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Milei's obv a polarising/Marmite figure...

.." Argentina: President Javier Milei’s approval rating slipped to 43.8% in August from 45.1% in July, while disapproval rose to a record 51.1%, leaving him with a net rating of -7.3%, the second lowest of his term. Polling showed a sharp deterioration in

consumer confidence, particularly regarding the macroeconomic outlook and labour market. Mentions of the economy as the country’s main problem climbed to 28%, overtaking corruption and unemployment. Despite weaker approval, Milei remains the best-rated political leader nationally [Ed.: !!], with Peronist opposition figures continuing to lose traction as their disapproval ratings rise..."

And here's another thing: a bit more speculative, since I can't recall (DAK ?) how the name of Fahad al Tamimi surfaced as, potentially .."The Founder of a Saudi Arabian investment fund focused on developing downstream processing plants in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia..."

If the identification is correct, that would be a further, helpful connection, this time to Ma'aden.

See https://www.timcosa.com/fahad-al-tamimi.html

for his engineering consultancy background at Saud Consult and other business interests

.."Fahad Al Tamimi is also the former CEO of SaudConsult, the largest engineering company in Saudi Arabia, and he continues to advise the company’s Founder and Chairman in a senior consultant capacity...

It is estimated that through these engineering groups, Fahad Al Tamimi was previously responsible for 60 – 70% of the engineering works undertaken by the world’s largest oil company (Saudi Aramco)..."

The profile goes on:

.."He is the former Chair and Co-owner of Worley Parsons Saudi Arabia – a leading service provider in the engineering sector in Saudi Arabia.

Under Fahad Al Tamimi’s leadership, Worley Parsons managed the $5billion phosphate programs for Ma’aden in Saudi Arabia..."

which included EPCM responsibility, according to

https://www.arabnews.com/node/2242981/business-economy

.."RIYADH: Saudi Arabian Mining Co., also known as Ma’aden, awarded an engineering, procurement and construction management contract to Australian consultant Worley and Morocco’s JESA International for the first phase of its Phosphate 3 project.

“We are pleased that Worley has been selected for providing services to Ma’aden’s Phosphate 3 development program that is expected to make Saudi Arabia one of the leading phosphate fertilizer exporters worldwide,” said Chris Ashton, CEO of Worley in the statement.

As per the agreement, in-Kingdom services will be provided by Worley, while out-of-Kingdom services will be provided by JESA International.

The project consists of the design and construction of new process plants in the Saudi industrial cities of Wa’ad Al Shamal and Ras Al-Khair...."

His declared Western shareholdings include Canada-listed Mason Graphite and Black Swan Graphene, which shows an interest in 'green' investments.

As ever, open to corrections or clarifications.

GLA

PS

Here's an Ausenco fact-sheet re PSEI

https://psei.co/services-copy-4/

that references both Ausenco's work on the Anglo pipeline in Brazil and PSEI's work on 'Glencore's (sic) ZIOC Banking Feasibility Study.

https://psei.co/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/PSEI2018_SOQ.pdf

Note that it's also done work for Essar Group and has built a phosphate slurry line in Saudi (Al Jalamid phosphate mine, 1150 Km), owned 30/70 by SABIC and Ma'aden.

It's a small (specialist) world.

ATB

Hi Catbert,

Thanks for engaging!

(1) Re GLEN/C-B, I agree your interpretation of the situation - and if a 'guess' on your part, quite insightful: see this headline

https://www.africaintelligence.com/central-africa/2024/12/20/impatient-glencore-badgers-brazzaville-to-pay-debt,110354498-art

'Badgers' is quite evocative language!

Note in particular (a) the date and (b) that this was preceded shortly beforehand by an 'on again/off-again' settlement proposal FROM C-B to Sundance Resources re its expropriated Nabeba asset in favour of murky Chinese interests, see

https://www.sundanceresources.com.au/irm/pdf/2c57ac09-182a-49d8-ad4e-f48a0b8f6f53/AGM-Chair39s-Address.pdf?Platform=ListPage

And -perhaps more topically - that we learn in early Feb 2025 how the GLEN $ 349m was repaid:

https://www.africaintelligence.com/central-africa/2025/02/10/trafigura-comes-to-rescue-of-snpc-by-settling-glencore-debt,110373315-art

It's unusual for one trading house (or bank) to bail out another, esp. when it has its own bad debt history with the same debtor.

Trafigura is like an early GLEN - employee-owned ; has turnover of approx $250Bn pa; has had a base metals relationship with Abu Dhabi's Mubadala since 2015; and is part of the J/V with Mota-Engil of Portugal, and Belgian rail operator Vecturis, that has a 30-year concession to operate the Lobito rail corridor, which runs across Angola to the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Its company the Lobito Atlantic Railway committed to upgrading infrastructure and services, investing US$455,000,000 in Angola and up to US$100,000,000 in the DRC.

Note also that in Nov 2024, Trafigura and Mubadala are reported as divesting of an existing iron ore/port JV in Brazil...

https://www.chemanalyst.com/NewsAndDeals/NewsDetails/mubadala-capital-prepares-sale-of-porto-sudeste-iron-ore-port-31418

Q: Could Mubadala/Trafigura fit the GIS ownership description of 'strategic industry entities seeking to develop integrated steel facilities supplied by high-grade pellet feed iron ore to the Americas and the Middle East'?

(2) FEED : if 'mostly done' (by inference of MK's remarks), it would be have to mainly by PSEI, no? Perhaps on informal supplier credit terms as quid pro quo for the subsequent business ($20m or so modest in the scheme of things). This would have to show up in the interims....due by Sept 30.

PSEI (HK) has a 10% ? shareholding in Binding Solutions.

(3) Thanks for the Anglo lead - I wasn't aware of their African replacement 'driver'.

Apart from ZIOC investor overlap, Anglo is already supplier to Foulath pelletising plant in Bahrain...and developed the slurry pipeline in Brazil, using Ausenco, on which ZIOC's proposed export route is modelled.

https://ausenco.com/projects/minas-rio-iron-concentrate-pipeline-system/

All very incestuous...

ATB and GLA

Hi Mitch984,

Thanks for raising this point.

This is what Copilot listed as AIM 'orderly market provisions', for general edification:

Provision Type Description

Volume restrictions Limits on how many shares can be sold per day/week

Broker coordination Sales must be conducted via a nominated broker to avoid price disruption

Advance notice Shareholder must notify the company or broker before selling

No block sales Prevents large one-off disposals that could tank the share price

No short selling Prohibits hedging or shorting against the company’s shares

Provision Type Description

Volume restrictions Limits on how many shares can be sold per day/week

Broker coordination Sales must be conducted via a nominated broker to avoid price disruption

Advance notice Shareholder must notify the company or broker before selling

No block sales Prevents large one-off disposals that could tank the share price

No short selling Prohibits hedging or shorting against the company’s shares

Hi Driving,

I'm with you.

(1) ZIOC's cash burn is already looming as an issue;

(2) We've no idea what the status of FEED (cost ? $ 18>22m, depending how much already done) finance is, I've previously speculated that GIS's offtake 'allocation' (part) might be sweetener to lure someone into a small private placement : 25m shares (3%) placed @ 60p would cover FEED...and give an immediate read-across that might encourage Elphick's (2) and (3) to sell out, esp given the uncertain alternative (s).

(3) I've also wondered whether Ivan Glasenberg, now retired from GLEN 'to spend more time with his money' - est $ 9.4 Bn - and with contacts but 'plausible' deniability, might be in the mix somewhere? There was talk of him post retirement starting a hedge fund or private equity venture.

Let's see what September brings!

ATB

Hi all,

Lots to noodle over on a 15m 'long run' this morning.

It's worth looking at the various topics raised from Elphick's perspective - at 3 levels: (1) what's good for him; (2) what's good for his mates (maybe including the Garbet crowd); and (3) what's good for humble PI's (aka 'cannon fodder').

(1) the agreement not to delist was extracted from GLEN - in Dec 2022- because the 'acquisition' of its shareholding resulted in them having a (large) minority direct stake in ZIOC (= topco).

It protected (1), (2) and (3) from GLEN using its 48.3% shareholding in ZIOC as the core of any de-listing initiative.

The 'acquisition' was an attempt to get around an inherited situation, dating back to the GLEN ambush of Xstrata and consequent acquisition by default of Xstrata's J/V deal with ZIOC.

Ivan's lack of interest in 'greenfield' projects (+ GLEN's perceived effective 'nix') has IMO blocked any successful development, even when conditions were otherwise favourable.

(2) the recent new shareholder buy-in was a private placement, agreed to/initiated by ZIOC itself (or maybe, AT/MK) as a way of breaking the continuing logjam.

If you've invited the camel to put its nose under the tent flap and can 'do the math', you're presumably aware of the potential consequences of your action - and yet Elphick gave the deal his blessing. Why?

(3)TINA : I think it likely that progress since Dec 2022 was still blocked, by the second leg of the 'acquisition' - GLEN's ongoing control of marketing/offtake rights. We have anecdotal evidence that this was an issue for Manara/Ma'aden at Future Industry Forum, I think it's a more fundamental issue for the (overwhelmingly-likely) end-buyer, China.

(4) China seems happy to work with GLEN as an opportunistic supplier of COAL, when domestic supply tightens or there are geopolitical tensions eg Australia, it also imports from Indonesia, Mongolia and Russia. Its long-term energy strategy leans heavily on domestic coal and renewables.

(5) GLEN adds no obvious value to China's IRON ORE trade, which (coincidentally, since 2022) is increasingly through the BaoWu-led 'Mineral resources Group', aiming to consolidate buying power across 500+ steel mills, importing 1.1 Bn tons annually.

See https://magazine.cim.org/en/news/2022/weekly-mining-news-recap-july-29-2022/

(6) The allocation of 20% to GIS (however opaque/problematic to us, may be attractive - incl. perhaps for that reason ;-> - to Strategics, and is an explicit signal that ZIOC (and its new shareholders) are now 'open for business' in a way/ways that it/they haven't been up to now.

(7) Requiring Elphick to keep his 9.6% shareholding for min 6 months seems a standard placee requirement, it's unclear whether he or the new investors are/have been using the time to consolidate their 'side's' share numbers...and, if so, to what end.

(8) From China's perspective, its surely a case of 'If not now, when?'.

AFAICS

GLA

Little Den's twitter feed reports of a proposed twinning arrangement between Yokohama and Pointe Noire (including port management, which may be news to AD Ports ;->), see

.."Denis Christel Sassou Nguesso

@ChristelSassou

Aug 30

As part of my mission in Japan, I had the opportunity to meet with Mr. Takeharu Yamanaka, mayor of Yokohama, a city that hosted the ninth Tokyo International Conference on African Development (#TICAD 9).

Our discussions focused on the prospect of a twinning arrangement between Yokohama and Pointe-Noire, within the framework of decentralized cooperation...."

Meanwhile, Big Den's feed (5 hours ago) announces summat different:

.."At the invitation of his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, the President of the Republic, @SassouNGuesso_ , left Brazzaville on August 31, 2025, for Beijing.

In the Chinese capital, the Congolese Head of State will attend the festivities related to the 80th anniversary of the victory in the Chinese people's War of Resistance against Japanese aggression...."

On a more serious note (which isn't a very high bar), this seems rather 'spontaneous', maybe summat else is going on.

Or not, as the case may be.

GLA

Agreed.

Also relevant is this extract from the article:

.."MinRes and Mitsui support trials of pellets in ironmaking

Elsewhere, Mineral Resources and Mitsui & Co. have invested in UK-based Binding Solutions’ Cold Agglomerated Pellets, which can be used to replace standard indurated or sintered materials in iron-making processes, according to the company. The process, it says, is 30–40% less energy intensive and reduces emissions of CO₂, nitrogen oxides and sulphur oxides by 70% compared to traditional methods because it doesn’t use high temperatures. The company has done a 250t trial for British Steel and is now looking to scale, starting with a plant that can process 350,000t.

Company CEO Jon Stewart says Binding Solutions is in discussions with several miners and steelmakers to secure funding.

“Miners need this interim technology and that is why they have an interest; how do they MINE NOW IN NEW LOCATIONS, ACCESSING NEW MARKETS, and create that value to the steelmaker? Our technology is the conduit that allows them to do that,” he says.

I wonder what/who prompted the author to compile this 'tour d'horizon' of what's going on in the sector?

GLA

The decarbonisation process, he adds, driven by various regulations and targets, is forcing miners to take a more downstream role.

.."It could depend whether said EPC partner is needed as an EPC partner or EPCM partner, and does that differ depending on our route to finance..."

Great insight, thanks.

Hi shaun86,

.."EPC companies may handle sensitive technologies, processes, or designs in mining projects. Anonymity helps prevent competitors from gaining insights or reverse-engineering methods, especially in high-stakes iron ore extraction involving proprietary equipment or efficiency techniques. Confidentiality agreements are common in EPC contracts to safeguard this..."

Thanks.

I get that generic explanation, but then there's this specific ZIOC puzzle:

(1) Any MoU would normally give the name of the counterpart ZIOC had an 'understanding' with...and we were clearly told we could expect an ANNOUNCEMENT of this MILESTONE as item 1 of the timeline.

RNS'ing the 'news' of an MoU with a not-to-be-named counterpart would be counter-productive, surely?

Esp as this counterpart's identity (involved in/responsible for most of the 'value enhancement' initiatives) is pretty key to the credibility of the whole exercise!

So I would argue that EPC contractor identity in ZIOC's case is particularly 'material' news that should be properly disclosed to the market.

(2) In any case, between us on this board we've been able to establish pretty conclusively that our counterpart is PSEI...and we're just private investors: a serious commercial competitor/IP pirate could easily work out for itself what we've found out as amateur internet detectives...and then a heck of a lot more by e.g. bribing or suborning a disaffected PSEI employee.

All very unsatisfactory, IMO.

Cheers, Driving!

If all were directional ie buys by the 'in'crowd, that would be 2 x 3% stakes...

ATB

.."Shard tranches most likely.."

Why do you say this?

(1) Absent TR-1's we've no idea how the recent $ 21.5m placement shares were transacted.

(2) Elphick's 300K subscription last summer was 'Outside a trading venue', as was MK's 7.75m in the recent placement

(3) AFAICS, 12 m of Shard Existing, Tranche 3 (12m) + 2,380,953 of Shard 2024 ESA Tranche 1 (12m) was used last summer, so -if correct- Shard would only have been able to place (12m-2,380,953 =) 9,619,047 since then, after which we'd expect ZIOC to RNS what £ proceeds had been realised from Tranche 1 and notify issuance of 12m new shares for Tranche 2, if needed.....

(4) I asked for confirmation of this at the time, but - perhaps predictably - never got a reply.

I get the impression that the opaque 'large volume/late reported' trades we're discussing add up to a lot more than 9.6 million.

Has anybody kept a tally?

GLA

.." the end game which is potentially 3/6/9 months away.."

Reminder:

- Of the 4 Project value enhancements scheduled for Q2, only 1 has been (part) delivered 'DRI test results ' undertaken by a party or parties unknown.

The IDENTITY of the EPC contractor ZIOC first engaged TWO YEARS AGO in June 2023 (PSEI, from a reverse-image search and other sources) for 2 of the 'undelivered' 3 enhancements (Slurry Pipeline and Pelletisation Plant) has still not been disclosed. And an MoU (again, with PSEI) was scheduled) to be signed by June 2025.

- There are a further 2 x Project value enhancements due by Q3 2025, which ends in 30 days. One of these (Dry Stack Tailings) also appears to depend on PSEI.

- The 'formal bid process' for a Strategic deal - which could take the shape of a 'Project/TopCo transaction' - is also due by Q3 2025, which ends in 30 days.

I doubt whether our new luminaries - former Chairmen, CEO's and main board directors of industry-leading companies - would have tolerated this level of timeline slippage/over-promise and under-deliver in any business unit reporting to them.

I assume that they're being deliberately 'hands off'.

GLA

There's nothing to stop someone copying this message to the Nomad, whose answerable to the FCA (hah!) and has a UK business/presence to bear in mind...

Or indeed, several of us.

Talk is cheap.

GLA

I asked Copilot

Q: What is the carbon footprint impact of Fortescues various 'emissions-reducing initiatives' trucks, train, plant etc, vs total attributed emissions from the steel made from its ore?

A: Fortescue’s Emissions-Reducing Initiatives (Scope 1 & 2)

Fortescue has invested heavily in electrification and renewables across its mining operations:

-Electric haul trucks & trains: Trials and early deployment of battery-electric and hydrogen-powered vehicles.

-Renewable energy: Solar and wind installations to power mine sites and processing plants.

-Green fleet & infrastructure: Electrified drill rigs, conveyors, and beneficiation plants.

These initiatives aim to reduce Fortescue’s Scope 1 (direct) and Scope 2 (purchased energy) emissions. As of recent disclosures:

Fortescue’s total Scope 1 & 2 emissions were around 2.2 million tonnes CO₂e/year.

The company targets net zero Scope 1 & 2 emissions by 2030, with interim reductions already underway.

Even if Fortescue cuts 100% of its operational emissions, that’s just a fraction of the total lifecycle footprint.

Steelmaking Emissions from Fortescue Ore (Scope 3)

This is where the real carbon load sits—Scope 3 emissions from customers using Fortescue’s ore in blast furnaces:

-

-Fortescue ships ~190 million tonnes of iron ore annually.

-Traditional blast furnace steelmaking emits ~2 tonnes of CO₂ per tonne of steel.

-Assuming ~1.6 tonnes of ore per tonne of steel, Fortescue’s ore contributes to ~380 million tonnes of CO₂/year in downstream emissions.

That’s nearly 175x more than Fortescue’s own operational footprint."

Back to me : On the face of it, 'No contest' as to where FMG should deploy its funds.

GLA

Hi Catbert,

Thanks for this, esp. the second link. I see from this and related articles that :

(1).." the use of proceeds is not restricted, Fortescue plans to use the facility for GENERAL CORPORATE PURPOSES and its DECARBONISATION plans, the company said..."

(2) Its .." new $2-billion yuan-denominated loan is roughly four times what the iron-ore miner initially sought from lenders, reflecting strong demand among Chinese banks to put cash toward DECARBONISATION."

https://www.wsj.com/business/fortescues-beefed-up-2-billion-loan-reflects-china-bet-on-energy-goals-94e1fd8a?msockid=2207949d1d256e9f389682cb1c5f6fa3

(3) But .." none of the capital will fund its delayed hydrogen developments...".

https://energynews.biz/fortescue-secures-2bn-loan-but-green-hydrogen-projects-remain-on-hold/

.."Notably absent from the spending plan is direct investment in the large-scale hydrogen projects Fortescue has been championing for years.

The omission underscores growing uncertainty around the miner’s clean energy ambitions. While Fortescue Future Industries (FFI) once targeted 15 million tones of green hydrogen production annually by 2030, several flagship projects — including those in Australia, South America, and Africa — have faced delays or downsizing. Industry analysts note that high capital expenditure requirements, coupled with persistent cost gaps between green hydrogen and conventional fuels, are SLOWING FINAL INVESTMENT DECISIONS across the sector.

For Fortescue, whose iron ore business is its primary revenue driver, allocating fresh debt to non-hydrogen activities (> INPUTS) signals a potential recalibration of priorities in the face of operational and market pressures."

(4) The rationale (same source) is : .."another dimension of Fortescue’s strategy: deepening integration with the supply chain of its largest iron ore customer while leveraging China’s manufacturing capacity for renewable energy components.."

The caveat - re hydrogen ventures - being that '"without near-term project commitments, the benefits remain theoretical.."

(5) So: FMG has a 'windfall' pot of (unrestricted) cash; a renewed commitment to decarbonize, enthusiastically supported by Chinese banks; limited application potential for green hydrogen because uncommercial; and a backdrop blending requirement for its ORE INPUT that would address a true decarbonisation strategy (= emissions reduction) far more materially than buying a fleet of electric trucks....

(6) It was (coincidentally ?) 2 months ago that Elphick said .."The ability to consistently produce high grade DRI pellet feed concentrate, suitable for DRI pellet production to supply EAF steel customers, provides a clear competitive advantage and highlights the Zanaga Project's investment appeal to strategic and financial investors, whilst contributing to sustainable steelmaking and aligning with global efforts to reduce industrial carbon footprints.."

'Follow the money"!

ATB

Hi MM,

You/AI say blithely:

Proof of ore quality (done ✅),

The relevant bit from the 18th March 2025 RNS is a bit more detailed - and suggests that some work may remain to be done before anyone will commit meaningful sums of money.

.."The Company will immediately be conducting a LABORATORY-SCALE test work programme capable of completion within a short timeframe, and, if successful, the Company will consider PILOT SCALE test work supported by conducting test work on a BULK HAEMATITE SAMPLE.

Conclusion: Study to be conducted DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR to evaluate this high impact value upside opportunity, which is now being prioritised for immediate assessment..."

ZIOC themselves have acknowledged here that achieving 'proof' is neither quick or simple.

The 25th June update amplified the description of the work undertaken:

.."The PRIMARY test work programme was conducted in China, involving comprehensive LABORATORY analyses, employing magnetic separation and flotation processes. "

No indication as to when/whether ZIOC will proceed to the BULK test sampling, for which ZIOC allowed 'the remainder of the year' in the initial RNS.

As someone once (almost) said : 'In theory, there's no difference between theory and practice. In practice there [Ed.:sometime] is'.

There's rather a lot riding on this proof, including the potential pelletisation plant and the (relatively) recent discovery of ZIOC's potential attractiveness to the EAF market.

As hard-headed businessfolk, I'm sure that any Strategic investor will be starting from the premise that 'trust is good, but checking is better'.

Wouldn't you agree?

Hi MM,

MK's linked in comment appears to be from his Jun27 update re his Future Steel Forum drop-in, so hardly 'new news' ...and it's not clear what unsourced 'direct insight' adds in value to the statement that Strategics consider the 80% offtake unallocated as 'lucrative', unless the commercial terms have been disclosed.....wasn't that your gripe about the GIS 'allocation'?

Meanwhile, ZIOC has tweeted another 'nothingburger' Fastmarkets endorsement:

.."Zanaga Iron Ore

@Zanaga_Iron_Ore

·

2h

According to @Fastmarkets , the global iron ore market will be worth $397.98 billion by 2032, up from $279.35 billion in 2023. This growth presents opportunities for iron ore projects with large, high-grade resources, such as the Zanaga Project".

Still, I suppose that emphasizing the potential value rather lays to rest the notion that ZIOC is planning to take the co private on the cheap.

Every cloud, etc.

GLA

Milei's comment, at the end of a new building dedication ceremony:

https://www.lanacion.com.ar/politica/javier-milei-en-medio-del-escandalo-por-los-audios-creen-que-me-preocupa-lo-que-puedan-hacer-de-aca-nid25082025/

.."I don't care how much damage they can do between now and 7 September or even 26 October. If I turned around a 123-year fiscal deficit in a month, do you think I'm going to worry about what they're going to do to me in two months?’ asked the leader of La Libertad Avanza, ending the sentence with an ironic laugh..."