Member Info for f15jcm

Great set of numbers this morning that slightly beat EPS estimates but market reaction is subdued. Kind of supports my theory that this stock is fully valued. Will they be able to sustain the same rate of organic growth? Time will tell...

FORT seems to have got off very lightly given the PBT guidance has been reduced to about 10% below analyst consensus. I put orders in at 240p & 225p, hoping to catch any spike down. Clearly I was being over ambitious.

He seems almost unbelievably adept at avoiding profit warnings (see his trades in SHOE). Stops don't protect against gaps down. I suspect he makes more from his seminars than he does in the market.

Sold 2/3 of my TEG holding this morning as it's looking a bit peaky. Will re-buy some on any decent pullback.

I was referring to the industry wide FCA crackdown announced today, not the known issues specific to Lookers (which might well have triggered it): https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50052375

I think VTU looks the best bet in this sector. LOOK have already abandoned the buyback and will soon be taking the hatchet to the dividend. Insider buying on its own doesn't turn a business (or indeed a market) around.

I've gone short in light of this having an adverse effect on the company, of which motor finance accounts for 23% of the loan book. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50052375

I'd be more concerned with FCA regulation of car finance than with short positions.

Another good day today on reasonable volume. Was there something about infrastructure spending in the Queen's speech?

Not going to happen, no tangible equity on the balance sheet to return.

(and I'm back in the black). They'll be able to do another placing now! I say that only half tongue in cheek.

Cheap but cash collection needs to improve, working capital movements were horrendous. Interesting to see if the drive to move away from plastic packaging helps or hinders in the long term.

I hold but concerned he's buying companies on US valuations going into a downturn. In any event, will value get reflected on the London market? WPP trades on a modest valuation and unlike S4, they are profitable.

Hats off to him on raising the money at a premium though.

I read the interims. The lenders are gradually reducing the debt covenant to 2x EBITDA by December 2020. If the economy heads south the company will fail the test before then. Look at today's updates from RWA and PAGE and how the market reacted. Also note that, unlike STAF, they have strong balance sheets. A profit warning here will provide a much more adverse reaction as it will threaten going concern status.

Not sure why all my posts were removed?! Perhaps admins don't like me being short SCT?

Looks awful and as you point out, being almost entirely UK and Ireland focused, this will almost certainly come a cropper with a no deal Brexit. Opened a short position this morning as I think another equity raise or bankruptcy looks eminently possible.

I like the growth, cash position here and BOD holdings here. Trading since IPO has been excellent though maybe a seasonal business? Made a small investment and will look to add on any pullback.

Brexit? Not likely to affect an Australian domiciled company operating exclusively in Brazil. Can't think of a more Brexit proof share on the market.

Very reassured by that video and decided to add. Volumes here almost non-existent.

The revenue and most of the gross margin is still there but everything else is horrendous. Could be very attractive to a bidder who could realise cost synergies in distribution, retail etc. Maybe someone like Next? They bought Lipsy and there's already a tie up. Probably too high end for Mike Ashley. Definitely value in the brand but I don't fancy the chances of current management turning it around. There have been rumors of Ray Kelvin taking it private.

Sounds reasonable. Poor cash flow is likely to harm the valuation unfortunately, at least in the short term, until any concerns over cash collection are dispelled.

Anyone had a confirmed date from the company? I sent a message through the form on the company website earlier today. Awaiting reply.