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Ashmore's take..

" A corruption scandal broke after leaked audio implicated the Head of the National Disability Agency Diego Spagnuolo,

in a kickback scheme tied to medicine purchases, with some leaks referencing Karina Milei, General Secretary of the

Presidency and sister of President Javier Milei.

The government moved quickly to remove Spagnuolo and framed the episode as a political operation led by Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s allies.

While the scandal has generated headlines and federal raids, its direct impact on the election outlook appears limited, though it risks distracting from the government’s reform agenda in the short term.

Economic activity has remained subdued over the past two months, reflecting both tight monetary conditions and weak domestic demand. The University Government Confidence Index fell 13.6% month-on month, marking its lowest level since Milei took office, highlighting some erosion of confidence as the adjustment process weighs on sentiment.

However, inflation remains the most important metric for Argentinian consumers and businesses, which has stabilised at below 2% mom since May, a level where it has not been, on a sustained basis, since 2017.

This political success is significant and still stands Milei in good stead to perform well in the mid-terms in October, in our view.

In Congress, debate over overturning presidential vetoes on pension spending forced the government to agree to a

disability pension increase, highlighting the kind of political compromises needed in a currently fragmented legislature."

GLA

See

https://content.fortescue.com/fortescue17114-fortescueeb60-productionbbdb-8be5/media/project/fortescueportal/shared/documents/regulatory/transcripts/fy25-full-year-results---investor-and-analyst-call-transcript.pdf

- joins BHP and Rio in playing down Australia's prospects of developing a 'green ore' domestic sector, given lack of economic incentives;

- but sees 'aggressive moves' by Saudi Arabia to get into this space;

- acknowledges declining grades and increased domestic transport costs because of distances; argues that deterioration in quality can be offset by improved processing technology ie beneficiation of lower grades;

- will high-end DRI steelmakers focus on green ore or 'buy and blend'?

A: depends on timing of energy transition...so will be opportunistic: '" our customers are indicating they want a greener product, and right now that is through a much, much higher grade, which we've said only 3 to 5 per cent of the world's reserves actually meet that specification."

- are you looking to grow organically or inorganically? Priority is to protect/strengthen existing business and China relationship. Organic growth is 'critical minerals' exploration, wait and see.

- what about Belinga and the higher grades that are expected there and noting that you're still drilling and there's potentially a target resource. If the logical hub size or mine size being somewhere around the 40 to 60 million tonne mark for Belinga, what sort of depletion are you looking at globally for that to be sequenced with? Noting we've obviously got Simandou growth coming, each of the majors have their own creep scenarios that they're looking at?

When could we expect to see Gabon first ore? I don't mean the trial mine, you know, the first ore from the large investment....?

A: I can confirm that the project has a potential for significant scale and high grade. But I couldn't, at the moment, give you a perfect timeline of when.

- Gabon would give optionality, as Iron Bridge does, and as do our 'green metal' aspirations. How that flows into our core business, it largely remains unchanged.

IF WE CAN CREATE THESE OPTIONS, we don't think that there'll be a shortage of capital available in whatever arrangement we need it to be, whether or not we bring in partners or alike, into the future.

So, we're not thinking about capital constraint as yet. The work is to create the economic option."

Presentation p28 shows progression of EBITDA margin in USD/dmt :

2021 USD 99;

2022 USD 63;

2023 USD 60;

2024 USD 65;

and

2025 USD 48...

Maybe my confirmation bias, but this reads to me a bit like they're whistling in the dark.

GLA

Hi MrM

You're right, first time.

And the thought that this might all be 'dirty tricks' by the opposition HAD occurred to me.

But as my post the other day suggests, it's not just what you yourself think that matters, it's what you think other people - in this case the Argentine electorate or international investors - might think ie the second or third order consequences.

That's also why it seems 'helpful' to Milei that a number of the YPF-related matters won't get into the detail until after the election...

Thanks as ever for your take on things!

Not helpful.

hxxps://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/argentine-president-milei-embroiled-in-corruption-scandal/

Argentine police raided over a dozen luxury properties on August 22, including the headquarters of the national disability benefits agency, as a corruption investigation threatens to engulf President Javier Milei's inner circle, including his sister and close advisor Karina.

This comes after it was reported that Milei and several government officials would face criminal charges relating to alleged bribery schemes in drug supply contracts through the National Disability Agency (Andis).

uring the raids, investigators seized accounting records, phones, computers, and files. The timing proves particularly damaging as Congress moves to overturn Milei's veto of increased disability spending.

The corruption scandal, which follows an earlier investigation into Milei's alleged role in promoting the $LIBRA cryptocurrency scam, is yet another significant threat to the libertarian leader's anti-establishment credentials and fiscal austerity agenda. But more crucially, it risks derailing his party’s election campaign with the October midterm vote looming.

“It’s very hard to imagine this won’t affect Milei’s approval rating,” Lucas Romero, director of political consultancy Synopsis, told Bloomberg Linea. “This episode strikes at the core of his public image, that of an outsider who came to correct the corrupt practices of politics.”

Before this scandal surfaced, it appeared that Milei’s La Libertad Avanza party was steaming into the lead, polling at 43.8% nationwide when pooled together with alliance partner PRO, while the Peronist-Kirchnerist coalition Fuerza Patria trailed by a notable 15.6 percentage points. It now appears uncertain whether the Milei-led alliance will hold its support base steady as this latest scandal rocks the nation.

"Say it ain't so, Joe!"

And the potential fallout has been quick to appear

hxxps://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/argentina-s-international-dollar-bonds-tumble-amid-government-corruption-allegations/ar-

"The 2038 note fell 4.1 cents on Monday to 65.71 cents on the dollar, its lowest level in over four months according to LSEG data. The 2041 issue also fell over 4 cents.

Argentina's stock market benchmark fell more than 3% on Monday following a 3.8% decline last week. The peso was down over 2% against the U.S. dollar.

.."foreign investors worry a potential decline in Milei’s popularity would get in the way of his economic agenda.

“It affects the government’s capacity to be reputable enough to continue to introduce tough reform in the next two years,” Garcia said. “The Milei political strategy of continued confrontation with everyone requires him to be very popular.”

Garcia said the disability bribery scandal is particularly sensitive because it hits at the stigma that Milei "doesn’t care for the weak and the poor.”

GLA

AInvest, really?

I imagine that VALE's CEO would be surprised to see this in his in-tray, also:

.."Both companies are also investing in infrastructure to support green steel initiatives. Vale's $10 billion investment in Simandou's rail and port infrastructure ensures efficient logistics, while BHP's automation and water recycling projects reduce environmental footprint.."

Shome mishtake, Shirley?

Or rather, 'Aime' - Your AI Investment Assistant with Deep Insights.

Speaking of Gabon, there's no sign of the authorities easing their pro-nationalist stance. Au contraire:

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/eramet-names-processing-head-gabon-with-eye-manganese-ore-export-ban-2025-08-12/

And Nguemi appears to be raising the stakes for FMG/Arise somewhat, if this report is reliable:

From a 5-nation meetup of African leaders with Trump and co at the White House.

https://apanews.net/unpacking-africas-latest-economic-diplomacy-in-washington/

.."Gabon: Infrastructure projects and economic sovereignty

President Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema presented his vision for “building a strong, sovereign, and forward-looking economy,” with a focus on the flagship 901-km Belinga-Boué-Mayumba railway line, designed to transport iron ore and integrate national infrastructure.

Announced during his New Year’s address on 31 December 2024, the railway is a cornerstone of Gabon’s industrialisation strategy and effort to connect its resources to global value chains. Other key projects included an agreement with Millennial Potash for Mayumba potash, ongoing talks with ExxonMobil and Boeing, construction of the Mayumba deep-water port, the Boué hydropower dam, and financing requests to the U.S. DFC and EXIMBANK.

On the sidelines of his official visit, President Oligui Nguema held a high-level meeting at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce with investors from the mining, infrastructure, aviation, and energy sectors.

PROJECTS PRESENTED INCLUDED the Mayumba port, the Belinga-Mayumba railway, the new Andem airport, a 3,000-km road network, and IRON ORE MINING AT BELINGA and Baniaka. U.S. investors praised Gabon’s reform agenda and expressed interest in supporting these ambitious initiatives..."

And Little Den follows up with

.." I participated in a working session with officials from the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). This meeting provided an opportunity to discuss the process that could lead to the opening of a JICA office in Brazzaville. In this context, it was agreed that an expert will be dispatched to Congo in 2026 to conduct the necessary assessments..."

The dependency risk that Rio has with Simandou has been pointed out before, prompted by Twiggy Forrest's even more critical situation at Belinga (where his second horse, after 'green hydrogen', has just pulled up lame).

The new CEO may want to make his mark quickly, but I think FMG is (a) hungrier and (b) has fewer alternatives, as more iron-ore dependent (100%?) and grade-exposed.

Assuming Twiggy still talks to Gupta, he'd even be on the inside track, to pursue the horsey theme.

That's just old-fashioned commercial nous, not AI.

For an interesting, if far-fetched rabbit-hole to dive into with grok or whomever, how about having a re-run of the 'dealer' vs 'the digger' saga - that saw Ivan outflank Mick Davis in the Xstrata takeover- and hypothesize about how Ivan (now retired to spend more time with his money -est $9.3 Bn - and perhaps bored ) might get back in the game with an -out-of-left -field private approach, to shake things up a bit?

Roll on Monday...

GLA

Meanwhile, per Little Den, 'mission accomplished' : we'll graciously accept your aid, and - in return - we'd like you to support our C-B candidate to UNESCO, which we'll use as a local election 'selling point': 'look how the world loves us'...

V interesting, good stuff!

(1) Pls give the BHP iron market background that AI obviously took into accounts in its recent comments, which are otherwise context-less.

(2) Pls ask AI how it sees the trifecta RIO/ Bao Wu and ZIOC meshing, since :

- Rio's interests are to get the best, stable iron ore price;

- BaoWu's interest - depending on which part of the group - is in getting the cheapest iron ore price;

- both interest is (at level1) in getting the best = cheapest price for iron ore.... if Rio were to intervene, which path (higher or lower price) would it pursue..and why?

BaoWu's situation is the opposite - low term gain BaoWu, vs longterm gain China Inc (of which it is the dedicated 'cartel coordinator' cf Australian Wheat Board (AWB) for iron ore supply) - which side its it going to favour?

If you or AI find it difficult to answer these 'conundrums' and conflicts of interest, pls say - and why.

'Let's see what's under you (or NVDA's) hood'.

I'm genuinely interested in your (or its) thought processes.

TIA and ATB

Hi StarBright,

My first thought was ' Greater Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere', tbh.

But history may not always rhyme.

Remind me what Japan's 1930's foreign policy was all about, pls?

Palmerston : ...' it is a narrow policy to suppose that this country or that is to be marked out as the eternal ally or the perpetual enemy of England. We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. OUR INTERESTS ARE ETERNAL AND PERPETUAL, AND THOSE INTERESTS IT IS OUR DUTY TO FOLLOW'”

GLA

Especially given that this facility doesn't seem totally Japan-centric : "Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba launched a bold push to deepen ties with Africa by proposing a new “Indian Ocean–Africa economic zone,” aimed at linking economies across the Indian Ocean—including India and the Middle East—with African nations..."

First results..not obvious that there's anything for C-B

https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/politics-government/20250822-276660/

.."Japan to Provide ¥810 Billion in Infrastructure Aid to African Nations, Seeks to Reduce China’s Influence in Continent

August 22, 2025

The government plans to provide up to $5.5 billion (about ¥810 billion) to African nations to finance infrastructure projects, in an effort to counter China’s growing presence on the continent as the United States and European countries scale back their support.

The financial loans will be provided over three years from 2026 to support the development of power grids and road networks, as well as the construction of levees and dams.

The Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) will coordinate the aid with the African Development Bank. It is in addition to the $5 billion package Japan announced for the 2023 to 2025 period..."

but may encourage others to get out their cheque-books.

GLA

Oops!

The AfCFTA = "The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), known in French as the Zone de Libre-Échange Continentale Africaine (ZLECAF), represents a landmark economic policy initiative aimed at creating a single market for goods and services across 54 African Union nations. Its inception marks a pivotal step toward enhancing economic integration and promoting sustainable development across the continent..."

Little Den's tuppence-worth in Japan, hitching himself to the current bandwagon:

.."On August 21, I spoke in Yokohama as part of the ninth edition of TICAD. I first expressed my deep gratitude for the warm welcome that Japan extended to the Congolese delegation I am leading and to myself. I then stated that these meetings must serve as a compass to reinvent the way we, Africans, collaborate with our partners around the world, and more specifically with Japan, the host of the event.

I made it a point to emphasize that Africa is not seeking charity, but rather strong, balanced, and sustainable partnerships. We need funding, of course, but above all, we need technology, expertise, and skills transfer to build inclusive growth. AFRICA CAN NO LONGER SETTLE FOR EXPORTING ITS RAW MATERIALS IN THEIR UNPROCESSED STATE. With the AfCFTA becoming a reality, THE TIME HAS COME TO PROCESS OUR RESOURCES LOCALLY, to create jobs, value, and a more prosperous future for our people. I issued a clear call to Japanese investors: the Congo is ready, committed to an economic diversification that is both desired and supported by the Head of State.

Finally, I reaffirmed that the Congo believes in multilateralism and the role of international institutions. This is why we are steadfastly supporting the candidacy of Mr. Firmin Édouard Matoko for the position of Director-General of UNESCO. His background, experience, and intimate knowledge of this organization make him a natural and strong choice. I called on each of our partners to join us in this support...."

GLA

PS

I'd also refer people back to this comment from a couple of weeks ago.

I didn't understand it then and don't understand it now.

For all his hyperbole and claims of connections, MM MAY have seen, heard or otherwise become aware of something that MAY be going on in the background:

.."the 'quiet accumulation' theory may indeed have legs....

Btw, MM never expanded on this (naturally cryptic) 26 June comment, 'Strong Buy', s/p 8.50p at the time:

"It would be most convenient for a lot of people and reasons were the SP to be at 8p when major news released..."

MM's usual reply to a challenge (or indeed a question, which he sees as a challenge), is either invective aka 'play the man' or misdirection aka 'go off on another topic'. Either way, not answer a straight question.

Any friend of his out there might like to follow up on this curious observation.

TIA and ATB

Hi all,

I've put these issues to Copilot, see below.

Note that it has picked up on recent exchanges on this board and incorporated them in its answer.....this may be a useful illustration/confirmation of AI's wish to please...;->

Q: Pls describe the uses of a lockin period in company transactions, how long it typically lasts and who it applies to.

A: A lock-in period is a strategic tool used in various corporate transactions to stabilize ownership, prevent disruptive trading, and align incentives. Here's a breakdown of its uses, typical duration, and who it applies to:

Uses of a Lock-In Period

Prevent Early Sell-Offs: Ensures that key shareholders (like founders or early investors) don’t immediately sell their shares after a transaction, which could destabilize the stock price.

Signal Confidence: Demonstrates that insiders believe in the long-term value of the company, reassuring other investors.

Facilitate Strategic Transitions: In mergers, acquisitions, or restructurings, it can give time for integration or milestone achievements before ownership changes.

Protect Retail Investors*: In IPOs, it prevents insiders from cashing out too soon, giving public investors a fairer playing field.

Enable Accumulation: In some cases (like the Zanaga Iron scenario), a lock-in may allow strategic investors to accumulate shares quietly before a major announcement or buyout.

Typical Duration

IPO Lock-Ins: Usually 90 to 180 days post-listing.

M&A or Strategic Investment Deals: Can range from 6 months to 2 years, depending on the deal structure and milestones.

Private Placements or PIPE Deals: Often 6–12 months, especially if tied to performance or valuation triggers.

In the Zanaga Iron case, a 6-month lock-in was speculated to be tied to milestone achievements and potential buyout pricing.

Who It Applies To

Founders and Early Investors: Especially in IPOs or SPAC deals.

Management and Key Executives: To align their interests with long-term company performance.

Strategic Investors: In cases of private placements or joint ventures.

Major Shareholders: When their exit could materially affect market perception or control dynamics.

*Personal note: My son-in-law is caught up in a lock-in (expiring in a couple of months) in a recent v successful IPO, so I have an interest to declare.

HTH and GLA

And the relevance of Nvidia to the discussion abput ZIOC is.....?

Switching from a family saloon to a 5x more powerful/5x more expensive Maserati doesn't make me a better or safer driver.

Pls ask ChatGPT to factor in a hypothetical where (a) the Company itself proposed the de-listing; (b) used the (reasonable) argument that costs of being listed outweighed benefits (given minimal trading volumes); and (c) that it would table this for a vote at an EGM, saying that it would de-list if it received sufficient qualifying votes.

I'm obviously playing Devil's advocate here, as my contemporaneous posts elsewhere will show.

Thank you.

And then, re our possible Strategic at Ma'aden, there's this:

https://agsi.org/analysis/financial-results-raise-questions-about-the-pifs-investment-strategy/

After suggesting a re-focussing (basically, away from NEOM), article concludes:

.."The second quarter fiscal data suggests that the government is already doing this with spending down by 9% relative to the second quarter of 2024. The PIF needs to follow suit. It has already announced a strategic review of Neom, and such reviews should be extended to other large investment projects as well.

The reviews need to assess the economic and financial viability of the investments being made based on realistic assumptions about demand, costs, and rates of return.

A more focused investment approach is likely to lead to better long-term outcomes for the Saudi economy..."

See also this article https://gmk.center/en/posts/the-gulf-s-green-steel-a-glimpse-into-the-future/

which claims that the GCC already accounts for 11% of global DRI production; and details plans for development of further energy capacity by the 'usual suspects' - BaoWu, Jindal, Vale - with nary a word about the ore feedstock.

Time to get serious, Mr Wilt.

GLA