RE: New tweet (interims)3 Oct 2025 04:22
Hi G_G_G,
'Long time, no hear'.
Welcome (back) to the board.
.." one being a full buy-out, and the other Zioc retains some ownership on a free carry,.."
My 'blink' says a compromise : full buy-out - because why have ZIOC share in all of the upside? - but with a 'consolation prize' of some share in the upside, via warrants, loan notes or legacy 'milestone payments' once certain thresholds are met.
Rationale:
(1) I assume that the end-driver is China (because it has most of the cards : commercial interest, technical capability, political motivation; financial clout;
that it (China) would rather team up (if it has to) with Brazil's Vale (an Africa experienced, Africa risk tolerant BRICS ore SUPPLIER) than an Australian /Western AUKUS SUPPLIER;
that C-B's Big Den won't want to be in China's pocket entirely (he's a past master in hedging his bets), but is 'besties' with Brazil's Lula, whose campaign he /Asperbras financed and with whom he has shared PR interests in climate and the Three Basins 'greenification';
(2) that ZIOC drivers - Elphick, ST and MK and new arrivals - are all interested either in reputational benefit or money or both, no longer (at the ages of most of them) in the hard graft/daily grind of running a business. = Cut a cute deal', burnish your rep, make a lot of money and on to the next...or into a sunny retirement. Look at the profiles of the 'players' and I don't see anyone career-driven (maybe AT?).
(3) That said, there's no reason for them to roll over: strike a good bargain and they'll benefit; so will (longer term) China; and Big Den is more likely to go along , if he sees the Westerners have put up a fight (aka done his due diligence/ negotiation for him).
(4) I'm not sure where the Gulfies fit in , since all they bring to the party is money (= useful, but a secondary consideration for the Chinese, who in any case have presumably opened their EXIM/cheap credit coffers 'in principle' as part of the MFN 'package'.
That's my 'quick and dirty' take, FWLIW.
In terms of reward to shareholder, I'd like to think that my aspirations mirrored those of the major ZIOC investors : a good initial capital return in the short term , with the carrot of further payouts down the line, contingent on satisfactory project execution.
They, of course , would have the additional, unquantified personal and professional kudos of having played a blinder.
NAI, DYOR, IMO etc etc
HTH and ATB
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