Member Info for flyingmachine

cooncan, how will you test all those that have had the virus and do not know they have had it (asymptomatic) or all those who have had the virus but have never been tested? How do you test the changing levels of antibody in your system over a period of time? These tests are complimentary to each other, both are needed and one does not replace the other. If you did more proper research this may become clearer to you.

tuan, if you form your own investment opinion by doing your own research or by following the research done by others (and double checking it is accurate, that is important!) and have sufficient confidence in your investment balanced against your own risk appetite, then you need not be too concerned about why others are selling. If you have bought at 40, then you have nothing to fear in this share.

btw, are you from Malaysia or Indonesia? If so, then...."Helo dan selamat datang"

...or take a look yourself and make your own conclusions, slide 19 :

https://www.abpi.org.uk/media/8206/update-on-the-national-testing-programme-and-covid-19-surveillance-slides-for-distribution.pdf

....to be clear - usability and validity of LFT self-testing is completed upon the completion of the Level 4 sub-study phase of REACT2. Sub-study 4 is the first point in the REACT2 programme that assesses validity - I read that as comparing results against lab based antibody tests which is what folks have been reporting earlier today. Level 5 sub-study does not have any further element of usability and validity in its scope. Hence why I see completion of Level 4 sub-study as key, it is now underway and it won't be long now before that is completed.

The REACT2 study is currently underway. It consists of 5 sub-studies and from the evidence today we are probably at Study 4 level which is the Usability and Validity of LFT antibody self-testing in Key workers (eg nurses). Study 5 is the final study which will target 100000 random people in the national population using self-test LFT. When they get to Level 5 they will already have high degree of confidence in the RTC POC test but that will be final seal of approval for 'design freeze'. That is my own reading of the current situation. It won't be too long now, we'll get there.

I would be cautious about predicting 100% sensitivity for Avacta's POC antigen test, since antigen testing has always played second string to PCR testing which is regarded as the 'gold standard'. Even the closest competitor to Avata, Sona Nanotech, which all of you are already aware of, have stated in their on literature (May 25th) for their upcoming POC antigen test using their proprietary gold nano-rod technology which they say improves sensitivity of their test by 100%, it states that the limitation of antigen testing is "Sensitivity and specificity lower than PCR" (page 10).

https://sonanano.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Sona_Nanotech_investor_deck_May_2020.pdf

...confusingly the same page stills says further down that....

"Issued Share Capital: The total number of genedrive plc ordinary shares of 1.5p each in issue is 34,870,701....and....
"This data was updated on 22nd April 2020."

I've sent them an email to upadte this page correctly.

Dave77, the GDR PCR test has to be in the mix to support this enhanced 200,000 per day testing capacity, not least with its shorter time to result (100 mins) without compromising on reliability and accuracy of result. Compare this 'time to result' to Primer Design/Novacyt PCR (2 hours), Randox PCR (2.5 hours) and Roche PCR (3.5 hours). The Gov and PHE will be well aware of this.

Newbie, this ichortec test and associated device seems still be in concept and early development, available for research purposes only. No clear technical specs, nowhere near ready so I wouldn't lose any sleep over it.

Another headline today which suggests test, test, test is going to be the mantra for a very long while....

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/30/could-nearly-half-of-those-with-covid-19-have-no-idea-they-are-infected

robortsmith, this test is an antigen LAMP test from Optigene that tests if you have the active virus. It is currently under trial but it is not a competitor to ODX.

Ethio, if Monday passes with no further Holding RNSs, that reflect any further II sales on the 29th May, I think that will be a good signal that the most significant II selling has stopped. This was also discussed in my 'Clear skies from Monday 1st June' post earlier this morning.

Well Roche managed to get their Covid test through the FDA EUA process in 1 day....

https://science.slashdot.org/story/20/03/14/2251237/us-regulators-quickly-approve-roches-new-and-faster-covid-19-test

Not saying GDR will be as quick but I am hopeful that it will not be as long as 5 weeks. My take, perhaps 2-3 weeks at most.

I spent some time last night going through all the Holding RNSs since the 5th May (when propose placing was announced) to re-confirm my thoughts that the forward selling and turnover of placement shares that hit the market on the 28th May was now complete (or as near as), leaving clear skies and sunshine ahead for the LTHs.

I noted that on the 28th May both BGF and Calculus ended up with the same number of shares they held pre-placing, with Calculus on the day shedding a further 600,000 shares, suggesting to me that they both had completed their 'turnover'. Both Spreadex and John Rylands, on the 28th May RNSs, settled at slightly more shares than their respective positions since 22nd April. The amount of heavy trading activity over the 28th and 29th May would I think have been sufficient to have mopped up any PIs placement shares 'turnover' (1.25m shares or less). HSBC popped in and out of share threshold visibility over 4 days in mid-May and other significant shareholders showed no signs of share holding movement.

If I am correct it should be plainer sailing from the Monday and would be re-enforced if no further (downward) Holding RNSs appear on Monday. That would leave the good ship 'GDR' to full steam ahead, powered by upcoming further approvals (FDA EUA!) and world-wide sales of its top tier and unique Covid PCR test.

Yeah, XEL....an utter car crash in the end. But valuable lessons learnt.

I was in Xcite energy (XEL), that turned out to be a disaster but learnt alot from that experience.

Dr DMS, this was posted on another board recently. You may find it interesting and useful for understanding the AIM market place......
Myles McNulty, quite well known as an AIM investor, produced the following which is an introduction to AIM and might help you to understand this market :
https://www.share-talk.com/aim-for-success-part-1-a-blog-by-aim_chaos/#gs.6x4c9j
https://www.share-talk.com/aim-for-success-part-2-a-blog-by-aim_chaos/#gs.5lwhp4
https://www.share-talk.com/aim-for-success-part-3-a-blog-by-aim_chaos/#gs.6x4mnl

The CEO has already stated that the USA is one of the many key (high populous) markets the company is initially targeting. . We should therefore look out for FDA EUA being obtained very quickly indeed, especially as all the validation documentation is available from the completetd CE Mark approval. I expect to see FDA EUA for the GDR testl next week. When that arrives, the fuse paper on sales in the USA will have surely been lit.

Great post Rollininit. Thanks for taking the time to put that together.
I want to be fair to the NCYT team though, I had thought that the profit margin for their test is now around 50-60% and that's what many of the folks over there have been using recently in their own calculations. Not sure where the near zero profit for NCYT came from, but let's not be unkind to them. They have been a great model for where the GDR Mcap can get to.

ok, just looked back at a couple of earlier posts today which suggest most folks are using 50-60% profit margin in their profit calculations, with no come back from anyone. That ties up with my own belief of what it is now. Still, if anyone thinks that is not in the ball park, please advise. Thanks.