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One idea to coincide the peak of oil and BP around early 2022 from 19 months after gold peak is that the move up is still in wave 3, and wave 5 in brent wont start and complete until by early 2022. This would make sense if the less steep of the three channels is followed and could result in a brent price in the 90s still in early 2022, another possibility is that the wave 5 runs a long time or that there is a further wave up after wave 5 and small correction to take a peak to early 2022. Still think this is lilkely to be quite a bit higher in early 2022 than now, so only selling temporarily if see an obvious pivot high reached quickly.
had a look at the price channels for brent for likely final wave 5 up of this cycle and assuming wave 5 goes to end sept then the three likely channels give tops of $82 $85 $93 which might mean roughly 375p, 390p, 430p though if it is a wave 5 it may be shorter. completion of such a cycle in BP is likely to be followed by a correction and then further rise i would think. The steepest of these three coincides with the top of the primary recovery chqannel from the march 2020 lows. Presently the candles are pushing up near the top of the least steep channel, but they may push through into steeper channels. If the steeper channel is followed and peak in say sept reached at top of recovery channel in BP, this might be a top at around 430p for quite some time. The gold price turn down indicates with 19 months delay the drop in oil prices from mid q1 2022 to end q2 2022, so im guessing there will be a rise in oil and BP to early 2022. Tommorows open might be no more than todays close from adr close. Never goes up in a straight line but also conscious of not wanting to risk losing position while taking a small profit in short term. Wouldnt surprise me it gets to 343ish in quite near future, possibly bouncing off 325 first
only 8p under brent*5-25p, if goes to 325p today would be almost in line with equation. Guessing would likely retrace a few pence before moving up. In next few days should have idea which of three possible gradients up for wave 5 on brent to late september, best looks like $95, would be approaching 450p, others 2 possible channels lower than $95
todays top of candle touching line up through 27/5 and 6/1 highs so may be the high for today but suspect may go higher
drawing line through lows of 13/5, 27/5 28/5 and same gradient through top of 18/5 also converges on 325 today
if the gradient over tops of last 3 days holds, top could be 319.5 today, drawing the same gradient through the top of 26/5 candle gives a possible top of 325 today if in channel and interestingly that exactly occurs at cross over of channel top if it forms and the next downward resistance line from pre covid data. will wait and see if happens
mojo your figure of 343 does appear as intersection of one of the downward resistance lines from pre covid data and top of channel drawn up across past 3 days tops, this gradient is the same as what appears to be wave 1 from 23 apr to 5 may. That wave went up 30p in 10 days. The point where the channels cross is around 10th june, but this started last week. There is another resistance line below this one which i suspect it may bounce off of currently around 325 first. If this is a wave 3 up, it could be bigger than wave 1 which climbed 30p, the possible wave 3 started 305p on 27th may.
looks like its in a slightly downwards channel drawn from highs of 5th march and 25th may, with parallel support to channel through lows of 27th and 28th may, top of this channel is presently 317.50 today, think will move higher out of this soon
Its now 18p below the 5*brent-25p that its hovered around for months, this would mean a price of only 357p at $80 brent if reaches this on this cycle. Theres a fair bit of discussion as to whether this move up is part of the wave 3 up or a wave 5 up, if the former the cycle top may be quite a bit higher than $80 around early 2022, but if the former the cycle top may be in Autumn and perhaps not far from $80. At brent $70.80 the price a few weeks ago would have been 329p, not current 311p
the historic support upwards line and downwards support line through recent 204 low intersect at 194c on 20th june, might never happen, but may be a pivot rely on own investigations
ceders, had a closer look at long term trend lines for baba going back further, at first glance it looks like its now completing an abc down from top, and start of wave 1, but the main long term support line going back to 2015 that runs through a few lows to nearly 2019 is currently at 192, and theres one below that at 186 through two even lower lows. That trend line gradient is different and is also reflected in the support of lows through including since dec 2020. it may appreciate from here but i suspect the low of the cycle might be 192ish or 186ish from longer term trends. The A wave down fell 106c and the C wave down has fallen peak to trough only 70c so far. 70 doesnt fit with a fibonacji ratio though not very far from 61.8% but 192ish would reflect 78.6%. The 186ish line may just be a couple of below support outlier lows
that upward trend line was pretty indicative for lows of yesterday and today, exactly 304.7 today and 0.1p out at 304.6p yesterday. Has dropped a few pence below the 5*brent-25p equation since iran talks and the 3 oil company decisions of 26th may for shell, chevron & exxon, guessing this may have had a few pennys influence. rely on own investigations, cheers
does anyone else wonder what the annual expenditure must be going on? there must be a very very lot of funds going in expenditure outside of salaries. If the revenue last year was $180b in a down year, an average salary and related costs of say $100k for 70000 employees is only $7b. So if theres only fcf in the teens of bilions annually, there must be huge sums being spent at huge costs, many times the cost of salaries for the entire bp workforce. Unless its paperwork excersize to minimise tax liability, in a downyear theres suddenly ability to save huge sums by laying off workers, but laying off 10000 workers at say an average of $100k pa would only reduce salaries annually by not far from $1b. There must be huge sums going to external companies to carry out exploration or running activities. Would be interesting to see what actual costs are spent on, maybe there are extensive provisions for decommissioning included each year, but im surprised fcf is so low.
some interesting elliott wave analysis by some online, this lady from nz expects $88 on wti in late summer, would be roughly $91 brent, might reflect a bp price in the area of 430p at 5*brent-25p. Interesting what she thinks might happen in next three years, charts are estimates at the moment, but shes expecting it seems $150 plus on the way to $200 oil.
An extreme move to the area of $200 would reflect a price around 975p https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A2i0MSE0fFY
Theoretically the lower dividend for next few years shouldnt affect share price as the lower dividend is allowing lower debt, more investment etc, the actual monetary value of the enterprise benefitting, even though a share value is the future discounted dividends stream, the lower dividend now is like a higher dividend in future years, should roughly balance out.
looks like after the abc correction of mar 14 to apr 22 following what looks like 5 wave up from nov 2020 lows, there have been small channels around 50 degrees up and 40 degrees down, can almost count the ending of three abc's in each of the 3 parts of abc since march 14. This would suggest imminent upswing corresponding with the liklely rising summer oil price. The low hit today (sofar) is at this same down gradient drawn from the low of 18th may, suspect is going up a lot soon. The possible support from trendline drawn up from channel from apr 22 through lowest points suggests a low today of 304.70. Brent in its likely journey up in the summer is likely to retrace in waves on the way up and pull bp down every few days.
the ratio of rdsb to bp is i think similar to pre covid, was particularly higher than 4.18 before because of exposure of bp to transportation fuels, im guessing the cheapness of bp to rdsb is coming to an end and may even overshoot to maybe 4 giving the arguement of rdsb instead of bp. uk gov would be encouraging move of shell to uk though ive heard it said that tax deductions from decommissioning costs meanss that oil companies dont pay anything like the sums of tax they used to.
wee naughty baz, no time to lie down when theres work to be done
hi ceders, just youd on 5th may youd bought at 227, price didnt drop to 209 and 215 till days later, guess youve been able to average down and take advantage of drop days later, looks like a possible rebound from 205 upwards but theres another support at 200, then others that can be derived much lower, but guessing might not go lower than 200, as you say sentiment vs china can impact, often think with the large online companies it can be easier for competitors to take business share, its got a huge valuation even after the drop, several times that of bp. Think bp will be a lot higher come late september, though interesting the article just posted by wmmg about shell. info must be in marketplace by now and no big downturn in brent or bp at 5xbrent-25p. Guessing this might push oil price up if forces reduction in production or increased costs with carbon capture, pitty countries dont just plant more trees, even nasa say crops are growing better from co2 and the earth greening.
ratio of rdsb to bp is down to 4.23, if drops below 4.18 or even as low as 4 there might be an advantage in swapping to rdsb
hi ceders would have mentioned to you there was a support line at 205 for baba but too late you had already bought, suspect bp could be well over 310 in future, share price seems to be roughly brent$*5-25p, at $69 should be roughly 320p but as of yesterday moved a bit below this equation, looks like brent may have just finished corrective wave 4 so may have a 4 month upward move to late sept, both waves 1 and 3 were 4 months and rise of $25 and $35, so a rise same as wave 1 would be $65 plus $25 is $90, that might suggest bp at around 425p, not in a straight line. Goldman think $80 and 470p are possible. Both corrective wave 2 & 4 were roughly same period of weeks and coincided with 19 months after periods of gold price drop.
65.5 to 71.5 would equate to bp of 303p to 332p approx, rising slowly to a peak range of 420p to 449p in mid jan 22 if so
65.5 to 71.5 would equate to bp of 303p to 332p approx, rising slowly to a peak range of 420p to 449p in mid jan 22 if so
interestingly there is a channel that points to $95 brent in mid jan 2022, the low of yesterday touched the bottom of it, current range is 65.5 to 71.5 dollars roughly, seems to touch many data points back to march 2020, will see if stays in it
if brent does form a very shallow wave c from lomg term 13 year old channel from 208 highs of around $150, this looks like it might end around 23rd July at a low of $64.5 then go up steeply as new set of waves upwards but i think this is unlikely