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.Xi Jinping effectively vanished in July and the first half of August. Some China watchers speculated that his unexplained absence was a sign that he was losing his grip on power.

But he has since reappeared and been very visible again.

At the end of last month, he visited Tibet, then indulged in a high-profile, back-slapping meeting with Vladimir Putin and the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Tianjin. He capped off his busy fortnight with the 3 September military parade in Beijing and a second meeting with his star guest Putin, this time accompanied by Kim Jong-un.

So, a great triumph for the neo-Maoist leader and the new Axis of Evil?

Not so fast. The lessons to draw from these three events are a sight more nuanced. Here are five take-aways from Xi’s last few weeks.

1. Xi’s visit to Tibet was peculiar. It lasted just 24 hours. He inspected People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops in Lhasa on 21 August, the 60th anniversary of Tibet’s founding as an autonomous state. He went home the next day. On his last visit in 2021 he stayed for four days.

There is renewed speculation about Xi’s health. In Tibet he looked ponderous and unsteady on his feet

Even more curious was his absence from a visit to the biggest infrastructure project of his regime: the $165 billion Yarlung Tsangpo dam, now under construction, which will be the largest dam in the world. These kinds of projects are not only economically significant but provide plenty of opportunity for Xi’s political and military supporters to sing his praises. Normally a visit to a project of this importance would be a must for a General Secretary.

Instead, the visit to the dam was made BY Xi’s GREATEST POLITICAL ENEMY, Hu Chunhua. Hu is the deposed reformist ‘crown prince’ who was once seen as a potential next general secretary of the Chinese Communist party, until he was thrown off the politburo’s standing committee by Xi in 2022.

Yet three years after his humiliating demotion, Hu has made a surprise reappearance at the front line of Chinese politics. The PLA Daily even led with his name on its front page. After his time in the wilderness, is Hu back on the ‘crown prince’ track? Maybe.

2. The Shanghai meeting between Xi, Putin and Modi was not all it was cracked up to be. Western media seemed taken with the idea that India was now in alliance with China and Russia. Nothing could be further from the truth. Modi is an alpha-male ultranationalist (not unlike Donald Trump) and he is fixed on the idea that India is the emerging dominant world power. He could well be correct. Based on current projections, India, which will have double China’s population by the end of the century, will become a bigger economy than either China or the US.

Continued....

A couple of points to factor in (I follow ZIOC)

(1) Little Den has just tweeted re his Oman visit

..."with Mr. Mulham Al Jarf, Vice President of the Oman Investment Authority, the sovereign wealth fund of the Sultanate of Oman, responsible for the management and development of the country's strategic assets, both on a national and international level.

Our discussions focused primarily on the Kore Potash project, deployed about thirty kilometers from Pointe-Noire. This structuring project holds strategic importance for the Congo, as it aims to develop the potash sector, while contributing to the diversification of our economy and the strengthening of our food sovereignty through the production of fertilizers.

I commended the commitment of the Oman Investment Authority in this partnership and reaffirmed the determination of the Congolese government to provide a favorable framework to ensure its success..."

(2) I wonder whether Kore would qualify retroactively for any of the largesse/special tax status proposed under China's latest Most Favoured Nation upgrade for C-B?

GLA and ATB

Per tweet

.."meeting with Mr. Mulham Al Jarf, Vice President of the Oman Investment Authority, the sovereign wealth fund of the Sultanate of Oman, responsible for the management and development of the country's strategic assets, both on a national and international level.

Our discussions focused primarily on the Kore Potash project, deployed about thirty kilometers from Pointe-Noire. This structuring project holds strategic importance for the Congo, as it aims to develop the potash sector, while contributing to the diversification of our economy and the strengthening of our food sovereignty through the production of fertilizers.

I commended the commitment of the Oman Investment Authority in this partnership and reaffirmed the determination of the Congolese government to provide a favorable framework to ensure its success...."

On past form, he was also lobbying for Congo's candidate at UNESCO.

I wonder whether Kore would qualify retroactively for any of the largesse/special tax status proposed under C-B's latest MFN upgrade?

GLA

.."Would you like me to lay out a peer table comparing Zanaga directly against Simandou, Amapá, Kami, Strategic Resources, and Ferrexpo — so the scarcity and differentiation is absolutely clear in black and white?"

Having teased the offer, 'Yes, please'.

TIA

Continued...

The 'potential embarrassment factor' - for Big Den and China - is captured here:

https://www.brazzavillepost.com/article/543849592-avima-exposes-plans-of-company-linked-to-president-to-illegally-market-and-sell-the-avima-license

..."Both the Congolese Government and Sangha Mining have failed to recognize that iron ore is simply not a black-market commodity. At today’s prices, a 150,000 MT shipment of iron ore will cost US$37.5 million.

Customers will not invest this level of capital without undertaking substantial due diligence – this would include due diligence on the political and economic stability of the host country, the background and ability of the owners and operators, and the acquisition process of the licenses.

These actions will be catastrophic for the country’s future. Not only will this bring a halt to international investment and support from institutions like global development banks, but it will also leave a world class deposit like Avima stranded – and - without a market to legitimately sell into - a large-scale, multi-billion dollar project will not proceed."

Meanwhile, ZIOC's interim report is (due by month-end) and should include an update re cash burn and cash position....and what it's doing about all the 'non-deliveries' on its promised timeline....

Let's see how this all pans out....popcorn at the ready.

GLA

Hi 99icecream,

Thanks for this additional 'flavour', which helps me understand why the outcomes might differ.

This article - https://cemac-eco.finance/mbalam-nabeba-iron-project-cameroon-boycotts-case-against-sundace-resources-in-paris/- suggests that the then Cameroon Minister of Mines favoured settlement, but the President (Biya) over-ruled.

The Minister of Mines died mysteriously a few weeks after Sundance began proceedings, see

https://investorinsight.com.au/sundance-provides-update-on-court-proceedings/

It's hard to work out how much progress the 'new investors' have actually made in the intervening 4+ years, AFAICS first ore (strip-mining) is due to be trucked to Kribi by the end of 2025.

Sundance's claim agst Cameroon is for US$ 5.5 Billion, per https://viewkamer.crisbyventures.org/news/5-5-billion-mining-dispute-between-australias-sundance-and-cameroon-nears-verdict/

and

Its claim against Congo-B is for US$ 8.8 Billion, per https://disputescentre.com.au/sundance-resources-arbitration/

Finally, this article - re a third disputed claim in the same area (Avima, USD 27 Billion - a 'try-on'- different plaintiff, same defendant) suggests that Big Den's family has an interest in the outcome (quelle surprise...not), which may be a factor that comes into play as the matter draws to a close

https://www.republicofcongotimes.com/article/547333830-avima-issues-warning-to-investors-considering-partnering-with-sangha-mining

.." Pierre Oba, the Minister of Mines of the Republic of Congo ("Congo"), has sent a comfort letter (the "Comfort Letter") to a company linked to the Congolese President's family, Sangha Mining ("Sangha"), regarding the alleged regularity of the transfer to Sangha of the mining licenses expropriated from international companies including Avima Fer ("Avima"). According to the press, Sangha intends to use the Comfort Letter to promote the Avima iron ore project to investors, including a Chinese consortium...."

Avima is (or, at least was) advised by international law firm Clifford Chance LLP (Simon

Greenberg, Alexis Foucard, Marie-Isabelle Delleur, and Alix de Zitter, all Paris-based), per https://jusmundi.com/en/document/other/en-avima-iron-ore-limited-v-republic-of-congo-notice-of-intent-press-release-thursday-11th-march-2021

The 'potential embarrassment factor' - for Big Den and China - is captured here.......

Continued

Https://www.ariseiip.com/arise-iip-welcomes-vision-invest-as-a-new-shareholder/

A USD 700 million capital raise from Vision Invest, a leading Saudi Arabian infrastructure investor and developer.....

https://visioninvest.com/en/category/overview

.." The capital will support ARISE IIP’s continued expansion across the continent and the development of green, inclusive, and sustainable industrial ecosystems.

The institutional shareholder base of ARISE IIP comprises the founding shareholders Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) and Equitane, along with the Fund for Export Development in Africa (FEDA), the development impact platform of Afreximbank, and, with this transaction, Vision Invest the newest shareholder.

Founded in 2010 with operations in Gabon, ARISE IIP has expanded to more than 14 countries across Africa, deploying nearly USD 2 billion in infrastructure and enabling over 50,000 jobs. The platform focuses on creating local value through the transformation of raw materials and import substitution.

“ARISE has always believed in Africa’s promise and the talent driving its growth. The partnership with Vision Invest and the continued support of our institutional shareholders will help us build resilient, self-sustaining industrial ecosystems that deliver long-term value,” said Gagan Gupta, Founder and CEO of ARISE IIP, highlighting the strategic significance of the new investment..."

Very timely. I'd say.

GLA

Https://www.ariseiip.com/arise-iip-welcomes-vision-invest-as-a-new-shareholder/

A USD 700 million capital raise from Vision Invest, a leading Saudi Arabian infrastructure investor and developer.....

https://visioninvest.com/en/category/overview

.." The capital will support ARISE IIP’s continued expansion across the continent and the development of green, inclusive, and sustainable industrial ecosystems.

The institutional shareholder base of ARISE IIP comprises the founding shareholders Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) and Equitane, along with the Fund for Export Development in Africa (FEDA), the development impact platform of Afreximbank, and, with this transaction, Vision Invest the newest shareholder.

Founded in 2010 with operations in Gabon, ARISE IIP has expanded to more than 14 countries across Africa, deploying nearly USD 2 billion in infrastructure and enabling over 50,000 jobs. The platform focuses on creating local value through the transformation of raw materials and import substitution.

“ARISE has always believed in Africa’s promise and the talent driving its growth. The partnership with Vision Invest and the continued support of our institutional shareholders will help us build resilient, self-sustaining industrial ecosystems that deliver long-term value,” said Gagan Gupta, Founder and CEO of ARISE IIP, highlighting the strategic significance of the new investment..."

Very timely. I'd say.

GLA

This is the 'Fonds d'investissement minier' that the Min of Mines set up

https://ecomatin.net/secteur-minier-le-congo-en-quete-de-partenaires-pour-le-lancement-dun-fonds-dinvestissement-minier

see also

Africa Intelligence

https://www.africaintelligence.fr › afrique-centrale › ...

Congo Brazzaville peaufine un fonds d'investissement minier

Nov 14, 2024 · Odilon Obami, conseiller administratif et juridique du ministre des mines, Pierre Oba, a discrètement fait enregistrer à Brazzaville une nouvelle société, le Fonds …

which refers to Ulsan (Mayoko Moussondji) and to Luyuan (Koilou area potash).....

HTH

Hi 99icecream,

You're welcome.

Could you pls expand on this bit : "It is possible (IMHO) that Sundance could win vs. Congo (1) and not against Cameroon (2), which makes it particularly interesting.(3)"

(1) I also think it likely that Sundance will win (C-B made a settlement approach in 2024, which suggests it thought so too?);

(2) I'm not clear why it might - even then - lose the Cameroon case.

From the Equatorial case, you'll see the observation that 'no shows' are regarded poorly by the courts ("But Congo's lawyers apparently didn't get paid, so they just... didn't show up. The Republic of Congo essentially no-showed their own trial.

Now, most arbitration tribunals would have just issued a default judgment right there....." etc).

Sundance's last report re Cameroon said this

.."Following the completion of all procedural requirements by Sundance the hearing for the arbitration between

Sundance, Sundance’s subsidiary CamIron SA and Cameroon (“the Cameroon Parties”) occurred before a tribunal

constituted under the rules of the International Court of Arbitration of the International Chamber of Commerce

(“ICC”) on 28 January 2025 in Paris.

 Cameroon had DECIDED to not pay its lawyers and independent experts therefore there were no Cameroon

representatives at the hearing despite Cameroon and its legal team being fully informed of the proceedings and given

every opportunity to attend.

 The Company is now waiting on a decision from the ICC tribunal which is not expected till June 2025 at the earliest...."

To add to its no show 'contempt of court', it appears from the media that Cameroon is trying to move ahead on the seized asset : See https://www.africaintelligence.com/central-africa/2025/06/17/chinese-operator-eyes-september-for-first-iron-ore-shipment-from-mbalam-nabeba,110466311-art

and

https://energycapitalpower.com/congos-mbalam-nabeba-mine-to-start-production-in-december-2025/

(3) So I'm not clear what you think is 'particularly interesting'.

I think two verdicts against a Chinese mining co (Sangha) would be better, but even one (C-B's) would be good, because C-B will have to respond : I believe that recent establishment of the state 'holding co' for its mineral investments shows C-B has been trying to get its act together, it's now - under the MFN spotlight - under increased pressure to do so.

And by that, I don't just mean that 'C-B's seen the light'. The Chinese parastatals value appearances and (outward at least) compliance with the rules on the international stage. Esp in Africa, where it's keen to show itself as an honest partner...doing things 'by the book'.

It's something that I think strengthens Sundance's hand...and from which ZIOC would by extension benefit, in any deal discussions.

What do you think?

TIA and ATB

By happy coincidence, here's a write-up on the situation over at Equatorial Resources (part-overlapping Sundance concessions at Mbalam Badondo , and the one passed to Ulsan Mining - Mayoko Moussondji)

https://triplesinvesting.substack.com/p/equatorial-resources-eqxasx-a-two

The write-up is pretty comprehensive and seems fairly accurate AFAIAA, some of the investment numbers are a bit improbable. The absence of litigation funder means Equatorial gets to keep practically all of anything collected.

It might be worth a punt, certainly seems more attractive than Tsodilo (everything is relative, NAI).

Another C-B issue that seems to be coming to a head...and that I think will have to be addressed /taken into account by any State actor considering in-country investment.

DYOR, GLA

Https://www.sundanceresources.com.au/irm/pdf/4e5eec76-d293-4cc4-a00f-563ad08d41e0/UPDATE-ON-CAMEROON-AND-CONGO-PROCEEDINGS.pdf?Platform=ListPage

.."The hearings before separate tribunals constituted by the International Court of Arbitration of the International Chamber of Commerce (“ICC”) and the post-hearing submissions between Sundance, Cameroon and Congo have been COMPLETED.

Upon completion of the briefings, the ICC tribunals did not commit to a time when its decisions on

the two separate cases brought by Sundance – against Cameroon and against Congo – are expected.

Sundance has since been advised by the ICC that the DECISIONS (in the form of arbitral awards) are

not expected before 28 November 2025 for the Congo case and 31 December 2025 for the

Cameroon case.

The Company will keep shareholders updated including ONCE THE ICC HANDS DOWN THE TRIBUNAL'S SEPARATE AWARDS.

Sounds like things are coming to a head.

GLA

Https://www.usgs.gov/news/science-snippet/department-interior-releases-draft-2025-list-critical-minerals

..."POTASH, silicon, copper, SILVER, rhenium and LEAD were recommended for inclusion to the list and arsenic and tellurium were recommended for removal....

.."On August 26, 2025, the draft List of Critical Minerals will be posted in the Federal Register for public comment for the next 30 days. Public comment is specifically welcomed on inclusion of METALLURGICAL COAL and uranium..... whether OTHER MINERALS should be added...."

Only a matter of time, it would seem.

GLA

China’s latest oil field investment

$23 billion.

The value of an oil deal struck between Congo Brazzaville and Chinese company Wing Wah to boost oil production in the African country. Under the agreement, Wing Wah will develop three oil fields to drill 200,000 barrels per day in Congo Brazzaville by 2030.

The company already operates in the country, extracting about 45,000 barrels per day from the Banga Kayo onshore field. [About 15 Km down the coast from Pointe Noire.. The headline $23 billion is total revenue anticipated over the life of the concession est 1. 3 billion barrels by 2050. The project includes capturing currently flared gas]

Italy’s Eni and France’s TotalEnergies are also exploring oil production opportunities in Congo Brazzaville, as the government tries to harness its hydrocarbon reserves to solve economic challenges..."

Sidenote: Airtel Congo and Wing Wah have launched Congo-Brazzaville’s first private network at the Banga Kayo oil field, aiming to boost oilfield connectivity, network security, and digital transformation in Central Africa’s energy sector. This five-year agreement supports real-time monitoring, automation, and future 5G integration, setting a new precedent for telecom and oil industry partnerships in the region.

https://tecknexus.com/5gusecase/airtel-congo-wing-wah-launch-first-private-oilfield-network-in-congo-brazzaville/

.."Don't get the relevance of your comment about reincorporated in 2002 to Yukon - care to explain?"

See https://tsodiloresources.com/s/Corporate_History.asp.html

Its genesis was in 1995, so a 30 year existence to get where it is today.

As to the timing of any re-cycle , my hunch is that we're likely be in funds here before Tsodilo is 'investable'..which - granted - may not be saying much, but gives an opinion re relative merit.

Hi BOTS_PROJECTS,

For perhaps both Simandou and Zanaga, the reality is that 'if China be for us, who shall be against us?

;->

(1) Your digression (again) to Tsodilo - on revisiting- suggests that its ore quality is interesting (67.2%).

(2) However, pelletisation itself is energy intensive and Botswana's resources pretty dirty AIUI, coal-fired (existing) and natural gas (proposed) coal bed methane -based. So not that green.

Never mind.

Tsodilo's solution appears to be a small NUCLEAR reactor (fission or fusion, they mention both - 2 September 2025 presentation p 31).

Pretty cutting edge, since I don't think 'fusion' even works at commercial scale yet.....and Botswana isn't perhaps the obvious place to start.

(3) Plus of course there's the unaddressed earlier observation that Tsodilo is at a much less advanced stage of development than Zanaga : it's not even clear whether it's completed a Preliminary Feasibility Study (never mind anything remotely Bankable) or what the status of its other licences and approvals is.

And this for an entity that reincorporated as Tsodilo (from Ontario to YUKON) as far back as 2002....

(4) If you must promote Tsodilo, it's probably safer to do so highlighting it as a potential candidate for investment AFTER folk have 'cashed out' on ZIOC .....

ATB

Meanwhile, without a hint of irony, depeches juxtaposes on the same page 2 articles:

(1) The EITI (Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative) holds meetings to update members on the new requirements for its 2025 evaluation. Participants came from the mining, hydrocarbon and forestry sectors.

" These two workshops are part of the national authorities' commitment to strengthening transparency, accountability and good governance in the management of the country's natural resources."

This appears below another article

(2) CONKOUATI-DOULI NATIONAL PARK

CAD warns of threats posed by oil licences

On 4 September, the Executive Director of the Centre d'action pour le développement (CAD), Trésor Nzila, held a press conference in Brazzaville during which he presented a report revealing the threats to the protected area of Conkouati-Douli National Park due to oil exploration licences being granted.

..two oil blocks overlap more than half of the land area and nearly 90% of the wetlands, endangering threatened species and

7,000 inhabitants of the region. [the report] reveals the extent of the environmental impacts that could result from the ‘Conkouati’ oil licence awarded to Overseas United Limited [more formally China Oil Natural Gas Overseas Holding United], in February 2024 and the ‘Niambi’ licence awarded in April 2025 to the operator Oriental Energy'

More detail here https://www.rainforestfoundationuk.org/civil-society-calls-for-urgent-ban-on-oil-exploration-in-congos-conkouati-douli-national-park/

and here

https://fr.mongabay.com/2025/09/congo-le-parc-national-de-conkouati-douli-demeure-sous-la-menace-dune-exploitation-petroliere-controversee/

More material for ZIOC and its lawyers' ESG negotiations dossier (s)......

GLA

Meanwhile, without a hint of irony, depeches juxtaposes on the same page 2 articles:

(1) The EITI (Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative) holds meetings to update members on the new requirements for its 2025 evaluation. Participants came from the mining, hydrocarbon and forestry sectors.

" These two workshops are part of the national authorities' commitment to strengthening transparency, accountability and good governance in the management of the country's natural resources."

This appears below another article

(2) CONKOUATI-DOULI NATIONAL PARK

CAD warns of threats posed by oil licences

On 4 September, the Executive Director of the Centre d'action pour le développement (CAD), Trésor Nzila, held a press conference in Brazzaville during which he presented a report revealing the threats to the protected area of Conkouati-Douli National Park due to oil exploration licences being granted.

..two oil blocks overlap more than half of the land area and nearly 90% of the wetlands, endangering threatened species and

7,000 inhabitants of the region. [the report] reveals the extent of the environmental impacts that could result from the ‘Conkouati’ oil licence awarded to Overseas United Limited [more formally China Oil Natural Gas Overseas Holding United], in February 2024 and the ‘Niambi’ licence awarded in April 2025 to the operator Oriental Energy'

More detail here https://www.rainforestfoundationuk.org/civil-society-calls-for-urgent-ban-on-oil-exploration-in-congos-conkouati-douli-national-park/

and here

https://fr.mongabay.com/2025/09/congo-le-parc-national-de-conkouati-douli-demeure-sous-la-menace-dune-exploitation-petroliere-controversee/

More material for ZIOC and its lawyers' ESG negotiations dossier (s)......

GLA

Zanaga gets a (brief) mention.

This from Congo Times

https://congotimes.com/2025/09/07/rural-congo-powers-up-ambitious-off-grid-plan/

.."Designed jointly with the United Nations Development Programme, PEZOR carries an indicative price tag of nearly two hundred and eleven billion CFA francs. [USD 375 million].Technical studies already completed identify nineteen hydro sites whose capacities range from thirty-one kilowatts to five megawatts.

In parallel, two hundred and fifty-seven photovoltaic mini-plants will be erected, complemented by almost two thousand lamp posts powered by stand-alone solar modules. Five ageing dams will be overhauled, while nineteen micro-hydro stations will reinforce mini-grids in equally many districts..."

So far, so what?

But depeches elaborates :

.."Thus, the government and the UNDP have decided to launch A PILOT PROJECT involving a mini-grid around the micro-hydroelectric power stations of Lébama (28 MW), Itsibou (1,500 KW) and Foula (800 KW). This mini-grid aims to supply

electricity in 2030 to MPD (ZANAGA IRON ORE): 10 MW; Mayoko mines (10 MW); Mossendjo 2 MW; Komono 2 MW; Yaya 2 MW

; Moutamba 2 MW; Lefoutou 2 MW.

"The network will provide reliable and continuous access to electricity for 40,304 people and THE TWO MINING SITES for the start of their work. The cost of this pilot project is estimated at 87.13 billion CFA francs [USD 149 million], including 65.6 billion CFA francs [USD 112 million] for the construction of the power stations; 14.9 billion CFA francs [USD 26 million] for the high-voltage power lines supplying the localities; 5.8 billion CFA francs for the distribution network in the localities; and 779 million CFA francs for studies,"

So, the Minister of Energy and Hydraulics at least now has a file on Zanaga he can show any would-be financier.....or share with any Strategic.

GLA

Zanaga gets a (brief) mention.

This from Congo Times

https://congotimes.com/2025/09/07/rural-congo-powers-up-ambitious-off-grid-plan/

.."Designed jointly with the United Nations Development Programme, PEZOR carries an indicative price tag of nearly two hundred and eleven billion CFA francs. [USD 375 million].Technical studies already completed identify nineteen hydro sites whose capacities range from thirty-one kilowatts to five megawatts.

In parallel, two hundred and fifty-seven photovoltaic mini-plants will be erected, complemented by almost two thousand lamp posts powered by stand-alone solar modules. Five ageing dams will be overhauled, while nineteen micro-hydro stations will reinforce mini-grids in equally many districts..."

So far, so what?

But depeches elaborates :

.."Thus, the government and the UNDP have decided to launch A PILOT PROJECT involving a mini-grid around the micro-hydroelectric power stations of Lébama (28 MW), Itsibou (1,500 KW) and Foula (800 KW). This mini-grid aims to supply

electricity in 2030 to MPD (ZANAGA IRON ORE): 10 MW; Mayoko mines (10 MW); Mossendjo 2 MW; Komono 2 MW; Yaya 2 MW

; Moutamba 2 MW; Lefoutou 2 MW.

"The network will provide reliable and continuous access to electricity for 40,304 people and THE TWO MINING SITES for the start of their work. The cost of this pilot project is estimated at 87.13 billion CFA francs [USD 149 million], including 65.6 billion CFA francs [USD 112 million] for the construction of the power stations; 14.9 billion CFA francs [USD 26 million] for the high-voltage power lines supplying the localities; 5.8 billion CFA francs for the distribution network in the localities; and 779 million CFA francs for studies,"

So, the Minister of Energy and Hydraulics at least now has a file on Zanaga he can show any would-be financier.....or share with any Strategic.

GLA