loan a dead duck.

140m in cash. Sorry to be dumb as i have a day job but are the provisions in a seperate pot?

We don t know the position in terms of complaints whatsoever mate. We know thr complaints that were part of the vreq but not all the others seperate to that as volumes remain high. There will be more to dish out and i suspect 150m aint enough. So again my question is given the ammortisation of loan book is that enough to keep going as complaints will just keep rolling in. We are effectively in run off if we re not lending.

This is the concern...the vreq is not the sum total of complaints so they are still landing at a continued high volume. How accurate or stable is the 150m provision. I just think its rope a dope and this will go up again. The business is very nearly in a pure play "run off" position and i m thinking 7p is better than 0p. I won t sell in hope that the accounts show a stabilisation in complaints plus existing collections going well under circumstances.

Qs in my mind - what level of of complaints are we seeing outside the 25000 or so in the Vreq? What is the limit of provision that would allow us to continue as a going concern? Will ammorisation of loan book plus worst case complaints scenario allow us to service the debt with our existing facility? Anyone got the answers to that?-)//

I m not sure my 1.21m shares will get to 10p in a hurry. Reading between the lines if complaints takes us beyond the existing provision again we re a bit stuffed. Unless collections is going swimmingly well..

Dead man walking Mark?

Marathon AM looking to sell down to zero % holding. Oh dear..2p or under coming.

So in other words the future of the business is outside of its control and in the hands of lenders. End of.

I agree caravan...i m being a sh:tbag to the rampers bacause its kind of deserved. The loans need to go out to support ammortisation of book so they dont default. They can t raise funds without fca finality and worse they don t have full guidance yet so current loans may have ? Over governance too storing up more problems. Business in a horrid place with Covid too. Makes me appreciate how bad a place Amigo is also in, but the cash reserves will likely save our bacon.

Yeah man lending will be balistic and theres no wazyzzz this ll stay below 10p by christmas. Multi bagger. Haha

Of course mate of course lolz