Member Info for f15jcm

Their are a lot of negative reviews over the last few days. It looks like the redundancies have been in customer service. You don't want to be dealing with a chatbot for travel arrangements. Concerning

Brokers have been revising EPS upward https://uk.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/MORTGAGE-ADVICE-BUREAU-HO-18521341/consensus-revisions/

And even if the UK has fuel, it's no good flying to somewhere that hasn't

The middle east isn't what has done the damage so far, it's much more the deterioration of margin. Running out of jet fuel however, would be a major problem. Suspending the dividend might have been prudent.

At least they are outperforming the market. Reason to think they are managing the business well through a difficult period. Staff cuts will save £4m/y going forward. Perhaps we might benefit from some competitors going under?

Yes. Domestic stocks are currently subject to what I'm calling the 'Rayner discount'

ELIX joined the main market 1st July last year and put on 25% by the end of September. I'd be happy with a similar outcome here

Peter is the founder. Not sure he bought, I think the buyback may have increased his percentage

IHT money forced sellers prior to next week's move to the main market, I reckon. I've added quite a few. These are the situations where the small fry have the whip hand :)

Given the cash flows, I think there is a decent chance we'll see a maiden dividend declared in the results

Not that thin

Do you think AI will become, to varying extents, a standard part of legal practices even at the mid and higher end? If so, who would you expect to meet the costs of this at KEYS?

Why would KEYS fund/provide AI infrastructure for the lawyers? It's not part of the terms on which they currently operate, so why would they take on the cost of implementation and operation? Lawyers becoming substantially more efficient might drive down market prices, given there is a finite amount of legal work. I'm far from certain my concern is wholly justified, but I do think it's something that warrants caution. That aside, it looks like a tempting entry point...

I've always liked this business and it it starting to look like good value, I do however have fears around AI, specific to the KEYS business model. It seems reasonable that AI will allow legal professionals to do more in less time. This might reduce customer billables while at the same time making traditional lawyers more profitable due to the reduction in personnel costs. KEYS however, isn't a traditional model. They get a % of billables (effectively a commission). Reduced billables equally less money without the benefit of the cost savings, so potentially bad for KEYS.

This is an asset light business that should be agile. Do you think suspending guidance is extreme given that this situation should see a reallocation of demand, rather than a loss or even delay of demand? Are OTB potentially on the hook for any cancellations etc?

It's so frustrating with everything else going so well

Interesting. I made a successful investment in GAN a few years ago. They moved to a Nasdaq listing.

Jet2 issued a trading update 19th Feb last year, so hopefully we'll get a steer on the travel market soon. I do note that both stocks have short positions against them

I'm only going by broker consensus, which has obviously been arrived at in consultation with the GMR board. Look at Marketscreener for yourself

Redjester, GMR are paid a percentage of post tax operator revenue, so they will feel the pain. That's why there's no growth forecast for the next two years. Yeah, GMR isn't on a massive rating, but profits are no longer forecast to grow quickly, if at all

It's not just UK regulation, it is increased UK taxation, which was only introduced in the November budget, so hardly touched FY25, but will have a much greater effect in FY26. That's why brokers have slashed earnings estimates!