Member Info for extrader

Hat tip to Seb

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-14/anchorage-raises-a-rare-fund-with-just-one-bet-on-argentine-suit

Anchorage Capital Advisors LP has raised a rare type of fund whose returns hinge on the outcome of a protracted and controversial lawsuit tied to the nationalization of Argentina’s biggest oil company.

The fund, a so-called continuation vehicle, holds just one asset: A loan backed by a legal claim that stems from the nationalization of YPF, according to people familiar with the matter. That means the outcome of that case will determine what investors ultimately earn.

....

The senior-secured loan in the fund had a carrying value of $188 million at the end of last year, and the total claim amount would be more than $600 million, the people said.

....

Given the rulings in Petersen’s favor, Anchorage saw further potential upside to the loan, which was previously held in its Anchorage Illiquid Opportunities Fund V from 2015, the people said. As such, Anchorage transferred the asset to a new fund when the prior vehicle expired.

....

That makes it a rarity in credit markets — a continuation secondaries fund housing a single asset. Private managers are increasingly tapping continuation vehicles to extend their hold on prized assets. They help cash out old investors while bringing in a new set of investors and fresh stream of profits.

....

Two of the three judges asked skeptical questions about whether the US District Court case that resulted in the massive award, which interest has now swelled to $18 billion, should have proceeded there. The appeals court isn’t expected to deliver a decision for several months at least, and the losing party would likely then appeal to the US Supreme Court, Bloomberg reported at that time.

In its third quarter earnings on Nov. 5, Burford noted the recent oral arguments of the appeals court. It said it believed “YPF-related assets will ultimately deliver a ten-figure recovery for Burford,” though said that “litigation risk remains.”

Note: Anchorage's total assets under management is approx $ 23.5 Billion, so they're not 'betting the farm' here.

GLA

Hi Vet 10,

.."Not sure why it would matter to them if they wanted all of Zanaga..."

I don't think Rio wants ALL of Zanaga, it may just want to replace - or add to - Simandou, where it's a minority relative to the Chinese, with an arrangement in C-B where IT - maybe with others- is in a majority vis a vis BaoWu and /or China Inc. and has more say in where the ore can actually go.

[Maybe that's where GIS comes in ?- that's a WAG ;->]

Equally, the lock-in (if at Rio's request), may be just a (low-cost) holding move while it decides what it actually wants to do: see earlier comments re the 'mixed messaging' it appeared to be sending re its attitude to iron ore...

HTH

"In fact the lock in was announced for 6 months but in fact was for 5 months in the RNS.

RNS 29th Sept to lock in 26th Feb."

As has been pointed out elsewhere, working back 6 months from 26th Feb 2026 takes you to / around 26th August 2025, the date Trott succeeded Stausholm as CEO of Rio; and Cutifani announced his intention to resign at short notice (1 month) from Vale Base Minerals on 25 June 2025, the same day that ZIOC released its DRI product quality RNS.

Coincidence? Maybe.

If Trump can throw $ 20 Bn at Argentina to influence an election outcome there, it seems plausible that China would be willing to greenlight $1 or $2 Bn to secure a strategic, physical asset in the country it's just given MFN status to and whose President is current FOCAC Co-Chair.

With Rio considering its strategic iron ore options (twist or fold?) in Guinea; Guinea's assertiveness re downstream (despite poor economics/energy shortage); the question over whether Simandou is actually DRI grade or just 'a bit better than Pilbara'; and ZIOC's non-release of promised detail re EPC contractor (Q : NDA?) or other progress on 'value enhancement', there seems to be a lot of 'convergence' re Rio and China's interests atm.

Sundance Resources' litigation outcome due later this month being an unavoidable/uncontrollable 'wrinkle' to the thesis.

Just IMO/AFAICS, feel free to dismiss as confirmation bias.

GLA

Hi Vet10,

' I was told a new website was coming and a roadshow for institutional investors...'

How long ago were you told this,pls?

TIA

.." if there are off-market deals being done why are they appearing here?.."

If (maybe a big IF) the off-market deals are truly Shard-related, then they have to be accounted for somehow, not least so that ZIOC can calculate what its 95% of proceeds amounts to and provide an audit trail.

From the New Shard Facility Description RNS 28 June 2024:

'Custodian

The 2024 ESA would provide that the Subscription Shares be held by a custodian authorized by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). Proceeds of any sale of Subscription Shares by SMC would be held by the Custodian until remitted by the Custodian to SMC and SMC would pay to ZIOC 95% of the gross proceeds of any such sales. To secure SMC's payment obligations, any proceeds of sale, as well as SMC's beneficial interest in the Subscription Shares, would be held by SMC on trust for the benefit of the Company..."

.."I don't quite share extrader's faith in Elphick wanting to preserve his good name - stronger evil forces may sweep him underfoot! "

You may well be right, who knows what anyone's 'breaking point' is, including their own ?

His seeming lack of success at GEMD could be a pattern - or the spur to get things right at ZIOC.

A single 'point of failure' is always a concern, so the arrival of Cutifani (and his track record/the conduct I referred to) gives some added support to my position, I feel.

ATB

The latest twist...from Guinea's PoV.

Silla seems to be a bit of a bull in the China shop.

Whether realistic or not remains to be seen.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/guinea-aims-for-global-high-grade-iron-ore-leverage-with-simandou-launch

.."Guinea is seeking to keep global prices for premium iron ore high.....

.."That may put it at odds with the mine's main owner and customer, China, which consumes more than 70% of the steelmaking material globally, and has moved to centralize imports and drive down prices....

..""Our main interest is to keep prices high," Guinea's Minister of Mines Bouna Sylla said in the capital Conakry. He gave no details, but said Conakry will tap Rio Tinto's expertise.[ Ed.: a bit of a poisoned chalice, that]

.."Sylla said Guinea wants to bypass China and sell its [15% entitlement] Simandou high-grade iron ore directly to Europe and the Middle East.

.."With Guinea due to receive 15% of total output from each of Simandou’s two mining blocks, it will have rare leverage in the emerging market for green steel dominated by Australia and Brazil, said Erik Hedborg, head of raw steel materials at metals consultancy CRU Group.

That will also put Rio Tinto — which operates blocks 3 and 4 — in direct competition with Brazil’s Vale.

"In Australia, they don't have the premium. That gives Rio the opportunity to sell both Pilbara 62-grade and Simandou’s premium ore - not just to China, but to European steel mills and maybe the Middle East - for green steel," Sylla said.

GLA

And more coverage/'flavour'..

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/rio-tinto-puts-2-4-billion-serbian-lithium-project-on-hold-as-new-ceo-reshapes-priorities/ar-AA1QmPQS?ocid=msedgn

.."An internal memo reviewed by The Wall Street Journal confirmed that the company will shift the project into “care and maintenance,” saying the move is part of Rio Tinto’s effort to “simplify and PRIORITIZE NEAR TERM OPPORTUNITIES.”

The memo emphasized that Rio Tinto still considers Jadar a valuable long-term asset with meaningful potential for both Serbia and Europe, but added that the “lack of progress in permitting” means the company is “not in a position to sustain the same level of spend and resource allocation.”

The pause fits with Trott’s early direction since taking the helm in August, as he aims to streamline the miner’s portfolio, reduce costs, and limit distractions WHILE FOCUSSING ON PROJECTS THAT CAN DELIVER RESULTS MORE QUICKLY..."

GLA

Https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/the-congo-river-africa-s-powerhouse-explained/vi-AA1OTJz4?ocid=socialshare

GLA

Trott's moving quickly to make his mark... (cf the 'first hundred days' rule):

https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/rio-tinto-puts-serbian-lithium-on-the-back-burner-20251113-p5nf4r

.."Rio ends two-decade Serbian lithium mining dream as cost cuts bite

Rio Tinto will stop working on the development of a lithium mine in Serbia TWO DECADES after first discovering a deposit on the site, with the Jadar project set to fall victim to the cost-cutting and restructure being pursued by the resources giant’s new chief executive Simon Trott.

The lithium and borates deposit in the Jadar Valley was discovered by Rio in 2004 and in 2021 announced PLANS TO SPEND $US2.4 billion ($3.7 billion) building Europe’s biggest lithium mine.

Many at the company considered the proposal one of former chief executive Jakob Stausholm’s PET PROJECTS."

and this bit may reflect his attitude:

.."Trott hinted last month that Rio’s lithium options would not be developed simultaneously and therefore some, like Jadar, would be deprioritised.

“One of the really good things about having options, and we’ve got lots of options IN THE LITHIUM SPACE, is that the bar is really high, and so we can look at those projects and progress the very best of them,” he told investors at a Goldman Sachs event in London last month. "

Finally

.."Trott will update investors with his first major strategy presentation as chief executive on December 4..."

Timeous?

GLA

Trott's moving quickly to make his mark... (cf the 'first hundred days' rule):

https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/rio-tinto-puts-serbian-lithium-on-the-back-burner-20251113-p5nf4r

.."Rio ends two-decade Serbian lithium mining dream as cost cuts bite

Rio Tinto will stop working on the development of a lithium mine in Serbia TWO DECADES after first discovering a deposit on the site, with the Jadar project set to fall victim to the cost-cutting and restructure being pursued by the resources giant’s new chief executive Simon Trott.

The lithium and borates deposit in the Jadar Valley was discovered by Rio in 2004 and in 2021 announced PLANS TO SPEND $US2.4 billion ($3.7 billion) building Europe’s biggest lithium mine.

Many at the company considered the proposal one of former chief executive Jakob Stausholm’s PET PROJECTS."

and this bit may reflect his attitude:

.."Trott hinted last month that Rio’s lithium options would not be developed simultaneously and therefore some, like Jadar, would be deprioritised.

“One of the really good things about having options, and we’ve got lots of options IN THE LITHIUM SPACE, is that the bar is really high, and so we can look at those projects and progress the very best of them,” he told investors at a Goldman Sachs event in London last month. "

Finally

.."Trott will update investors with his first major strategy presentation as chief executive on December 4..."

Timeous?

GLA

.."Neither Catbert nor extrader address every shareholder's worry about the company being taken private at a pittance. "

Can't speak for Catbert, but for me'sen

'Perhaps I can be of assistance?'

https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Rising_Sun_(film)

A legitimate concern, I think it's covered by the presence/active involvement of Cutifani and Elphick.

(1) I've commented previously re Elphick, his social standing in S Africa and his sensitivity re his 'good name'.

(2) Cutifani is IMO another 'safe pair of hands' : that was his role when appointed to Vale to shepherd the Base Metals divestment/IPO process, see

https://www.ft.com/content/7d7319d6-45b5-409e-ac2b-f0e02a97526d

.."Cutifani helped to hire VBM’s chief executive Shaun Usmar and the rest of the executive team during his time as chair. He said his tenure had always been planned to last two or three years, to improve productivity and get the company ready for a potential IPO.

“Shaun is in place and has already done good things and so he doesn’t need me looking over his shoulder,” Cutifani said in an email to the Financial Times.

“When the leadership steps up, [it is] time for the foundation builders to step back and give them the room to create their own future. I’m thrilled we got there so quickly,” he added.

Cutifani said Pimenta was taking the role of chair because he will be the person to make the final decision on whether to list VBM. “In that context, we both agreed it was time to step out and let the team keep driving the evolution,” he added.

He added that he would be pursuing OTHER projects including at Odin Financial, a boutique investment bank."

Footnote: Cutifani stepped down in July 2025, following a 25 June 2025 announcement.

That was the same day that ZIOC issued its DRI Product Quality RNS.....which immediately made explicit the potential for a conflict of interests.

You can understand his (or maybe the FT 's) reticence about not mentioning his recent dabble in ZIOC.

And on Total, his Board profile includes

"Independent director.

Chairman of the Compensation Committee and member of the Governance and Ethics Committee.

Main function: Director and Executive Business Advisor'"...

HTH and ATB

Hi Catbert,

Quite!

(1) "..Based on typical factors, the Congo option could be cheaper on a per-tonne basis if offshore gas is low-cost, domestically available, and project capital is optimized for local gas utilization..."

It should be!

C-B has just become an LNG exporter, including some of its previously flared (=unmonetised) byproduct gas. This is in JV with ENI, but Total Energy is also active in-country, see

https://totalenergies.com/congo

New investor Cutifani will be aware of C-B's potential, he's on the Total Board until May 2026, see https://totalenergies.com/company/identity/governance/board-of-directors

(2) .."Not to mention that the ore at Simandou isn't yet verified as being suited to DRI..."

It almost certainly isn't, as commented elsewhere.....

This IEEFA report (albeit dated), addresses the issue pretty thoroughly, with some impressive graphics covering the gangue * issue also...

https://ieefa.org/sites/default/files/2022-06/IEEFA_IRON_ORE_REPORT_JUNE2022%20%281%29.pdf

Snippet:

.."The big four iron ore producers – Rio Tinto, BHP, Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) and Vale remain largely focused on producing blast furnace-grade ore......

....Rio is committed to its Simandou project in Guinea. Although this will produce high-grade iron ore, IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE GREAT MAJORITY OF OUTPUT WILL BE BLAST-FURNACE GRADE...."

ATB

This IEEFA report (albeit dated), addresses the issue pretty thoroughly, with some impressive graphics covering the gangue * issue also...

https://ieefa.org/sites/default/files/2022-06/IEEFA_IRON_ORE_REPORT_JUNE2022%20%281%29.pdf

.."Outlook of Major Iron Ore Producers

The big four iron ore producers – Rio Tinto, BHP, Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) and Vale remain largely focused on producing blast furnace-grade ore.

Neither BHP or Rio Tinto have a measurable target to reduce total Scope 3 carbon emissions that occur when its customers use its iron ore and metallurgical coal in steelmaking processes.

Rio is committed to its Simandou project in Guinea. Although this will produce high-grade iron ore, it seems likely that the great majority of output will be blast furnace-grade.

Vale forecasts that, although there will be a shift towards higher quality iron ore over the rest of this decade, there will be no change in the proportion of seaborne iron ore supply over 66% Fe by 2030, remaining at just 3% of the total as it was in 2020.

FMG is committed to developing its magnetite ore reserves at its Iron Bridge project. The project will produce 22MT per annum of high-grade, 67% Fe magnetite concentrate, with the first output scheduled for December 2022. However, FMG has suggested this may be blended with lower-grade ores to produce an improved blast furnace-grade product.."

* Look at the majors' average gangue content (= %age of Si02 + Al203) and compare with ZIOC's.

From Aug 2025 Product Enhancement presentation, p 8:

Product %Fe %Si2O3 %Al2O3

Hematite (Stage 1) 68.5 1.05 0.47 = combined 1.52%

Magnetite (Stage 2) 69.1 1.96 0.40 = combined 2.36%

Min. Spec. DRI Qual ≥67

Https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/guinea-to-fast-track-alumina-iron-ore-processing-mines-minister-says/

.."GUINEA ALSO TARGETS IRON ORE PROCESSING

Beyond alumina, Sylla said Guinea is pushing for domestic processing of iron ore.

Current agreements require Rio Tinto and Winning Consortium Simandou, who are jointly developing the Simandou deposit, to study and build a 500,000-ton steel plant or a 2 million-ton pellet facility, Sylla said.

The partners must submit feasibility studies for a steel mill or pellet plant WITHIN 2 YEARS of first exports, said Djiba Diakite, chief of staff to the president.

If they fail, Guinea can hire a top global firm at the expense of Compagnie du Transguineen — the joint venture managing Simandou’s rail and port services — for the study.

"We believe we have identified the minimum capacities to design (this facility) based on sound economic principles," Sylla said.

Rio Tinto's Simfer venture, which operates part of the Simandou project, has a commitment for a feasibility study on a pellet plant to help understand the viability and options available, a Rio Tinto spokesperson told Reuters on Monday.

WCS did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Guinea's proximity to Europe and the U.S. gives it A LOGISTICS EDGE over Middle Eastern hubs, Sylla said, adding that producing pellets and DRI for green steel are the preferred path.

Energy remains the biggest hurdle, Sylla admitted, but said Guinea is courting hydro, solar and liquefied natural gas investments, including A US-BACKED PLAN TO IMPORT LNG for power plants...."

Worth noting : Guinea timetable.....and RioTinto temporising / WCS remaining silent; its logistic advantage > US and Europe; and potential US involvement on power front.

GLA

Https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/guinea-to-fast-track-alumina-iron-ore-processing-mines-minister-says/

.."GUINEA ALSO TARGETS IRON ORE PROCESSING

Beyond alumina, Sylla said Guinea is pushing for domestic processing of iron ore.

Current agreements require Rio Tinto and Winning Consortium Simandou, who are jointly developing the Simandou deposit, to study and build a 500,000-ton steel plant or a 2 million-ton pellet facility, Sylla said.

The partners must submit feasibility studies for a steel mill or pellet plant WITHIN 2 YEARS of first exports, said Djiba Diakite, chief of staff to the president.

If they fail, Guinea can hire a top global firm at the expense of Compagnie du Transguineen — the joint venture managing Simandou’s rail and port services — for the study.

"We believe we have identified the minimum capacities to design (this facility) based on sound economic principles," Sylla said.

Rio Tinto's Simfer venture, which operates part of the Simandou project, has a commitment for a feasibility study on a pellet plant to help understand the viability and options available, a Rio Tinto spokesperson told Reuters on Monday.

WCS did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Guinea's proximity to Europe and the U.S. gives it A LOGISTICS EDGE over Middle Eastern hubs, Sylla said, adding that producing pellets and DRI for green steel are the preferred path.

Energy remains the biggest hurdle, Sylla admitted, but said Guinea is courting hydro, solar and liquefied natural gas investments, including A US-BACKED PLAN TO IMPORT LNG for power plants...."

Worth noting : Guinea timetable; its logistic advantage > US and Europe; and potential US involvement on power front.

GLA

Hi Catbert,

Not sure how much to read into HiVis jackets, which - even in the UK - seem primarily to confer a sense of ' serious team' and 'spurious authority'.

The Nov 2023 Presentation p 16 presentation is 50% HiVis kitted, including some with what appear to be the same flashy blue overalls.

The caption there reads: Hydro Power solutions

Multiple major Chinese hydro power developers engaged, and numerous sites identified (image below: July 2023 hydro power developer site visit)

FWLIW

The same page, talking about slurry pipeline advantages, has this to say :

" Pipeline

Zanaga is the only West African miner with pipeline infrastructure plans, giving it a significant cost advantage

* Major iron ore assets utilising slurry pipeline transportation solutions‒ 366km pipeline to transport pellet feed from mine site to port at Pointe-Noire, with only one intermediate pump station req’d

* Zanaga‒ Stage One 20” Pipeline / Stage Two 24” Pipeline‒ Maximum pipeline gradient 12%

Single central government approval - contrast to Brazil, WHERE NEGOTIATIONS WITH NUMEROUS PRIVATE LANDOWNERS REQUIRED

Less-volatile terrain than Brazil, requiring fewer pump stations."

The bit in caps + the lower central image of Florent pointing out features on a map, with text talking of distances - taken together - makes me wonder/hope that this may be about getting local village headman buy-in (or sell out?) to a pipeline crossing 'their' traditional areas....

Like you, I doubt we'll be told.

ATB

Https://www.financialcontent.com/article/marketminute-2025-11-10-guineas-simandou-project-a-23-billion-iron-ore-revolution-poised-to-reshape-global-markets

Winners:

Chinese Steelmakers: Companies like (Baowu Steel Group) and other major Chinese steel producers stand to be significant beneficiaries. Simandou offers a diversified, high-grade iron ore supply, reducing China's historical reliance on Australian and Brazilian sources. This strategic diversification enhances supply security and gives Chinese entities greater leverage in global commodity pricing, aligning with Beijing's long-term goals for resource independence.

The high iron content (65% Fe+) is also ideal for reducing emissions in steel production, a key objective for China's environmental targets.

Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO): Despite the competitive landscape, Rio Tinto, as a major stakeholder in the Simfer JV, is poised to gain from its substantial investment. The project provides Rio Tinto with a new, world-class asset that will contribute significantly to its iron ore portfolio. While the overall market might face price pressure, Rio Tinto's participation ensures it remains a key player in the high-grade segment, catering to the growing demand for premium ores suitable for green steel initiatives.

Guinea: The Guinean government, with its 15% free-carry equity stake in both the mining consortia and the infrastructure joint venture, is a direct beneficiary. The project promises to be a transformative force for the nation, generating substantial tax revenues, creating thousands of jobs, and significantly boosting GDP.

Losers

Existing High-Cost, Lower-Grade Iron Ore Producers: The most vulnerable players are those operating higher-cost mines producing lower-grade iron ore. The massive influx of high-grade Simandou ore is expected to drive down overall iron ore prices. This will squeeze profit margins for less efficient producers, particularly those in Australia's Pilbara region (hence the "Pilbara killer" moniker) and Brazil, who rely on scale but may not match Simandou's quality or cost structure in a bearish market.

Companies like (BHP Group) (ASX: BHP) and (Fortescue Metals Group) (ASX: FMG), while robust, will face intensified competition and potential downward pressure on their average realized prices..."

Catalyst for Green Steel Production: The exceptionally high-grade nature of Simandou ore (over 65% Fe) makes it a game-changer for the burgeoning green steel movement. High-grade ore requires less energy in blast furnaces, directly contributing to lower carbon emissions. Furthermore, Simandou ore is particularly well-suited for Direct Reduction (DR) iron production, a key pathway for producing low-carbon steel. This aligns perfectly with global environmental targets and the increasing demand from industries for sustainably produced materials, making Simandou a crucial enabler for the steel industry's decarbonization journey..."

'High grade' is the mot du jour.

Another 2.6m bought 14 mins after the 9m...

Trott's reported comments don't sound like Rio's thinking of exiting Simandou:

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20251111830386/en/Simandou-partners-celebrate-start-of-operations

Rio Tinto Chief Executive Simon Trott said: “This outstanding achievement has been made possible through the dedicated hard work of thousands of our colleagues, and the complementary strengths and expertise of Rio Tinto, our SimFer partners, the Government of Guinea and Winning Consortium Simandou.

“Today we are unlocking an exceptional new source of high-grade iron ore that is in demand from customers for low-carbon steel making, enhancing our world-class portfolio of iron ore mines in the Pilbara and Canada.”

Maybe he's just playing politics, esp. if Guinea pushes for its pelletisation plant:

.."Ministers say they will insist that Simandou’s investors build a pelletisation plant to turn ore into higher-value pellets — a step towards Guinea’s ultimate goal of producing steel.

For its part, Rio says it is committed to a feasibility study on the pelletisation plant, but not necessarily to building a factory, a potential source of friction in the years ahead..."

Watch this (or, that) space...

GLA

Big Den will particularly like this bit, ex FT

"How the world’s biggest mining project is a win for China"

.."Perhaps more than any single person, today’s grand opening owes its existence to General Mamadi Doumbouya, then a 36-year-old colonel who seized power in Guinea in 2021 after his elected predecessor overstayed his constitutional term.

Doumbouya has tied the reputation of his presidency, which he is seeking to legitimise in elections next month, to the successful completion of Simandou.

In Conakry, the seaside capital now dotted with tanks, there are huge pictures of the president in crisp military uniform, often near posters proclaiming Simandou 2040. Slogans link the mine’s success to the president’s vision. One reads: “To lead is to build.”

Sylla, the mining minister, says it took Doumbouya’s vision to force Rio and its Chinese partners to SHARE the massive costs of the railway and port, rather than doubling up.

“The president is a soldier and in terms of strategy, the best training is the military,” he says.

It was Doumbouya who set the punishing timetable culminating in today’s inauguration — more of a soft launch — conveniently timed just a few weeks before the election.

Doumbouya, who moulds himself after Paul Kagame, Rwanda’s effective if authoritarian leader, had other stipulations for investors. He insisted that Guinea get a 15 per cent stake, not only in the mine itself, but also in the logistics company that runs the railway and port.

Investors strongly resisted. In one tense, late-night meeting, a Guinean lawyer was instructed to slam the door on their way out as a sign of Guinea’s resolve.

Bouna Sylla, Guinea’s mining minister, says the project envisages spurring investment of $200bn in roads, refineries, industrial parks, schools and agriculture for the country .

The president also stipulated that Simandou purchase American locomotives to run on Chinese rails. When WCS tried to take delivery of Chinese locomotives, Guinea had them shipped back.

Wabtec of the US ended up winning the contract with locomotives manufactured in India. Alstom of France is doing the signalling. “It’s like the United Nations,” says one official, with another describing the balance of countries as a GEOPOLITICAL HEDGING STRATEGY.

Chris Aitchison, managing director of SimFer, the Rio-Chinalco consortium working on Simandou, praises Doumbouya for FORCING THE RIVAL INDUSTRIAL PARTNERS TO CO-OPERATE ON INFRASTRUCTURE. “If you wanted Simandou to come alive, we all had to do things differently,” he says.

"If prices do decline that much, it will take significantly longer for Rio, Chinalco, Baowu and Winning to recoup their enormous capital costs. Guinean ministers are already strategising about HOW TO COUNTER what they predict will be Chinese efforts to suppress prices....

There is a structural move to decarbonise, and one of the ways we can do that is to use higher-grade ore, that’s