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announcement uk legislating to imposing ban on imports of iron and steel, wonder how this might impact evraz
does look like its in a wave C down, if it does reach the 85p level, the channel supports seem to be around 24th april, if it does, im guessing it might bounce a bit off of 114 on the way down, 85p if reached might be a very decent buying opportunity.
to get to 85p in 12 sessions would be an average drop of 4p per day, as well as conflict escalation, oil spike being potential trigges for such a drop, a covid spike might also be a ontender though i would think that would pull oil down, aiding iag price
does look like its in a wave C down, if it does reach the 850 level, the channel supports seem to be around 24th april, if it does, im guessing it might bounce a bit off of 114 on the way down, 85p if reached might be a very decent buying opportunity.
to get to 85p in 12 sessions would be an average drop of 4p per day, as well as conflict escalation, oil spike being potential trigges for such a drop, a covid spike might also be a ontender though i would think that would pull oil down, aiding iag price
i bought recently thinking it had bottommed and likely to rise to 190 and even 245 but sold with a small profit after looking at charts more, it might not happen but im starting to think this might even touch 85p in the next month, todays move down is just touching the possible C wave down to a low if it happens, if so, im guessing this might mark the base for a substantial rise. If it does get to 85p in the next month, triggers might be conflict spread risks or final oil price spike of this cycle, oil might have spiked and peaked days ago around $130 but its not certain this is the high, it would seem theres around a 12 to 14 month likely drop in oil coming after the 2 year steep rise, falling oil prices should help airline stocks as investment i would think
ratio of poly moex to poly lse is down from around 3 a couple of days back to around 2.5
guessing they have to converge to equilibrium at some point in the future
with current low pe ratios, would hope the lse price goes up to meet the moex price
'going after industries filling putins war chest like gold'
wonder what liz truss is planning to try to do and what effect this might have on poly and pog
'going after industries filling putins war chest like gold'
wonder what liz truss is planning to try to do and what effect this might have on poly and pog
what might turn out to be positive for poly and pog share price going forward is gold price. There seems to be a correslation of 19 month lag of oil from gold roughly, i expected oil to go parabolic around this time following the spike in gold 19 months ago, oil went up for 2 years, the gold price 19 months ago went down for 7 or 14 months depending on how you interpret the charts, but if the move up in oil was a wave 1, and were entering a wave 2 down for 7 but more likely 14 months, then oil might start going up in a larger wave 3 which should last longer than the two years of wave 1 which has likely just finished, and this could indicate that the gold price will go up for more than 2 years from either 12 or 5 months ago, so it looks like gold might go up for at least a year, possibly 2 years or so, and this should be positive for both poly and pog i would think. Analyst price targets are 1195p and 26.5p, but assuming lse eventually reflects moex prices which are approaching 900p and 12p at the moment, then even with increased long term political risk and increased interest rates, i would think the higher future gold price might allow prices to exceed the £20 and 40p highs, as the cost of production of both companies per ounce is quite low, especially if gold goes to $2500
as to evraz, its high was 707p, analysts forecast 650p, a rough guess of how it might open today if it did is the 3.5 times off low of polymetal 95p low x 3.5 = 330p, so low of evraz of 52p x 3.5 = 184p plus 50p or so for a third of the rasp value added in might give 234p, and if assets on lse are a third of those on moex, the 650p to high of 707p or more in future might be realistic
if the two biggest holders are selling mainly to satisfy wishes of their investors and not because of lack of value or risk, im guessing this will be temporary. it does seem to be the most undervalued investment left compared to underlying moex valuations. Im guessing this will rise substantially once foreigners can sell moex shares and are sure theyre able to obtain funds on sales.
the wording in the announcement
'As long as the RASP Group remains a part of the EVRAZ Group, the Company’s shares will also represent an interest in the RASP Group subject to the Company’s listing of shares being restored.'
i dont think this has any impact whether its restored on lse or another boarse as the rasp value would be within the evraz shares
but if it was taken private i assume rasp valuation would still have to be included in any calculation of overall enterprise value
i should say 53p not 59p, hopefully there isnt any other issues with debt size causing this decision and only the russia sanctions
so thankful i sold on the 11th feb and bought back on the 14th feb. presently everything on moex seems to be worth only a third on lse, so if shares are worth 370p presently, then 0.425 per evraz share is 157p, then a third of this is presently only adding 59p
but in future, maybe the £6.50 analyst forecast cited is still very relevant once the political tensions are resolved hopefully...
interesting, for both poly and pog, the lse price in pennies is a third of the moex price in rubles, regardless of the proportion of assets in russia, for poly its 50% for pog its 100%. Either the market thinks theres a 60% plus chance of complete loss of assets for foreign holders, or theres such strong sentiment and overwhelming selling that the price is being forced down temporarily in the west. jrs is the same, looks like its valuing at about a third of the value of all the equity assets in it.
tommorow the moex opens to allow foreigners to sell shares, this means that investment funds holding longer term may want to sell on moex and buy on lse or other exchanges, 2 or 3 shares of the same type for 1, i would think this has to act as a form of arbitrage and pull the lse prices up and the moex prices down for dual listed shares. they can but most of us cant buy on moex.
i suppose theres always political and other risks.......
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1PogORIVds
thats the strange thing, if theres an assumption moex will come down, it would need to more than halve from current level to reflect jrs at 150p. lots of moex shares have gone up since it opened this week, i dont think this can be demand from people covering shorts if they thought the prices would fall from 1st April, but ibnstead genuine reasonable valuations. I reckon jrs might go up a lot over coming months, possibly from tommorow, unless theres a perceived risk that funds or assets will be taken, but that doesnt seem to be the case. Even for duel listed shares on lse and moex they are less than half the price on lse in some cases, this could result in downward pressure on moex ones as funds could sell and buy the lse equivalents for long term, but there must be some doing that already who have access to both markets, and this could increase the prices of duel listed ones on lse. Have you seen the difference in price for polymetal on moex and lse, its pretty extreme at 969rub at gbprub of 109 equates to about 875p, compared to 320p on lse...
ive heard at last agm it was decided to continue as a going concern. even if the shares are sold and assuming they are sold in an orderly fasion over months at a reasonable price, there would be rubles worth around 450p plus the non russian assets valued at 40p, the rubles would be owned by the fund, so the fund would retain that value, holders of jrs would effectively own this value regardless of where they are held and in which bank i would think. The rubles could then be used to buy up shares in kazak or other nearby companies listed on russian exchanges in rubles i would imagine. The present 150p price seems to be suggesting a large probability of moex share price drop before they could be sold, i dont think this is likely as pes are so low, i would expect the shares to be largely kept in the fund, though I dont know if the fund has to sell these due to sanctions.
poly trading at 934rub at gbprub of 108 is equivalent to £8.50
This is half of all time high on moex which was £20 on lse which would indicate £10
moex prices are temporarily supressed due to military situation, lse even more.
Does suggest a return to £10 plus when things eventually return to normal
Poly on LSE up 133% since evraz was suspended at 82p suggests present 191p
Then more than doubling this to reflect temp discount on LSE compared to moex
Then adding another 20% to reflect effect on moex prices from military situation suggests £4.50
Then more benefits of holding rasp with its income for a while with small probability of demerger cancellation
dont know if morgan stanley have any plans to sell any of the shares in the fund as foreign institutions are allowed to sell from 1st april friday, the main few shares in the fund making up well over half its value have only fallen a quarter or so on average since the fund was valued in the high 600s, not sure if foreign holders can sell to anyone from friday or only to foreigners, i dont know if they will be forced to sell any companies ifd they have sanctions applied to them, perhaps they are allowed to hold them in the fund but not to add any more, but not to have to sell them. russian gov are spending a trillion roubles to buy them.
not sure how the dividend ban to foreigners works out in future, ive heard dividends cant be paid to foreigners, i dont know if they are kept on their behalf or lost completely, and whether theres a plan to drop the ban on dividend payments from 1st april
ok, so the 869.9rub price on google is 3 hours before gmt, so this might have been just under 4 hours of trading from 7 hours ago to 3 hours ago, its dated as todays date, its still way over the lse price though, on the polymetal webpage the aix us price is also not updated for weeks, guessing this is derived from the moex listing somehow rather than the lse one, as us never suspended
moex price is 870rub, lse price is 310p, gbprub is 115, i think this must be assuming a huge risk of delisting on lse or that russian assets are lost to uk holders, or that russians are buying up because they see value, but those in the uk are not buying.
with the sanctions, there wouldnt be such an easy arbitrage trade, this is a really large currency adjusted discrepancy, strange
this seems to suggest that the sanctions are affecting value of uk shareholders but not russian shareholders, even more strange
the 870rub price is from google but isnt shown on the polymetal webpage under investors and media which still shows 25 feb price
https://www.polymetalinternational.com/en/investors-and-media/
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=polymetal+moex&sxsrf=APq-WBvxvx6Jz23NqxDE7E2vInhFbJ1GaA:1648555595773&source=hp&ei=S_ZCYoewLdOT8gL-m7nwBA&iflsig=AHkkrS4AAAAAYkMEW8tjAQFcQUJHBNWO8cEf2SJzQPjf&ved=0ahUKEwjHgbWVpOv2AhXTiVwKHf5NDk4Q4dUDCAk&uact=5&oq=polymetal+moex&gs_lcp=Cgdnd3Mtd2l6EAMyBwgjECcQnQIyBggAEBYQHjoMCCMQJxCdAhBGEPoBOgQIIxAnOgQIABBDOgcILhDUAhBDOgoIABCxAxCDARBDOgcIABCxAxBDOhEILhCxAxCDARDHARDRAxCRAjoKCC4QxwEQ0QMQQzoFCAAQkQI6CwgAELEDEIMBEJECOgQIABADOgsIABCABBCxAxCDAToKCAAQgAQQhwIQFFAAWJskYIooaABwAHgBgAHSBogBwjqSAQsyLTEuMS4zLjUuM5gBAKABAQ&sclient=gws-wiz