Member Info for extrader

Maybe more Ocean Infinity's cup of tea, but you'd think Saudi and the neighbours would like this stuff protected.

See maps:

(1) Specific to the incident

https://www.thenationalnews.com/future/technology/2025/09/07/middle-east-internet-slowdowns-could-last-months-after-red-sea-cable-damage/?utm_source=mail&utm_medium=socialsharebtn

(2) For the area

https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/2025/09/08/uae-internet-could-be-disrupted-for-six-weeks-amid-red-sea-cable-repairs/

SRT's MDA system would flag up any vessel that was 'loitering with intent', surely?

GLA

Ashmore comment:

.."Midterm elections in Buenos Aires were a setback for the government, with the Peronist opposition securing 47% of the vote versus 34% for President Javier Milei’s La Libertad Avanza, with 91% of ballots counted.

Milei acknowledged a clear defeat and pledged a “deep self-critique,” but vowed not to deviate from his fiscal and monetary strategy.

Ahead of the vote, consensus 2025 growth forecasts were cut to 4.4% following data revisions, tight monetary policy and market jitters, with inflation breakevens holding near 40%.

The Treasury spent USD 1.7bn to defend the Peso below ARS 1,468, highlighting limited reserves and the ‘REER-first’ approach (Real Effective Exchange Rate)BCRA Vice Governor Werning indicated reserve rebuilding will wait until sovereign market access resumes, arguing a strong real exchange rate helps anchor inflation.

Congress overrode Milei’s veto to expand disability pensions, the first democratic-era veto reversal, adding 0.5% of GDP to spending and straining surplus targets.

The provincial election was seen as a proxy for October midterms, with La Libertad Avanza NEEDING A NARROW LOSS to calm markets and limit downside risk."

More detail here:

https://www.mining.com/rio-tintos-simandou-mine-may-come-with-costly-refinery-twist/

.."Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) may be forced to make expensive downstream investments in Guinea as the military-led government pushes for local refining tied to the giant Simandou iron ore project.

Authorities in the West African nation, which seized power in 2021, have demanded that miners present firm plans to build domestic processing facilities. Officials argue that smelters and refineries are essential for Guinea to capture more value from its resources and to drive broader economic development.

The policy echoes a broader resource-nationalism trend across Africa, where governments are pressing companies to process minerals locally. In Guinea, the world’s second-largest bauxite producer, the government has already cancelled agreements with some miners, including Emirates Global Aluminium, over slow progress building alumina refineries....

.."the strategy is clear: ore mined in the country must also be processed there. “We want to build a refinery in Guinea. That’s our game plan,” Nabe(Planning Minister) told the AFR. “IF [??] Baowu comes to Guinea, they will build a refinery before shipping it out of the country”.

[Ed.: BaoWu ARE in country....as part of Blocks 1 and 2. But Nabe is thinking of BaoWu as driver of the centralised purchasing body..."“There’s a reason we are bringing Baowu into the equation because [miners] are all selling to Baowu.." Oops!]

.."Nabe compared Guinea’s ambitions to Western Australia’s iron ore mining boom decades ago, stressing that MINING REVENUE SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT AGRICULTURE, EDUCATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE'...

[Ed.: that's the sort of thing that the taxes collected by Govt are supposed to be spent on...]

Rio has temporized, saying it's "committed to working with our industrial partners and the government on a feasibility study for the construction of a pellet plant, which will help us understand the viability and options available together."

Article continues : "Simandou is expected to produce ore with close to 65 per cent iron content, well above the grades in the Pilbara which average between 55 per cent and 62 per cent iron.. The project’s high grades have raised concerns among Australian producers that the Pilbara would be superseded by its African rival. "

"Andrew Forrest, the billionaire chairman of Australia’s third-biggest iron ore miner Fortescue, has warned that Pilbara miners risk being left behind as Chinese manufacturers pivot to iron ore better suited for lower-emissions steel making from mines such as Simandou."

There's been no news, AFAICS, about his deputy Pichot's recent visit to Gabon to try and re-start FMG/Arise's stalled Belinga project...

What does Gabon's Nguema think of C-B/Big Den's new MFN status? And FMG....and Rio....and Vale ...and BHP ...and the Gulfies etc, etc

Lots of moving parts, atm.

GLA

From mining Journal today

The ghosts of Guinea haunt Rio Tinto

If new Rio Tinto chief executive Simon Trott hasn't found time to visit his former boss and near neighbour, Sam Walsh, he should do it soon to hear first-hand about the difficulty of doing business in Guinea, one of the world's most corrupt countries. The reason a meeting might be useful for Trott, and amusing for Walsh, is that the government of Guinea has just played a wild card with a demand that the Simandou iron ore project in the country's south include a steel mill, or some other form of downstream processing.

If this has been 'in the works' for some time - and arguably goes back to BigDen's elevation at FOCAC in 2024....and WangYi (Foreign Minister's) visit in JAN 2025 - then the MFN-style privileges—zero-tariff access, concessional finance, diplomatic priority—were already in the pipeline, likely negotiated quietly throughout 2024. The recent summit just formalised them.

The Americans that see China finally getting their hands on such a prize aren't the Sleepy Joe crowd when the process started - which may actually help us, as China won't want to play fast and loose, but (be seen to) do things 'by the book'.

This timeline may also explain : the C-B 'compromise offer' re Sundance Resources expropriation litigation; settlement of GLEN oil finance overdues+ GLEN 'cheap' exit; the on-again/off-again Jan ZIOC presentation; and - I defer to Kore potash investors here - the emergence of PowerChina to take over the stalled SEPCO EPC discussions.

I wonder what our 'old China hand' Clinton Dines makes of it all?

GLA

It's not clear that PSEI/'Pace' is actually an 'affiliate' of PowerChina :

http://www.psei.com.cn/qt/84.html

The company profile evidences the Ausenco link

.."Company Profile

Time of issue:2023-11-17 11:46:42 Popularity:5728

Founded in 2010, Pace quickly won the trust of customers with high-quality services and achieved great success. With branches in Beijing, Kunming, Chengde and Nowato (sic = Novato), California, Chengde Longxing Company has the national metallurgical mine design class A qualification, Kunming company has the national metallurgical mine engineering design class B qualification, and the California company has the American engineering design and consulting license. The company adopts the model of Western engineering companies and combines Chinese industry habits for daily operation management...."

and we already know that PSEI/Pace did the 'bankable feasibility level ' work for the 'Buzanaga' Project in C-B

http://www.psei.com.cn/news/230.html

BUT, there's an earlier reference here in the 2024 NY day message of Feb 2025

http://www.psei.com.cn/news/222.html to 'The preliminary design of the Congo potash mine project was approved and began to enter the construction drawing design stage."

This work and timeline fits in with Kore Potash, where after much delay PowerChina HAS indeed signed an EPC Contract, per https://www.miningmx.com/news/energy/59102-kore-gets-share-boost-after-signing-1-93bn-epc-contract/

.."PowerChina International Group, parent company of SEPCO, signed the $1.93bn EPC contract agreement in Brazzaville. The contract is fixed priced, meaning the risk of project overruns was “minimised”, said Kore in its announcement..."

There's also this https://www.worldfertilizer.com/potash/12022024/kore-potash-provide-an-epc-update/

.."During the past five months, PowerChina led FIVE EXTERNAL TECHNICAL GROUPS that completed additional design and engineering work. Specific design areas included the underground mine, mineral processing jetty and transhipment operations, energy transportation and storage, conveyor systems and material handling..."

So while it may be an over-statement to say that PSEI is a PowerChina 'affiliate', there's evidence that they've already worked together....and in Congo-Brazzaville......on a proposed pipeline....and confirmation of PowerChina's 'overall co-ordinator' function.

All good stuff.

Hi MinorMiner,

On the face of it, very encouraging......and would explain some of the opacity re PSEI, dawdling re CMEC hydropower, CEC gas-fired power, maybe even (dream on) Sounda dam... etc.

Why do you refer to a CIDCA press release, when the links provided are to tweets from (a) china-embassy.gov and (b) the Ministry of Foreign Affairs? which are different State entities....

Is it because some of the language used eg 'The Republic of the Congo is the first country to reach an' early harvest arrangement' with China under the 'agreement on economic partnership for shared development ' and 'the elevation of the bilateral relationship to a high-level community with a shared future' is CIDCA-speak? Or because there's a 'dot' missing somewhere in the evidence chain, that ChatGPT has given you and you haven't included.

September may be shaping up to be an 'eventful' month!

"My only noteworthy takeaway from this is that Mr Elphick (an insider) had no material non-public information at the time of his transactions..."

Good point, thanks.

A Devil's advocate might say that Mr Market's ( complete non) reaction to the RNS's of (1) achieving DRI grade confirmation and (b) consequent Post-tax NPV (10%) increased 37% to US$5,206 million have set a pretty high bar as to what constitutes 'material' in ZIOC's case.....

;->/;-<

ATB

Per Bloomberg

Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com

China’s Giant Iron Ore Trader Expands Clout Selling Vale Cargoes

1 day ago · China’s state-run iron ore trader is now selling cargoes for Brazilian miner Vale SA, in a sign of some softening toward the group as it becomes embedded in the Asian country’s $130 …"

Rest behind paywall.

Detailed commentary on background and analysis of possible implications for all participants contained here:

https://discoveryalert.com.au/news/chinas-iron-ore-dynamics-reshaping-vales-market-2025/

Key takeaways in ZIOC context (mutatis mutandis)

.."Future Trading Patterns

The Vale-CMRG arrangement could lead to increased involvement of CMRG in long-term contracts as relationships develop and initial spot market cooperation proves successful.

It may accelerate China's efforts to DIVERSIFY SUPPLY SOURCES [cf Simandou] while maintaining more centralized control over how those supplies are distributed domestically.

The precedent potentially creates new models for resource trading relationships that balance state interests with commercial realities in critical mineral markets..."

and this, thinking of ZIOC's own competitive advantages:

.."Competitive Positioning

Vale competes with both Australian and domestic Chinese producers, requiring careful positioning that leverages Brazil's natural advantages in CERTAIN ORE QUALITIES while addressing the GEOGRAPHIC DISADVANTAGE. "

See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monopsony

'The times they are a-changin'.

GLA

Hi Mitch

The locking covered 'Guava and its connected persons' -which Elphick clearly is - and is why I checked and quoted it.

Which lead me to the subsequent comment that he'd 'jumped the gun', technically, by a few days.

The follow on as to why? is speculation.

As you say, next week may tell us something.

AFAICS, the only clue we can see so far is that there's usually different treatment for personal holdings vs. holdings in trust.

Is there a tax expert in the house?

GLA

PS It's been several years since a just-below (then ) 3% declarable level was carved out of Guava. The holding just disposed of is Elphick personal remuneration and isn't tax-sheltered .

It's the sum of his remuneration catchup RNS'd 2/10/2023 (2,167,220 shares) and his 'tag-along' 300,223 shares bought (alongside GLEN) during the loan repayment exercise of 1/7/2024.

It would be nice to know where these shares ended up. It wouldn't be out of the question for the broker to have a buyer lined up beforehand.

For now, all we know is that Elphick has quantified (and capped) his own tax position.

The Guava Lock-in agreement covers ' subject to certain exceptions, Guava and its connected persons ' and is for 6 months following First Admission, which was 7 March 2025.

This takes us to 7th September 2025, so on the face of it, Elphick may have jumped the gun by a few days.

Is this a case of the tax tail wagging the investment dog?

GLA

Both trades were reported as 'unknown' and a day late and actually transacted (on the LSE, not off-site) on Weds 27th and Mon Sept 1st.

The Australian

https://www.theaustralian.com.au › business › mining...

Fortescue (ASX: FMG) exec Gus Pichot visits Gabon to …

2 days ago · Top Fortescue executive Gus Pichot has travelled to Gabon to assure the African nation’s leaders the company remains committed to developing a …(rest behind paywall).

2nd version says: Fortescue’s Gus Pichot assures Gabon leaders they can count on miner for Belinga iron ore project.

I wonder what prompted that initiative...and who/whom?

Sub-heading says: 'Former rugby international Gus Pichot is in charge of Fortescue’s growth projects as well as trying to breathe life into the flatlining green energy division..."

A drink in the Last Chance saloon?

GLA

Here's a flavour...

https://www.plettpolo.co.za/gallery/

GLA

.."Elphick made a lot of money when ZIOC was listed at multiples of the current SP..."

I wonder

(1) He supposedly got 50M ($ or£) when jealous Nicky Oppenheimer eased him out of the Anglo GoldfieldsDeBeers empire.

(2)The ZIOC promoters got £ 30m when they placed shares concurrently with the IPO, which likely largely paid off their investment costs.

(3) He's held on to his own ZIOC holdings AFAICS...and not taken much in remuneration.

(4) I don't follow GEMD, but believe he's been more generous to himself there. Don't have a sense of what he put in there vs what he's taken out.

(5) He's got big property interests in S Africa , established the Kurland Polo Estate in Plettenberg Bay, transforming the region into a polo hub. The club now hosts international tournaments and draws elite players and spectators from across the globe.

https://www.plettpolo.co.za/about_us/

Think Mar a Lago....

He's not short of a bob or two, I'm sure. I suspect (with no evidence) that his name and rep mean more to him at this stage of life than filthy lucre....and his.position in society amongst the gerat and the good are important to him.

It might be interesting to think of the other players and what their 'drivers' might be ? money? career? ego? 'besting the competition? something (still) to prove?

They likely have different priorities, which may be a factor in how things unfold.

AFAICS

ATB

Interesting technical market overview here that (re) validates the premium quality ore thesis.

https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/news-research/latest-news/metals/082725-trade-review-asian-iron-ore-buyers-reassess-options-in-q3-as-key-pilbara-brands-degrade

Apart from the purity/impurities differentials especially compared to ZIOC's, note (a)

- the different ways that Rio and BHP dealt with their customers:

.." Market participants noted that Rio Tinto and BHP took different approaches to updating their specifications. Rio Tinto provided buyers with advance notice before delivering the new-quality PBF cargoes, offering greater transparency, though the two-month purchase-to-consumption cycle still left some valuation uncertainty.

By contrast, BHP gradually delivered lower-quality fines before announcing updated specifications, leading buyers to largely view the announcement as confirmation of what they had already received in practice..."

and the conclusion :

.."High grades to see more demand

While the medium-grade segment remained attractive to Chinese steel mills, early Q2 loading delays for high-grade Carajas by Brazilian miner Vale have kept the 65/62 spread elevated -- a trend that may persist into Q3, market sources said.

Market sources said early-May disruptions to Peruvian concentrate supply boosted demand and use of LOW-SILICA concentrates -- particularly ANGLO American's Minas Rio and Vale's Pellet Feed Premium Acu -- SUPPORTING THE HIGH-Fe PELLET FEED MARKET."

As market participants brace for a lower-Fe, higher-silica landscape amid degradations in the medium-grade segment, high-grade products are likely to see greater uptake among mills blending feed, particularly with Rio Tinto's Simandou mine set to boost high-grade supply in the near term."

GLA

Interesting technical market overview here that (re) validates the premium quality ore thesis.

https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/news-research/latest-news/metals/082725-trade-review-asian-iron-ore-buyers-reassess-options-in-q3-as-key-pilbara-brands-degrade

Apart from the purity/impurities differentials especially compared to ZIOC's, note (a)

- the different ways that Rio and BHP dealt with their customers:

.." Market participants noted that Rio Tinto and BHP took different approaches to updating their specifications. Rio Tinto provided buyers with advance notice before delivering the new-quality PBF cargoes, offering greater transparency, though the two-month purchase-to-consumption cycle still left some valuation uncertainty.

By contrast, BHP gradually delivered lower-quality fines before announcing updated specifications, leading buyers to largely view the announcement as confirmation of what they had already received in practice..."

and the conclusion :

.."High grades to see more demand

While the medium-grade segment remained attractive to Chinese steel mills, early Q2 loading delays for high-grade Carajas by Brazilian miner Vale have kept the 65/62 spread elevated -- a trend that may persist into Q3, market sources said.

Market sources said early-May disruptions to Peruvian concentrate supply boosted demand and use of LOW-SILICA concentrates -- particularly ANGLO American's Minas Rio and Vale's Pellet Feed Premium Acu -- SUPPORTING THE HIGH-Fe PELLET FEED MARKET."

As market participants brace for a lower-Fe, higher-silica landscape amid degradations in the medium-grade segment, high-grade products are likely to see greater uptake among mills blending feed, particularly with Rio Tinto's Simandou mine set to boost high-grade supply in the near term."

GLA

Hi 99icecream

Mayoko Moussondji ex Equatorial grade vs Zanaga:

Fe 62>63% vs 68.5> 69.1%;

Si 3.4% vs. 1.05 > 1.96%;

Al 3.0% vs. 0.47>0.40%;

Phosph 0.05% vs 0.034 > 0.028%.

No comparison...

ATB

>

Https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/totalenergies-qatarenergy-and-snpc-jv-win-promising-block-offshore-congo-brazzaville/2-1-1865003

.."Work programme includes the drilling of one exploration well, which is expected to spud before the end of 2025.."

Mark Cutifani is a non-executive director of Total S.A and chairs the board's Sustainability Committee.

GLA

Ashmore latest.

Milei's obv a polarising/Marmite figure...

.." Argentina: President Javier Milei’s approval rating slipped to 43.8% in August from 45.1% in July, while disapproval rose to a record 51.1%, leaving him with a net rating of -7.3%, the second lowest of his term. Polling showed a sharp deterioration in

consumer confidence, particularly regarding the macroeconomic outlook and labour market. Mentions of the economy as the country’s main problem climbed to 28%, overtaking corruption and unemployment. Despite weaker approval, Milei remains the best-rated political leader nationally [Ed.: !!], with Peronist opposition figures continuing to lose traction as their disapproval ratings rise..."