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intersting recent video on ewetoob by gameoftrades, they think there could be a blow off top in sp500 by end of year, considerably higher than present level, from past charts. I suspect oil could be heading higher, im guessing the best might be $103 before end of year where some resistance lines intersect, BorA are talking about $100 oil again in coming months for several reasons. presently BP looks like it might be coming to the end of a wave 3 up for past 23 sessions, but ive often found the width of the channel can sometimes suggest the approx duration of the channel, and this looks much wider than the likely wave 1 from 20 july to 11 aug, so guessing this wave might have longer to run, 328 would take it to the resistance line through 4 aug and 11 aug highs, but wave 3s often go higher than wave 1s, if this is the end of wave 3 up which i dont thik it is yet though there are 5 mini waves visible, the bottom of the channel seems to be around 298 and rising with time. i suspect BP might be going higher over coming weeks though not in a line
one scenario that might play out, brent has almost touched the low of channel from lows of 2020, looks to be around 65.60, within half a dollar now, this might be completion of wave 4 down and wave 5 up to start, a wave 5 same duration as wave 1 of 4 months could take to late december to reach top of channel. if it did, interestingly it intersects the top of a long term channel through 2015 to 2020 data points at around $103 late december. This would seem to tie in with the 19 month lag of gold price rise, presently BP is at a long term support line as well, around 287p presently. Any share can drop further but wonder if $65.6 and 287p approx will hold, and the next support line at 270 wont be reached and it stops around 287p. $103 brent could give a bp price closer to goldman and barclays forecasts
looks like this same userid being used to try to ridicule again, not on the forum to discuss where the share price might be heading but to try to ridicule. back weeks ago i wrote i suspected that the drop when markets were dropping was a wave 4 down not an A wave, and that it would rise the following week more than the dow by around 4% which it did, but concluded later after looking at brent charts that the later move down was probably a wave C, hence could see a channel had formed and pointing to 342 if it stayed in that channel, there is a major resistance line from pre covid at 342, then when it dropped later that day below 323, i concluded the assumption that that previous wave down weeks earlier was a wave 4 after all as i had previously suspected, and that a wave C was still to occur fully, which it seems to have done last week, i think this is the most likely scenario, however, there is some mention of the 262 figure by some in relation to a gap, and looking at the brent chart, one interpretation of waves as what might be a wave 1 top on 28/5/21 but the wave 1 potentially might not have peaked until 16/6/21, this would mean there is a small probability that the downmove last week was not a wave C but a wave 2 of 5 in line with drop from 8/3/21 to 23/3/21. I think this unlikely but its possible, not a prediction by me as such but a small probability this occurs, the level potentially arrived at could be 262 if this unlikely move occurrred. Its a pitty that some userids are used to try to ridicule rather than discuss outcomes respectfully from analysis, and some seem to think people should see only one possible outcome direction for price, then again rumour has it that most userids are one person. From the lows of brent in april 2020, there are 2 sets of 5 waves up and a corrective 5 waves down, then two sets of wave 5 up and a corrective wave 5 down, then either a corrective 5 wave move sideways up or a 5 wave up, with abc correction then a 5 wave up, it waits to be seen whether this is to be followed by an abc down already occuring or a larger 5 wave down. The peak in the cycle is likely to be around the end of 2021 in oil before a big correction where it follows gold moves with a 19 month lag, and a likely smaller move down around oct 2021 following gold move down 19 months before, this suggests bp rising generally to sept 21, and again nov 21 to feb 22, and for a rise in brent to september would suggest that there is more time for this wave 3 or 5 in brent to run. The drop from 8/3/21 to 23/3/21 is either a wave 4 down or a partial wave splitting the wave 3 in half as it never made it to the bottom of the channel. If the wave 3 is split in half, its not impossible that we are in a 5 wave down to 66ish but i think this is unlikely. Its interesting that the peaks in bp seem to occur in cycles maybe 2 weeks or so before brent in recent charts, this suggsts bp might peak before brent does if it does before a drop in october thereabouts.
as some are talking about a gap at 262, i dont think this is likely but in case you havent seen this on charts, if draw a line through the peaks of 8/3/21 and 6/7/21, and same parallel line through low of 23/3/21, this suggests a possible drop in brent to 66.20, it took 5 waves down over 15 days, the wave 1 and wave 2 seem to match, i dont think its likely, but if it did, would be a drop of $9 brent, or around 45p on bp, would go from 307p current to 262p possibly, i dont think its likely, but just mention it as numbers seem to fit 262p
the same userid being used just to try to ridicule again. the person who brought to attention about gap at 262 cant be me, as i merely commented such a gap at 262 is unlikely to be reached i would have thought, i pay no attention to gaps as often not filled though it was claimed under another userid that there is one at this level. The person using this userid to try to ridicule must be refering to them.
why im being asked for a firm prediction when future is uncertain is odd, but my best guess is that over the next 47 days we might see 367p at a peak from previous cycle, if there arent huge changes in general indices, oil price trends, huge covid lockdown implications..
This past 47 days cycle which so far looks like wave c to wave c on brent has seen brent rise alot but bp fall, i suspect this is a more one off situation as the ratio of rdsb to bp has risen from 4.07 to 4.61, this could be a reversion back to roughly what it was on 3rd jan 2020 at 4.66 so any future rising cycle in brent over next 47ish days i'd expect would see bp rise perhaps to a cycle peak of 367p
rumour is that many of the userids on the site are one person GLA
If looking at charts & channels was nonsense and gobbledygook, wouldntve thankfully booked tens of thousands of profits in recent weeks
moves do occur in cycles, though extreme events can move differently from trends, rely on own analysis only, happy pension investing
may be a coincidence but one of the main trend lines on brent intersects a line drawn throught the lows of past 3 days at 71.25 today.
i see where brent is bouncing, resistance line through peaks of 7/6/21, 5/5/21, 29/3/21, parallel support line through lows of 23/5/21 and 24/5/21. there are 3 outliers it might drop to but could bounce here. 71.70, 70.98, 70.68 are todays lows for these if this fails.
interestingly if this holds to end sept may mean brent $91 at peak before possible october drop, bp around 395p, happy pension investing
but when i look at the 5 year gold chart, the drop in gold occurred in the month of march2020, 19 months on from that as oil seems to lag gold 19 months, suggests oil will rise to end sept, fall october, rise for 4 months to feb 2022. This suggests theres time for 2 more 47 day cycles before october, that suggests a possible 77.81$+7.6+7.6 = $92, at 5*brent-60p = 405p, and thats before any rise to feb 2022 where some are suggesting a higher spike around the end of 2021. rely only on own investigations, happy pension investing
looked at brent as bp seems to move roughly 5p per $ brent though recently as i think a one off the share price has moved from brent*5-25p to brent*5-60p. So last wave A was 69.87 to 66.55 in 2 days 12/5/21-13/5/21 and the last wave C was 70.28 to 64.63 from 18/5/21 to 21/5/21. This wave A from 76.23 to 73.39 from 25/6/21 to 29/6/21, and so far wave C has fallen from 77.84 to 72.67 from 7/6/21 to 7/7/21. so wave A this time is 284/332 =86% of size, so this wave C is so far 517/565 = 91%, so wave C might have already bottomed. That said, there is no obvious trendline meeting the wave C low so far though there is an obvious support at 71.17 sloping upwards.
If this is end of a 5 wave up 3 wave down cycle over past 47 days, peak to peak saw a rise of $7.60, 77.81 to 70.21, so if this is repeated in next wave cycle, brent might peak at 77.81 plus 7.60 = $85.41 roughly, around late August, this would be prior to labor day in us when demand for petrol tends to wane, 5*brent-60p = 367p on bp maybe. Many think oil will rise further again to the end of 2021..
Someone mentioned gap at 262, to get there might require brent at $64.40 I would have thought this probably unlikely in near future.
happy pension investing
another userid used to try to ridicule and someone who doesnt seem to understand the use of charts and channels
thronegames, i reckoned there was around a 5xbrent-25p price for bp for months, but now looks more like 5xbrent-60p. Interestingly the ratio of shell to bp has gone up by around 10% in past weeks so shell seems to have kept proportionally closer to brent moves, but bp lagging. im guessing investors are assuming lower long term returns from green than oil. Oil dropped $3 so might indicate 15p off of bp, looking at charts i wonder if a wave 1 was from 23/4/21 to 10/5/21 and this drop is wave C ending small cycle and a wave 5 similar to wave 1 about to occur, would seem to possibly indicate a move to 342ish next mon/tue/wed if magnitude the same 311p plus 30p = 341p
the 312.7 figure was using the daily chart, on the 15min chart the floor was a penny or two lower, there is another support line on the daily at 308p, notice the adrs are down slightly since close, i think the $3 oil drop explains a 15p price drop, happy pension investing
touched 312.70 ish , might be a floor
that rising channel it was in today still had a missing wave from start of cycle, assumed a tiny wave i could see must have been a full wave, but mentioned weeks ago that big drop when all markets fell was likely a wave 4 down for BP not an A wave, but the cycles were one wave out from the brent moves, but this drop does indicate that was a wave 4 and this is a wave C down. The top today is part of a channel through 28/6 and 7/1 and the botton of it might be 312.7 as the bottom of that channel goes through loads of points including low of 30/6. rely on your own investigations but wouldnt surprise me it bounces off of 312.7 today or slightly higher tommorow possibly.
wouldnt surprise me if this doesnt drop below 323.1 today and might head to 342 by monday 12th july as a pivot top, might not happen, it looks like its in a possible wave 5 channel that hits important resistance from pre covid data at 342 around monday 12th july, will see
suspect this might stop at 94, is support line parallel below channel from late april drawn through lows of early nov 2020, may be floor
looking at waves, suspect a major abc down during start of covid, then wave 1 up and wave 3 up in nov 2020 and feb 2021, both roughly 70p rises following turn down, wondering if a wave 5 imminent to new post covid highs. im guessing the rise in aug 2020 was part of c wave correction and not wave 1, if was wave 1, then wave 5 has already occurred and major abc underway, but suspect another rise soon.
given oil is in steep upward trend and may hit 90ish in next 2 months and possibly higher still late 2021, guessing may affect iag costs
i think i can see 5 waves up and possible completion of C wave yesterday and today on brent which at the moment is approx touching bottom of a channel if doesnt make further low, this looks like it started 39 calendar days ago, 26 days up for wave 1, 13 days for wave 2 correction abc, extrapolating that forward, another 26 days wave 3, 13 days wave 4, 26 days wave 5 would take brent to a peak of around $90 just befor labor day which is usually when summer driving demand falls, im guessing oil may drop then as gold fell sharply 19 months before and rise again to end of 2021.
At $90 brent guessing bp may be around 400p on basis of brent*5-50p or thereabouts. If brent rises further later on in 2021/early 2022, guessing bp may be higher, wondering what higher oil will do to rr & airlines as increasing cost for them.
was looking at which airline to put some funds into but has anyone here looked at the long term chart, this is a steep downwards channel with top currently around 1100 but looks like maybe near top of wave B, over months im guessing could drop quite a bit if starting a wave C down. In the past there has been a substantial drop each time this resistance line was reached, channel is falling from 2013, 1100 is top of wave B it seems and same position in channel as top of wave 1 in early 2015 and higher position in channel for top of waves 3 and 5 in mid 2018 and early 2020. i chose not to buy this time.
yep, opened at 323 is exactly top of channel over past days, not inconcevable this is the high of today, hopefully not. The channel looks like it intersects the downwards resistance from precovid data around 324.4 tommorow, maybe.
uk close was 3.21 at 4.30 adrs were 27.46 now 27.62 guessing 3.23 open if nothing changes, gbp/usd roughly unchanged, may be close to what you sold at. if get a chance is quite revealing and predictive looking at the channels for brent from low, saudi minister was very negative about western attempts to reduce fossil fuel usage, wonder what leverage could be bought to bare on opec countries to reduce output for emmissions claimed reasons, this would drive prices up, maybe this is part of the plan, higher prices encourage renewables, the energy producers would do well out of it, shares should rise