Member Info for flyingmachine

Bojo, could even be sooner once folks take a moment to check and compare the de-risked GDR Mcap (only £67m even with all the placement shares) against others (some of whom are still 'at risk' yet hold a Covid premium 6 times the GDR Mcap). The relative small number of shares will mean the SP trajectory will move even more rapidly than normal. The clock is definitely ticking, not much more time to wait!

samolly2, I expect those who understand risk will be coming the other way, into GDR. AVCT now looking 'toppy' with an unproven Covid premium which is 6 times greater than the current de-risked GDR Mcap. AVCT is not de-risked and has no guarantee of success which I think is being overlooked or dismissed by many of the 'herd' over there. So, switching to GDR is not an 'unwise' move.

Shampoo, nothing wrong with that. Anyone holding today will still reap the benefits very soon.

x66rjp, from what has been happening over the past couple of weeks I think a lot of the 'action' has already happened on the placing shares. I also think that the CEO and brokers will be thinking that the company must move on past the placing quickly so that the company and investor's focus can move onto sales of the PCR test, as well as their other products. I am expecting therefore the placing shares to be added to the market on the 28th May, rather than any delay. Even after this placing the Mcap of GDR will be around £64m, which compared to other similar companies in the Covid space is mighterly low. Plus, with only around 43m shares the SP will re-rate even more quickly.

Based on the current SP and the shares in issue from Thursday 28th, the Mcap of GDR will still be around £64m. Incredibly low for a company with a top tier approved Covid PCR test being sold now, other products available and on sale plus others in the pipeline, existing contracts with US DOD, and so on. You only have to compare this mighterly low Mcap with similar companies with already approved Covid tests or even companies with no approved test yet, this going to go back up quickly very soon. Time to top up if you can, or hold onto your shares, don't miss out on the SP climb that will happen very soon.

...and don't forget, stood side by side with other top tier PCR tests, the GDR test has some unique advantages around simplicity (less steps, no reagent preparation), consistency and efficiency of testing, plus not forgetting its temperature stability. So, the GDR test will stand out well in the huge world market for PCR testing.

A recent clear and very interesting article, highlighting the challenge and difficulty of creating a quick and accurate antigen test which is also sensitive. Hence why the FDA's sensitivity target is only 80%, which means 1 in 5 tests comes back with a false negative.....

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/coronavirus-antigen-tests-quick-and-cheap-too-often-wrong?utm_campaign=ScienceNow&utm_source=JHubbard&utm_medium=Facebook

Fergus Walsh tests......I believe the test on the right is the Mologic test, the one in the middle is similar to the RTC test (using buffer drops in a two well system) but I do not think this is the actual RTC test (they wouldn't be giving it to journos right now), the one on the left looks like the Bio Panda test.

Supervz, thanks for your thoughts on this. So we are on similar lines of thinking.

Technick, seems the recent CE Mark RNS was correct with the specs for sensitivity and specificity after all and the technical specs on the GDR website were initially wrong!! I have just noticed that the GDR website has been updated to state Sensitivity 100% and Specificity 98.2%! This is actually good because even though both parameters need to be high the sensitivity is most important in testing if you have the virus. Hence, why GDR say it is in top tier of PCR tests.
Link to updated technical specs is here.....
https://www.genedrive.com/assays/sars-cov-2-kit-assay.php

Supervz, agree. I have put a lot of thought into the placement shares impact on the 28th. My own conclusion up to now is that the majority of the impact has been factored in through IIs churning their shares and making a quick buck already, the expectation that most private buyers will use this to being down their average SP investment with the full knowledge that GDR are now beginning their worldwide sales journey so will not be signficantly selling. I also looked at the impact on AVCT when their placement shares hit the market on the 24th April - their SP went up around 10% that day! So, on balance my own view is that impact to GDR SP on the 28th will have a limited or no downside but is likely to go in an upward trajectory fairly quickly. Would like to understand others views on this?

fairview, apart from just the sheer size of the market, PCR type testing carried out by professionals in the lab or on mobile POC testing instruments is the current gold standard. 'Rapid' POC testing that is targeted to be carried out at home by non-skilled consumers I believe can never match that standard purely because of the non-skilled consumer element of the test. Doing 'at home' swab tests by the consumers themselves has already illustrated the potential to lead to unreliable or invalid tests. Consistency and reliability are particularly important when checking if someone has the virus. No doubt, a rapid POC 'at home' test, if one is proven to meet minimum sensitivity and selectivity requirements, will have a place in certain consumer based use cases but they will certainly not replace 'gold standard' professional tests.

13thmonkey, it is more than the chemistry and biology works - they must be combined, to work together, consistently and accurately on a non-skilled consumer device to provide the final reliable result. That is what will take the time hence Alistair trying to put some reasonable expectations on timescales in his presentation Q&A. So that is still where the risk is and it mustn't be underestimated how hard it will be to achieve that. Once it is proven, so will its value.

Shareseeker, not just quick and cheap. It has to have the right level of selectivity and sensitivity to make it useful in any particular use case where it might be used. The LFT may, or may not, compete with the highest levels of specificity and sensitivity found in labs and professional mobile testing solution (where an instrument is used and where some mobile solutions only take 20 mins) particularly when it is a consumer self-test. So the final specificity and sensitivity levels balanced with the error margin involved with consumer self-testing will determine the use cases where the LFT will be 'useful' and recommended, but one cannot assume that every use case will be filled by the potential LFT test.

Technik, infact they made a mistake in the RNS, it's the other way round - specificity 100% and sensitivity 98.2%, Here are the technical specs for the GDR product on their website....

https://www.genedrive.com/assays/sars-cov-2-kit-assay.php

Scart, yes, and by my calculation if they can manufacture and sell between 4million - 8million tests per month, that's a profit of between £57.6m - £115.2m over that 3 month period.

GDR RNS on 25th March says..... "Based on discussions with sizable third party suppliers the Company expects it could have the ability to ramp quickly to high production volumes of over 10,000 tests per hour, and thus this could be both a material revenue generator for the Company and significant contributor to addressing the global pandemic."

"sizeable third party suppliers", so seem confident of manufacturing at least 10,000 tests per hour.

£57.6m !! not £57.6

Being conservative, at a rate of 10000 test per hour (not full manufacturing shifts or 7 days a week) that's around 1m test per week, or 4m test per month (but likely more than that, just being conservative).

If they sold all the tests @£8 x 4m per month, is £32m revenue per month.
Profit margin (say same as NCYT's) @60% gives profit of £19.2m per month.
Profit in 3 months = £57.6

If the manufacturing goes to 8m tests month, with equivalent sales gives £115.2m over 3 months.

...ahh forgot, they are convertible, so it is as you say. Speed reading whilst I am working!