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Good article, thanks!

.."The changes made by Trott may have been well received, but they can probably be described as hedge-trimming, not major structural change."

To be clear, all the references to doing more than hedge-trimming are made by the authors of the article, not by Cutifani, as the subtitle makes clear:

.."The commodities giant’s new chief executive doesn’t want to merely trim the hedges. But can he renovate a miner that’s avoided major change for a decade?"

leading to the wrap-up conclusion that you quote at the end.

Your subsequent link to an RBS suggestion of ramp-up delays at Simandou, made explicit in Catbert's post show that a strategic review and possible asset switch is both urgent and important.

I've previously wondered whether the AFR is privy to the review conclusion, has been brought 'inside' and is preparing the market for some major surprises.

Not long to wait to find out!

GLA

Hi Catbert,

I've been writing to various journos, could you provide a link to this article pls?

Cheers

Oh, look:

https://www.ft.com/content/86e973c8-6254-4027-9572-5a9fb59b85e8?segmentId=3f81fe28-ba5d-8a93-616e-4859191fabd8

Trump is driving Africa to ‘look inwards’ for growth, trade bank says

New president says Afreximbank plans a big push to finance processing facilities for raw commodities.

.."“Trump is turning out well for Africa, even if it’s unconscious,” said George Elombi, a Cameroonian ex-lawyer who took over as president of Cairo-based Afreximbank last month.

“He’s making Africans look inwards, so they have to deal with their own issues,” said Elombi.

He would also prioritise financing processing facilities for raw commodities, so African countries retain more value — and jobs — from their resources while capitalising on renewed global interest in the continent’s mineral deposits. South Africa has a developed processing industry, but much of the rest of the continent’s metals are processed abroad, especially in China.

“Our balance sheet is big enough for us to transform certain sectors overnight,” Elombi said. “As soon as we start and it is looking promising, then you have other investors wishing to join us,” he said...."

.."the bank has also attracted criticism for behaving like a development bank while charging the rates of a commercial one. It also enjoys “preferred creditor treatment” underpinned by a founding treaty that was intended to protect the bank’s lending in particular during financial crises.

“It is unfair on the likes of the African Development Bank if on top of the commercial margins they enjoy on their lending they are also awarded preferred creditor status,” said Bright Simons, vice-president at the IMANI think-tank in Ghana. .."

All very timely, AFAICS.

GLA

Oh, look:

https://www.ft.com/content/86e973c8-6254-4027-9572-5a9fb59b85e8?segmentId=3f81fe28-ba5d-8a93-616e-4859191fabd8

Trump is driving Africa to ‘look inwards’ for growth, trade bank says

New president says Afreximbank plans a big push to finance processing facilities for raw commodities.

.."“Trump is turning out well for Africa, even if it’s unconscious,” said George Elombi, a Cameroonian ex-lawyer who took over as president of Cairo-based Afreximbank last month.

“He’s making Africans look inwards, so they have to deal with their own issues,” said Elombi.

He would also prioritise financing processing facilities for raw commodities, so African countries retain more value — and jobs — from their resources while capitalising on renewed global interest in the continent’s mineral deposits. South Africa has a developed processing industry, but much of the rest of the continent’s metals are processed abroad, especially in China.

“Our balance sheet is big enough for us to transform certain sectors overnight,” Elombi said. “As soon as we start and it is looking promising, then you have other investors wishing to join us,” he said...."

.."the bank has also attracted criticism for behaving like a development bank while charging the rates of a commercial one. It also enjoys “preferred creditor treatment” underpinned by a founding treaty that was intended to protect the bank’s lending in particular during financial crises.

“It is unfair on the likes of the African Development Bank if on top of the commercial margins they enjoy on their lending they are also awarded preferred creditor status,” said Bright Simons, vice-president at the IMANI think-tank in Ghana. .."

All very timely, AFAICS.

GLA

Hi Catbert,

Thanks for Https://api.investi.com.au/api/announcements/cle/6f8e886b-bba.pdf

On a quick skim, I see that costings p.11 refer to CFR rates TO GCC ...which would presumably be VALE's plan for supplying its various 'green steel' plants in Oman, Saudi and (?) the UAE.

For historic reasons (cf Simandou clash) it already seems unlikely that VALE would be getting into bed with Rio on any (speculated) ZIOC deal, but - with Cyclone as a fall-back - it may want to EXCLUDE Rio from ZIOC by getting into (a second) bed with Ma'aden, for a consortium bid.

This would potentially set the stage for some kind of competitive bidding for ZIOC that everyone's hoping for.

At least from my (self-interested) perspective ;->

What do you (and others) think?

Have a great weekend!

GLA

Hi Catbert,

Thanks for this!

On a quick skim, I see that costings p.11 refer to CFR rates TO GCC ...which would presumably be VALE's plan for supplying its various 'green steel' plants in Oman, Saudi and (?) the UAE.

For historic reasons (cf Simandou clash) it already seems unlikely that VALE would be getting into bed with Rio on any (speculated) ZIOC deal, but - with Cyclone as a fall-back- it may want to EXCLUDE Rio from ZIOC by getting into (a second) bed with Ma'aden.

This would potentially set the stage for some kind of competitive bidding for ZIOC that everyone's hoping for.

At least from my (self-interested) perspective ;->

What do you (and others) think?

Have a great weekend!

GLA

Hi 99icecream,

Thanks for the feedback!

9m DRI grade out of 25 seems respectable...esp if the BSL technology that has just been announced helps boost the mix. As I said, I'm not a metallurgist ;->

I was looking at it as being perhaps reducing Vale's potential interest in Zanaga - (a) it seems fairly well placed for DRI grade on its own already and (b) Cyclone may be less challenging/controversial.

I'm much more interested in the A2MP angle, in possible connection with ZIOC, frankly.

The continued 'radio silence' from the Co is a bit irritating too, whilst I'm at it...;->

GLA

From Semafor Gulf

.."Qatar plans a new data route

Qatar is planning a new overland data-cable corridor to Europe, joining regional efforts to find alternatives to the Red Sea’s vulnerable subsea routes. The country’s biggest telecom company Ooredoo will invest more than $500 million in fiber running from Oman through Iraq and Türkiye into Europe, a path it says will deliver faster connections.

The Gulf’s artificial intelligence ambitions are driving such infrastructure spending. Saudi Arabia and Syria are in talks on a separate $500 million link that would connect the kingdom to Europe. That project will help turn Saudi data centers into regional compute hubs, offering redundancy to the vulnerable Red Sea chokepoint that dominates global internet flows..."

The accompanying map shows the scale of global interconnectivity:

hTTps://www.submarinecablemap.com/?utm_source=semafor

GLA

.."However I found something very specific..."

Hi MM,

Someone has to say it.

It seems that you're flogging a dead horse, I'm afraid.

People evidently don't know the answer to your riddled question - the smoking gun that is somehow still loaded- or don't care.

If I find something potentially of interest/relevance, I usually share it first on these boards and then - if it really seems material to me - by writing to relevant journalists, companies and similar, as I've done on half a dozen occasions in the last few weeks.

That may also eventually turn out to be a fruitless exercise, but it has to be more productive than just teasing the few 'already converted' that inhabit these boards.

Just a thought.

This seems to address Vale's green steel ambitions, albeit further down the road than Zanaga might:

https://discoveryalert.com.au/magnetite-marvel-iron-bear-low-carbon-steelmaking/

..."The newly completed scoping study showcases Iron Bear's extraordinary fundamentals: a colossal 16.66 billion tonne resource at 29.3% iron, highly favourable economics with a $4.6 billion pre-production capex, and a projected 18-year mine life utilising less than 9% of the total resource. The project is designed to produce 25 million tonnes annually of premium high-grade iron products – a combination of 16 million tonnes of blast furnace concentrate and 9 million tonnes of direct reduction pellets.

What truly distinguishes Iron Bear is the exceptional quality of its products. Extensive metallurgical testing demonstrates the project can produce blast furnace concentrates grading 69.8% iron with 3.4% silica and direct reduction concentrates grading 71.0% iron with just 1.1% silica. These specifications place Iron Bear's products at the absolute premium end of the global iron ore market, positioning the company to capture significant price premiums as steelmakers worldwide transition toward lower-carbon production methods.

"The Iron Bear Scoping Study highlights an extraordinary opportunity to develop a sustainable and low-cost iron ore mining and processing operation in a first-world mining jurisdiction," said Paul Berend, Cyclone's CEO and Managing Director...."

One to watch, maybe.

GLA

This seems to address Vale's green steel ambitions, albeit further down the road than Zanaga might:

https://discoveryalert.com.au/magnetite-marvel-iron-bear-low-carbon-steelmaking/

The newly completed scoping study showcases Iron Bear's extraordinary fundamentals: a colossal 16.66 billion tonne resource at 29.3% iron, highly favourable economics with a $4.6 billion pre-production capex, and a projected 18-year mine life utilising less than 9% of the total resource. The project is designed to produce 25 million tonnes annually of premium high-grade iron products – a combination of 16 million tonnes of blast furnace concentrate and 9 million tonnes of direct reduction pellets.

What truly distinguishes Iron Bear is the exceptional quality of its products. Extensive metallurgical testing demonstrates the project can produce blast furnace concentrates grading 69.8% iron with 3.4% silica and direct reduction concentrates grading 71.0% iron with just 1.1% silica. These specifications place Iron Bear's products at the absolute premium end of the global iron ore market, positioning the company to capture significant price premiums as steelmakers worldwide transition toward lower-carbon production methods.

"The Iron Bear Scoping Study highlights an extraordinary opportunity to develop a sustainable and low-cost iron ore mining and processing operation in a first-world mining jurisdiction," said Paul Berend, Cyclone's CEO and Managing Director.

One to watch, maybe.

GLA

.."it is a difficult location requiring significant infrastructure to get product mined, extracted, beneficiated and transported to market..."

You obviously didn't read - or perhaps, understand ? - or perhaps remember? the comments from yesterday around Gupta's mining and mining assets investment vehicle.

.."And A2MP is clearly willing to make sizeable commitments in 'difficult' countries, including " a game-changing $29 million in fresh capital corner-stoned by veteran African resource financier Eagle Eye Asset Holdings and an eye-popping US$160M (A$250M) debt facility"

https://www.bullsnbears.com.au/post/toubani-resources-nabs-29m-in-new-cash-and-250m-debt-deal-for-mali-gold-play

with some interesting read-across:.."Toubani...has a market capitalisation of $60.67 million also raised $29 million through a two-tranche placement ..A2MP will have an 18 % stake and the support of Afreximbank's US40 Billion balance sheet"

Spelling it out, for the hard of hearing : Gupta -an Africa expert- and Afreximbank- an Africa expert- are happy to back a 'less project-ready' company with equiv. ZIOC's current market cap, in Mali (which makes headlines for all the wrong reasons).

It seems to me that you're either intellectually challenged or intellectually dishonest.

Tough call.

The co has no intention of self-developing.

As posted previously

.."It’s also worth noting the project’s backers are private equity AND WILL BE MINDFUL OF AN EXIT. “We’re value-driven,” says Trahar. “As a company, we have to be focused on value rather than the emotion of chasing operational status for the project.”.."

HTH

Good find!

Your quote didn't include this bit:

.."BSL will continue to work with our leading industry partners to further develop this product and identify opportunities where it can be APPLIED FOR DIRECT REDUCTION IRON making AS WELL AS blast furnace applications."

To the extent that BSL were successful in so doing, that would presumably eat into ZIOC's addressable market, n'est-ce pas?

Coincidentally, I wrote to CoTec Holdings last week, seeking an explanation for the oddity that CEO Treger still has 'significant influence or control', despite CoTec's modest 3% shareholding.

I'd previously theorised/assumed that BSL's largest shareholder, the mysterious Concord Atlantic (Bermuda) - 23% - was industry or insiders (Western), what if 's a 'front' company for Chinese eg PSEI interests?

I'll go back using this news as a pretext and rattle the cages a bit more.

GLA

...and some more flavour here

https://www.forbesafrica.com/ceo-strategies/2024/12/21/gabon-to-africa-build-it-and-people-will-come

From a business/investment PoV, he seems to 'walk the walk' on productive ESG - I'm sure Marty would approve.

From a personal PoV, I like that he's a runner....and sponsors marathons.

GLA

...and here

https://www.forbesafrica.com/ceo-strategies/2024/12/21/gabon-to-africa-build-it-and-people-will-come

From a business/investment PoV, he seems to 'walk the walk' on productive ESG - I'm sure Marty would approve.

From a personal PoV, I like that he's a runner....and sponsors marathons.

GLA

A bit more flavour here:

https://launchbaseafrica.com/2025/11/12/afreximbank-doubles-down-on-gagan-gupta-spiro-founder-bags-new-300m-for-minerals-platform-a2mp/

.."The Gagan Gupta Connection

A notable, and crucial, detail is the man behind A2MP: founder Gagan Gupta.

This name will be familiar to FEDA watchers. Gupta is also the founder of Spiro, the electric motorcycle and battery-swapping company that recently secured a $75m commitment from FEDA to scale its operations across Africa.

This $300m investment in A2MP reveals a deeper pattern: Afreximbank isn’t just making isolated bets; it appears to be backing a specific entrepreneur’s ambitious, large-scale vision for African industrialisation.

Where Spiro aims to build a new energy distribution network for mobility, A2MP aims to build the industrial backbone for Africa’s natural resources. Both ventures are highly capital-intensive, complex, and operate across multiple countries.

“This strategic investment allows us to scale our fully integrated model of responsible extraction, processing, and transformation,” said Gupta. “Our ambition is to make A2MP the backbone of the continent’s next industrial revolution.”

A2MP Investments was incorporated in Dubai (DMCC) in 2024, the same year as Minetech Investments, the C-B silicon venture.

And -wait! there's more - another would-be silicon processor, in Oman, Green Ferro Alloy (FZC) LLC, (coincidence?) is establishing a first-of-its-kind silicon metals production plant at SOHAR Port and Freezone.... https://www.omanobserver.om/article/1164219/business/economy/investoman-highlights-value-add-potential-of-new-silicon-metal-project

Its plant will be located adjacent to Sohar Steel Company and Jindal Steel Company....presumably they anticipate synergies with both ? Discl.: I am not a metallurgist.

Apparently, silicon improves ductility in pig iron and is used in deoxidizing steel.

More hmmmm....

GLA

A bit more flavour here:

https://launchbaseafrica.com/2025/11/12/afreximbank-doubles-down-on-gagan-gupta-spiro-founder-bags-new-300m-for-minerals-platform-a2mp/

.."The Gagan Gupta Connection

A notable, and crucial, detail is the man behind A2MP: founder Gagan Gupta.

This name will be familiar to FEDA watchers. Gupta is also the founder of Spiro, the electric motorcycle and battery-swapping company that recently secured a $75m commitment from FEDA to scale its operations across Africa.

This $300m investment in A2MP reveals a deeper pattern: Afreximbank isn’t just making isolated bets; it appears to be backing a specific entrepreneur’s ambitious, large-scale vision for African industrialisation.

Where Spiro aims to build a new energy distribution network for mobility, A2MP aims to build the industrial backbone for Africa’s natural resources. Both ventures are highly capital-intensive, complex, and operate across multiple countries.

“This strategic investment allows us to scale our fully integrated model of responsible extraction, processing, and transformation,” said Gupta. “Our ambition is to make A2MP the backbone of the continent’s next industrial revolution.”

A2MP Investments was incorporated in Dubai (DMCC) in 2024, the same year as Minetech Investments, the C-B silicon venture.

And -wait! there's more - another would-be silicon processor, in Oman, Green Ferro Alloy (FZC) LLC, (coincidence?) is establishing a first-of-its-kind silicon metals production plant at SOHAR Port and Freezone.... https://www.omanobserver.om/article/1164219/business/economy/investoman-highlights-value-add-potential-of-new-silicon-metal-project

Its plant will be located adjacent to Sohar Steel Company and Jindal Steel Company....presumably they anticipate synergies with both ? Discl.: I am not a metallurgist.

Apparently, silicon improves ductility in pig iron and is used in deoxidizing steel.

More hmmmm....

GLA

...may be more extensive than we (certainly I) thought:

https://www.mining.com/web/a2mp-secures-300-million-from-afreximbank-for-african-minerals/

.."A2MP, a minerals processing company controlled by the family of Indian businessman Gagan Gupta, has secured $300 million of funding from a subsidiary of the African Export-Import Bank.

The Dubai-headquartered firm will use the mix of debt and equity from Afreximbank’s Fund for Export Development in Africa (FEDA) to support existing projects and target acquisitions, according to A2MP’s global strategy adviser, Adjou Ait Ben Idir.

https://energycapitalpower.com/feda-announces-300m-investment-in-a2mp/

A2MP has mining interests from Gabon and Cameroon to Mozambique, while owning almost 50% of FG Gold, which is building the Baomahun gold mine in Sierra Leone.

“The idea is to cover the whole value chain from exploration to exploitation to processing to trading,” Ben Idir said. A2MP’s focus is “pan-African and multi-mineral” .

A2MP’s portfolio includes manganese mines and an iron ore project in Gabon, as well as a bauxite venture in Cameroon. One company is already building a ferroalloy smelter in Gabon, while another is studying constructing a refinery in Cameroon that would transform bauxite into alumina..."

A2MP's portfolio is pretty extensive

https://a2mp.com/portfolio/

and includes (1) Gupta's stake in Belinga; (2) a manganese mine in Gabon and (3) plans for a silicon metal processing plant at Gupta's SEZ in Pointe Noire:

.."Minetech Investments is setting up one of the largest metallurgical grade silicon metal plants outside China in the Republic of the Congo. The project is fully integrated, encompassing a quartz mine, plantation for charcoal production, and a smelter for efficient production of silicon metal.

Minetech Investments will set up the project in the special economic zone of the Plateformes Industrielles du Congo (PIC), located about 15 km from Pointe-Noire, the second largest city and main commercial centre in the Republic of the Congo.

The project will be developed in two phases, with 64,000 TPA of high-grade silicon metal production in phase-1 and polysilicon refining and solar PV manufacturing facilities in phase-2."

And A2MP is clearly willing to make sizeable commitments in 'difficult' countries, including " a game-changing $29 million in fresh capital corner-stoned by veteran African resource financier Eagle Eye Asset Holdings and an eye-popping US$160M (A$250M) debt facility"

https://www.bullsnbears.com.au/post/toubani-resources-nabs-29m-in-new-cash-and-250m-debt-deal-for-mali-gold-play

with some interesting read-across:.."Toubani...has a market capitalisation of $60.67 million also raised $29 million through a two-tranche placement ..A2MP will have an 18 % stake and the support of Afreximbank's US40 Billion balance sheet"

Hmmm

GLA

....may be more extensive than we (certainly I) thought:

https://www.mining.com/web/a2mp-secures-300-million-from-afreximbank-for-african-minerals/

.."A2MP, a minerals processing company controlled by the family of Indian businessman Gagan Gupta, has secured $300 million of funding from a subsidiary of the African Export-Import Bank.

The Dubai-headquartered firm will use the mix of debt and equity from Afreximbank’s Fund for Export Development in Africa (FEDA) to support existing projects and target acquisitions, according to A2MP’s global strategy adviser, Adjou Ait Ben Idir.

https://energycapitalpower.com/feda-announces-300m-investment-in-a2mp/

A2MP has mining interests from Gabon and Cameroon to Mozambique, while owning almost 50% of FG Gold, which is building the Baomahun gold mine in Sierra Leone.

“The idea is to cover the whole value chain from exploration to exploitation to processing to trading,” Ben Idir said. A2MP’s focus is “pan-African and multi-mineral” .

A2MP’s portfolio includes manganese mines and an iron ore project in Gabon, as well as a bauxite venture in Cameroon. One company is already building a ferroalloy smelter in Gabon, while another is studying constructing a refinery in Cameroon that would transform bauxite into alumina..."

A2MP's portfolio is pretty extensive

https://a2mp.com/portfolio/

and includes (1) Gupta's stake in Belinga; (2) a manganese mine in Gabon and (3) plans for a silicon metal processing plant at Gupta's SEZ in Pointe Noire:

.."Minetech Investments is setting up one of the largest metallurgical grade silicon metal plants outside China in the Republic of the Congo. The project is fully integrated, encompassing a quartz mine, plantation for charcoal production, and a smelter for efficient production of silicon metal.

Minetech Investments will set up the project in the special economic zone of the Plateformes Industrielles du Congo (PIC), located about 15 km from Pointe-Noire, the second largest city and main commercial centre in the Republic of the Congo.

The project will be developed in two phases, with 64,000 TPA of high-grade silicon metal production in phase-1 and polysilicon refining and solar PV manufacturing facilities in phase-2."

And A2MP is clearly willing to make sizeable commitments in 'difficult' countries, including " a game-changing $29 million in fresh capital corner-stoned by veteran African resource financier Eagle Eye Asset Holdings and an eye-popping US$160M (A$250M) debt facility"

https://www.bullsnbears.com.au/post/toubani-resources-nabs-29m-in-new-cash-and-250m-debt-deal-for-mali-gold-play

with some interesting read-across:.."Toubani...has a market capitalisation of $60.67 million also raised $29 million through a two-tranche placement ..A2MP will have an 18 % stake and the support of Afreximbank's US40 Billion balance sheet"

Hmmm

GLA