Member Info for frackme

If you look at Pioneer natural resources share price from 2010 till now it's like a rocket ship with some peaks and troughs. I know there was already a lot of infrastructure in the Permian basin and they just cracked the horizontal drilling technique to unlock the potential. But it does make you wonder what the upside potential is here if we hold for another 10 years. 10-100 times potentially if we are not picked off before then which would be likely

From "do something looking..." Onwards is an extract from Smallfish.

I think if flow rates are good this year we could see a nice bounce maybe even a x2 or x3. I'd love to hear what people with more experience investing in oil and gas think. This is only my fourth oil and gas exploration investment. I've seen doubles on decent flow rates on way smaller averages and far worse geology. But my thinking is that this could be the biggest potential gas play in the world if the flow rates prove. Already has some of the best players at the table. Infrastructure is not there yet but Gov sentiment is better than average and the small exploration share o saw double was on the smaller side of production potential and also had no infrastructure in place and it doubled and held.

I love to hear what people think and if they've invested in anything similar (not necessarily in size as that might be hard to get a comparative) before and what their experience was with the share price move on first real commercial flow rate proving.

Thanks Newtofo, I note that smallfish said a 3bn market cap for Tamboran would not be out of the question if the 2c reserves increase and the flow rates are good. That would be a 10x move. His justification was based on pioneers market cap being worth 80bn after 20 years of development with a potentially smaller acerage and more challenging type of gas to extract.

Do some looking, for example a mature Pioneer 20 years in the making had a market cap of around $80B on ~850,000 acres net (about 1/3rd TBN position). It's reasonably arguable that Tamboran's reservoir is superior to the Permian.

The mean price per boe view equiv is on par or better in Beetaloo and you don't have liquids to contend with in the reservoir occluding production.

Was the price hasty and ahead of time...yes. I haven't looked at the share count or market cap but there was far fewer shares.

Bottom line is a ten times valuation or ~3B market cap is well within the reasonable.

Derrik can you clarify if that was meant to read rarely? ;p

TSX up 25% yesterday and closed at 12.5p.

It's in Canada so it's just opened a few hours ago today and is down 8% so far today. Opened at 12.5 and is at 11.5 now. At 12.5 it's roughly online with where we ended on the AIM today at 7.25p given the exchange rates so anything at or above 12.5 by end of session will be fine

Haha, given they haven't even announced they started let alone flow rates that kind of movement would be more likely of a sale front running. But don't think it's that so no idea what's moved the dial. Possibly people just climbing back into the boat on the right side of the flow testing

Just had a quick look they did do an RNS for the kick-off of the fracking for SS1H.

27 November 2023 - Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. (TSXV: FO, AIM: FOG) is pleased to announce the commencement of stimulation activities at the Shenandoah South 1H (“SS1H”) well in EP117 which is operated by Falcon Oil & Gas Australia Limited’s joint venture partner, Tamboran B2 Pty Limited.

Does anyone know if the plan is to frack and flow the SS2H ST1 (the 1,800 side track drilled before Christmas) and the SS4h (the full 3,000m) at the same time. The last RNS was the completion of the SS4H with sand on the way. We have some nice pictures of the frack fleet too. I presume they are going to frack one, let it soak or not, and then move the fleet and frack the other. So do we know which one is being fracked first and if it has kicked off yet? It's been a while since the last shorty and I can't recall if they did an RNS when they started fracking or when they finished.

Great to see it moving on the right direction. No one is selling before the results of the flow so hard for anyone to get back into their positions before. Possible 2-3 bagger on results and much much more on the coming years as pipelines and processing plants get built and production kicks off. Could easily see Falcon going to 200-300m market cap on good flow rates.

Up 25% today on TSX

Tamboran up another 15% today. That's two 15% in under a week. Moving nicely now

So funny mate. Not only are you ignorant but you are also very rude. Instead of saying thanks and learning something your ego kicked in and you ended up making a show of yourself

Here is the aptly names idiot guy to the LSE brought to you by proactive investors a fairly reputable source.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/81/idiots-guide-to-the-london-stock-exchanges-setsmm-0379.html

Wasn't going to bother but I actually respect most of the people on this board so for the sake of completeness I'm closing out this thread with accurate info.

Your crappy attitude is going to take you to the top. Best of luck with it.

The simulation stages are based on maximizing flow, the last drill was only 500m so needed less stimulation stages. This one will be 3,000m.

Stimulation stages are where the track team place explosives and blow small cracks of between 1-5m in the shale bed they space them out based on the rock and the optimal spacing based on historic flows. Then they get those frack trucks to shoot the frack fluid at incredible pressures down the hole to open those initial cracks open. The mix is usually about 95% water with sand and some undisclosed chemicals (lubricants) the sand is designed to sit in the cracks and hold them open to allow the gas to flow.

The current consensus is that stimulation stages of between 40m and 60m is optimal. So that works out at about 20 stages every 1km.

No it has nothing to do with who initiated the transaction as both parties initiate it. Doesn't have anything to do with whether the market maker steps in or not. It's entirely based on the strike price and the bid and ask.

Normally if the transaction price is above the midpoint of the bid/ask then it's flagged as buy and coloured blue.if transaction price is below midpoint it's flagged sell and coloured red.if transaction price is at midpoint exactly it's considered neither buy nor sell in LSE website and coloured black

Well every trade is actually a buy and a sell. I looked into it before to see what it was that classifies a sale as either a buy or sell on this website and it's to do with the strike price. The bid is the price someone is willing to buy and sellers will be presented with that price if they want to close and the ask is what buyers are presented with when they want to buy and the difference between the 2 is the spread. So if I have an order up to sell at 4 pence and no one bites but I have set my trade up with a sell limit of 3.8 pence and the sale goes through at 3.95 that will show as a sell. So if you look at the trade prices you can see the two buys are at 4.00 and the rest are sells at 3.82. doesn't necessarily matter that you came to the market and put a bit order in to buy at up to 4.00 but closed at 3.82. it's stilly to be honest as it doesn't give any meaningful data. Two buyers might be just as motivated as each other and the difference might just be the broker or timing and they en up being classified differently.

Like I said all trades are both a buy and a sell. Even IPO's. The company is selling it's equity.

Merry Christmas indeed. Nice to see some good news with no caveat or addendum for once.

The participation thing unfortunately is a double edged sword. On one hand it's a saving grace right now because we are underfunded and our share price is in the toilet meaning without the participation deal in place we could be dragged through the bush backwards and bankrupted and forced to sell in a firesale if we couldn't pony up our 22%. So to be fair to POQ that deal has given us a safe port to take stock until we know if we have commercial gas or not and I guess the thinking is if we hit two gushers the share price rockets allowing us to fund and participate at will. However the last good news event was concerning as the SP did nothing and actually halved so the worry would be that we hit gas, the SP doesn't move. Tamboran and BS trigger the checkerboard. Both of them or at least BS who is funded hit the gas and start drilling. In that scenario if we are undrfunded it makes sense for BS to dot his wells as each well has a 6000-7000 acre footprint and if you don't participate in that original well you are knocked out from participating in any other future wells in that footprint. So instead of clumping wells which might make sense from a cost and infrastructure point of view they might decide to do them strategically to hoover up as much of our 22% in each of their sectors as they can fund and under the current arrangement of participate or evacuate that would be a disaster for us. The hope is that 22% of both sides of the checkerboard would be too valuable for any other of the shrewd operators in the oil and gas industry to allow BS or Tamboran get it for nothing. Only time will tell and I guess there is a big difference between the flow rates of a shorty (500m) and 2 x 3,000m wells.

My explanation is slightly shorter. BS is playing 3D chess..... Everyone else is playing checkers.

When the checkerboard hits we better be in a good position otherwise every drill he does on his board we lose ground if we don't participate. Hopefully the wells are gushers and someone like Santos pick us up for about 200-300m which will be pennies for us and a great deal for them. The days of the dollar valuation are likely gone. Can't see a route to 1 billion as we are currently configured. I bought a few more shares recently and hated myself for it. Best of luck all

Only silver lining is that at these levels no one will be motivated to sell so someone picking us up cheap has probably moved past the point where major investors might sell.......what a funny little share. =)

You've got to hand it to the CEO of Empire Alex Underwood he's doing a lot more with a lot less. He's got a deep bench of billionaire investors and now he's managed to get 65m funding without diluting on a patch of ground that is sub par to what we are sitting on. He's got a heap of his own money in Empire too and he's working flat out. Great to see it going well for them he deserves everything he gets for Empire as his work ethic and strategy to date has been on point.