Member Info for extrader

.."ZIOC is registered in the British Virgin Islands (as featured in Pirates Of The Caribbean) and therefore not subject to the City Code. GLA!"

It has repeatedly stated that it broadly aims to mirror the provisions of the City code.

Elphick has always valued his professional reputation, as have most of the 'grandees' in the new investor group, some of whom at least clearly want/intend to remain active in the market post ZIOC outcome.

Every person has their price, of course, but it's not always (just !) about filthy lucre.

There are plenty of risks to consider, I don't think this is particularly high on the list, myself.

HTH

About 10 to 12 years ago, during Treger's activist investor phase. Swen mentioned it in one of his periodic reviews, as did Akos Varga (?), IIRC.

Happy hunting! Or you can pm me on advfn.

Apols to board for O/T.

An old article, but still relevant, AFAICS

https://lansinginstitute.org/2022/01/13/damage-to-svalsat-cable-proves-russia-further-upping-stakes/

Some helpful graphics. 'Every picture'...., etc

GLA

Hi Catbert,

I must be having a 'senior moment'- posting about FMF and some of its attendees

.."The usual suspects, PIF, Manara, Ma'aden, Worley (link to our KSA investor?); BHP, Rio Tinto (Chair), Vale CEO, Vale Base etc..."

...and then not including the event as a potential opportunity/opportunities for side-talks...with a perfectly innocent 'cover'.

Thanks.

And some dates for the diary:

- Feb 5 or 6: RIO/GLEN - put up or shut up deadline;

- Feb 10: Indaba ZIOC presentation;

- Feb 17: Chinese New Year starts, slowdown to 3 March (Lantern Festival);

- Feb 26: shareholder lock-in expires.

Anything else?

And some dates for the diary:

- Feb 5 or 6: RIO/GLEN - put up or shut up deadline;

- Feb 10: Indaba ZIOC presentation;

- Feb 17: Chinese New Year starts, slowdown to 3 March (Lantern Festival);

- Feb 26:

Argentina: The central bank secured a USD 3.0bn repo with international banks using USD 5.0bn in sovereign bonds as

collateral, to pay USD 4bn in amortisation and coupons to bondholders. Analysts raised the country’s 2026 GDP growth

forecast to 3.5% following the ruling party’s strong midterm election performance, though expectations remain well below

the government’s budget assumptions. Inflation forecasts were revised up slightly to 20.1% after the adoption of a

more flexible FX regime..."

GLA

Two tweets today from ZIOC:

(1) the Indaba RNS message

(2) Zanaga Iron Ore Company

@Zanaga_Iron_Ore

·

5h

"Did you know? The global steel demand of 1.9 billion tonnes per year requires the production of 2.6 billion tonnes of usable iron ore.

Bringing large-scale deposits, such as Zanaga, into production, is a critical step in meeting worldwide demand for steel in construction, infrastructure development and automotive manufacturing."

If you didn't know before, you do now!

Consider this a public service announcement...

GLA

Hi beardozer,

To each his (or her...or their) own!

You flatter me by suggesting that my witterings are counter-productive...we both know (or should know) that they're quite irrelevant to the eventual outcome.

Harva, I think all the extra market attention that ZIOC will be getting as a result of the RIO/GLEN renewed love-in makes shenanigans of the type you fear less, not more likely.

See t'other board for my reasoning.

Roll on Monday!

Hi Rider75,

Thanks for this background.

It's a small world: I see that Swen was an activist investor a while back alongside Julian Treger, CEO of CoTec...I've been following CoTec because of a 'special situation (I think)' with another of their investee co's....

I may sign up to the webcall.

Apols to others for the O/T.

.."You surely are not trying to create a narrative that ZIOC in some way adds to the attractiveness of a Rio / Glencore tie up - are you?.."

I'll let MM reply to the issue you raise, from that curiously narrow angle.

What seems evident is that ZIOC will be attractive in its own right:

(1) A Rio/GLEN tie-up (as so far variously reported) would (i) address Rio's Chinalco issue...but not GLEN's own problematic relationship with China/CMRG; (ii) allow GLEN's Cu mines to benefit from Rio's operational expertise (the ostensible rationale); (iii) allow /enable both to benefit from the world's ongoing readiness to extract coal; (iv) but do nothing to address Rio's problem of declining Pilbara grades in its (still key) money-spinner, iron ore.

So ZIOC (as a (part) solution to (iv) would continue to be a worthwhile acquisition for Rio's Pilbara rust problem.

(2) A 'gatecrashing' BHP/GLEN tie-up instead would face a variant issue re (i) - BHP's own fraught relationship with CMRG- see current freeze on Jimblebar/Jinbao fines - and the same issues re (ii) to (iv), exacerbated in (iv) if anything, by BHP's GREATER single-product dependency on its existing iron-ore business

So ZIOC (as a (part) solution to (iv) would continue to be a worthwhile mitigant for BHP's Pilbara rust problem.

(3) IF BHP and Rio both see ZIOC as a (part) solution to their Pilbara rust problems, at the other end of the world, VALE will be concerned at any threat to ITS currently favoured position re supply of DRI-grade ore to Europe, the Americas, the M East and the Far East.

So (a) ZIOC's removal from the field would frustrate BHP and Rio at the Australia end, while (b) alternatively, its exploitation by VALE would allow VALE to increase its dominance of the specialist DRI-grade market.

This would be a variant of the 'Tesco tactic' of buying up suitable sites for supermarkets and then not developing them (which would part-cannibalise its existing sales)...but meanwhile prevents the competition from moving in.

If we accept that ZIOC was up to now mainly the target of RIO's attentions, it would appear likely NOW to be of greater interest to BHP and VALE as well (maybe FMG?) as the majors all jockey for position.

[I wonder at what point Clines (exBHP) and Mitchell(exRIO) will be consulted by Elphick for their views...and together or apart ;->]

The Rio/GLEN manoeuvres have kicked off a new round of high-stakes M&A activity; with a lot of high-level Board attention ; and a re-evaluation of strategic assets both for offense and defense.

Whoever 'wins' and 'loses' in the above , I think ZIOC has just become more attractive to everyone....and a competitive bidding situation...maybe even a pre-emptive strike - is now more likely.

I also think that -with $$$$Bns + career-making/destroying choices on the line - the potential for someone paying 'over the odds' for certainty has increased somewhat.

Do you agree?, If not, why not?

Oops! the link

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2769032-viewpoint-new-mines-to-raise-bhp-rio-iron-ore-grades

Re the Bahraini/Kenya connection, this is under the auspices of the Combined Maritime Forces (CMF) partnership.

See hxxps://www.cusnc.navy.mil/Combined-Maritime-Forces/ for details.

Combined Maritime Forces (CMF) is a multi-national naval partnership, which exists to promote security, stability and prosperity across approximately 3.2 million square miles of international waters, which encompass some of the world’s most important shipping lanes.

CMF’s main focus areas are defeating terrorism, preventing piracy, encouraging regional cooperation, and promoting a safe maritime environment.

Headquartered in Bahrain, it's commanded by a U.S. Navy Vice Admiral, who also serves as Commander U.S. Naval Forces Central Command and U.S. 5th Fleet.

All three commands are co-located at U.S. Naval Support Activity Bahrain. Deputy commander is a UK Royal Navy Commodore. Other senior staff roles at CMF headquarters are filled from personnel from member nations, including Australia, France, Italy and Denmark.

Member nations include: Albania, Argentina, Australia, BAHRAIN, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Colombia, Denmark, Djibouti, Ecuador, Egypt, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, India, Iraq, Italy, Japan, Jordan, KENYA, Republic of Korea, KUWAIT, Malaysia, Mauritius, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Oman, Pakistan, the PHILIPPINES, Poland, Portugal, Qatar, SAUDI ARABIA, Seychelles, Singapore, Spain, Sri Lanka, Sweden, Thailand, Türkiye, UAE, United Kingdom, United States and Yemen.

You can see why SRT would have invested so much time - and effort - in getting Bahrain on board...and the business opportunities, post soft-sell/showcase , that may ensue to SRT from this 'target-rich' environment....

GLA

Per this article

UK-Australian mining firm Rio Tinto expects production from its new Simandou mine in Guinea to lift its overall iron ore grades in the coming years, while the ramp-up of fellow resources firm BHP's Samarco mine in Brazil could produce similar results.

Rio Tinto's average realised iron ore grade fell to a decade low of about 60.5pc this year.. the company expects the high-grade Simandou mine in Guinea to increase its average product ore grades to around 61.7pc by 2032.

The company downgraded the specification of its Pilbara Blend fines ore from 61.6pc Fe to 60.8pc Fe in May. It also increased its sales of lower-grade SP10 ore, which has lower iron and higher impurity levels, over 2024.

BHP is in a similar situation to Rio ... typical Australian ore grades have declined over recent years, dropping below 62pc Fe. But increased production at the higher-grade Samarco operations in 2025 likely supported its overall ore grades.

BHP has not announced any longer-term ore grade forecasts. But a planned increase in its Samarco production, which it expects to average 67pc Fe in the current financial year, is likely to boost grades.

Simandou

Rio Tinto ... will increase production at the site to 60mn t/yr — equivalent to about 18pc of its 2024 Western Australian ore output — by 2028....expects to sell 5mn-10mn t of high-grade ore from the mine in 2026...

Simandou will account for about 15pc of Rio Tinto's total output at that stage.. the company's increasingly mid-grade Pilbara mines and Canadian plants accounting for the rest.

Samarco

BHP aims to produce 7mn-7.5mn t of 67pc Fe ore pellets at Samarco during the 2025-2026 financial year to 30 June, before ramping up capacity to 30mn t/yr by 2028.

Its entire equity-basis production growth in July-September came from Samarco. It produced 2.1mn t of ore over the quarter, up from 1.3mn t a year earlier.

The Samarco ramp-up should lift BHP's average iron ore grade over the next few years, despite the Pilbara grade declines.

Samarco will also diversify BHP's customer base. Close to 90pc of its major Australian iron ore shipments went to China in 2024..making it vulnerable to economic and policy changes in the country.

But Samarco's 2024 sales were split between the Middle East and Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Americas. A third of the mine's customers were in the Americas, with another quarter in Africa and the Middle East.

Grade gains

Both offset grade declines at Pilbara by selling more lump and fewer fines. This has helped them maintain stable realised prices despite falling iron ore grades.

This trend is being driven by what are potentially temporary demand-side factors. Chinese steelmakers began to favour lower-grade lump this year because of concerns about sintering restrictions.

Rio Tinto and BHP's OVERSEAS MINES COULD BE A MORE STABLE PATH to offsetting grade declines than increasing lump sales, GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OVER DEMAND.

This link https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/glencore-rises-prospect-rio-tinto-merger-form-worlds-biggest-miner-2026-01-09/

makes a number of points:

(1) GLEN's trading operations are part of the appeal;

(2) RIO wants to burnish its 'green' credentials by accessing copper, per Berenberg

"Rio needs more copper as "the market (rightly or wrongly) views iron ore as a commodity facing price decline," he said, adding it was better to buy [copper] producing assets rather than to wait to build new mines."

(3) OTOH, he (and others) appear to ignore the 'green' appeal of high-grade iron ore; and

(4) Acknowledges (2) above runs counter to GLEN's choice to retain its coal assets, a decision [it notes] that has generated substantial profits due to soaring prices in recent years, but raises questions of whether Glencore's coal resources would be retained by a combined group.

(5) May not be without personal risks for Trott : "The companies said late on Thursday the expectation was it would involve an all-share buyout of "some or all" of Glencore by Rio Tinto. They did not disclose whether there would be a takeover premium or who would manage the combined company if the world's largest-ever mining deal was completed...".

If Nagle 'did a Glasenberg (cf the GLEN/Xstrata 'merger-that -turned-into an-ambush'), Trott might rue the day...

GLA

Oh, look!

..." ETM (Greenland claim) plans to add A US-BASED ADVISOR TO ACCELERATE NORTH AMERICAN ENGAGEMENT.

[ Ed.: what's the betting there'll be a Trumpian connection?]..."

Yesterday brings:

hxxps://www.fool.com.au/tickers/asx-etm/announcements/2026-01-09/6a1306516/appointment-of-ballard-partners/

.."Ballard Partners, the lobbying firm founded by Brian Ballard, is noted for its extensive connections to current and former key decision-makers, primarily in the Republican party, especially those associated with Donald Trump's administration. The firm also employs several prominent Democratic figures.

Key connections include:

Susie Wiles: Trump's current White House Chief of Staff previously worked for Ballard Partners, joining in 2011 and managing Trump's 2016 Florida campaign. Her current position is a significant connection for the firm.

Pam Bondi: Trump's choice for Attorney General, Bondi was a former Ballard lobbyist. She represented various companies before returning to the firm, and her current role provides another key link.

Donald Trump: Brian Ballard has a long-standing personal and professional relationship with Donald Trump, dating back decades. Ballard was the 2016 Trump campaign's Florida finance chair and served as vice chairman of his inaugural committee..."

There's 'connections'....and there's CONNECTIONS.....

Sundance Resources/BUR appear to have missed a trick.

;->

GLA

Oh, look!

..." ETM (Greenland claim) plans to add A US-BASED ADVISOR TO ACCELERATE NORTH AMERICAN ENGAGEMENT.

[ Ed.: what's the betting there'll be a Trumpian connection?]..."

hxxps://www.fool.com.au/tickers/asx-etm/announcements/2026-01-09/6a1306516/appointment-of-ballard-partners/

.."Ballard Partners, the lobbying firm founded by Brian Ballard, is noted for its extensive connections to current and former key decision-makers, primarily in the Republican party, especially those associated with Donald Trump's administration. The firm also employs several prominent Democratic figures.

Key connections include:

Susie Wiles: Trump's current White House Chief of Staff previously worked for Ballard Partners, joining in 2011 and managing Trump's 2016 Florida campaign. Her current position is a significant connection for the firm.

Pam Bondi: Trump's choice for Attorney General, Bondi was a former Ballard lobbyist. She represented various companies before returning to the firm, and her current role provides another key link.

Donald Trump: Brian Ballard has a long-standing personal and professional relationship with Donald Trump, dating back decades. Ballard was the 2016 Trump campaign's Florida finance chair and served as vice chairman of his inaugural committee..."

There's 'connections'....and there's CONNECTIONS.....

;->

GLA

..Cutifani (not clear in what capacity)..he's described as Director and Executive Advisor, without saying (unlike everyone else in the line-up) of/to his organisation.

The line-up around him, which doesn't appear to follow rhyme or reason, includes - randomly- the reps of Orion Resources, Pacific Road Capital, Canaccord Genuity, Sibanye Stillwater and Saudi Exim Bank .....which could mean anything...or nothing, of course.

'Nature abhors a vacuum'.

ATB

Thanks. Catbert

I'd mentally queried Orion as a potential link to frontco GIS, but thought that was a bit tenuous....

Who knows?

ATB

On again next week

https://futuremineralsforum.com/future-minerals-forum-speakers/

From a quick scan:

The usual suspects, PIF, Manara, Ma'aden, Worley (link to our KSA investor?); BHP, Rio Tinto (Chair), Vale CEO, Vale Base etc.

Friedland (Ivanhoe) and Cutifani (not clear in what capacity) will be rubbing shoulders. No one from GLEN or Vision Blue this time or other 'persons of interest' AFAICS.

ATB