Member Info for extrader

Or maybe 'six- seven'.

Whatever.

I believe 'FAFO' is the trending reply, so my kids tell me.

HTH

Meanwhile, Mining Journal helpfully reminds us of the pressures facing RIO...curious timing, especially when its opening premise is admitted speculation...and its conclusion totally banal.

.."Guinea bauxite dispute a warning for Rio Tinto

Simon Trott, Rio Tinto's new chief executive PROBABLY met Pankaj Oswal when they were younger men working in Perth, Australia's mining capital, a shared background which could lead to more recent shared experiences in one of Africa's mining hotspots, Guinea.

Trott's previous role at Rio, head of iron ore, means he knows everything about the company's involvement in the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea which hits another milestone on January 17 when its first cargo lands in China...."

GLA

.." why did they announce they were going to release news on the 6th? "

Because they'd previously said 3 x, most recently on 1st December, that they'd release info 'by end H2 2025'.

ATB

Hi Catbert,

Admirably argued!

My only qualification might be that - in his currently pumped-up mood - the Donald might take exception at anything that suggested Chinese encroachment ...and fire a shot across the bows of any would-be dealmaker.

His son-in-law Boulos has already (allegedly) strong-armed Liberia into 'de-privatising' Arcelor Mittal's railway to the benefit of Canadian American Friedland's Ivanhoe Mines project at Kon Kweni.

And it wouldn't have to be 'kinetic': 'Denial of service' might be enough - I doubt whether China will continue to be able to buy 80% of Venezuela's crude oil, for example.

Closer to home, I could envisage the Donald sending one of 'the boys' around to suggest to a would-be ZIOC strategic 'Nice concession/deal you're hoping to exploit in the US, Mr X' , it would be a pity if the governmental sign-off you need was to be delayed...'

We live in interesting times.

Meanwhile, a pre-attack piece on the then-recovery outlook for Venezuela creditors:

www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuelas-billions-distressed-debt-who-is-line-collect-2025-12-19/

"...The country has been in default since late 2017, when it missed payments on international bonds issued by the government and state oil company PDVSA. Since then, unpaid principal, accumulated interest AND LEGAL CLAIMS TIED TO PAST EXPROPRIATIONS have swollen Venezuela’s total external liabilities far beyond the face value of the original bonds...."

.."The largest share of commercial creditors likely consists of international bondholders, including global emerging-market funds and specialist distressed-debt investors sometimes called vulture funds.

Also on the creditors list is a group of companies awarded compensation through international arbitration after assets were expropriated by the government. U.S. courts have upheld multi-billion-dollar awards to ConocoPhillips and Crystallex among others, turning those claims into debt obligations and allowing creditors to pursue Venezuelan assets to make themselves whole.

A growing pool of court-recognized claimants is competing for recovery from Citgo’s parent company through U.S. legal proceedings. A Delaware court registered about $19 billion in claims for the auction of PDV Holding, Citgo's parent, which far exceeds the estimated value of Citgo's total assets..."

In 2018, the U.S. District Court for the District of Delaware held that PDVSA — and therefore its U.S. subsidiaries including PDV Holding and CITGO — was the ALTER EGO of the Venezuelan state, allowing creditors with claims against the Republic to attach PDVSA‑owned shares of PDV Holding.

Specifically, Judge Leonard P. Stark’s 2018 opinion (Crystallex Int’l Corp. v. Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela) applied the U.S. Supreme Court’s Bancec factors and concluded:

Venezuela exercised extensive control over PDVSA.

PDVSA was used to advance government policy, not operate independently.

PDVSA’s separate corporate form could be disregarded to prevent injustice.

(2) CITGO has 3 refineries in the US and a large network of gas stations, ie lots more external assets than YPF has, so collection remains an/the issue, but the ALTER EGO argument appears to have legs...

GLA

Lots of £200 worth of trades throughout the day, then these at the close:

02-Jan-26 16:23:56 8.00 100,000 Unknown* 7.70 8.18 8,000 O

31-Dec-25 10:34:08 8.7578 300,000 Unknown* 7.70 8.18 26.27k O

31-Dec-25 10:33:22 8.6744 250,000 Unknown* 7.70 8.18 21.69k O

31-Dec-25 08:01:23 9.00 297,684 Unknown* 7.70 8.18 26.79k O

02-Jan-26 16:13:54 7.98 100,000 Unknown* 7.70 8.18 7,980 O

02-Jan-26 16:12:47 7.9791 100,000 Unknown* 7.70 8.18 7,979

Somebody clearly has a view on Tuesday's news...but what?

GLA

.."Trump on Sky tv. Twice he has mentioned that US oil companies were ripped off by Venezuela who expropriated oil and gas assets. Trump says that he wants justice and compensation..."

Maybe Seb Maril or Mr Marroc have a view on possible relevance to BUR/YPF of this demarche ?

Repsol (Spanish) was compensated, the Eshkenazi (Argentine) and Eton Park (Goldman Sachs-connected private equity firm weren't - their stakes largely acquired by Burford (Guernsey-incorporated, albeit with US legal mind and management/ + possibly majority (?) US shareholders).

Trump has no particular love for (opposing) lawyers; he's obv not a fan of Maduro, but seems to be of Milei. Preska seems to favour 'rule of law'. Chinese/Iranian/Russian influence/impact was stronger in Venezuela than Argentina.

I can't see any coherent read-across, myself......and in any case Trump isn't exactly renowned for joined-up/consistent (other than self-interest/self-aggrandisement) thinking....

GLA.

.."AI makes me laugh! Its opinion of ZIOC appears to be largely based on what appears here and on the other board! And we all know both are dominated by two individuals (surely they can't be one and the same but it wouldn't surprise me!)"

Yes!..I too have had my doubts about MM and AT being one and the same

(I've never seen the two of them together in the same place, which is highly suspicious/suggestive).

GLA

Oh! and I've just seen this tweet:

Zanaga Iron Ore Company

@Zanaga_Iron_Ore

·

Jan 1

Wishing you a very Happy New Year. Thank you for your support in 2025."

GLA

The Isle of man investor is/was Keith Everitt, who had about 17m shares, IIRC.

The other investor was Julian Higgins, who had about 14m, again IIRC.

The constant drip-feed trades today - for about £200 at 7.80p a clip , or thereabouts- aren't something I've noticed before, they seem intended to keep the price range-bound.

Bu to what end?

I guess we'll find out soon enough.

GLA

.."The only other real option is one of the legacy large holders selling into liquidity, I know of one where that may be the case..."

Who might that be, if you're at liberty to say?

TIA

Seb's latest

Sebastian Maril

@SebastianMaril

·

36m

🛑 Judge Loretta Preska has approved a briefing schedule on contempt and sanctions against the Republic of Argentina and has set aside March 23 and 24 for an evidentiary hearing. This indicates that the court is seriously considering the allegations against the country, and that a finding of contempt and the imposition of sanctions could occur on those same days or shortly thereafter...."

GLA

.."It's like I had a 6th sense the share price would start performing again - just ahead of 31.12.25.."

Or maybe you DID actually note the timelines explicitly set out in ZIOC's recent communications.

First - Morton's fork. Now - Occam's razor.

Hi all,

A good RNS today, roll on the 6th (and the Three Wise Men bearing gifts : Elphick, MK and AT?)

(1) The RNS refers specifically to 'FEED level design outcomes for the Project's recently announced DRI product and its associated process plant infrastructure.' results', ie ONLY that related to the pelletisation facility. This, due Feb 2026, AFAICS is a discrete study tied to that 'add-on'/value enhancer that PSEI has been working on....and appears to have been budgeted and paid for (per MK).

(2) What HASN'T been budgeted or paid for is the 'full' FEED, which per the last presentation 1 Dec is due for completion in 2027 (p 29) at a cost of $27m ($18m Ph 1 and $9m Ph 2), see p 18. But note that FEED Ph 2 is (i) 'potentially financed by Ph1 cashflows....and (ii) assumes $1Bn equity investment into Ph 1.

(3) So let's be aggressive and say that FEED to investment decision point requires $ 18M now. How to raise that amount and what are the constraints?

(a) No one wants dilution of the order (300m?) suggested - not Elphick; not the new investors; and certainly not us 'umble PI's. Not that our opinion matters (much).

(b If anything (history is our guide), promoters like to cash out/recover investment (ideally) and at least get some 'mark to market' uplift. A lot of PI's (self included) would welcome an opportunity to take some money off the table.

(c) ZIOC would probably like to ease out the PI's, most of the Strategics would probably, also.

(d) Taking money from one potential strategic to finance FEED would give it the inside track and reduce likelihood of others pursuing what they'd conclude was a 'done deal'. Keeping as many parties interested as possible would 'keep folk honest' and mitigate ZIOC dependency risk.

ZIOC (MK) has said that ' we intend on securing initial offerS from investors during Q1 2026'.

One way of achieving this - and fund FEED (which is in everyone's interest) - might be to ask for 'earnest money' from the reportedly 'interested investment parties'.

If there are 3 that's $6m a pop, if 6 (I wish) that'd be $3m a pop.

Offer shares to these investors in a Private Placing @ 60 p a share (perhaps with a 1: 1 warrant attached), so only 30m immediately dilutive, 60m eventually.

That seems an 'each way' bet, being eventually profitable (given Project NPV) even to any 'losing' bidder. It could charge that amount to its R & D budget.

(4) Such a deal (surely something the Equity Capital Markets teams(s) at ZIOC's/new investor consortium could structure ) would address the priorities cited in 3 (a to d) above.

ZIOC's then 900m or so shares with a notional read-across market value of $ 540m would (i) set a 'floor' on expectations and perceptions; and (ii) be something of a 'rolling start' to the goal of raising the competitive tension dynamic.

How else to reach ''transaction terms with a selected strategic investor during Q1 2026"????

GLA

.." I still find that ie 2 message boards on same company, really biarre..."

At last! Something we can agree on.

.."I rest my case, m'lord..."

I think you're on somewhat shaky ground there:

You define the issue(s)

(1) "African Govts re pretty much all saying that ore must be beneficiated in-country"

True. So any prospective investor will factor that in to their assessment of 'must-haves', or -at least- 'highly desirables'.

(2) " And that is what ZIOC is going to have to do if the mine is going to ever get developed."

Also (likely) true.

So why do you overlook the following:

(3) As it happens, ZIOC put in place an MoU (signed mid-Dec 2024) with ARISE IIP, which is "uniquely positioned to host the Zanaga Project's CONCENTRATE HANDLING within the SEZ and develop a mutually beneficial Mineral Export Facility...."

(4) Three weeks later, ZIOC announced an Investor Event for early Feb 2025, which is 'overtaken by events' and postponed to 18 March...at which point Gupta's family office ('Eagle Eye Asset Holdings') subscribed $ 4million for a 9.7% stake in ZIOC, subsequently upsized to 10.03% in the Tranche 2 placement.

(5) Apart from an investment in topco (ZIOC), Gupta is

(i) managing partner of ATIF, a 20% stakeholder alongside Fortescue Metals Group in the currently-stalled Belinga mine (+ its port-related infrastructure, including processing), in neighbouring Gabon; and

(ii) stakeholder in another family office enterprise, A2MP [Africa Minerals and Metals Processing Platform, there's a clue for you], 'a diversified pan-African platform focused on mining and processing. It currently operates a pipeline of 12 mineral assets and four PROCESSING HUBS, spanning nine countries on the continent'.

(iii) A2MP has recently received significant capital backing from Afreximbank/FEDA, see

https://launchbaseafrica.com/2025/11/12/afreximbank-doubles-down-on-gagan-gupta-spiro-founder-bags-new-300m-for-minerals-platform-a2mp/

specifically because A2MP's business model is “built on retaining BENEFICIATION and PROCESSING within the continent, ensuring that the real economic value of Africa’s mineral wealth is captured locally.”

On the face of it, ZIOC appears to have addressed the concerns you raise in as comprehensive a manner as they can, all things considered.

So it looks to me as though you've just not done your homework (which suggests poor research)...or you ARE aware of these mitigants, but have chosen to ignore them (which suggests bad faith).

'Straw man argument' rebutted by Morton's fork?

HNY

.."my New Year wish for 2026 is that MM (especially) and XT (occasionally) stop treating folks on this message board as being clueless..."

Some folk treat as they find.

HNY

Milei wins Argentina Budget approval despite tensions with Macri

Budget bill was Milei’s first major test in Congress since his midterm election victory.

hxxps://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argentina/milei-wins-argentina-budget-approval-despite-tensions-with-macri.phtml

.."Although the bill’s focus is fiscal policy, it also authorises Milei’s administration to issue debt abroad, complying with a law from his predecessor that requires governments to secure congressional approval for foreign bond sales or agreements with the International Monetary Fund. Argentina owes bondholders about US$4.5 billion on Jan. 9, but Economy Minister Luis Caputo recently signalled the government doesn’t intend to sell new bonds abroad in January to refinance part of those payments.

Passing the Budget also puts Argentina’s US$20-billion IMF agreement on sounder footing heading into the new year to anchor Milei’s fiscal surplus....

GLA

Https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/markets/us-miners-develop-dollar18bn-high-grade-iron-ore-project-to-rival-chinas-dollar24bn

U.S. miners develop $1.8bn high-grade iron ore project to rival China’s $24bn Simandou mine in West Africa

..."Africa’s vast mineral wealth is once again at the centre of global power competition, as a newly developed high-grade iron ore deposit in Guinea draws the United States into a direct strategic contest with China over supply chains, infrastructure routes and political influence.

US miners develop new premium iron ore in West Africa, better than China’s $24B Simandou mine

Africa's mineral wealth has sparked global competition, especially in Guinea's iron ore reserves.

The Simandou project has started exporting high-grade ore to China, marking a milestone development.

Kon Kweni project, owned by Ivanhoe Atlantic, aims to supply iron ore to US and allied markets.

African mining sees growing interest from global investors, impacting regional political and economic dynamics.

The rivalry is playing out in south-eastern Guinea, home to some of the world’s richest iron ore reserves, at a time when African governments are seeking to extract greater value from long-delayed mining projects amid rising global demand for steelmaking inputs.

Simandou Ships First Ore to China

Earlier this month, Guinea shipped its first cargo of iron ore from the long-delayed Simandou project, sending about 200,000 tonnes of high-grade ore to China. The shipment marked a milestone for the $US23 billion ($35 billion) Rio Tinto-led project, which is backed by Chinese partners and is the world’s largest mining development..

Kon Kweni Emerges as a Rival Project

Roughly 160 kilometres from Simandou, a new iron ore deposit known as Kon Kweni has been identified in the forested Nimba mountains of south-east Guinea. According to Financial Review, the reserve is operated by the US company Ivanhoe Atlantic.

The project has emerged as a potential alternative to the China-led Simandou mine, which has been central to Beijing’s strategy for securing critical resources across Africa.

Ivanhoe Atlantic, founded by American-Canadian mining billionaire Robert Friedland, has positioned its mine and rail project as a Donald Trump-endorsed alternative to Simandou, pledging to deliver high-grade iron ore into Western supply chains...."

Initially 5mtpa, at about 66-67%...

NED Phil Mitchell will be following, no doubt.

GLA