Member Info for extrader

Some snippets, hat-tips to La Valmy and Countryman5

(1) The new $ 200 M contract is likely Kenya;

(2) hTTps://www.arabnews.com/node/2615433/saudi-arabia

"Saudi interior minister visits Sabah Al-Ahmad Coast Guard Base in Kuwait... to help enhance maritime security cooperation.

...the director general of the Kuwait Coast Guard briefed the Saudi delegation on Monday about the maritime force’s mission and responsibilities, including operations to secure ports and territorial waters.

Prince Abdulaziz looked at vessels and visited facilities, including operation rooms and the mobile command and monitor center... The visit highlights the countries’ commitment to strengthening maritime security, enhancing border protection, and SHARING EXPERTISE IN MODERN TECHNOLOGIES to improve coordination.."

KSA's interest is likely already factored into SRT's VSP

..."There is one definitely KSA related, the £100 million CG follow-on, which is RADARs. The other one which I think is also KSA is the £300 million 'new surveillance system for specific strategic area within a country'. It is not clear whether this is a new sovereign or an existing one. I think the latter and there are none other than KSA who might need that sort of size project for a PART of their coast" .

That's believed to be NEOM and the surrounding 'playground area', up to the Gulf of Aqaba, with lots of 'sensitive' assets to protect.

https://almarwan.com/news/4421/neom-announces-magna-project

(3) Arab World. Sept 18th. Yemen’s coastguard is working closely with Saudi Arabia and Britain to strengthen maritime Security

More detail re Yemen..from the horse's mouthpiece

hTTps://www.spa.gov.sa/en/N2398929

.."Riyadh, September 16, 2025, SPA -- Riyadh hosted a high-level international conference under the auspices of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom, with the participation of over 35 countries, during which the international Yemen Maritime Security Partnership was launched to enhance security in critical maritime waterways today.

The conference witnessed pledges of millions of dollars in the first phase of international funding, dedicated to rebuilding the civil capacities of the Yemeni Coast Guard, including training, equipment, and institutional support as part of a comprehensive ten-year strategy.

The partnership focuses on combating smuggling, piracy, and human trafficking in Yemen's vital waterways, thereby enhancing regional stability and safeguarding international trade routes."

All good MDA stuff...and SRT(assuming UK govt support)will hopefully get to showcase its wares to another 35 countries...

GLA and ATB

From depeches, Ministerial decree re LuYuan potash and related port infrastructure:

FYI

.."Towards the establishment of a potash mining plant

With regard to the mining of potash salts at a place called ‘Hollmoni’, in the district of Loango, Kouilou department, the government has just adopted a draft decree granting express authorisation to occupy a state land reserve consisting of a

public maritime domain right by the company Luyuan des mines Congo.

A requirement linked to the draft decree relating to land allocation is justified by the need to establish modern port infrastructure for the exploitation of potash granules, as presented by the Minister of State, Minister of Land Affairs and Public Domain , responsible for relations with Parliament, Pierre Mabiala.

This project, with a budget of over two hundred million US dollars, has great employment potential, both in the construction

and operational phases, including approximately 1,500 direct jobs during the construction phase; more than 800 permanent jobs during the industrial operation phase ; and thousands more indirect jobs generated in support services, logistics, trade and transport. Ultimately, the purpose of the adopted project is to grant a private legal entity the right to occupy

a public domain area of five hundred and seventy-seven hectares, eighty-four ares and twenty-six centiares, for a period of twenty years."

GLA and ATB

FT article today about the complex financing and trade-offs involved in Chevron and Total off-loading assets in C-B to Trident Energy, a private-equity backed (Warburg Pincus/Quantum Energy) mid -tier oil explo company.

'How a patchwork of finance eased sale of Congo oil assets'

https://www.ft.com/content/74df41d9-400e-4d6e-b212-0df8900f1969

After discussing the various parties' specific requirements, article concludes with

.."

https://www.ft.com/content/74df41d9-400e-4d6e-b212-0df8900f1969

..."the most innovative work on behalf of Trident was arranging the financial framework so that the deal could proceed in a tight market for oil and gas funding. The deal closed for an undisclosed amount, but was nearly $2bn in enterprise value including debt, according to people familiar with the matter.

“The debt financing market for oil and gas transactions ebbs and flows,” Spalding says, adding that the deal for Trident required an “innovative tapestry of funding sources”.

This involved bank debt, trader OFFTAKE FINANCING from commodities trading major Trafigura and Total’s own commodities trading arm, according to people with knowledge of the deal. This is indicative of the “patchwork” financing now required in oil and gas transactions as the energy majors sell down assets to mid-tier companies.

In the end, Trident got across the line and the agreement was officially completed in January 2025 after the deals were signed the previous April..."

My speculation is that C-B expected to come into funds (hence the approach re settlement to Sundance in Jun 2024- which C-B then failed to consummate)...and that GLEN 'gate-crashed' and 'encouraged' C-B to allocate Trafigura sourced monies to settle its (GLEN's) $350m overdues instead.

In knocking GLEN out of the field, Trafigura also gets more influence in any future offtake deals with Congo-B.

All IMO ...but would be a plausible explanation for things that otherwise remain a puzzle.

GLA

Https://www.mining.com/web/chinese-state-iron-ore-trader-to-halt-some-bhp-orders-in-dispute/

.."China Mineral Resources Group Co., created by Beijing to boost pricing power in the global iron ore trade, urged mills to suspend purchases of BHP’s Jimblebar blend fines from next week, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing private deliberations....

....the recommendation has effectively become binding because of CMRG’s political clout and its direct reporting lines to top government officials, the people said.

The move underscores China’s push to gain greater bargaining power with the world’s top iron ore suppliers, arguing that its vast steel industry should secure better terms. Established three years ago, CMRG has been tasked with shifting leverage from major producers such as BHP, Rio Tinto Group and Vale SA toward the world’s largest iron ore buyer..."

Nothing helps negotiations leverage like having alternative suppliers.....

GLA and ATB

Https://www.mining.com/web/chinese-state-iron-ore-trader-to-halt-some-bhp-orders-in-dispute/

.."China Mineral Resources Group Co., created by Beijing to boost pricing power in the global iron ore trade, urged mills to suspend purchases of BHP’s Jimblebar blend fines from next week, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing private deliberations....

....the recommendation has effectively become binding because of CMRG’s political clout and its direct reporting lines to top government officials, the people said.

The move underscores China’s push to gain greater bargaining power with the world’s top iron ore suppliers, arguing that its vast steel industry should secure better terms. Established three years ago, CMRG has been tasked with shifting leverage from major producers such as BHP, Rio Tinto Group and Vale SA toward the world’s largest iron ore buyer..."

Nothing helps negotiations leverage like having alternative suppliers.

GLA and ATB

Https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/guinea-to-vote-on-constitution-that-would-let-coup-leader-run-for-office

Quelle surprise...not!

Latest news :

https://www.africaintelligence.com/central-africa/2025/09/19/denis-sassou-nguesso-makes-his-big-return-to-un-general-assembly,110524005-bre

Denis Sassou-Nguesso makes his big return to UN General Assembly

The Congolese head of state is expected in New York, where he will attend the 80th United Nations General Assembly, a forum he has avoided in recent years. [...]

Published on 19/09/2025 at 04:40 GMT

Most likely to lobby for Congo's candidate - Firmin Édouard Matoko - for the position of Director-General of UNESCO, which if successful would help put C-B 'on the map'.

Big Den has had a travel schedule recently that belies his nearly 83 years:

- Sept 2 to 5 in Beijing, meets Putin and Xi, amongst others, then on to Shanghai;

- Sept 7 returns to Brazzaville;

- Sept 9 (evening) flies to Bangui, CAR;

- Sept 10 CEMAC conference;

- Sept 11 appointed new head of this sub-regional financial coordination body;

- Sept 17 presides over C-B Council of Ministers meeting;

- Sept 18 goes to funeral of yet another of his (outlived) contemporaries;

- Sept 18 (pm) flies up to his Oyo fiefdom, as President of the African Union's High-Level Committee for Libya, receives Ms. Hanna Tetteh, Special Representative of the United Nations Secretary-General for Libya...

- Sept 19, flies out to NY for the UN General Assembly.

I wonder who he'll be seeing there...and whether he'll 'crash' at his daughter's NY pad ?

https://www.theafricangazette.com/p/us-doj-congo-new-york-apartment

'It's complicated'.

GLA and ATB

;->

Https://congoinvestor.com/ad-ports-bold-african-port-gambit-reshapes-trade/

.."In Central Africa, the thirty-year concession signed in 2023 with Congo-Brazzaville positions Pointe-Noire as AD Ports’ flagship. The USD 500 million plan upgrades the New East Mole multipurpose terminal and aligns with President Denis Sassou Nguesso’s objective to diversify beyond oil by leveraging the Atlantic seaboard.

CMA CGM joined the venture, bringing liner volumes and technological know-how that should lift annual capacity to 1.5 million TEUs. Congolese officials forecast 20 000 direct and indirect jobs once expansion peaks and EXPECT THE PORT TO FEED THE MINERAL EXPORTS FROM NEIGHBOURING GABON AND THE CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC.

C-B clearly doesn't think that Gabon's pipe-dream new port at Mayombo (cf Beling mine rerouting) will be happening any time soon.

Hi Catbert,

Au contraire.

I think these seemingly random, pointless and ineffective tweets are in fact part of a cunning communication system for insiders: everyone 'inside' (potential Strategics, 'friends' and friends of friends) has been given a 'one time pad code ' with a timeline on it (that schedule we saw back in the spring + other details of interest) ...and a random tweet alongside.

So, instead of updating the market in the normal way - and letting the 'great unwashed' in on what's going on - ZIOC can now communicate openly (and simultaneously) the true state of affairs with those who matter, without any risk of security breaches ....and a 'level playing field' for the circling bidders, but not for anyone else.

'If you know, you know'...and you read it here first.

This is the obvious explanation for (a) on the one hand the absence of RNS updates and (b) on the other the dire quality of the tweets : the medium is the message.

Case closed!

;->

HTH and ATB

Https://www.mining-journal.com/project-finance/news-analysis/4520170/barrick-reko-diq-financed

.."Barrick Mining has obtained the financing commitments for the US$6.5 billion Reko Diq copper-gold development in Pakistan from international funding agencies, chief executive Mark Bristow told Mining Journal at the 2025 Mining Forum Americas in Colorado Springs. A group of 11 "sovereign-style" lenders will provide $3.5 billion from G7 and Western economies, including the World Bank, International Finance Corporation and the Asian Development Bank which will contribute $1 billion..."

and

https://asia.nikkei.com/business/materials/pakistan-copper-gold-mine-reko-diq-wins-6bn-in-pledges-after-saudi-pullout

ISLAMABAD -- The Reko Diq copper and gold mine project -- one of the largest copper mines if commissioned as planned -- in Pakistan has now secured $6 billion in loan pledges, after a Saudi Arabian investor pulled out, pushing Barrick Mining, the Canadian mine developer, to seek financing from U.S. and other international lenders...."

This was going to be Ma'aden's second 'big deal' (copper/ gold), worth USD6 Bn after its Vale Base Metals Division buy-in (nickel/copper/cobalt) for USD 2.6 Bn.

(1) Did it get cold feet on P*kistan, specifically?

(2) Has PIF scaled back its/Ma'aden's ambitions, as Saudi's budget gets tighter?

and, depending on answers to the above

(3) What is Ma'aden 's plan - if any - for its other, unaddressed objective, iron ore? See its website

https://www.manaraminerals.com/Investments.html

Commodities

.."We are currently focused on copper, lithium, nickel and IRON ORE...."

and this (Sept 2024) comment

https://miningbeacon.com/industry/no-flagging-for-maaden-and-its-ceo

.."Wilt said in London the ex-Saudi minerals investment vehicle formed last year by Ma’aden and the Kingdom’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) was not interested in “splashing money around the world” but had its eye on “several good projects” and remained focused on growing its global exposure to IRON ORE, lithium, copper and nickel..."

and , more specifically re its metals trading ambitions, comment from the FMF in Riyadh:

https://www.greatmining.com/mining-news/manara-minerals-fund-in-saudi-arabia-is-set-to-establish-a-metals-trading-division/

.."the initial phase involves securing investments, but trading activities are anticipated to manage the off-take of minerals.

...Manara aims to avoid direct competition with major players like Glencore or Trafigura, focusing on managing its own book. The fund’s primary focus is on sourcing IRON ORE, lithium, copper, and nickel to contribute to Saudi Arabia’s goal of becoming a metals processing hub...."

So, along with a freshly cashed up ARISE, is another potential 'Strategic' suddenly a bit more 'liquid' than it expected to be...and needing something to show that it's still 'a player'?

Hmmm.

Hi 99icecream,

AFAIAA, there have been NO TR-1's issued, we have to rely on RNS's, or Co website which say nothing about ultimate ownership.

From my 17 Aug :

.."Apart from 'unknown unknowns' there are quite a few 'known unknowns' AFAICS :

(1) The private placement involved subscriptions 'amongst new AND EXISTING investors' for 416.9m shares, out of which we're told (by ZIOC website, not Tr-1) that Greymont has 152.1m, Regatta 58.1m and Gagan Gupta 83.3m, total 293.5m , so there's a further 123.4 m shares held either by new* investors, EXISTING** investors or a mix that are (presumably) below the declarable 3% = 25 million level.

416, 860,475 is 50.08% of the 832,379,996 shares in issue reported on the ZIOC website.

(2) 'Other investors' include (i) a Saudi investment fund founder*, downstream processing specialist; and (ii) AT** and MK **, the latter about 7.5m shares AIUI, new NED Mitchell* with abt 2.5m).

Where is Sir Mick Davis ? Is he investor* or just adviser- it's hard to tell!

(3) ZIOC has told us that 'the percentage of ordinary shares that were not in public hands was 49.38%', further defined as 'ownership of significant shareholders, and ordinary shares and share options in which non-executive directors of the Company are interested.'

Subtracting from 49.38% the 4 x declared holdings (Elphick's holding showed unch) that sum to 373.4m or 44.9% of 832m) suggests that (49.38- 44.9 =) 4.5% or abt 37m shares are likely represented by management shares/share options.

I can only identify the Country Manager's 3m options (RNS 2 Oct 2023) , exercisable @ 7.5p.

Two other, potentially material 'known unknowns' (both**) are (i) the former Garbut holdings and (ii) where the Shard subscriptions were placed.

(4) The Garbut holdings (Michael Howarth and co) were initially larger in the early days (115.6m/ 41.25%) than Guava's / Elphicks (87m/31.3%). Are ex-Garbut still material holders?

Garbut's 115.6m shares were distributed in 2017 to various trusts above the then disclosable level (total 46.7m), leaving nearly 70m under the then disclosable 3% level, and all of them undisclosable now.

In 2018 Guava hived off 'for tax planning purposes' abt 8.5 m shares, tellingly worth then 2.99% of the co, ie non-disclosable.

(5) The Shard subscriptions : these were always carefully 'managed' by Elphick, I think they were a kind of private, rolling placement mechanism amongst 'safe hands'. Mystery shoppers applying never seemed to make the cut.

The first subscription totalled 21m shares, the second 36m, I'm not sure how many unsubscribed...and indeed whether the facility is still available (I've asked both).

Of other once-identifiable investors, I believe Julian Higgins (12m) has passed, Everitt with his 17m may still be on board...

(6) Free float?

The free float at IPO was 39.9m shares, most taken (and subsequently sold down ) by BlackRock Group, Fidelity etc.

'Unconnected' PI interest may not actually b

It's Gupta, shareholding on website matches his RNS declared stake.

Eagle Eye is family holding co, Singapore- based.

The $700 m capital injec tion from Vision Invest into ARISE may be'timeous' indeed.

Gla

Guys

The Shard valuation is (1) pre NPV 30% DRI grade enhancement; (2) is unlevered; (3) ignores C-B's new MFN status and attendant benefits - already coming through in the just-announced USD 23 Bn package; and (4) a newly cashed- up partner in ARISE , who'd doubtless be very happy to see a pelletisation plant anchoring its SEZ facility.

All that before the latest news, hat-tip Catbert on t'other board, Guinea pressuring Rio re 'add-ons'.

Suggest folk take a deep breath and wait for month-end.

NAI, DYOR, GLA and ATB

Thanks for this.

Key takeaways/read-across:

(1) .."GAC's failure to meet pledges to construct an alumina refinery in the country. This commitment was not a minor detail but a cornerstone of the original agreement between the government and EGA... essential to Guinea's industrial development strategy rather than merely an optional add-on..."

.."GAC .. was viewed as a potential model for future projects combining resource extraction with industrial development..."

So, GAC welshed on its side of the deal?

(2) Industry Response

Major [aluminum] producers will likely accelerate efforts to diversify [bauxite] sourcing in response to this development. Countries like Australia, Brazil, and Jamaica may see increased interest from [aluminum] producers seeking more politically stable supply sources.

Guineas is THE dominant supplier - approx 70% of China's bauxite imports. So there's an immediate supply replacement issue.....not a (longer-term) substitution issue, as is the case with Zanaga.

(3) Product quality....."[bauxite] has become an increasingly strategic resource.

The production process is energy-intensive, making access to affordable, high-quality [bauxite] a critical competitive advantage for [aluminum] producers. [Guinea]'s high-grade reserves have made it an increasingly important player in global [aluminum] supply chains..."

(4) .."Requirements for local processing and value addition are becoming standard in new mining agreements across the region. Companies planning new projects must increasingly incorporate downstream processing facilities into their development plans to secure government approval...."

It's lucky that ZIOC has a partner/shareholder in ARISE, with an SEZ facility to hand and who'd be more than happy to host a beneficiation/pelletisation plant that would tick that developmental box.....

(5) GAC's failure to perform-per (1) above - gives Guinea a good defence (AFAICS) against international arbitration, in any event a lengthy process.

ZIOC and C-B will doubtless be aware of the very different situation pertaining in C-B's own litigation - C-B's expropriation of Mbalam/Nabeba and (tangentially) Mayoko Moussindji - being arbitrary/wilful and likely benefiting 'connected' locals .....and the former (Sundance Resources) due for final award 28 November 2025.....

(6) Deal scrutiny : every party with an axe to grind - local politicians, business rivals, the ESG community, the end-consumers - will be sensitised to all the above and looking for 'issues' from their particular perspective.

The reputational risks for all involved will be correspondingly high....and transparency will be at a premium, IMO.

Discovery Alert appears to focus on ASX-listed, maybe it could be persuaded to look at Zanaga from a Fortescue Gabon/Belinga perspective ? Esp given the ARISE overlap...and its (fortuitously timed?) $ 700M equity raise....

GLA and ATB

..Turns out the opposite of a red flag is a green flag..."

And yellow is 'caution', whilst white is 'slow moving'.

Your point being ?

I'm waiting for the chequered one, myself!

;->

ARISE's investment is equity, not funding, so there's a fair bit more 'bang for the buck' than US$ 700 million.

It's not overly clear what VisionInvest itself has invested in, but co-owner AlMuhaidib (ex Iraqi Saudis) website seems to suggest that Vision's portfolio is worth US$ 107.6 Bn (?!),sister Co ACWA (in J/V with PIF and others) is worth US$ 103.7 Bn (?!) and that the family has shareholdings in banks in Saudi and Iraq and various industrial ventures in Egypt.

https://muhaidib.com/en/article/visioninvest

The other VI co-owner, the AbuNayyan family are big in local industry, agriculture , water desalination and pipelines etc.

The Chairman of VI and ACWA , mohammad abunayyan has a Forbes rating

https://www.forbesmiddleeast.com/lists/the-worlds-richest-arabs-2025/mohammad-abunayyan/

behind 3 of the AlMuhaidibs

https://www.forbesmiddleeast.com/lists/the-worlds-richest-arabs-2025/emad-al-muhaidib/

https://www.forbesmiddleeast.com/lists/the-worlds-richest-arabs-2025/essam-al-muhaidib/

https://www.forbesmiddleeast.com/lists/the-worlds-richest-arabs-2025/sulaiman-al-muhaidib/

FWIW

GLA

.."Argentina: President Javier Milei vetoed an opposition-backed bill that mandated automatic transfers to provinces worth 0.1% of GDP, consistent with his strategy of refusing to authorise any fiscally costly measures.

The move leaves him increasingly isolated from governors and congressional blocs, especially after weak results in the Buenos Aires mid-terms.

However, the decision underscores his reliance on {Que? his 'prioritisation of'.....surely ?] fiscal orthodoxy even at the cost of political capital..."

Evidently Milei isn't a (Groucho) Marxist:...'These are my principles. And - if you don't like these, I have others'.

You stick to your guns, mate.

IMO, GLA and ATB

...Continued...

"According to reports, Pete Hegseth, the US Secretary of Defence, has in recent weeks been trying to set up a telephone call with General Zhang. Why would Hegseth call for a meeting with the vice chairman of the CMC rather than with his political counterpart, the defence minister Dong Jun? Perhaps US intelligence has an idea about who is increasingly the real power behind the throne in Beijing?.

As my pappy used to say : 'Consider the source'.

GLA and ATB

..For Modi, the meeting could be seen as putting two fingers up to Trump’s tariff threat if India does not stop buying oil from Russia. But it does not mean India is rolling over to China. As I wrote in these pages last year, whereas Russia needs ‘a big-brother China relationship, India sees itself as the equal of China. A subservient role would not work’.

When asked whether India sided with the West or with Russia, the external affairs minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has said: ‘I think we should choose a side, and that’s our side.’ Noticeably, Modi did not hang around for Xi’s 3 September military parade. Instead, he flew to Japan, a country with which India conducts joint naval exercises aimed at the naval containment of China. In Tokyo, he signed a deal to use Japanese, not Chinese, high-speed trains.

3. There was a long delay in announcing who was going to be the parade marshal on 3 September. Usually, it is a job done by a full general and head of the Central Theatre Command, whose job it is to defend (or control) Beijing. This time the role was given to a junior lieutenant general. The rumour is that Zhang Youxia, vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) and the general who is supposedly leading the move against Xi behind the scenes, has taken personal control of the Central Theatre Command. In a demonstration of strength, Zhang moved the 82nd Group Army – the main PLA unit that put down the Tiananmen Square uprising in 1989 – into central Beijing before the 3 September parade.

Placements at the parade also seemed to hint at shifts in power. General Zhang was on the front row with the politburo standing committee members. Even more intriguingly, state television gave a long camera pan on the arrival of Wang Yang, a former standing committee member once discarded by Xi, who is now tipped as a possible next CCP general secretary or premier. Chinese TV is always up to date on who politically is in or out.

4. Although Chinese and western media bigged up the number of foreign dignitaries (26) who attended the military parade, the numbers were down on the 44 who attended in 2015. Ten years ago, attendees included Tony Blair and the former German chancellor Gerhard Schröder. No such grandees this time. Far from China being stronger, as many in the West have concluded, it is more convincingly argued that China is more isolated now than at any time since the 1980s.

5. The 3 September celebrations also renewed speculation about Xi’s health. In Tibet he looked ponderous and unsteady on his feet. Likewise at the parade. In addition, comments were made about his puffy and reddish complexion. Some have speculated that this is characteristic of liver disease. It is a diagnosis compatible with his reputation as a heavy drinker.

Continued...

But the most revealing takeaway of all from the last month comes from America not China. According to reports, Pete Hegseth, the US Secretary of Defence, has in