Member Info for frackme

5% bounce for Tamboran today. That feels like a good omen for the incoming flow rates.

Wish that where true,

If you want to try and understand how complicated extrapolating flow rates from satellite images check out this link.

That pseudo science in that posts sounds great but in reality trying to guess flare sizes by measuring diameters of low quality satellite shots is as effective as punching smoke.

If that was that easy to identify flow rates then we'd have seen serious volume on the latest satellite imagery on this drill and every other drill with a decent diameter flare.

https://www.mdpi.com/2313-433X/9/8/152

Bank holiday in US. Is it a bank holiday in UK?

Main factor in looking at a flare is height and a satellite tells you f all on the front unfortunately. The lads working the site will have a good idea and word will trickle out and you'll see the share price moving up or down based on that when the 30 day starts. Those 30 day results are the worst kept secret as word always makes it's way back to the bigger investors from lads on the ground

They are probably just burning off the soak clean up. Announcement by Tamboran on that 14th will likely be the start of the 30 day flow testing.

Something is happening today

Yeah but that was after flow rates. So it's clean up and flow then 6 month soak or clean up and soak for 6 weeks then flow and then a 6 month soak.

Have they started flowing yet? No flare means flow hasn't started. They aren't capturing gas for flow right? . 1st of May is less than 30 days away so can't have 30 day flow rates by then if they haven't started. The comms from Tamboran have been rubbish. Part of me things the flow rates on that clean up might not have been up to scratch so they are repairing that casing on the other well while they let it soak and that way they can test the wells back to back and limit damage if first well doesn't deliver great flow rates. As always the information vacuum let's muppets like me speculate on different scenarios. I should have learned by now just to wait and watch. Good luck all

Not ad expert on reading satellite images of flares but my understanding which to be fair is limited is that the height of the flare is actually much more important than the diameter, the height will be next to impossible to gauge from a grainy satellite picture. Think of a garden hose shooting a really strong jet of water straight up versus the same hose putting out far less water when constricted but getting a much wider spray.

I'd say they are on photo lockdown at the pad and I'd say they might do an RNS when they start the flow testing. I think they did last time so they could still be in clean out mode. I'm fairly hopeful that the rates will be decent. the geology seems to be consistent so it's just landing on the right formula to maximise the flow rates at this stage. exciting times all.

Contrary to how fat you might think people in the east are. They are actually below global weight averages. ;p

Https://edition.pagesuite.com/popovers/dynamic_article_popover.aspx?artguid=2779d09e-1892-4108-a266-bdb49bdbbbee

I thought the wells had to be parallel to do zipper fracking. My understanding was when you have two parallel wells you can stage the stages in an alternative pattern whereby the first well has a stage and where it then has a space the second well that is parallel has a stage so the stages look like a zipper. Not 100% but didn't the two drills go off in different directions. The DSU's seem to indicate they did as a parallel well wouldn't trigger a DSU as it's in the original catchment area. Only speculation based on my understanding of the drills to date though

No Falcon doesn't need any permission to sell any of it's acerage. Not 100% sure if the DSY arrangement is transferable though as that might have been exclusive to current ownership structure and might fall away if a major buys. Haven't seen that contract.

Falcon owned the 100% originally and farmed out to origin and retained rights of first refusal which Tamboran or Daly waters don't have. Our ownership is less restricted

Boom bust eh???

Looks like this analyst has put all his eggs into the pessimistic basket. Don't love their use of WHEN instead of IF.

So far all holes drilled last year and this year have given good gas shows and the adjusted shorty rates are good. I'm more hopeful than that analyst that we'll get good rates.

We can expect that WHEN Shenandoah South 2H and 4H do not deliver commercial shale gas production rates, the Beetaloo shale gas will be considered dead for a long time.

I honestly think this is one of the best short term and long term stock you could invest in if you think on the balance of probabilities that the next two wells hit Permian basin levels of gas flows.

What we know is that there is a demand and need for gas for the next 30 years minimum. We also know the gas in the beetaloo is low carbon gas another major benefit.

We also know that the last well that was only a shorty drilled nearby showed a very similar adjusted rate flow and declined rate to the Permian basin wells in the US.

We also have far better equipment and expertise on these two drills. We have interest from a lot of big players and the world is very much watching the beetaloo now.

We also have a far bigger average than the Permian basin and we have stacked plays too which no one is even talking about because the valkerri B layer has so much potential in itself.

Even if this share pumps to 30p on news (which it likely won't) I'd only be derisking my original investment and letting the rest ride and to be honest if the flow rates are good I'll likely let it all ride as this will be a once in a lifetime opportunity for me to make a lot in the next few years.

I really hope the long term holders make bank here because they have kept this opportunity alive till now.

Best of luck all. I honestly think the historic issues and bad luck are behind us. Geology looks great across all the companies drilling in the beetaloo and we have all the experience we could hope for on these drills. Big money is always the last to turn up as they want to invest in a sure thing. I just hope the big money don't get to eject us for only 3-4 times return from current share price.

Good luck all

Tambo up 33% so far today on the news

RNS is out too. We are confirmed at 0% participation for the next 4 wells of the pilot plan.

That appointment was weeks ago but having the liberty CEO inside the tent is massive

Yeah there is amother big connection there that could mean there is more to that data center move by Riddle too.

Remember this

CNN

—

President-elect Donald Trump on Saturday named Chris Wright, the CEO of Denver-based fracking company Liberty Energy, as his pick to be the next secretary of the Department of Energy.

In the words of Kevin McCallister...... "This is it, don't get scared now...."