Member Info for flyingmachine

I personally do not think that most of the April 30th 122k test figures were antigen tests, supplied mostly by Primer design, Randox and Roche. I think Porton Down are the only lab carryng out a small number of antibody tests currently (community sampling), perhaps 3000 or so. This will all change very soon, once PHE fully validate the Mologic ELISA test (imminent I think), then antibody testing will really take off.

Piper, they are looking at the 30th Aprildaily test numbers which were reported in the daily briefing yesterday. The 38685 tests you refer to are the swab (antigen) test numbers done at the Mobile sites around the country.

Pro88, I can't give you top marks but agree with your sentiment.

1) ODX working with Mologic to manufacture ELISA lab based antibody test. This the lab based test, so is not the 10-20min POC antibody test. RE; RNS on 20th April. Has achieved CE mark , RE RNS on 27th April

2) ODX is working with the RTConsortium to produce the POC 10-20min antibody test. RE RNS 9th April

Procure, Not correct I don't think. I believe the 20th April RNS is an agreement between Mologoc and ODX to design and manufature the ELISA lab tests. ODX are in the RTConsortium to help design and manufacture the 'Bentley' standard POC tests.

Lifesgoody, look at it this way....Mologic have designed and built a car with two passenger seats eg a Reliant Robin, to be manufactured in the UK for rest of the world and in Senegal for the African continent. But PHE specification says that car must be able to seat at least four passengers in luxurious comfort, so the RTC are currently designing a car similar to a Bentley to be built in the UK.

Lifegoody, look at Mologic partners for their POC RTC...."Following rapid assessments in the UK, the technology will be shipped to global validation partners including the Institut Pasteur de Dakar in Senegal"....

No.

The RTC POC antibody test is expected to be at a higher level of sensitivity and specificity to meet the PHE requirements. The quote from Prof John Bell reported in the DM Online on the 26th April, suggested the RTC is looking at 99% sensitivity or better. So higher standard and higher cost (£10) for the RTC test that ODX is expected to manufacture.

Love it.......comedy gold! Bzn is the Mr Bean of these boards!

He sold out of NCYT on or around 16th April.

If Nova can keep selling all they can manufacture, then we can expect £252m revenue by the end of June and then £72m at least every month from July when manufacturing is 8m tests per month. If manufacturing needs to increase (which they say they can do) then revenue will be even greater. Our Mcap is £276m today, that will be exceeded by the revenue around June/July time!

Theroller, I agree. Value will be added to Nova continuously throughout the year, especially after manufacturing and sales goes up to 8m test/month from June/July. This should equate to around £60m profit/month at that time, then month by month this will have an positive impact to the share price.

I am happy for Nova to produce and sell 8m test/month from June/July....£60m/month profit from July, it will all add up to over £500m profit in 2020!

Profit per year will have an effect on share price (profit/share), and therefore Mcap. But there are other things that affect share price and therefore Mcap, but I would think that with profits of £500m in 2020 (but remember this level is only sustainable for the period of the COVID and for when test are required) the Mcap should be a minimum of £500m, and very likely significantly more.

Vendome, where do you see the share price of Nova at the end of the year with over £500m in profit from test sales? Profit likely grow to over £60m/month from July onwards.

I think some folks are wondering about Profit margin for the tests. Nova reported last year that Primerdesign's gross margin grew 3% year-on-year to 84%. If we take this profit margin then Nova have made over £75m profit from the £90m sales reported so far. On the basis that they sell all the tests they make this year, by my calculations about 68m tests in 2020 (assuming they do not grow the max capacity further above 8m tests/month planned, which they appear to be able to do if needed), then that comes to about £612m revenue in 2020, with profit about £514m, just for 2020 sales! Testing will likely be required well into 2021, so even more profit to come!

MB, your price for POC tests are a bit high. Take a look at this....
https://www.clinicalomics.com/topics/molecular-dx-topic/infectious-disease-diagnostics/mologic-readies-fast-inexpensive-covid-19-antibody-tests-in-uk/
Suggests Mologic aspiration to sell POC antibody test at £1, or near to. Not £10 that you are suggesting.

So sales roughly £12m per week, with a current manufacturing capacity of 4m tests per month. When capacity is at 8m tests per month to meet expanding orders and demand then can see £20m per week sales, or £80m per month....

There is of course the ELISA lab test kits to consider but we don't have a prospective UK order quantity for those and no proper indication of price to the government but it could be between £5-£10 pounds, so better profit margin from ODX for the lab based tests. Also, if some or all of the maximum 46000/day manufacture capacity is exported, and say around £3 profit on each test to ODX then you could be looking at about £1m/week profit to ODX, so that is much better support for £30M MCAP increase today. But as I say, no complete numbers for ELISA lab tests yet, so these are just my 'profit margin' scribblings.

Take a look at this....
https://www.clinicalomics.com/topics/molecular-dx-topic/infectious-disease-diagnostics/mologic-readies-fast-inexpensive-covid-19-antibody-tests-in-uk/
Suggests Mologic aspiration to sell POC antibody test at £1, or close to. Not sure how many of these kits ODX will manufacture with the other 3 manufacturing partners in the UK. But lets say 40% of the 50 million that was touted by the DM - that suggests amaximum of £20M profit for ODX but the MCAP for ODX went up by £30m today. Not certain ODX will be manufacturing for other counries as Mologic will partner with other manufacturing bases abroad eg Senegal. Read the note from Mologic above, think and make your decisoions carefully.