Member Info for frackme

Why didn't that RNS come up on the RNS tab on Falcon on this website?

They usually do?

On the top left of that sentinel link you can change the date and go back to that spot and see what the sentinel satellite picked up over the last few weeks.

on the 28th April and the 3rd May we had a flare roughly the same size. Although to my untrained eye the 3rd may looked the biggest to date.

then no flare till the 18th May and a fairly consistent flare ever since. I wonder if the early pressure was better if they'll use that for the 30 day testing or does the 30 day testing have to be continuous and consecutive?

Either way we'll get the results this month which is exciting. It's funny how when you switch to true colour (Red green and blue spectrum) you can't see anything and the only reason we can see anything is because the sentinel satellite can pick up frequencies not visible to our eyes.

Incredible stuff when you actually think about it. A machine floating in space picking up images that would not be discernible to the human eye, picking up images relating to another machine on earth pulling gas particles from 1km under the ground and then me being able to see all that while doing my day job all because Thij is the man/or woman and uploaded the link

Thanks Thij,

People like me really appreciate the satellite updates as I wouldn't know where to begin to find those pics.

Looking good and consistent. No idea how to read a flare but based on the size of those water tanks and the pad, the historic results and the team doing the job I'd say we are going to be over the 3 figure and everything over that is upside.

They'll crack the code eventually all we need is commerciality proved from this one.

Good luck all.

Cheers

John

I think we are going to get 5 from the flow rates.

Check out the empire flare for comparison. Smaller pad smaller water tank, smaller flare. Check out the flare in the link below

I think we are in good shape. Not backed up by anything other than the crack team we have doing this frack.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1015861/empire-energy-group-continues-strong-gas-flow-at-carpentaria-2h-as-testing-ends-1015861.html

That's the website where you can use their real time and archived satellite data.

I'm totally rubbish at this stuff but maybe someone who is more proficient might be able to have a look and see if there is anything to the newer satellite technology.

https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/real-time-imagery/interactive-maps/visible-infrared-imagery

Https://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/853661587048977000/Estimation-of-flare-gas-volumes-from-satellite-data-002.pdf

Overview

The World Bank’s Global Gas Flaring Reduction Partnership (GGFR), in partnership with the U.S. National

Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado

School of Mines, has developed global gas flaring estimates based upon observations from satellites launched in

2012 and 2017. The advanced sensors of this satellite detect the heat emitted by gas flares as infrared emissions

at global upstream oil and gas facilities. The Colorado School of Mines and GGFR quantify these infrared

emissions and calibrate them using country-level data collected by a third-party data supplier, Cedigaz, to

produce robust estimates of global gas flaring volumes.

Interpretation methodology

Detecting gas flares

The satellite data for estimating flare gas volumes is collected by NOAA’s satellite-mounted Visual and Infrared

Radiometer Suite of detectors (VIIRS). VIIRS has a multispectral set of, infrared detectors which:

• at nighttime respond only to heat emissions and hence are not affected by sunlight, moonlight or other

light sources

• respond to wavelengths where emissions from flares are at a maximum

• overflies every flare several times per night

• have excellent spatial resolution

The images below, covering an area over Kuwait, Iraq and Iran, show the differences in resolution between the

current VIIRS satellites and those used before 2012.

• The image on the left shows both flares and lights from towns and cities. This image is taken from NOAA’s

DMSP satellites, used prior to 2012.

• The image on the right shows the excellent resolution of the VIIRS detectors and their ability to respond

exclusively to heat from the flares and not to the surrounding visible light.

The ability of VIIRS to detect discriminate hot sources, such as gas flares, enables flares to be detected

automatically with minimal manual intervention. Emissions from non-flare hot sources (e.g. biomass burning) can

DMSP VIIRSM10

2

be removed from the data by selecting only emissions with temperatures above 1100 C; other hot sources burn

at lower temperatures. Indeed, flares burn hotter than any other terrestrial hot sources, including volcanos.

Since the first year of year of operation in 2012, VIIRS has automatically detected ~10,000 flares annually around

the globe.

Estimating gas flare volumes from the VIIRS satellite data

Flare volumes are estimated using the heat generated by the gas burning in the flare. The amount of heat

generated is close to proportional to the volume of gas being burned. The heat (in the form of infrared

emissions received from a flare by the satellite) generates a signal with a unique temperature and magnitude

which, when combined, are used to estimate the radiant heat being emitted by the flare (in Watts).

The infrared emissions received by th

Thanks for sharing OTD, it looks bigger to me too. No idea what all the stopping and starting is about but it's probable that they want to maximise the 30 day flow rates before going to market with them as they'll need to do a significant raise soon and the higher they can pump the share price off this update the less of the company they have to give away for the cash.

It's great to see the flare back and it's huge if you compare it in size to that water tank which is massive.

See it now OTD . thanks for directing me to it. I had thought it was complete but couldn't' see anything on it.

yeah is clearly states the production tubing was complete in late April and the well was re-opened with their intention to commence flow testing.

It's a mystery alright you might even say it's a tricky Riddle.

In March 2023, Tamboran contracted Silver City Drilling to undertake completion operations at the A2H

well, including the installation of production tubing. Operations to install production tubing were completed

in late-April and the well was re-opened in preparation to commence flow testing. The 30-day initial

production (IP30) rates are expected to be announced to market during the second quarter of 2023.

Drilling locations for the forward program are expected to be announced following the release of the A2H

well IP30 flow results, subject to joint venture approval

Can i just check something with the brains trust please.

The last update we have from Tamboran that related to this drill was the one on the 22nd March 2023 and in it it stated the following.

Tamboran has successfully completed the 25-stage stimulation program at the Amungee 2H

(A2H) well in the 38.75 per cent owned and operated EP 98 permit of the Beetaloo Basin.

• A total of 25 stages were successfully stimulated across a 1,020-metre horizontal section within

the Mid-Velkerri “B Shale”. Approximately 2,125 pound per foot of proppant was placed along the

completed horizontal section, an increase of ~55% compared to the Tanumbirini 2H (T2H) and 3H

(T3H) wells in the Santos-operated EP 161 permit (Tamboran 25 per cent, non-operator).

• The proppant was placed using 5-½-inch casing and based on modern US shale design. This

design has leveraged off the experience of the Company’s US technical team and incorporated

learnings from the drilling and stimulation of the T2H and T3H wells. The modern design is

expected to result in improved flow rates from the extended production test during 2023.

• The total expenditure for the A2H well to date is ~$32 million, including drilling and stimulation.

This is within 5 per cent of budget estimate after additional scope to the well was undertaken by

Tamboran post-acquisition.

• The flowback of stimulation fluid is planned to commence imminently and is expected to take

several weeks before the well is shut-in for installation of production tubing.

• Tamboran expects to announce 30-day initial production (IP30) flow rates during the second

quarter of 2023

Is it possible that the earlier flares were just as a result of the flow back process and the reason we don't see any flares now is because they have shut it in for the installation of the production tubing which hasn't completed yet?

If the flow back was expected to take several weeks then that might explain some flaring as they burn of any gas coming up with flow back. then they hit the bigger flare as it was just gas coming up and now they have shut it in to install the production tubing.

I have no doubt I'm about to be schooled in why that is not the case but just wanted to put it to the floor as a possible scenario. Maybe they have already finished the production tubing but I can't see any announcement to that affect on the Tamboran website in the investor section on announcements.

All thoughts and constructive feedback is welcome.

You are a brave man posting anything from an AI tool without doing any research yourself on a forum where a man's reputation could be tarnished by your posts. And an even braver man doing it against a billionaire. Re-posting AI garbage or using the word allegedly doesn't prevent you from a defamation case if what you post is substantially materially false.

I think a bigger clue to how the drill is going is the 15% increase Tamboran had on their stock price today. If you think that it's only the fracked holes that leak after and during flow testing you'd want to think again.

My bet is that the lads have done everything within their power to make this drill sing and we'll all be very happy when the flow rates drop. We know there is gas there, we know that one of the most experienced teams is doing the frack and we know that no issues were reported in the last RNS. I think people are jumping at historic shadows just when this Falcon is about to soar. I just added 25% to my position last week so not writing anything here I don't believe and haven't actioned myself.

Darnit that in might be relevant if it was true or coroborated but as it's from Bard I'd wager it's fairly useless and it's just more noise to add to the stadium of screams at this stage.

Haha,

Yeah I think we are all waiting with bated breath here. By the looks of some of the exiters the lack of flare is the certainty they need.

I'm in this one till the end or till I hit a 5 bagger whichever comes first.

Out of interest where on that satellite pic should we expect to see a flare. Not too familiar with the rig site plans.

Throw out your June 30th share price predictions lads... Mine is 17p. An initial burst to somewhere over 20p on results and then a retrace to a new bottom of between 17p and 22p. My guess is based on decent flow rates but also on the discount applied to the stock because of the regulatory uncertainty at the moment.

What I am certain of is if there is gas there the boys at Tamboran will have given us the best chance of recovering it.

Good luck all

Just picked up my last 20k shares this morning. Fully loaded now going into the results phase.

Good luck all.

Nice one Betyar,

Nice bit of news today for those boys.

Just saw Origin energy are up 35%. Anyone following that move and the reasons. Hardly the completion of the sale to Tambo?

Great news on the spudding. Up 7% today hopefully the start of some nice positive momentum for the share price. See Tambo are up 10% overnight too.

Good luck all

Oleo,

The super deal only stops our share price from being gutted....the price will only move meaningfully up on news of commercial gas...

Today's deal stops us from potentially losing another 20%.

But if the gas is there, this deal is going to do more for investors and our share price than any other deal done since the initial farmdown...

As Wet points out it means we can let others prove the gas and when our share price rockets north we can raise heaps of funds without huge dilution.

So the deal was never going to move the share price in a massive way only commercial gas will do that.

Good morning Wetwater... Super news alright and I have to take my hat off to Philip and the Falcon board... Superb piece of business that is going to keep giving over the coming years (if the gas is there at the commercial rates which I strongly believe it is). Agree with all your sentiments and also will be filling my boots over the next few months.

If Carlsberg did LOI's...

Oleo, I suspect that you don't want to look at this through a far lens.

No one sold 77.5% of the Beetaloo for 4.2m. even the 100m figure mentioned by Longknife (40 +60) is way off the mark. AS Philip said the deal origin struck with BS and Tambo goes to the very heart of what they feel about the play. the forwent cash up front for 5.5% royalties and 10 years of gas contracts. that is the real value of the deal and would be worth hundreds of millions or even billions if it goes well. It also clearly indicates that Origin believe there is gas there and they only got out of it in line with their transition to green energy plans.....

So no-one gave 77.2% of the Beetaloo for 4.2m.... That's actual absurd to even say that.

What they got for not exercising their ROFR.
Was $30m carry that gets them through the next 4 wells (which should boost the share price) allowing them to save possibly tens of millions when raising further cash.

and also the ability to sit out of drills or partially take part and even buy back at a penalty if it's gusher. that is an absolute game changer. It means in theory Falcon could sit out and incur no costs whiel someone else proves up the whoel area at a cost of hundreds of millions and only give up 6,400 acres for each well drilled but also have the right to buy back into a gusher at a penalty rate.

It's a Carlsberg deal and if you can't just give Philip and the board their fair dues for this I don't know what they'd need to do to get a thumbs up from you.

Raising cash now to partner up and get 100% would mean the company is raising cash at a price floor meaning huge dilution for current shareholders and is tying the company to all the risk of the beetaloo not working-out. It would push any drilling into next year for sure as it would be months before a deal was done.

It is my strong belief that between now and the results from these next 2 drills (which are spudding in October) is the last time to get Falcon shares at sale level prices. I'm going to buy more each month until the results come out and from that moment on I'll be picking my moments to sell over the next 10 years.

I know there has been a meme that you can always get Falcon shares cheaper. but I think that saying is about to invert and quickly. Anyone selling now will regret it.

Sorry I mentioned dilution because that is what Philip said the deal that would have been enacted under the RORF would have entailed. another partner plus dilution so it might have been that we had to raise a part of the funds or it might have been dilution to raise funds for the drilling after completion.

Philip didn't go into the nuts and bolts of what was being looked at but two things were clear. It wasn't a fully formed option with an LOI and the option that was being worked on would have required another player and heavy dilution.

I don't agree with you there. I've done a fair few deals in my day and until you have an LOI on the table you have nothing. In fact even when you have a an LOI you still have nothing as it's not legally binding.

Philip said that while they were exploring the ROFR and making progress he never said they had a LOI on the table they could have compared to the LOI we have today from BS and Tambo.

It's very hard to sequence any deal whereby you can have all your options on the table at the same time especially one that has 30 day expiry on it.

Oleo I wonder what you might say if you heard on the 21st that this LOI was on the table and the Falcon board held out to try and close the full buy out and ended up with nothing. I suspect you'd be furious as they didn't have an LOI on the table for the buy out.

I can imagine that BS and Tambo had a fairly short fuse on the LOI too and weren't about to leave it on the table right up till the 19th October, giving Falcon the option of kicking on with the buy out. You can bet that the LOI lapsed today and they signed at the last second possible.

I personally think that they made the right choice. Their job is to maximise the value for the shareholder and not gamble on the moon shot, which you are assuming would be better and I'm not so certain it would have been.

If FOG were close to getting an LOI with another operator I'm sure they would have done their best to get both options on the table side by side....... BUT with only 7 days left if they overplayed their hands and missed the ROFR window they'd have ended up with nothing.

Like I said I've done a lot of deals in my time (not in the oil and gas space) and the golden rule is to take each LOI seriously if you can't sequence them to land together.

After hearing Philip on the presentation this morning it sounds like any buy out would have been a back to the drawing board moment with huge dilution and a new partner.

The falcon board aren't idiots and I think they have done a super job.

Personally I think todays RNS is a super outcome and possibly in the top 3 outcomes we could have hoped for.

We were all worried that exercising the ROFR woudl end up in the ocurst meaning nothing gets drilled and we **** away all our cash in a legal battle that could go any which way.

I think most people also appreciate that BS and Tambo are eager to get drilling and have the money, the expertise and the best rigs to get the job done so it was always going to be bitter sweet if we tried to push them out of the nest.

What did we get for not exercising out ROFR

We kept the experience, deep pockets, best rigs and motivated drillers

We got a further AUS€30m carry worth AUS6.5m to us.

And possibly most important we became the masters of our own destiny in major way by the introduction of the optionality to opt in or out on any new drills. We still get to see the data of the wells we opt out of and there is a well limit by acreage built in too. These checks and balances mean we can't be steamrolled by the pace of any future drillign programs and end up selling our shares for pennies on the pound.

Now what doesn't mean we should be looking to opt out as we don't want to miss a gusher but it crucially gives us time to fund ourselves in the way we want at the levels we want and it also means we (and future investors) know the exact acreage given up for each well we opted out of.

I honestly think it was about the best option we could have hoped for.

Given the characters on the other side I don't think an exercise of right of first refusal would have been met with a handshake and a good luck and I also suspect the wider market felt the same way.

Super outcome for 25 days or so of hard work.

Plus best of all it means the drilling can finally start. Onwards and upwards my friends.