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ive had a look at chart for recent highs and low turns and I suspect price is presently in a slightly downwards sloping channel from 285 to 313, I might sell today hopefully temporarily if it touches 313, my guess is it may bounce off this. This is roughly the range that ceders mentioned also, he may have seen this channel, or its roughly the high and low of past week or so.
5 waves and abc relate to sp500 not bp charts to avoid any confusion
if it passes 309 approx, it looks like the next upwards sloping resistance may be presently around 319p though over time this line is sloping higher, this used to be a support line weeks ago in that lots of daily ranges sit on the line, I think ceders 320p upper estimate while oil is not above 45 may well be pretty likely, but twice it has spiked up to the top of the wide channel in past months since the crash, and it isn't impossible it could spike at 383p at the top of that channel, even iag, easyjet and carnival are all rallying presently, I suspect there will by US stimulus until the election around November, and im guessing this present likely third 5 wave move up could be at least half way through, so guessing bp may retrace several percent with the third abc retracement once it finally ends sometime between now and November I would guess.
hi lenin, no one knows if it will go up or down but there are algorythms that trading computers use which can indicate where price may pivot, if goes up or down, these often appear on lines at same gradient to existing support/resistance lines relative to a previous pivot point, interesting this morning the 309p is at the resistance of the steep downward channel top since early june. I think what ceders has said could well be roughly indicative, the channels arent totally horizontal though.
hope so. computer algorythms have a role in price moves but it looks like the low of today is exactly on line parallel to that between march and early aug lows but deviated by that from the low of session the day before the march lows relative to the march low, i wonder if this may act as support, given stimulus info may be released in future, or if may even touch the fractionally lower level at around 285 which exactly corresponds to deviation from this line of the 3 daily lows (2 from march and 1 from Aug) that are the closest closes to the lows of those two months. Interestingly moving this slightly upward moving channel up from lows gives a present range of 286 to 330, and resistance of this intersects with 7 daily highs/lows so may even act as a future channel top, if it doesnt continue to fall lower. sorry i cant post a pic of this, a pic is worth a thousand words. There is a historic support line that became resistance that is exactly the same gradient between lows of march and aug, so this must be how the algorythms moved to the aug low. If Aug low doesnt hold, the large channel of past months may suggest a move to 239
yes, i think you could be right, its closed pretty much exactly at the 296 support, hopefully it moves up soon, it should do in the long term i would have thought, its easy to buy and hold for pension but with this much volatility, selling tens of thousands of shares and buying back a few pence cheaper a day or two later has a big effect. Its one of those companies that everything can go wrong with an extreme event, had position on 7500 shares back with the macondo blowout, that was volatile, but i suspect the climate change litigation could pose a bigger problem going forward than this type of event reoccurring, hopefully this will be rejected in courts, there is already a lot of tax on fuels which benefits many, theres a lot of evidence that increased co2 is helping plant and crop growth, and no definite proven link between co2 and warming as far as i can see, im guessing oil and gas will be extracted for decades until unviable, though i wonder if a biden gov may try to stop some production & speed up renewables quicker than the market wants to move....eu are looking at bank restrictions
I think you could be right, guessing spiked over 300p as many tried to buy after less than expected div cut announcement, 1/4 times rdsb is only 285p, I wonder if more downside ahead, hopefully not, 296 hasn't held intraday, 2 days ago us court gave more credence to litigation over climate change, some say all the actions could exceed market caps of all majors combined.
has just reached 296, if it doesn't now go up from here, guessing it could be potentially heading to 275 though wouldn't have thought so. before covid, ratio of rdsb to bp was 4.5, its now just under 4, rdsb div cut of 66% dropped rdsb price from 1450 to 1200 or approx. 17%, and pulled bp down 10%, to a ratio of 4, bp has cut div by 3/4 of cut of rdsb, guessing ratio of rdsb to bp share price shouldn't perhaps be below 4, though ive heard bp cost of production breakeven can be lower.
and if it does bounce up from 296 today, guessing it may go up to top of upwards sloping channel from march lows presently 275-320 approx., in coming days if sp500 doesn't roll over in an abc in coming days. im guessing effect of stimulus may be muted and already priced in as alleviation against all the negatives of economy being partly closed down. guessing will take something very positive to move to 383 at top of wide months old channel again, has topped twice so far
had a closer look, the lower of the two resistance lines was 315, so it looks like it bounced down off that, this is still since early june in a very downward sloping wide channel presently 240-315 in width, it hit the top yesterday, it may move up out of this soon back into the almost flat slightly upward wide channel 296-383 width, im guessing support is 296 presently, though if the sp500 peaks soon, it looks like it may be well through its third set of 5 wave up from march lows, and might even retrace at least 200 points in abc wave, like it has for the past 2 sets of abc waves, this could pull it below 296 again. Guessing a stimulus plan could pull up oil price and market in general though, if it goes ahead in near future. Do wonder if all the climate related litigation against oil firms being planned could have downward pressure on oil and gas shares also.
looks like there are a couple of resistance lines , one sloping up and one sloping down presently intersecting at around 320p, wonder if it will bounce. Im guessing bp and rdsb are probably likely to gain quite a bit over years to come, oil prices usually rise for periods, but there are some concerns, one is the drive for litigation against oil companies in courts globally for literally trillions, more than all of their market caps, this is partly why govs are declaring climate emergencies, I personally don't think there is a proven link between co2 and warming, though I think there should be a massive tree and plant growing plan globally if were burning old buried plant matter, and also the move to renewables, I wonder if this could outpace the population growth globally, I would have thought bp and shell would be better placed for geothermal rather than hydrogen, I wonder if hydrogen will turn out not to be commercially viable. theres also a glut of shale that can be brought on line in future which could keep oil price limited will below the $100 mark. I think the div advantage fpr bp over rdsb helps raise price but there are I think other things that can lead to a higher yield for bp going forward. I don't know if you've researched the litigation climate change concerns going on, ive got a 4:1 ratio of large holding bp:rdsb. I may sell at 320p and try to buy at a bit of a discount as this may be a resistance level. I also wonder if sp500 is 2% from a top. Also biden winning is going to reduce support for oil and gas suppliers I would have thought, though this may be increased taxes, less subsidies or it may reduce supply and raise prices. Interesting to see what happens.