Member Info for f15jcm

Malcolm, future price of electricity seems to be the most obvious explanation. They are expecting to get ~£80MWh over the next 12 months but supply is partially hedged in the £50's thereafter. That said, I suspect there's a chance they might get a better price from the remaining unhedged production though, as spot prices are currently high.

https://www.nextenergysolarfund.com/investor-relations/institutional-investors/methodology/

From 2024 AR: 'The Company’s current UK 20 year average power price forecast represents a decrease of

13.4% compared to that used at the end of the previous financial year (and 50.1% below the

average price used at IPO).'

It even says the cost is fixed in the link you shared:

'Of the Company’s total debt, 71% remains at a fixed rate of interest (including the preference shares)'

Why would they take out swaps on the prefs? The cost is fixed. Assuming par is 100p, they pay a dividend of 4.75p/y irrespective of what value they trade at (presumably below par given you can get a better than a 4.75% yield on the likes of GACA).

I'm quite new here and I've just been crunching some numbers. The wholesale price environment is starting to look good?

https://x.com/F15JCM/status/1877071181263630639

Insolvencies lag the economic cycle so you should expect a lag in performance. Dividends here have a long record of growth which I find very attractive.

I was holding FRP and the H1 results (excluding cashflow) were really good. The minimal dividend increase really annoyed me, they don't seem to be sticking to the progressive dividend policy.

Indeed. It's a shame management at FRP are so reluctant to share the spoils. BEG is my largest position

Increasing the dividend by only 6% after those results was an insult to shareholders IMO. I've put the proceeds into BYG

It's not better in a low interest rate environment. It's higher rates that are causing the financial distress they benefit from

Jet2 are trading well. Expect this to be equally positive

Average term on remaining loans of less than 1y. I think we will get a few more divis and an exit close to NAV. Risk/reward looks good at this level. Clearly very little interest. Management have been very good at keeping shareholders informed

I bought some more this morning. 17% discount to NAV (the level the tender was at). Internal yield of 12% and

BEG sells off then drops an inline update, market shrugs its shoulders. FRP rallies, drops and inline update and puts on another 8%. Despite owning both, I just don't get this disparity in valuation and price action. Massive opportunity IMO. I sold half my FRP holding today for a 36% profit

It's worth looking at the relative performance of FRP v BEG over the last week. Nearly a 20% disparity. I own both but have a much larger position here

FRP is up 7% and we are down. So frustrating! Employer's NI increase should be very good for business. Increasing interest on amounts overdue to HMRC was also mentioned by CX. That will a further blow to already distressed companies. I'm very happy to sit and wait here. There is high volume today so presumably a large seller is suppressing the price

Some people are too impatient

Given Ric comments on the current share price, I think it's reasonable to assume they are at least trading inline. He'd look a bit of wally if he said that and then warned

*last year

20th November year

Interesting comment about employer's NI. Same is true for FRP though, and their stock is doing much better. Buyback/tender would be good at this level.

BEG has a very impressive record of dividend growth. Calling it a 'turd' is ridiculous.