Member Info for frackme

I think there may be a little confusion building here. Falcon has 30 days to exercise it's ROFR not 30 days to strike a deal. All the need to have is a heads of terms/ letter of intent/ term sheet depending on where in the world you are from. I think 30 days is plenty of time for one of the big gas players or someone with deep pockets to get comfortable with the Tambo deal and spend a bit of time looking at the Falcon data room on that drills and mapping done to date. If falcon can't get to heads of terms within that 30 days then exercising their right of first refusal is pointless as without at least commercial intent from a genuine mark (like a big gas players) to match of better the deal the pre emptive rights lapse and fall away. However if they get a letter of intent within that 30 days then unless the contract stipulates differently they'll be afforded the same timeframe as Tambo would get to tip up the deal and get it signed. And if Falcon can't get an LOI within 30 days well then the market and the money that talks doesn't think that the origin deal is as bad as some people on this forum.

Philip has his work cut out for him but certainly not impossible if others in the gas game feel the potential is there and that the green agenda in Oz isn't a macro risk for the beetaloo

For me the single biggest indicator that POQ is up the whole pie and not afraid of a bar brawl was the late afternoon RNS on the bank holiday.

99% of RNS releases are first thing very rare to see a late one but it showed us two things

1. At the minimum Philip is no dummy as it protected the share price brilliantly. We were always going to see an over reaction from the hair trigger holders (act now assess later) but by reminding the market that FOG hold the Right of First refusal (ROFR) or pre emptive rights puts us squarely in the driving seat and protected the share price brilliantly. Took 24 hours for the market to figure out what this board had worked out already but thankfully the share price corrected.

and 2 there wasn't any smokey back room deals at play because that is not the move to pull if you want to grease a deal through.

I think Philip has his guns up and will be looking to be the master of his own fate. It may still involve Tambo and BS but it will be on terms that work for him.

I don't think he'll go for a buy out now as that will go down as a professional loss for him and the man has pride.

Lucky you Oleo, I got rinsed by Chariot but thankfully it was only profits made from a junior partner (much like FOG) Lansdowne oil and gas that I invested in Chariot. And I'm glad to hear of the success for Namibia and the companies, it seems I was on the cutting edge as opposed to were you want to be on the leading edge. Doff of the cap to you and your fortune Oleo.

totally agree with your assessment of FOG's negotiation strength wetwater

Marcia Mello, that name gives me the shivers. I was a fan of his until I followed him into Chariot oil and gas about 15 years ago..... His research is all based on the shared geology with Brazil...

Though I 100% agree that the developing world is a far safer play... Australia are super developed and can afford to look at renewables as an energy alternative but the developing world like Namibia hasn't got that luxury or choice.... But you have to stomach the corruption and chances of a government minister suddenly realising he actually owns the acreage you just proved

Sorry Oleo,

I'm just talking about the falcon / origin deal. Not the whole beetaloo. Thought we were discussing the impending deal.... As an aside we know Mr Riddle has been in the basin for years and I'll be honest I don't know much about Sheffield but I wouldn't personally like to get into business with Mr Riddle. Some of his press releases over the years have a serious wiff of car sales man to them. His presence at the heart of this deal is what worries me the most

I can see your point Oleo, But I'd temper that slightly as the pre-emptive rights are a wild card that could literally reverse that statement entirely. Your statement is accurate if FOG don't have the pre-emptive rights and the origin deal completes but until then all Tambo have is a plan and nothing else.

currently FOG have 22.5% with the option to own 100% if they can get a deal done with origin on the same of better terms.

This is long form over. In fact it's only starting.

But I take your point and I do think Tambo are a good fit for this project.

on some more positive news. the share price rallied back to 8.35p today. not far from where it crashed. Circa 8.65p.
depending on how much info is shared by FOG, Tambo and BS in the public forum over the coming days the share price could resemble a heart monitor by the end of the 30 days.

Personally my favorite outcome would be if we managed to get carried by Tambo for the next two wells and 50% of the 10 well pre production phase with the option to fund the other 50% of that phase by way of a small royalty assignment of say 1-3%. keeping our 17m in the bank, and getting us through the next pre-production 10 well stage without the immediate requirement to raise cash. If the next two wells are at commercial flow rates and we move to the pre-production 10 well stage, by the end of that phase we'll be able to raise any future cash easily if the numbers stack up as we are talking production stage then.

Tambo and Sheffield have the motivation and cash to get this moving and if we can keep them in the boat without exposing ourselves to being slaughtered or sold for pennies in the coming months or years due to a lack of ability to raise future cash during the proving stage that would be ideal because we all just get our heads down and get moving.

Rolling the dice with a total change of ownership to someone like Santos is as risky because they too could shake us out during the proving stage and we don't know if they would be as motivated to get drilling.

The key for whatever route Philip and BOD agree to take is on is to make sure it gets us through the proving commerciality stage funded or with a fairly irrevocable option for funding, even if we need to give away some future value like a small royalty payment to remain at the casino table.

We all know what failure will look like. It will be be FOG being bought out against our will for 30p or lower in next few months or years. If you have been in this company for 17 years or close to it please adjust that 30p figure accordingly.

Falcon trading well on the TSX this evening. Hit lows of 10 cent but is back to 13-14 now. 30-40% return in one day ain't bad if you had the nerve.

Pre emptive rights give Falcon a lot more control than some might think. They can do a deal with Santos and rug pull on Sheffield leaving him with his 8% stake in Falcon and no friends on the inside or they can do a deal with Sheffield now to ensure they are funded through to production not to topple the deal and cut him out or they can sell at a 2 or 3 time multiple on the recent share price... I don't think that is the most likely though as origin have given them far better value for far less and given we haven't even proved commerciality and you can't rule out a fracking ban in the next 10 years if Gov's change it would be madness.

I think Philip and the board need to get proactive and have a few options on the table at the end of the notice period.

Last word from me in a while hopefully. But I reckon that RNS from Falcon yesterday was a sign in the shop window. Looking for a white knight partner. Players like Santos know the potential and the terrain and that RNS says to any interested party.

Call us, we're open to exploring our options with others partners.

If nothing happens in 30 days it means no one was interested. If their is internet POQ won't have to lift the phone

Yeah it's a very tricky call for Falcon to make.... If it turns hostile with Sheffield Falcon have a cuckoo in the nest with 10m shares. Not saying for a second that Sheffield planned it this way but if Falcon shop around for a white knight in the next 30 days and he gets wind of it and if they don't succeed then he has 78% with 10% of falcon... He could then start dumping shares and crash the price to say 40m market cap then so a deal at 50m to buy it all. His 10m falcon investment goes to 5m but he now only has to pay 50m for the last 22% instead of 80 or 100m at recent prices saving him 30-50m less the 5m = 25m-45m... Tidy day at the office.

Don't for a second believe that is his intention but if things turn sour and Falcon don't succeed in securing the 77.5% then that could be a reality. So you might argue it's better for Falcon to stay put and hope we can raise the cash over the coming years to stay in the game as a junior partner.

"Beetaloo interest is c14x lower than the implied valuation as per Falcon’s US$10m private placement in March, and therefore appears to be a cut-rate sale."

Yeah if you are a novice investor and don't assign any value to the 5.5% royalties and irrevocable right to buy gas at serious levels for 10 years from 2025. The cash of 60m and carry costs of 80m are the distraction on this deal. The real value is the royalties and right to purchase.

I often wonder how these business analysts / commentators get any eye balls which appalling research like that.

The boardroom at Falcon will be a sombre place today... Now the first thing on our agenda for our EGM....therapy for all the board members before we decide what to do in this 30 day window.

No need to panic though... That 25% was done on less than £100k volume.... There will be ups and downs and it doesn't matter at all. Only thing that matters is we stay alive and cash funded till this puppy is commercial. I'd say we'll make 10% of that back before close.

Looks like our North American friends have a bit more fight in them than we do. 25% fall is a bit of an overaction to what ultimately might be great news. Ie moving to production faster.

Hopefully some people get some good value in the Falcon end of summer sale today

I note from the Tambo transaction pdf release that the two amungee wells are expected to be spudded in October now.

What an unbelievable twist in the tail. This is honestly the closest real world boardroom skirmish I've seen that compares to the business drama's like suits that you see on TV.

It's moments like this that will test PO'Q's mettle.

Does he trust the soothing reassurances of a 10% stakeholder (Sheffield) and do nothing hoping that they don't try and divert any serious future investment away from Falcon.
as the main operator and backer a quiet word in the ear of a future investor could go a long way..."nah don't invest in Falcon put your money with us....they are dying on the vine and are cash starved, they might not even be able to fund their next phase and we can pick them up for pennies on the pound .take it from me I made the mistake of putting 10m in there....it'll only be worth 1m max when this is all over.. Get into a safe port here with us and let's get rich together"

Or does he go the route that involves him being dragged through the bush backwards, potentially falling out with his cash life line (Sheffield), but if he pulls it off, he'll singlehandedly put falcon in the driving seat. With Origin only wanting 60m and carrying costs from 1st July and 5% royalties (which let's face it are the jewel in the crown of this deal) PO'Q could even look to secure an additional sweetener of extra carry costs or another 50m or so to go towards falcons portion of the next series of drills from a potential suiter like Santos.

Sheffield and the boys in getting this sweet deal may be their own executioners as the pre emptive rights allow Falcon see the deal and go to market to shop it around and at another 50m for Falcon it's still value for someone like Santos.

Out of interest while 5% royalties on all future revenue sounds small that might be a master stroke. What is the typical profit margin on a gas play like this. If it's 10% then 5% of revenue is 50% of future profits while derisking the green agenda and taking their future capital spend off the table . Even at 25% profit margin 5% royalties on revenue is 20% of the profit.

The guys at Falcon will need to think like grandmasters to navigate the next 30 days or so.

Are those pre-emptive rights from announcement of a potential deal or do they have to get to the contract to completion stage before the 30 days kick in?

Good luck all. I'm a Falcon shareholder and can't believe I got this free roller coaster ride with my shares...for the record I hate roller coasters

Hey all,

I can see some jaded people on here who have been on this rollercoaster for the last ten years or so. At that kind of timeline it can become very hard to see the wood from the trees and you can entrench into the attitude that nothing will ever change.

but as a relative newcomer to this stock (purchased my first block in 2021 and have been only adding since) I think it's lining up to be a serious opportunity stock. The speed that the board has attracted serious players in the last year and the breadth and depth of the experience is a huge validation of the company, the strategy and the potential.

There is no doubt there is gas there, it's just a question of proving the fields continuity and commerciality. As far boom bust stocks go I think this one is seriously weighted to the upside but as someone who has had his fingers burnt before, the downside is always there in the form of geology, political will, commercial raiders taking over the boat too early and chucking the investors who have funded the risk out before they can claim their 10 bagger.

Having said all that I think Philip is a very impressive CEO who has positioned the company well to navigate the next few years to maximize that value for all the original investors on here. Bringing Bryan Sheffield on board not only brings his experience to the table but also takes 9% of the company off the playing field making it harder for a corporate raider to rug pull this out from under the longtime investors who deserve to drink from the frothy goblet of success.

Best of luck to all involved, I hope this company has it's Ronseal moment and does exactly what is says on the tin.

As a little aside can someone please let me know how the LSE website classifies a trade as a sell or a buy? is it based solely on who initiated the trade first or it it based on where the strike price lands between the bid and the ask. Obviously every trade is a buy and a sell but it's always intrigued me seeing them classified as one or the other.

Good luck all.