Member Info for frackme

Sorry to hear that poods. Hope the recovery goes well.

Lovely find,

Yep it was approved on the 23rd May. Strange no RNS on it.

Here's the link. Scroll down to see the approval

https://depws.nt.gov.au/onshore-gas/environment-management-plan/approved-emps

That's just the recent raise in April being reported.

The reality is that going in at 5% or 22% might affect our sale price but it has nothing to do with our current share price. Tamboran are in the crapper too at 16 cent Australian and they picked up 50% of our 17.5%. theses next 6 wells sound like they are going to be the most expensive wells ever drilled in Australian history let alone the Beetaloo so being at 5% will have saved a lot of dilution whether you like POQ or not. It might reduce the final sale price but I'll bet it's likely to end up being a similar figure for us all at the end of the day. Like 500m offer at 1bn shares issued vs 1bn offered at 2bn shares issued. I know we keep saying it....wait till the next well. But let's face it all wells up till now have drilled and managed by numpties. We now have a crack team who have drilled a successful well albeit a shorty. It's enough to put us on the map but until we drill at least 6 wells in a row with decent flow rates that hold over 90 and 120 days no one is putting a decent offer in. The positives are the flow rates off the shorty were great, the fracking experts want in and bought equity and that is massive as they know rock, and the rig company also bought in for equity which is great and we have a decent team at the helm so while the share price is currently crap (and to be fair that's understandable) things will turn pretty quick if the next 6 wells stand up the geology. And still we wait for the bus to come.

Yeah I'd be surprised if it hadn't been bought by Christmas 2025 if the two wells this year are decent.

Yeah the problem with that idea is the JV in play with BS. Bryan won't want to sell necessarily and unless they have a JV that allows them split up the 77% then it might stalemate. Looking at YTD Tamboran and Falcon are both down 20%. From a logically stand point it makes no sense as before the results the Gov risk was the same, demand was the same and it was obvious all parties would need to raise capital. Only thing that has changed is the gas flow rates which have delivered way over expectations so it's either both companies are being hollowed out by a trading strategy that is designed to crash the share price which I don't believe or a combination of day traders who love volatility and jumpy retail investors are driving the price down in low volumes which I think is much more likely. Either way the next 3k well will either be the final nail in the coffin or the start date for pulling a prospectus together. Not sure Falcon can start a sale process on the back of the last shortie no matter how good the results. It's like waiting for a bus....you keep being told to wait but you get colder and wetter.....some people pack up and go home others stay and wait it out. The bus either comes or it doesn't and depending on what happens you have winners and losers.

Sale price is actually based on what the majority shareholding will take for the company and the larger BS holding gets the smaller that number gets.

To be fair to Riddle. Selling that gas to the gov is a nice move as it will make blocking the development of the gas fields, processing plant and pipeline harder when they have a seat at the table..

6p nice work, could be a bottom as I can only see 6.20 on this website from today

Longknife not sure your maths is correct there. 3.6 million pounds at a 6p price is 60m shares or about 6% of the free float. It's defo a small raise. Not worth raising any less, probably the smallest raise that could be done to be fair. If you are saying it's not a great time to raise that's another point.

I'd say we'll be sold by then because we'll have proved 2 3km wells (hopefully) and a heap of the directors options expire early the next year

Just thinking about it and a few things jump out at me.

Why did Falcon jump the gun on the RNS? I understand the gov having to sign off on it but the legal agreement hasn't been agreed yet?

Then thinking about the idea of giving away royalties is interesting too. It's usually a bad move as you are giving away the real future value at current depressed valuations. Would we have been better off at 0% participation for these 50k acres rather having to give away 2% royalties on the total block. The other side of that coin is that when someone has royalties the value of those royalties is only unlocked when it's producing so ironically the more Royalties someone like Sheffield has will make it more important that falcon is in a position to be producing which will only really happen in a sale. I just hope we don't lose our shirts in any sale. There's the small raise now I'd say we'll have a sale before the end of 2025. Good luck all

I hear you Oleo. While a seller may have what they spent over the years in the back of their mind a buyer will only care about the horizon and what's to come. If oil and gas was still a thriving industry and not in wind down mode then maybe Falcon could do better but the reality is there is likely 20-30 years left in oil and gas at any significant level (as it will go on at a reduced level for way longer) and any buyers will know that Falcon can't unlock the value in the asset and the longer we have to give up stakes in drills thr value reduces. While share price isn't necessarily a good guage of value in this instance, it is what the market values the company at whether you like it or not and any purchaser will reference it as a jumping off point in any sale. If we book significant gas to our reserves that will help. It's just my opinion at the end of the day and certainly not worth too much contemplation from anyone to be honest. I just enjoy all the machinations on this forum and throwing mine in the ring. have been on both sides of a few deals in my time but every deal is different and what you really want in any deal is competitive tension between two interested parties. No doubt what the falcon board will be aiming for when the decide to execute their exit plan..

The board are limited to 10% of the free float so they are about half way there. Hard to justify to your shareholders issuing many more options though when a share price is falling. Fastest way to get a vote of no confidence. We are at an interesting intersection. Real value is being created with these flow rates and will further increase with the results of the next 2 wells but if the share price stays static or declines it will make the route to more options very risky. I don't think you'll see the board issuing any more options this year unless the share price increases significantly. After all it's their fiduciary responsibility to create value for the shareholders, hard to justify it even if it's happening when the share price goes backwards. It's walking a tightrope. I'd say we'll sell in the next 18 months especially if the flow rates are good in the next two wells. Falcon hasn't the resources to unlock the real value and any purchaser will want to pick the company up cheap and not be paying anywhere close to the NPV that the empire article is putting out. I'd say it will be bought within 18 months for between 500m and 1bn and there may or may not be one more small raise before then.

Well the grant price is between 8 and 15 so they are only valuable above those prices and they you have to pay CGT on anything above that price. When they lapse if you haven't exercised they are gone. So they are worthless below the exercise price and they are worthless after the lapse date so if I was a beating man which I am because I'm invested in Falcon I'd say it would be safe to assume they don't want to lose the 20m at 8p that lapse in 2026 so I'd say you'll see a sale before then

If you want the best indicator of the minimum price we will sell for and an indicative timeline. Check out note 9 on page 12 on the last set of published financial statements on their website.

https://falconoilandgas.com/download/falcon-financial-statements-30-september-2023/

I don't know many boards who would let 60m of share options lapse before extracting the value.

Yeah but none of that reflects what we see. There was talk about 6-7k acres not 25k acres. There are less than 200 25k lots in the 4.5m. I'm not sure there will be buy backs either. The question is how long will it take them to work their way through the estimated 138 wells. While FOG won't be a producer a potential buyer will care about their ability to par take in the short to medium term as the window for oil and gas globally is closing due to the green initiative. I'd say we are fine but realistically I think being able to buy into these 2 wells at 22.5% would be the ideal scenario and once we buy into the first well in the 25k acres at 22.5% we have the option to go in at 22.5% for every well in that 25,000 acres thereafter. At 5% we are limited to 5% or less for the next 138 wells if they stay in this area. If a big producer buys us out they may look to do a checkerboard deal with the JV over the whole 4.5m acres to allow them get moving at pace and not be tethered to the pace of the JV.

The participation agreement was a master stroke to be fair as it gives us options and stops us from being forced to sell early because we can't pony up the funds I'm not sure if dropping to 5% would have been better than doing a raise though. Only time will tell.

Falcon RNS out this morning

Market not loving the news for Tamboran. Down 3% since release. Hopefully that inverse will be true for us and market will reward stewardship of cash and resources. If the two wells are commercial our value will climb significantly regardless so I guess it's more of forget about the share price until we have a sale. Good share appreciation can only help so in the meantime fingers crossed

Will be interesting to see what the market makes of this news. We are seeing the participation agreement play out. Two choices were to dilute and fully participate or not to dilute play at a level that can be supported by cash and carry. 138 wells is a lot of wells to be locked in at a max of 5%. But 50k acres in a lot of 4m is not much I guess.

Well it is of you think someone on this board is going to nail the trajectory or heaps of unknowns. Gov appetite and oversight, geology, drilling process, investor appetite, timing, personalities etc.

However if you come to the board to widen your perspective and get some insights, debate, challenges from others then I think it's really valuable.

Personally I'm not one to follow or look to follow blindly bit I do appreciate all the debate and dialogue as it helps me make my decision on the likely outcome and set my risk parameters.

I think we are all a little sore after the recent share price movement but no point in venting in the wrong direction.

On the raise point I think a raise would actually increase our share price long term. If you are and investor who would you rather invest in a company without the means to carry out the full pilot or a company that has the means to financially support itself. I think a 10% dilution would amount to at least a 30% share price increase and would be well worth it.

Either way we don't need to do anything. If we sit out on the pilot program and it's successful our acreage becomes way more valuable and if we do participate we start potentially generating cash in 2026.

I'm loving all the thoughts and scenario modelling.

It's going to be an exciting year for sure.