Member Info for frackme

Good to see Tamboran back up and Falcon coming out swinging even if just on the TSX.

Hopefully we've seen the bottom but I'm long enough in this share to know that's never been the case to date. =P

Could it be because they want the well number to reflect the number of drills and while SH2 ST1 still has SH2 at the start it kills SH3 and they move to SH4 for what they were previously referring to as SH3 because of thr sidetrack.

Oil when you bought at $10 what was the market cap? Did the market cap ever go significantly past £100m. We are under £50m at the moment which can't last long of we have good results from the Semi and the full length drill.

What happened to Tamboran on Friday. They clear the legal hurdle and drop 9%

The elusive 100 bagger. Well we can easily see the worst case scenario here what do you guys think a possible best base scenario looks like?

Let's say we hit two gushers 1.8k and 3k drills. Price might double realistically? Then we sit out the next drilling cycle if BS and Sheffield move out of the average (which I could see happen as BS will want to give off the best parts and will be able to do it as we won't be funded. So instead of drilling in this footprint he'll pick other hot spots and drill there to keep us out. He hits in those areas what happens to our share price? Does it triple stay flat. Does someone try and pick us up for 200-300m on the cheap. I really have no idea what the upside and the path to that upside looks like anymore.

What is strange to me is that on the 12th we were told the following.

"The SS2H ST1 sidetrack well is currently at a depth of 16,201 feet (4,938 metres), and it is hoped that the drilling of the well will be completed in the coming days."

This to me indicated the sidetrack was ongoing and soon to be complete at 3,000 m horizontal.

Then 6 days later we read:

"18 November 2024 – Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. (TSXV: FO, AIM: FOG) is pleased to announce that the Shenandoah South 2H sidetrack (“SS2H ST1”) well has been cased and suspended at a total measured depth of 16,182 feet (4,932 metres) in the Beetaloo Sub-basin, Northern Territory, Australia"

So in 6 days we went back 6 meters. That's a fairly big directional issue alright. I wonder if they already knew they stuffed up the side track as in someone said skipper we have an issue with the sidetrack and they put their fingers in their ears and hammered out and RNS so they didn't have to come to market saying we've stuffed up 2 more holes. The drill bit must have snapped off close to the home straight on the first drill as they hit the 3,000m and if they are happy you frack another shorty at 1,800 you've got yo think the drill head is stuck between 0-500m from the return curve. Bad luck indeed..

The 5% is turning into a good thing short term but that's only 3 wells out of 200 and it wasn't a master stroke from the board..we couldn't get that raise done at the numbers needed to fund more than that 5% meaning we had no other choice than a 5% stake.

My money is on the bank being Goldman Sachs. They fit the bill perfectly. They have/ had an active oil investment arm (it's a good punt if the 2 wells prove up), they'll do the reverse split and IPO and make money on that and they have a host of wealthy clients they can then get to invest to pump up the share price. Could be another bank but if I was a betting man which I am I'd put my money on Goldman being the bank interested.

Who are the majority shareholders. Bryan Sheffield, a fracking company, a rig company and a Russian Oligarch who has his assets frozen? Not many people on the list who care or want to challenge the status quo.

The other observation I would make is if you think Sheffield won't send us to nothing to make more for himself think again. He was let into potentially the best known gas shale opportunity on planet earth by Origin but the dude is such a shark that the idea of Tamboran getting rich off his experience was so off-putting to him that he built the checkerboard clause into the deal. This guy is a total shark and only out for himself. He wants all the glory for himself and no one else. Bryan Sheffield is a serious guy, perhaps built by his daddy but has sharpe elbows and a elon musk attitude to his own greatness. There is blood in the water and he's not our friend

i don't think i'd be that brave. when the checkerboard clause is enacted bryan sheffield and all his cronies and experience **** off and you are left with riddle and a huge raise needed.

remember tamboran are basking in the experience of daly waters and all his hangers on. once the checkerboard clause is enacted. he ****es off and starts drilling holes on his own and couldn't care less about tamboran except for what they can pony up for shared infrastructure (production facilities and pipelines)

not sure we have ability to checkerboard. that deal is part of the jv and between tamboran and sheffield. we could just be dragged through the hedge backwards. what deal allows us to checkerboard with tamboran or daly waters ? not aware of any clause or deal that gives us that option. sheffield might let us out but why would he if we have to participate in his squares at 22% and can't because of lack of funds, then he gets them anyway? so why bother paying for them. who wants to pay millions to be a drag along partner on either checkerboard deal? we missed our exit and if we don't sell in the next year after the next two well results we are a plastic bag blowing in the wind. i say this as someone who has only added over the years. i'd be investing in empire if you want to try and make multiples on anything as sheffield is private and empire have a deep bench of serious people and a serious red hot executive team compared to falcon or tamboran and their ceo is massively invested personally. i'd say the damp squib ipo was due to the fact that seasoned investors see the checkerboard as a major risk when all the talent and experience exits stage left

Wonder why none of these smart guys have worked out they could spend 30m and own 51% giving them total control of 22% of the play.

If I was sinking the money Sheffield is sinking into this area I'd be pointing 20m of my cash at falcon to get my holding over 51%. If he wanted to be could own (51%) of falcon within a year and if he really believes in the long term potential and thinks the gas is there he should do it. Not good for us obviously but if he's already put 250m into the Beetaloo and only owns about 50% through his own holding of the JV his 9% in falcon and whatever he holds on Tamboran. 25m to secure control over 22% for around 25m is a total steal.

Without our deep bench of investors we are ripe for the picking

I didn't realize you had shares McNally.....=p

To be honest we all know talk is cheap when it comes to falcon. We have bags of unkept plans and promises.

The only thing that will give me comfort is seeing the price move on actions.

The US investors won't bring themselves to the table and we won't be moving out of the 50k acres for the next 5-10 years so why would they be queuing up to buy 5% now when they can wait for us to have to do another raise from a position of weakness. At this stage we nearly need to be talking to Sheffield's enemies as in a years time the whole thing will be ring fenced for him and his mates and they can just freeze us out and pick us up for cents on the cents....oh wait we are at cents and they still aren't making a bid.

Very disappointing altogether. The geology and what's in the ground is the only thing getting us out of this mess not the Board of Directors unfortunately. If we get a good price it will be in spite of the plans not because of them.

Jesus not good, when the conductor is just a passenger watching that doesn't bode well. I can see a lawsuit in the near future unless the whole board get their thumbs out. Everyone is failing in the fiduciary responsibilities it would seem.

Anything of note from the investors presentation today?

Https://acrobat.adobe.com/id/urn:aaid:sc:EU:a3bfb346-65de-47d1-b04b-de469f826206

From 2023. Only found it last night

Hey smallfish Tamboran are planning on delisting from the ASX. All shares in Tamboran common stock are being transfered to the US holdco in Delaware. Then after that they will issue ASX shareholders CDI's which will be 1/200th of a US share and those CDI's will trade on the ASX. But for clarity they will be 100% delisted.

Falcon are dually listed on both the TSX and AIM and the shares are 1:1

Okay just reading that their plan is to delist from the ASX completely when they move so it looks like any current shareholders will just end up with less US shares at a higher share price but maintain their % in the entity. So not a reverse split by design but one by outcome.

Sorry my intial post should have read reverse split. You know the way apple or Tesla can split their stock like you had 1 share at 1000 tomorrow you have 5 at 200. Well the opposite can be done too. Like you had 100 shares at 10 cent now you have one share of 10 dollars. Penny stocks usually do stuff like that when the list on a proper exchange. So not a reserve split but a reverse split is what I meant.

Yeah no I get that but they are listing Tamboran shares on the US stock market but this is not a different entity. This is the same Tamboran resources with the same assets that are listed on that ASX and the common stock "shares" on the ASX trade at 19 cent a share. If they are just issuing another 6.5m of common stock (not a new class of share) then if the Shares being IPO'd are the same common stock as the ASX shares then one is trading at 19 cent today and the other will trade at 24 dollars when launched which is defo not the case. The article says the IPO at that range gives them a valuation of 474m. They are currently at 391m so there has to be a reverse split for those numbers to make sense that or they are creating a new class of share that carries 150 times the voting rights and nominal value of the existing shares in existence.

Why would anyone buy a share of that listing at a 150 times multiple on what they could pay on the ASX today or tomorrow.

There's more to that story..... Just half baked reporting as usual.

They must be doing a reserve split first otherwise the below makes no sense.

Their market cap is currently 392m. They do this raise and it goes to 474m. Share price on ASX is currently 19 cent so a share price of between 24 and 27 dollars can only be done of a reverse split of 1 new share to every 100 shares happens first..........Right