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The intersection of the primary recovery channel from march 2020 lows and the steeper one drawn from nov 2020 lows through peaks of 12th jan and 3rd march 2021 or thereabouts suggests a temporary top of 449p for bp around 14th jan 2022, this would be 19 months after the peak in the gold price, where gold prices seem to indicate directional moves in oil prices 19 months later from correlation studies. 449p bp price would at 5* brent-25p give a brent price of around $95 or thereabouts
had a look at brent charts back to 2008, this is the long term channel down from the high and through other ancient pivot points thats deriving the highs in brent of weeks 7/3/21, 2/5/21, 9/5/21, 16/5/21, it also derives the lows of weeks 21/3/21 and todays low of under $66. Was wondering if this would be a wave c down to $59 and take bp down to around 270p but i dont think so, it seems more likely that brent and bp prices are continuing to push up through the long term downward resistance channels from past years, hitting pivots each time and moving higher. Theres a wide channel that encompasses all data points from april 2020 and bottom of it is $59 brent, in nov 2020 this lower line was touched with collapse in bp price, there was a wave c down in brent, but i dont think brent will hit $59, im guessing it may go up now, or possibly touch another lower level first but not $59. If it did hit $59, i think it would rise steeply after days and go back into its channel. The present channel that has been breached today for first time since around mid march points to a possible brent price of over $80 by mid july if it stays in it. From charts it seems to look more likely that bp is in wave 3 up of 5 waves and the most optimistic would be 350p by next monday 24th which is a pivot, but that would take a huge rebound in brent to $75 approx in 3 sessions, could take longer to get there. I would be very surprised if bp drops to its support of the main recovery channel from march lows at around 270p, i think its more likely to go up. Still think this is going to peak at well over 400p by Jan 2022 at the latest, before retracing and further rises, could be a decent pension investment.
hi nss22, its in that trend presently, if it stays in that trend and reached 346 mon 17th, i'll probably sell everything and try to buy back 5% or more cheaper a few day later, the trend its in is pointing to a pivot intersection of a downwards support/ resistance and an upwards resistance, 346p in a week, trend is a friend until it comes to an end, it may not get there by then
and the last thing that might be worth mentioning in terms of timing is that the gold price dips steeply for 2 weeks 19 months before aug 2021, then rises for 4.5 months, so im guessing a move to above 400 by august with a dip later in august for 2 weeks followed by further rise in bp for 4.5 months might take towards the goldman sachs price target of 470p, brent approx $100
and bp adr equates to 317 on close so might be within chanel still on monday
the 310 you mentioned may be the steep rise from past few days, the bottom of that channel was 313 on friday, 317 on coming mon, 321 tue, 325 wed, 329 thu, 333 fri, 337 next mon with 9p height of channel might give 346 pivot touch, but something would likely have to get brent to $73 approx, maybe the dollar will go above 1.4 as some are suggesting or something else.
ceders, im not seeing 310 as a support from nov low, from the lows of nov2020, theres a floor of 303 if 3 lower sessions from 26/4 are taken out, but i think the relevant channel up from lows is through 25/11/20 and 25/3/21 as tops of wave 1 and 5, wave 3 is higher than this as often happens, drawing the channel up from the lows in nov 2020 this puts the floor at 278 currently which is why im a little concerned this might be a wave B rather than minor wave 1 of major wave 3. The gold price leads oil by 19 months, ive tried to use this to work out timing of whether this is a wave 1 of major 3 or wave b, 19th feb 19 to 28th may 19 gold fell before, lowest brent price was $36 on 01/11/20 lowest bp price was 189p on 28/10/20.
This drop in gold price is from 4th sept 19 to 2nd dec 19, 6 months 5 days later, so would expect to see bottom in brent and bp around 4th May 2021. The trends for oil are much steeper upwards than last time, and bp price is positive rather than negative slope after nov lows, brent seems to now be in a channel since 21/3/21 which looks like wave 5 up, i had originally counted 3 sets of 5 waves up to march high in brent, but the second one connects to the first one and doesnt have a deep corrective wave pattern, so im guessing wave 5 for brent from lows started 21/3/21, if there have already been 3 sets of 5 waves up for brent, we could be facing a c wave in brent which would pull bp down heavily, theres one elliot wave analyst talking about imminent sub $50 brent from lower wti, but i think this looks like start of wave 5, if its a wave c coming, those long will have to wait a few months for recovery, those on margin might get burned, but i think its start of wave 5 in brent, and start of a second new set of 5 waves up for bp, if im wrong, well soon know. If it is a wave c, im guessing the downside might reach the bottm of that channel i mentioned at 278 presently, might meet it after decline of around 80% of wave a somewhere around 290, the difficult thing is that it looks like there has been an abc correction from 5 waves up in bp, but the abc could be an a wave, and we could be in a b wave, but i still think its far more likely were in a wave 1 of major wave 3 up, it looks like brent might have 4 months to run, this might take it to 90ish, and another 3 months of bp rising would take it above 400p, it looks like bp is roughly $brent *5 -25 in pence, so $90 could be 425p. Interestingly the shallow channel up from march 2020 lows intersects top of steep channel up from nov 2020 at around this 425p figure around the time that brent could be coming to end of wave 5, bp would possibly be ending wave 5 then. will see if bp goes to one of the pivots of 346 or 350 in coming week or 3 weeks respectiviely, this may be top of wave 1 of major wave 3. There would easily be time for waves 3 and 5 of major wave 3 and another set of 5 waves for major wave 5.
incredibly your 262 does sit on the lower trend line at the date you mentioned if through the lowest points, i agree its unlikely to go there any time soon, its imfossilble that im fossilised, im very much alive, my username reflects i dont fit in with the current idea that CO2 is necessarily a bad thing, its food for all the plants and crops. Theres a rumour going around that many users are the same person working in a foreign call centre, several believe this, have a nice weekend
youve taken the absolute lowest points, ive drawn support of primary recovery channel from march 2020 lows slightly more vertical as goes through more points, also ties with the 4/2/20 and 6/9/20 highs, i think this is the recovery channel from the lows, guessing the steeper channel rising from the lower october lows may overlap that channel and when the tops of each meet, i suspect that will be a major temporary top, would be over 400p in coming months if so. 2.32pm...... he he, sounds far fetched i know but because the resistance and support lines cross it can give an approximate date of direction change, give or take a day or so and the actual top in advance. 262 so quickly is extremely unlikely as steeper than even the shorter moves recently, i mentioned the two possible 346 and 350 pivots as actually heading in that direction presently
love your userid, guessing this is from shorting to 262 often
bp still in channel after close but hitting a minor resistance line down from pre covid data, last three days tops roughly tracing this, might be heading for 350 pivot 25th may rather than 346 on 17th may, if doesnt roll over into a wave c down for some days
cheers, interesting looking at previous recovery channels from lows, guessing bp, rr and others could potentially rise a lot over small number of years in typical 5 wave up pattern, do you think 400p by mid 2023 is unrealistically optomistic? Almost opted for glencore over bp and shell, it tripled in months, wondering if the same might happen to rr from here on.
cheers, interesting looking at previous recovery channels from lows, guessing bp, rr and others could potentially rise a lot over small number of years in typical 5 wave up pattern, do you think 400p by mid 2023 is unrealistically optomistic? Almost opted for glencore over bp and shell, it tripled in months, wondering if the same might happen to rr from here on.
the shallow broad channel its in from rights issue looks like it has a top at around 400p around mid 2023, is bouncing pretty much along the botton of the channel, candles keep trying to form a steep rise in this channel parallel to previous attempts, another started 3 sessions ago, guessing this could be decent pension investment for next 2 or 3 years and beyond. must be freezing in the falklands at the moment no?
if it does fall out of channel, below around 313 today and stays below it, another possible pivot fromn that upwards line and the higher top parallel downwards resistance line is 350 on mon 24th may, guessing either way would fall far days if touched
if it doesnt fall out of the rising channel today 310 low, it needs to rise 4 per day for 7 sessions on average and may touch the 346 pivot, intersecting line from march lows through two highs of recent weeks, with resistance of channel from precovid fall, the 326 high of weeks ago, both of us got out at 324 was the touch of the support of this downward channel, it might touch the resistance of the top of channel this time at 346p on fri 14 of mon 17 may, guessing will fall for days after if does
if it does would be over a period of 7 session days from yesterdays close, would be an average of 4p if it happens, candles seem to be forming the channel and it meets the line from march low through two recent highs weeks ago, and the major downwards resistance channel from pre covid datapoints, the last peak at 326 pounced off the support of this channel, now i think its possibly heading for the resistance of the same channel, at pivot 346p narrow channel may get wider downwards
ive bought back in, looks like its just touched the bottom of the narrow steep channel up to 346p, if it stays in this, might reach a pivot at 346p on friday 14th or mon 17th may, around 4p per day average rise, will wait and see, guessing if it gets there is likely to reverse down later a few percent
the 346p around 15th may that it seems to be pointing towards is also on a line through the two highs mentioned which points back to the price low of months ago, wouldnt surprise me if it touches 346 on monday 16th may, then reverses, would need to rise 4p per session on average to get there, the channel is very tight compared to previous upward channels, will wait and see
just drew a channel through from low of 28/10/20 and 23/4/21 the top today sits 22p higher at top of channel, that top of channel runs exactly through loads of datapoints so todays price top at almost 319 may turn out to be of greater importance
zac, its not just likelihood of price going up or down people use in managing pension etc but likely magnitude in each direction