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https://www.mining.com/web/polymetal-studying-possibility-of-kazakh-mines-demerger/
dont know if this has already been commented on, in case people havent seen so far
jrs also doubled a couple of weeks ago in a day like this from 85 to 170 i recall but it went on to make new lows at 75ish, its around 105 two weeks on. pog is so volatile, it wouldnt surprise me if it goes down again. Analyst forecasts for poly and pog are 25p and 1200p, for one year out, in both cases this is around 60% of all time highs over past couple of years. Removing the 1.88 from 650p forecast for evraz, also gives a one year forecast of around 60% of all time highs which were around 700p weeks ago.
if poly is 250p vs high of 2000p, one eighth of high, with around half assets in russia, then pog with all assets in russia should i would think be well under an eighth of its 30p high, excluding the 40p high of many months ago, which is 3.5p with poly at 250p.
poly was around 150p at suspension at 82p, so with poly at 240p presently, maybe evraz might reflect 130p or so if it opened today
not quite fully sure how this might affect polymetal, if at all
https://www.rt.com/russia/552533-us-attempts-freeze-gold-reserves/
i mentioned the other day that this might be the biggest risk, creditors calling in loans to try to get assets cheap, the short term and long term debt and liabilities looks like around 7.5bn, and cash and short term receivables only under 3bn. This seems strange, the debt is with melon, evraz paid with their own bank SG and the payment hasnt got to them. Even the russian gov was able to pay coupons on its debt last week. hopefully the banks and major shareholders havent come to an arrangement to liquidate.
this is article for you to check to see if its correct
https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/materials/lse-evr/evraz-shares/news/evraz-lonevr-has-a-pretty-healthy-balance-sheet
This was a snapshot from mid dec 2021 in an online article
"We can see from the most recent balance sheet that EVRAZ had liabilities of US$2.64b falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$4.90b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$1.43b and US$770.0m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling US$5.34b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined."
I can only see around $1.5bn in bonds so guessing rest might be with banks, assuming the bonds are included in liabilities figures
i thought total debt was around 7bn and only 1.5bn of this is in eurodollar and rouble loans so guessing theres 5.5bn debt with banks i assume and only around approaching 3bn in cash and short term receivables. This was one of risks i thought might exist, with ther share price so low, companies would find it difficult to raise capital if they needed to, with all the anti russian investments sentiment, the share price is artificially low from political risk/sanctions in general, doesnt reflect high earnings.
the more cash the company has the less likely banks are to call in loans and cause problems or put the company at risk as loans seem to greatly exceed the current assets. There looks like lots of future cash flow in future but this isnt liquidity today.
if around £10m per workday is added, or £200m cash per month, maybe £2bn by march, £3bn by aug. With 1.5bn shares, this might mean 3p added to shareprice per week, or 13p per month, though present share price of 82p doesnt seem to reflect true value, if political risks settle back down, the high of 707p would seem closer to a fair value, with well over £1 earnings per year with or without rasp included. While rasp demerger is on hold, the profits will continue as part of evraz from the coal division as well
For a guess of how much rasp dividend might apply per Evraz share, we could take for instance the equivalent collapse of say polymetal which is on lse and moex exchanges, rasp is also on moex, rasp is 320rub, poly is 895rub, poly on lse is 168p, so 320 x 168/895 = 61p then multiply that by 0.425 = 26p, so at likely current price, each evraz share might at present guestimate prices give a dividend of 26p. If it goes ahead, maybe 26p div for the evraz 11th feb holders, and if it doesnt go ahead, maybe 26p up on the evrez share price. This is a far cry from the £1.88 assumed, grateful i sold on 11th feb and bought back on the 14th feb.
The suspension of the demerger will only increase the share price by the probability the market thinks it will be cancelled times the markets expected value of the rasp assets x 0.425 per evraz share. Those who bought on or before 11th feb will not be affected, the share price rise should equal what they would have been paid as the special rasp dividend in november, but for those who bought from 14th feb onwards, they would gain in share value by the above. Its only suspended pending uk and Russian govs confirming things to Evraz, this means most likely it will go ahead eventally, but they might cancel it in future.
the rns regarding demerger today mentions suspending indefinitely, and awaiting response from UK and Russian authorities.
its possible this might not go ahead, i assume they arent applying in court for the capital reduction shares this week now.
if shares recover remaining on LSE, they should be higher by the value of rasp shares x 0.425 if this is formally cancelled.
it could make sense to cancel this as Evraz would hold the value of the shares as a current asset, providing added liquidity.
if they did cancel this, Evraz share price should rise, those who bought from 14th feb onwards could benefit overall from this.
If earnings are roughly $5b per year or $100m per week, and there are 1.5b shares, very roughly, that means that value per share of nearly 1p per work day is being added, a bit less than this for interest, tax, etc, but value of an additional approaching £1 should be added roughly each 6 months. Its presently undervalued hugely compared to its earnings and dividends, but more so over time while there are no dividends. The rasp demerger should still be possible to go ahead i assume, the rasp shares cant be traded just now but if they could be, im guessing they would be undervalued. Until the russian market opens, these cant be sold and demerger dividend given to the evraz holders holding back on 11th feb close, if rasp demerger is cancelled which i assume its unlikely to be, then the value of the rasp shares should be added back to present holders to the extent of rasp share price plus discounted future dividends. In case cancelled, the only ones to gain would be those who sold by feb 11th and bought from 14th.
im wondering if wti gets to 146 in the next week, as end of wave 1 up, followed by a 7 month retracement down as a wave 2, if this is lagging gold 19 months as gold went parabolic upwards for a couple of weeks 19 months ago, and oil then goes up around oct 2022 in wave 3 for another couple of years like wave 1, then gold might be going up for a couple of years from march 21 to march 23 which might be positive for polymetal for another year from gold revenues. still cant believe how low the p/e ratios are for this.
steel and iron ore are up a lot as well, could be beneficial for evraz, looks like theres a lot of inflation now in commodities.
everything i can see on all sites shows $5.69 up over 100%, cant see anything at $3 on any sites
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/aucoy
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AUCOY:OTCMKTS?hl=en
https://www.barrons.com/market-data/stocks/aucoy
https://uk.investing.com/equities/polymetal-international-adr
yes, if div risk came to light over weekend may be lower than us close on monday open uk, but still think this is oversold.
interesting, the adrs more than doubled on friday, set against this are comments about new sanctions against british interests.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/aucoy this might suggest a price over £3.50. theses so much volatility in markets.
i would have guessed this has to go much higher soon, the p/e is so low and divs to shareprice so high, many must be buying up. It might have touched 180 twice now, might be a double low, will see, dont expect it to fully retrace soon.
if this retraces in the same period as it fell, and if 52 was the bottom, then it took 6 weeks to fall from 616 to 52, fib retrace for 38 50 62 might be 267p 334p 401p, the only fall i can see remotely similar is the pre covid crash mar 2020 from 699 to 203 in 9 months, it took 14 months with lots of qe to almost comoletely retrace 100%, it does also look almost looks like a double top