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And AFR (un)helpfully highlights 2 x logistics constraints at Simandou :

(1) Axle loads on Rio's Simandou spur railway will be 25 tonnes; well below the 42 tonne axle loads on some of the trains that carry Australian iron ore to port.

Lower axle loads will limit the Simandou partners' ability to expand production in future. And

(2) Rather than a deep-water port on the coast, Morebaya port is built on a narrow, estuarine river.

A trans-shipping operation like Morebaya is cheaper to build than a big deepwater port like Port Hedland in Western Australia, where conveyor belts stand on the wharf and pour a continuous stream of ore into the bellies of big "capesize" vessels.

But trans-shipping is less efficient once operations begin because every tonne of ore needs to be double-handled. It is also less scalable because there is a limit on the amount of ore that can be barged down a narrow river.

"The trans-shipping becomes the bottleneck," says Macquarie analyst Rob Stein, when asked about the potential for Simandou volumes to be expanded.

The AFR also leaves a hostage to fortune, when it talks about ethical and geo-political factors relevant to Simandou :

.."When Guinean president Alpha Condé was overthrown by a military coup in September 2021, it presented an ethical dilemma for Rio and the other western companies that work in the country.

Could it meet the governance standards of their first world stakeholders if they continued to work under an administration that was governed by an unelected dictator brandishing a gun?

The answer Rio found on its subsequent visits to Washington and Westminster was yes; Western governments were eager for Rio to persist in Guinea TO ENSURE THAT THE PROJECT'S INFRASTRUCTURE DID NOT BECOME ENTIRELY CHINESE-CONTROLLED."

If the recently mooted asset swap Rio/Chinalco goes ahead and Rio divests Simandou, the project WILL become Chinese-controlled.....

I think a letter to the Editor is in order.

GLA

Starting the article with a write-up of Twiggy's Belinga 'come-uppance' suggests that AFR isn't a fan....

A good find, MM.

(1) Article confirms that Fortescue/Belinga is a Norwegian Blue. So what's Twiggy going to do?

(2) Article's focus is Guinea/Simandou, used to broaden discussion to the wider market. The graphics and explanations were particularly helpful. IF, rpt IF, Rio/Trott swaps out of Simandou to lessen Chinalco influence/shareholding, there'll have to be a quick pivot to - and focus on - Plan B, by everyone, not just the AFR.

(3) ZIOC ore grade (higher); transport logistics (slurry pipeline); environmental impact (lower, not least because of (2) all compare favourably.

Corruption and lack of industrial/mining track record (other than expropriation of Australian companies) are either 'meh' or negative for C-B, esp with a gerontocrat facing an election.

So, country risk is higher up the agenda than has perhaps been acknowledged to date.

(4) Interesting that Ivanhoe rates a mention (for its answer to the logistics /political challenge) and that Cutifani and Sir Mick Davis's pictures both refer to their current Zanaga involvement. Maybe in its own way (NDA, 'off the record', no wish to 'ruffle feathers') the AFR is hinting at a story it can't yet write.

Ho hum.

Absent any reply, it would seem to be a case of 'parturient montes, nascetur ridiculus mus.'

Ho hum

Thanks for the additional flavour!

From an earlier post of yours I also appreciate these further comments re potential sale, rather than development of KP2:

.."Time value of money and 3 1/2 year build and political risk makes the case if the price is right.

The project is ready to go, it's a world class deposit near the coast with pretty stunning project economics and in an inflationary environment - this project could be worth a considerable amount as it is and with time a lot more..."

If the decision-makers among ZIOC new shareholders are deal-makers rather than empire-builders, the above arguments might resonate with (some of) them.

AIUI, NAI, DYOR etc etc

GLA

Another hat-tip to Catbert, for these further comments re potential sale, rather than development of KP2:

.."Time value of money and 3 1/2 year build and political risk makes the case if the price is right.

The project is ready to go, it's a world class deposit near the coast with pretty stunning project economics and in an inflationary environment - this project could be worth a considerable amount as it is and with time a lot more..."

If the ZIOC new shareholders are deal-makers rather than empire-builders, the above arguments might resonate with (some of) them.

AIUI, NAI, DYOR etc etc

GLA

A lot of day traders @ 300K shares per clip...?

At the risk of stating the obvious, it would seem that ZIOC appears to be tacitly already complying with all of the above, without going through the formality of seeking 'permission'.

Maybe it's adopting a 'better to ask for forgiveness' approach, which its Nomad has gone along with?

GLA

At the risk of stating the obvious, it would seem that ZIOC appears to be tacitly already complying with all of the above, without going through the formality of seeking 'permission'.

Maybe its adopting a 'better to ask for forgiveness' approach?

GLA

KP2 has put itself up for possible sale.

Some interesting and maybe relevant read-across to the ZIOC situation ('compare and contrast'), hat-tip to Catbert:

.."The UK Takeover Panel has agreed to a dispensation allowing the interested parties in Kore Potash’s sale process to remain confidential for several strategic reasons. This dispensation, under Practice Statement 31 (PS31), is granted when the Panel is satisfied that the company is genuinely initiating a formal or private sale process and wants to maximize competitive participation without prematurely identifying potential bidders.

Key Criteria for a “Genuine” Private Sale Process

Sincere Intent: The company (often through its board and advisers) initiates the process with the actual intention of selling all or a major part of the business, and not as a tactical move for another purpose.​

Structured Approach: There is an organized, deliberate process involving contacting and negotiating with multiple potential bidders privately, rather than openly in the public domain.​

Panel Engagement: The company’s advisers must consult with the Takeover Panel at the outset and continue this engagement to ensure compliance and proper management of disclosure, especially to prevent leaks.​

Sale-Focused: The process must be more than casual or opportunistic conversations—there must be clear and credible steps taken toward exploring and securing a sale transaction.​

Competitive Element: Preferably, the process should enable the company to engage with a range of bona fide bidders to maximize value for shareholders."

Catbert's take (re KP2): The indications would appear to suggest serious and advanced discussions are underway.

GLA and ATB

KP2 has put itself up for possible sale.

Some interesting and maybe relevant read-across to the ZIOC situation, hat-tip to Catbert:

.."The UK Takeover Panel has agreed to a dispensation allowing the interested parties in Kore Potash’s sale process to remain confidential for several strategic reasons. This dispensation, under Practice Statement 31 (PS31), is granted when the Panel is satisfied that the company is genuinely initiating a formal or private sale process and wants to maximize competitive participation without prematurely identifying potential bidders.

Key Criteria for a “Genuine” Private Sale Process

Sincere Intent: The company (often through its board and advisers) initiates the process with the actual intention of selling all or a major part of the business, and not as a tactical move for another purpose.​

Structured Approach: There is an organized, deliberate process involving contacting and negotiating with multiple potential bidders privately, rather than openly in the public domain.​

Panel Engagement: The company’s advisers must consult with the Takeover Panel at the outset and continue this engagement to ensure compliance and proper management of disclosure, especially to prevent leaks.​

Sale-Focused: The process must be more than casual or opportunistic conversations—there must be clear and credible steps taken toward exploring and securing a sale transaction.​

Competitive Element: Preferably, the process should enable the company to engage with a range of bona fide bidders to maximize value for shareholders."

Catbert's take (re KP2): The indications would appear to suggest serious and advanced discussions are underway.

GLA and ATB

Woodmac report

Zanaga iron ore mine

15 June 2024

.."Report summary

Zanaga is one of several West African projects that are endeavouring to tap Africa's vast iron resources. Development stopped in 2015, but following the return to a stronger market, study work has resumed and multiple production and logistics scenarios being investigated. For the purposes of modelling the project’s cash flows we have pushed back first production to 2026, but it is also likely the project will never proceed.

Mbalam Nabeba

12 June 2024

Report summary

Mbalam is a project that incorporates two deposits, Mbarga in Cameroon and Nabeba in the Republic of Congo (RoC). It straddles the border between the two countries and is approximately 320 kilometres from Yaounde, the capital of Cameroon, and 540 kilometres from the coast. Mbalam could potentially produce 40 Mtpa with 62% Fe DSO Fines. In November 2020, the mining and exploitation permits were withdrawn from Sundance and reissued to Chinese-backed Sangha Mining Development Sasu. The government of Cameroon issued its side of the license to Cameroon Mining Company in August 2022. Sundance has issued dispute notices and raised a claim for compensation with the International Chamber of Commerce. The new parties are keen to progress the project's development, with the railway construction expected to begin in the fourth quarter of 2023. The interim minister expects this year, 2024, to be the year of iron ore production from Mbalam Iron ore mine.

Mayoko

Report summary

Sapro SA purchased Mayoko-Lekoumou in the Republic of Congo from Exxaro in 2016. Reports suggest that production commenced in small quantities in 2018 but was suspended in early 2020 after a train derailment and worker payment issues. The lack of a suitable mine to port transport solution means that the ore is likely to remain on site until this is resolved. The operators are seeking finance to build a dedicated rail line which will run from the mine site to Point Noire, a distance of 441 kilometres.

21 Aug 2024 overview of 156 projects

Africa remains key

Simandou

Nimba

Zogota

Nimba (Yekepa) Phase 2

Gara Djebilet

Belinga

No one with more than a passing interest in the industry would be impressed.

I've written to them before about the lack of update ...and may do so again,

It's at least possible that they may not want to 'rock the boat' and upset our new shareholders.

GLA

See my 1446 for some of the (otherwise paywalled) content.

GLA

PPS I'm sure that the reality will fall short of the aspiration/hype, but there'll be some 'soft targets' worth protecting.

This one, for example, at Oxagon

hTTps://saudipress.com/saudi-arabia-s-neom-green-hydrogen-company-closes-deals-on-8-4bn-green-hydrogen-plant

Already 80% plant completion.

ATB

From Semafor Africa

"S&P unlocks more development funds

$800 billion.

The additional amount that African development banks could unlock this year, after S&P Global Ratings updated its framework for multilateral lenders.

The change comes as several development finance institutions have increased their capital buffers, allowing S&P to raise its risk-adjusted capital ratios by about 10%, the agency said.

Development banks are seen as increasingly central to plugging financing shortfalls in African countries as international aid programs pull back from the continent.

Global lending by development banks rose 4% between 2021 and 2024, with Africa accounting for 19% of the total, Reuters reported."

Coincidentally, from Big Den's twitter feed

Présidence de la République du Congo - Officiel

@PR_Congo

Oct 28

Cooperation |

The President of the Republic, @SassouNGuesso_ , met on Tuesday, October 28, at his residence on the plateau, with Mrs. Marie-Laure Akin-Olugbade, Vice President Principal of the African Development Bank. The discussions focused on strengthening cooperation between Congo and the AfDB."

It would have been more meaningful if the newly-installed head of the AfDB Sido Ould Tah himself had turned up, but he's got a lot on his plate.

.."The Mauritanian economist boasts almost four decades of experience in African and international finance, including as the president of the Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa (BADEA) since 2015. He led the bank to quadruple its balance sheet, securing a AAA rating, and positioning it among the top-rated development banks focused on Africa..."

AfDB recently (June 2025) committed USD 100 million to our friends at ARISE IIP

https://www.ariseiip.com/afdb-approves-us100-million-investment-in-arise-iip/

.."This investment in ARISE IIP is a signal of the Bank’s commitment to scaling up industrialization in Africa in value chains where we are competitive. This is also a demonstration of the strategic partnership we have with African MFIs such as the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) and the Fund for Export Development in Africa (FEDA), the Afreximbank’s equity impact investment arm, who are THE PRINCIPAL EQUITY INVESTORS IN ARISE IIP.

This is a good demonstration of our joint goals of making Africa’s capital work better for Africa’s development”, said Solomon Quaynor, African Development Bank’s Vice President for Private Sector, Infrastructure and Industrialization.

Gagan Gupta, CEO of Arise IIP, remarked, “The African Development Bank’s investment highlights their confidence in our model as a driver of Africa’s industrial growth. ....

Arise IIP is driven by the pursuit of green growth, with an ambition to unlock the continent’s industrial potential while neutralizing carbon emissions and climate impact."

Timeous, one might say.

GLA

From Semafor Africa

"S&P unlocks more development funds

$800 billion.

The additional amount that African development banks could unlock this year, after S&P Global Ratings updated its framework for multilateral lenders.

The change comes as several development finance institutions have increased their capital buffers, allowing S&P to raise its risk-adjusted capital ratios by about 10%, the agency said.

Development banks are seen as increasingly central to plugging financing shortfalls in African countries as international aid programs pull back from the continent.

Global lending by development banks rose 4% between 2021 and 2024, with Africa accounting for 19% of the total, Reuters reported."

Coincidentally, from Big Den's twitter feed

Présidence de la République du Congo - Officiel

@PR_Congo

·

Oct 28

Cooperation |

The President of the Republic, @SassouNGuesso_ , met on Tuesday, October 28, at his residence on the plateau, with Mrs. Marie-Laure Akin-Olugbade, Vice President Principal of the African Development Bank. The discussions focused on strengthening cooperation between Congo and the AfDB."

It would have been more meaningful if the newly-installed head of the AfDB Sido Ould Tah himself had turned up, but he's got a lot on his plate.

.."The Mauritanian economist boasts almost four decades of experience in African and international finance, including as the president of the Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa (BADEA) since 2015. He led the bank to quadruple its balance sheet, securing a AAA rating, and positioning it among the top-rated development banks focused on Africa..."

AfDB recently (June 2025) committed USD 100 million to our friends at ARISE IIP

https://www.ariseiip.com/afdb-approves-us100-million-investment-in-arise-iip/

.."This investment in ARISE IIP is a signal of the Bank’s commitment to scaling up industrialization in Africa in value chains where we are competitive. This is also a demonstration of the strategic partnership we have with African MFIs such as the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) and the Fund for Export Development in Africa (FEDA), the Afreximbank’s equity impact investment arm, who are THE PRINCIPAL EQUITY INVESTORS IN ARISE IIP.

This is a good demonstration of our joint goals of making Africa’s capital work better for Africa’s development”, said Solomon Quaynor, African Development Bank’s Vice President for Private Sector, Infrastructure and Industrialization.

Gagan Gupta, CEO of Arise IIP, remarked, “The African Development Bank’s investment highlights their confidence in our model as a driver of Africa’s industrial growth. ....”

"Arise IIP is driven by the pursuit of green growth, with an ambition to unlock the continent’s industrial potential while neutralizing carbon emissions and climate impact."

Timeous, one might say.

GLA

Thanks for the assessment of state of play, which seems plausible.

(a) does anyone have other views?

(b) .."The AGM should be interesting..."

Yes. Is anyone planning to attend?

From the 1st October RNS:

"Annual General Meeting to be held on 10th December 2025, with the requisite notice to be sent to shareholders in due course..."

At the AGM a couple of years back that I missed (train delay because of an 'incident -aka suicide - on the line') I was the ONLY (prospective) attendee: when I arrived 10 mins after the start, the room was vacated and the Board already upstairs getting on with the 'real' business of the day.

The coffee was plentiful and the biscuits very good.

It used to be said that you knew when things were getting serious by the number and proportion of 'suits' in attendance, ie corporate types rather than 'umble PI's' in their dress-downs.

Let's see if that other saying holds true : 'This time, it's different'.

GLA and ATB

PS ..."Aims to attract global yachting and elite tourism...."

That's a lorra, lorra NEXUS transceivers...

;->

GLA

Hat tip to PKLT for this

"Press release

UK Export Finance and PIF sign MoU for £4-5 billion to promote UK companies’ engagement in the Saudi market

The signing took place in the presence of Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Minister for Investment Lord Stockwood, who attended the 9th Edition of the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh.

UK Export Finance (UKEF), the UK’s export credit agency, and PIF have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to strengthen financial cooperation and expand trade and investment opportunities between the United Kingdom and Saudi Arabia.

UKEF has a total market risk appetite of £4-5 billion in Saudi Arabia. Through this MoU, the agency will partner with PIF – Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund – and its portfolio companies to access a pipeline of existing and prospective projects in the country that, if backed with UKEF financing, will offer numerous supply contracts for UK-based suppliers. The agreement will make it more attractive for companies in PIF’s ecosystem to procure goods and services from UK contractors.

The MoU also establishes a framework for closer cooperation between PIF and UKEF, that would see them share business experience and knowledge, and work together to identify mutually beneficial opportunities."

Copilot- based comment:

The SRT/PIF (as opposed to directly defence/kinetic) overlap in ..."a pipeline of existing and prospective projects in the country that, if backed with UKEF financing, will offer numerous supply contracts for UK-based suppliers...."seems likely to be in MDA for the marine tourism sector ie

- Oxagon

A floating industrial hub on the Red Sea.

Focuses on clean manufacturing, logistics, and tech innovation.

Home to the Port of NEOM, enabling multimodal trade corridors.

- Sindalah

A luxury island destination in the Red Sea.

Features marinas, beach clubs, boutique hotels, and high-end retail.

Aims to attract global yachting and elite tourism.

and maybe

-Magna

A coastal region with marine research, ecotourism, and conservation.

Focuses on preserving biodiversity and integrating nature with development."

GLA

Link provided by Seb

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-29/buoyed-by-trump-argentina-takes-aim-at-16-billion-us-judgment

Argues that election results won't factor into judges' eventual ruling but may strengthen Argentina's resilience/bloody-mindedness, esp if it thinks it has US/Trump backing.

Argues that plaintiffs have few collectible assets, so a judgment drawing YPF in would help plaintiffs' leverage, even tho' US govt has so far (amicus brief) supported Argentina sovereignty.

Commentators point to the electoral unpopularity of paying a foreign creditor [ Ed. overlooking that domestic austerity measures - though unpleasant/unwelcome - have just proved electorally popular?] ...'unless the creditor can find a way to disrupt market access'. [Ed.: that's a big caveat...and surely exactly what plaintiff will try to do...and will discourage the investment Argentina needs?]

BUR's lawyer makes the point : ' ...investors were watching Argentina’s behavior closely and would be likely to react negatively if the country avoided its obligations.

“The smart decision for the Milei government is to put this matter behind them and move forward in the global economy without the baggage this case has AND WILL CONTINUE to create for them,” Fragoso said in a statement."

One commentator said that 'Preska’s ruling on the YPF stake shows that the plaintiffs have cards to play.

“Burford can make life miserable for Argentina, and they have a judge who is motivated to execute the order,” said another. “I wouldn’t want to mess with that.”

Another said Preska’s handover order was the plaintiffs’ “big hammer” at this point."

Hedging their bets, the commentators and article conclude .." there was a possibility that Trump’s friendship with Milei could benefit the plaintiffs as well.

“It could be a Trump-style deal where Argentina gets this case settled, and the US protects American investors,” [commentator] said. “It could have a happy ending.”

I don't think that the Donald is capable of seeing an impasse without itching to resolve it.

Just AIUI.

GLA