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even where its the uk company evraz that gets paid from rasp sales and then distributes the average amount in usd per share to shareholders, the uk listed company would i assume also be treated as a foreign holder so couldnt be paid in the first place..
i plan to be a long term holder for divs, PE ratios are so low, but situation is a bit unprecedented, this has dropped 90% so far
i would have thought that there could be a strong rebound in poly and evraz as these are instruments that western investers can get exposure to cheap partly russian invested assets and also get dividends on them, which cant be done for actual russian ones.
i would think these have to rise quite soon to a fib level as the drop has been immense, even with further sanctions being issued
i dont think theres any restriction on russia residents getting divs from uk companies, so this shouldnt drive a move to delist to satisfy any majority share structure resident in russia, both companies dont seem to be considering delisting from LSE primary.
any restrictions to not pay divs from russian securities shouldnt apply to both these as they are both LSE primary, not even AIM.
i would have thought that there could be a strong rebound in poly and evraz as these are instruments that western investers can get exposure to cheap partly russian invested assets and also get dividends on them, which cant be done for actual russian ones.
i would think these have to rise quite soon to a fib level as the drop has been immense, even with further sanctions being issued
i dont think theres any restriction on russia residents getting divs from uk companies, so this should drive a move to delist to satisfy any majority share structure resident in russia, both companies dont seem to be considering delisting from LSE primary.
any restrictions to not pay divs from russian securities shouldnt apply to both these as they are both LSE primary, not even AIM.
glad i sold that lot on 11th feb, i now realise the complication as the shares in rasp would be on the russian exchange but theyve banned any payments or coupons from russian securities to foreigners, so assuming this goes ahead, the russian share holders of evraz will get the shares, but those outside russia wont be paid anything for them, or at least this would be delayed i assume. I think dividends are not paid to foreigners outside russia but the actual securities are still kept in the non russians name.
i dont think the actual demerger is being stopped, i assume this is all about the handling of the share value for ftse indices.
im wondering if the banks are shorting to try to liquidate the company, there are billions in debt, more than cash, with the share price low it could be difficult to raise capital, it looks like evraz has more debt proportionally than poly. drop is substantial
ok, checked these two sites again, and looks like to get a rough price for evraz or poly from adrs, then for
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/evrzf
divide by gbpusd 1.33 and divide again by 1.14 so 1.95 minutes ago mighgt be 129p equivalent now
https://uk.investing.com/equities/polymetal-international-adr
divide by 1.33 gbpusd and divide again by 1.37 so 4.90 minutes ago might be 269p equivalent now
i dont think evrzf cant be the same as evr with currency conversion,
shows as 1.67usd at open which is 14.30 when shows as 118.65p, gbpusd is 1.33, so seems out by 6%.
at 16.30 close, was 1.575usd or 104.5p, so now at aprox same is around 104p
i would have thought the main risk is if banks tried to topple the likes of evraz and poly when equity values so low as might be hard to raise capital, but there seems to be a huge flow of income over time, wouldnt surprise me if both companies halt dividend for a while to further protect from this, they have both got over a billion in debt, evraz quite a bit more, though lots of cash
sitting around support around 167 level drawn through datapoints from 2012, 2013, 2016, 2017, theres a potential pivot around 76p around late may drawn through datapoints of 2015, 2016, 2017, if it fell to that level pe ratio would be close to 1, has already happened with ferrexpo but i assume something major would have to happen to cause this for evraz, ore price collapse, war stops production, exports block, looks like might have had waves down completed or almost complete, not impossible there could be another even to 80ish, but guessing reversal up might be soon, i dont know when next pay a div. raspadskaya price drop in moscow might mean a lesser special div in nov for many more so if energy prices reduce from april for several months in a reversal wave.
im grateful i sold on 11th feb, div presently for now works out at only 98p rather than £1.93 on the date, 266rub/114gbprub*0.425
there seems to be a lot of overlap with oil moves and gold moves around 20 months earlier, at the micro level not just general moves over time, unless its an incredible coincidence, if this is the case its suggesting another wave up in oil before a possible correction, maybe a move up to late october followed by a correction after 5 waves up to mid nov, then two sets of 5 waves up to end of feb. bp price doesnt exactly follow oil and can oscillate in a range, presently 5 times brent less 65p. On the bp chart there are two channels, one pointing to 435p end dec and another pointing to 501p mid january, both of these pass roughly through the high of round 350p. The recent wave 3 move up of 60p & $12 rise in brent isnt sustainable at this angle and trajectory and channel has broken, and the pattern of moves looks like an enlarged same pattern from 20th march to 26th june that is occuring from 16th july, there the wave 3 up developed a kink and changed slope midway to a shallower slope, but it looks like 1 of 4 most likely scenarios may unfold, bp and brent are sometimes one cycle out of line,
1 - it moves up in a continuation of wave 3 at slope pointing to 501p mid jan but likely rolling over before getting there
2 - it moves up in a continuation of wave 3 at slope pointing to 435p end dec but likely rolling over before getting there
3 - it corrects maybe next week to bottom of channel pointing to 501p, maybe to 337p before rising wave 5
4 - it corrects maybe next week to bottom of channel pointing to 435p, maybe to 321p before rising wave 5
At the moment it seems to be pointing to 435p channel not 501p, but the recent oil spike is pointing to the higher $116 mid january figure. bp share price seems to rise aroubnd 5p per $ brent, not sure how many barrels bp sell or equivalent, but if sales are normally around $200, guessing around 3 bilion per year, so a cold winter over 3 months might be 750m barrels, every $ in price is cash flow after tax of maybe £400m over 20 billion shares is 2p per share, so a rise in oil current contract must be being seen as effecting price by this amount for 7.5 months which i would have thought was unrealistic, maybe the oil price will go to $116 in jan but he bp price only goes to 435p, a rise in oil of $33 in a cold winter, but a rise in share price of 80p, much closer to 2p per dollar than 5p per dollar, for any genuinly interested in analysis and charts and patterns, for the one using one or more usernames (the rumour is one person is tasked with generating huge amounts of posts with multiple personalities) to try to ridicule the use of patterns and charts, banks wouldnt employ physicists and mathematicians to model price moves from past data if it wasnt lucritive for them, has to be more predictive than throwing a dice.
earlier post should have said 20th dec 2020 instead of 20th sept 2020 where oil price had fallen 3.5 dollars at intersection of resistance
one last thing to mention is that another similar situation that may fit the chart possibly with better timing is on 21st sep 2020 when the resistance of all recent data points intersected the rising channel, its similar to this in some ways, oil fell from 52.5 to 49.5 quickly, that equates to about a 5 dollar fall at todays prices, in the last couple of days its fallen about 4.4 dollars quickly to brief pile low so this could be a possible scenario in which case the price could rise for maybe 6 weeks before what may be a major abc correction, the lower line at 79.1 dollars parallel to the resistance line to recent 83ish pivot from previous recent highs runs through 9 data points.
The similarity between moves in bp and gold 19 months ago maybe a coincidence even, but i tried to plot golt to brent, swings do seem to occur in a roughly 19 to 20 month diference, though the author of ths theory said it doesnt cover events like covid etc, but this suggests presently a 20 month lag, the last 6 week move up seems to tie with the 6 week move up in gold to feb 24th 2020, there then follows a 29 day abc pttern, but not the large abc pattern, which might apply in a month or two from now with perhaps huge moves, but the smaller abc pattern is most similar to the pattern that might tie to the mid wave move between 5th and 21st may 2021 in oil, where it fell 5.5 dollars peak to trough, this might suggest a drop of around 6.5 dollars as oil price higher now from 83.5 to 77 dollars in a few days and a drop in bp from 352 to around 320, but if this is correct, it looks like there could be a very big abc correction in a few weeks from now before further moves up to feb perhaps
this is the gold chart, if click 5y as defaults to 1y, the drop 19 months ago possibly starting in oil about now is huge, bigger than other drops, and its an abc shape before going steep upwards for 4 months. Looks like its followed by two sets of 5 waves and abc over 4 months, the directional moves of past weeks roughly match the directional moves in oil with a 1 year 7 month and 4 day lag, its possible the last dip and peak to 83ish brent relates to the dip for 4 days and rise for 6 days but the moves are huge, makes me wonder if a big abc is just starting, markets obviously are very high sentiment, loads of advisers saying buy bp, but wonder if a big correction is starting with the low in later october. one possible scenario that might play out. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold
there is a shallower wider downward channel forming, fits better with underlying upward trend overall, it intersects with the bottom of the new 3 month chnnel pointing to 435p at end of year on 17th oct at 327p, this might be the low if so, might be best time to buy before a rise in wave 5 which im guessing might be the sme gradient as wave 3 that just took place. 327p might equate to 77 to 78 brent if so
the last similar wave 3 top was 20th june, this downward channel forming looks 30% wider, if its 30% longer, it might even reach the 313 level early next week if stays in this, would be 4 trading days down, didnt expect such a downward channel, might instead form a wider shallower channel down. If it does happen and it is followed by an approx 7 days up and 12 days down, might reach 308 around end oct.
might be a decent price to buy for pension investments longer term
figures are not a firm prediction but a possible or even maybe probable scenario/outcome. macro factors can and will trump trends from charts, this sems to apply with the 19 month lag from gold theory. gold 19 months ago went down 4 days, up 7 days, down 13 days, the downmove in 13 days was just over twice that of the 4 days, tricky to place in charts but the 83ish brent price might equate to the top of the start of 4 days down or 13 days dawn approx, if the later, brent might go to 79ish around 19th oct, bp may be in the high teens or twenties, if the former, it might go quite a bit further down by end Oct, though looks like it will go up into feb, the steepness of the jan/feb rise seems more, maybe a crisis will be reached if its cold winter and spot prices spike. Guessing this will not raise bp as much as 5p per $ brent as market will know this is a spike, just like the nat gas price doubling hasnt caused shell price to double. will see.
looks like this might well be the top for bp this cycle, top of new 3 month bp channel, pivot high seems likely for brent, brent gone up another dollar and bp hasnt climbed, bp tends to roll over first. This was (is) a fierce wave 3, might be a bit of a fierce wave 4 down in that it might be quite steep, there are two obvious possible slopes that might form, my guess is that a wave 4 if starting now might go to 316 fast or 322 in about a week and brent might go to 76.5 very quickly or 77.5 over maybe a week, both at the bottom of the channel pointing to 103 dollars brent by year end where 2 resistance lines cross, though might not reach 103. i suspect a wave 5 might be steep as well, possibly reaching 378 in first week of november. I still think brent and bp will be quite a bit higher come feb 2022. i dont think this wave 3 will continue but in case it did, a likely end might be a spike to 364ish tommorow, but i dont think its likely to happen.
one scenario is that this is the top of this cycle at 347, bp stopped at top of new channel, guessing the bottom may be 316.60 on 10th oct to bottom of channel as wave 4, and a wave 5 up afterwards to complete the cycle before an abc correction starting in early november, maybe
347 might be possible be exceeded even if so as wave 3s often exceed wave 1s and wave 5s, but 347 might be the end of this wave presently.
bp tends to roll over before brent, brent has come close to obvious pivot high around 83$, even if brent goes up a bit more, bp might not.
positive opec news might be baked in now into price
noticed not just a potential pivot at 103 dollars and 425p at end of 21, but also potential 116 dollars brent and 501p at end feb 22. This might correspond with the 19 month lag from gold, which shot up for 2 months to peak 19 months before end feb 22. had thought bp price likely to go back to 322p in around next week or so then head higher, but starting to think it might not drop even there, if both brent and bp are presently in wave 3 top not wave 5 top, which looks like 83 dollars in around a week from charts possibly, guessing oil will drop in abc from around 83 dollars if hits in around a week, before another 5 waves to end of year, If 501p is reached in 5 months time, thats a 50% rise. might tie in with a cold winter if it does happen, but rising covid problems if they happen might work against this. will see if happens.
can see a slight downwards slope possibly forming on bp chart, one scenario is it might be followed by a move to resistance line at 360ish around a week from now
for any interested, video of 19 month gold lag theory from past stats, excludes extreme events like delta variant
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z1lnCyyRadw
noticed not just a potential pivot at 103 dollars and 325p at end of 21, but also potential 116 dollars brent and 501p at end feb 22. This might correspond with the 19 month lag from gold, which shot up for 2 months to peak 19 months before end feb 22. had thought bp price likely to go back to 322p in around next week or so then head higher, but starting to think it might not drop even there, if both brent and bp are presently in wave 3 top not wave 5 top, which looks like 83 dollars in around a week from charts possibly, guessing oil will drop in abc from around 83 dollars if hits in around a week, before another 5 waves to end of year, If 501p is reached in 5 months time, thats a 50% rise. might tie in with a cold winter if it does happen, but rising covid problems if they happen might work against this. will see what happens
theres a pivot of three resistance lines at 405p on 20th oct, thats where the top of the channel is pointing since last 2 weeks, i would think it will roll over before then, algorythms often lock onto pivots as a target but not get there but might happen if oil continues to rise. A more likely scenario might be that a cycle top will be reached at intersect of main channels up from march 2020 low and nov 2020 low, at 435p late december, this would also coincide with the meeting of two resistanvce lines on brent at 103 dollars in late december as well, maybe