Member Info for frackme

Likely in mourning. My wife and kids keep asking me why I'm wearing black this week.

Unfortunately without an open data room it would be very unlikely that someone makes a serious bid.

Thinking about it more I think the two things that make this deal complex to value and understand are

1. Daly Waters are on the other side of things. If there was only Tamboran then I don't think people would be worried about a potential rug pull and shut out on the value. Fact is there is a wolf in the sheep pen and long term investors are rightly concerned that the route to a multi bagger became more perilous and possibly more unlikely with this deal.

2. The right not to participate. This is unique to this scenario. If Tamboran owned the rest of the Beetaloo and Daly Waters weren't in the picture and we didn't have the right not to participate this deal would look incredible even with that royalty mismatch because we'd be getting a 20% premium on a minority non controlling stake that has to pay it's way.

BUT we do have non participation rights which are a huge consideration as this play is at the early expensive part of it's life. Heaps of capex costs. Pipelines approvals with no revenue so for me that is a major consideration when I look at this deal. We could have sat our 1,23 or even 5 years spending nothing and raising nothing and watched our value increase exponentially and been in total control of our value extraction on this investment.

Combine the fact we are now in the expensive mix with the fact there is a shark in the waters who wouldn't think twice about sinking the boat early capping our upside and taking the whole pie for himself.

On tht balance I think the Tamboran shareholders are wrong in their assessment they didn't get value but like us they are wondering who the play serves? Then of the masters?

From their point of view they don't gain anything here except acreage but they have millions of undrilled acres so that's not s priority for them. they had drill control they don't get any extra cash or funding from buying us. We don't have a deep bench of investors so I can understand what they are scratching their heads too.

What is clear is that this move is great for BS and possibly the falcon board who can buy shares with the cash they get if they want to stay invested in the Beetaloo. I've seen enough deals in my time to be able to spot one that isn't a winner for either side but is a winner for a select few

Good to see retail investors crying on both sides of that isle on the matrimony.

Hopefully someone with big pockets and an appetite for tht Beetaloo throws a cat amongst the pigeons and makes a public offer that the shareholders see and the board can't ignore. Not having the data room open makes it unlikely though.

Maybe the cash was for expected legal challenges. Haha. That's a joke before someone points out we don't get it till it completes

Yeah I agree Longknife. The worry is that Bryan S and his gang have a serious chunk of Tamboran after the merge and they and take Tamboran out cheap before any serious value is created. I like you don't think this deal is great for us. It's not the worst either but I agree it's better for Tamboran but worse for Falcon. We had less royalties, 22% of the whole checkerboard could sit out of the expensive development stage and sell to many potential buyers at any stage of the development plan. Now we are tied into the operator with higher royalties no ability to conserve cash and a billionaire who owns the other 50% is in effective control of the company and he's not looking to make everyone rich just himself.

It's not a horror show of a deal but I think if you take a step back you have to wonder is it in tht shareholders best interest. I don't believe it is.

Great call on sanctioned shareholder. I forgot we had that Russia sleeper. More than likely what it's for alright

Add on the 23m cash. 200m USD is about 150m GBP or 22m over the initial projected cash value of the deal or more importantly 50m more than that current market cap. So anyone who thinks this deal will complete can earn a 33% return in about 6 months if Tamboran share price stays through same if they buy falcon at current levels. Tamboran share price is likely to increase. I expect more buying of falcon tomorrow

6.5m shares at 27.38USD is 178m

Tamboran up 21% today. The market sure liked the news. So we are by extension if this deal goes through also up 21%.

Thinking about it the cash consideration might be an indicator of what the board are getting. It might be that their options have a buy back clause in a sale and the company needs to be funded to make good on that. It has 6m which is ample for all the Cosec stuff that needs to happen so the cash consideration is for something specific. Payout makes most sense if I had to guess.

Longknife that is not correct. They agreed shares. "Tamboran will acquire Falcon via the acquisition of all its subsidiaries in exchange for 6,537,503 shares of Tamboran NYSE Common Stock and cash consideration of US$23.7 million". Those shares at the time we agreed at a 20% premium. But if Tamboran go up by 100% we still get 6.5m shares, so it absolutely can go up or indeed down until then..it's the number of shares that was agreed as consideration for the acquisition.

I think it's capped at number of shares which was calculated at that price on 29th September so don't necessarily agree it can't move.

What puzzles me is the quiet sale without the chance to get competitive bidding going. Only having Tamboran bid begs the question what was the advantage of doing that? If it was in excess of previously achieved acre prices you could make the argument that Tamboran said it was a once off offer that went away the second we went public to get deal tension.

But given it's at a price less than recently achieved prices (which are low) it begs the question was it a sweetheart deal.

We know the board are going to be gone we don't know what they get but you'd have to think it's decent for them to all agree to the deal.

So then you ask okay so it's a good deal for the board a good deal for Tamboran evidenced by tht bounce today but not a great deal for falcon.

Going public for a better price to bring in another bidder would almost certainly have been better for the shareholders and I don't believe Tamboran would have not engaged at the same deal parameters if we were unsuccessful in drumming up more interest.

The deal is defo not the best outcome for the shareholders. I hope some of the bigger shareholders can see that and it's voted down.

For the first time where doing nothing would be better we go and do something and I believe the board did it for the wrong reasons. Hopefully we get approached with a better offer in the meantime that can't be ignored.

With competitive tension it becomes less about that the board want and more about the price. The cozy back room deal can be controlled by the board at the expense of the shareholder..

Did they not press release after the released all that new info on the earnings call. As they are US listed they would be held to higher non-public info release rules. The completion of wells would defo meet the threshold of sensitive non public info and I'm pretty sure in that US you can release non public info on earnings calls but you have have to do a simultaneous PR release to ensure the info isn't just localised to. Small group of investors

Options are always out of the money as they are supposed to be an incentive to move the dial. He'll get more before they lapse but the board would be right to question what he's currently doing to deserve new options as the plan to let others prove this up doesn't need him getting more options so it'll be interesting to see if he springs into action now to justify any new grant.

More than likely the board will just roll more over but a good active board would not just do that based on the fact you used to have options that lapsed out of the money.

Options are supposed to be a vehicle up motovate future action to improve the share price and right now with no plan to do anything they'd be well within their rights not to grant anymore unless he shows how he's going to earn them..reverse split or sale aren't enough either. They are big standard requirements of the roll. Might see him get off the golf course soon..

Fair points Longknife even if they are more on the pessimistic end of things they are all valid concerns.

Only reason to do the farm out before we get the results from one of the new wells would be because Tamboran have run out of cash by then which is very possible and we are constantly told how expensive everything is.

I'm pretty hopeful that this saga will end well.

POQ has millions and millions in share options so he'll be sitting pretty if we pull this off.

He's just not putting all his eggs in one basket which is fair enough. I have more money to invest but I've reached my risk limit with Falcon and I suspect he's past his when he weighs it up as those options are likely going to be 75% + of net wealth of this goes well.

Timelines are a dangerous game when you are in control and even more unpredictable when you are not but I think we'd all agree that in the last 2 - 3 years things have finally started to kick off and the momentum is growing not slowing.

I think end of 2026 we'll be much happier with our investments.

Only reason we didn't hold the 10% gain is because someone panicked and sold 220k at 7 pence earlier today. Not seeing enough consistent buying to be worried about stock suppression. If we were seeing someone scooping up large positions after each crash then maybe but I don't think anyone is behind the scenes holding back the price. That fact that 15k can cause a 5% move in the share price shows you how little this share is traded. Very thin liquidity so when people get jumpy and sell their position at 7p it unfortunately has an affect. The value of this stock in a sale is far higher. Wouldn't be sold for less than 300m at the moment. Share price only affects people who aren't long term investors at the moment. Anyone who stays in will likely be fine anyone jumping ship right now is getting pennies for pounds on the underlying value of their shareholding. Share price isn't always the best indicator of the asset value. In this case the share price is at best what a minority shareholder with no control can command which I'd say is at least a 70% discount on the actual underlying value of the asset of it was to be sold for control right now..

Lads,

I think at this stage you might as well forget about Falcon. If the next few wells go to plan we are 100% on a x5-x10 bagger. If the news is good and we somehow avoid being bought out within the next 2 years then this stock could easily be up to a x50 bagger.

But 90 day flow rates on a injured well was never going to move the stock price much. A farm in before the 3 drill results might move it a bit but a farm in after 3 successful and full wells will be massive. We are like Tesla when Musk was trying to sell it to anyone for the price of some magic beans. But once they proved profit, the fact the car was good and the driverless software was the best the potential got recognized. Nothing fundamentally too major happened that wasn't there before but it was off to the races.

We all believe that the beetaloo is a great prospect, once the planning is green lit (nearly), the major exploration players are in (already there - think liberty, Sheffield, H&P, etc) and the play is commercially proved ( started but nowhere near complete) we'll be laughing.

We need a few more wells and then things like farm ours will massive. I wouldn't expect a farm out before the next three wells to do much unless it was exceptional (there is no reason for it to be as still tons of risk). But a farm out after 3 successful 10,000 foot wells I'd expect to be transformational.

Not looking to pump but would hate to see people who have been in for 10+ years to lose confidence now and sell for a loss when if the gas is there we are a few years (maybe months) away from a multi stacker from today's prices. Even people who bought in at 4 dollars can limit their damage if they wait a little longer.

Obviously if the gas isn't there we are all screwed but it looks more and more like it is and it's commercial.

Falcon has enough cash to keep POQ in the comfort he is accustomed to for the next 7 + years so it's like fishing now. We just wait for the juice fish to come along. Good luck all

Typo there. 50 not 60. 38.75 for Daly Waters. 17.6 of the other 38.75 is 6.8% then he has about 10% of Falcon I think so another 2.2% so nearly 50%

B2B it might be that you are reading that Sheffield owns more than 50% of the Beetaloo acreage which is right as between the Daly Waters JV holding, his holding of Tamboran and his holding in Falcon he's probably close to 60% ownership overall.