Member Info for extrader

Agreed!

Honourable mentions for

-'If you want a guarantee, buy a toaster.'

-'If you want loyalty, get a dog'.

GLA

Https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-baowu-takes-control-simandou-iron-ore-operator-2026-01-30/

.."DAKAR, Jan 30 (Reuters) - China’s Baowu Resources, the world’s largest steelmaker, has tightened its grip on one of the biggest untapped high‑grade iron-ore deposits by taking control of the operator of Guinea's Simandou Blocks 1 and 2 after raising its stake in the Winning Consortium Simandou to 51% from 49%, the company said on Friday.

The Singapore-registered parent company and its Guinean unit have been renamed Baowu Winning Consortium Simandou following the deal, the statement said. It was approved by Guinea on May 30, 2024 and formally completed on January 30, 2026....

BWCS owns 85% of the Guinean operating company for Blocks 1 and 2, strengthening Beijing’s leverage over Simandou in a country that also exports bauxite and other minerals..."

This has been in the works for some time, let's see if China takes a bit more in a Rio/Chinalco asset swap.

GLA

Thanks for that perspective.

We should all have a clearer view of what's coming don the pike ere long, I suspect.

GLA

Conclusion : ..' nautical , but nice'.

GLA

Thanks.

I was thinking - in light of your periodic allusion to management of the ZIOC s/p over the last several months - of this bit:

.."Under the terms of the transaction, announced on Friday, the joint venture (JV) will acquire Votorantim’s stake at an all-cash consideration of R$10.50 a share, representing a premium of about 21.2% to CBA’s 20-day volume-weighted average share price prior to the signing of the agreement....

.."Following completion, the JV will be required under Brazilian law to launch a mandatory tender offer for the remaining shares in CBA not held by Votorantim. The partners have also indicated that they may pursue a concurrent delisting tender offer, subject to further review after closing..."

https://www.miningweekly.com/article/rio-tinto-chalco-to-buy-control-of-brazilian-aluminium-producer-cba-2026-01-30

Cheers.

Hi MM,

Pls run this concrete example of a Rio/Chinalco deal by AI for its possible relevance to ZIOC, mutatis mutandis, Rio/BaoWu etc...

Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rio-tinto-chalco-acquire-controlling-103458309.html

Some interesting - and maybe relevant? - 'compare and contrast' details.

.."Rio Tinto and the Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) have signed a definitive agreement to jointly acquire a controlling stake in Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio (CBA) from Votorantim.

The acquisition, structured through a joint venture (JV), with Rio Tinto holding 33% and Chalco 67%, values Votorantim’s 68.596% stake in CBA at approximately $902.6m..."

.."This marks an effort by Rio Tinto and Chalco to enhance their footprint in the global low-carbon aluminium sector by leveraging their combined expertise in aluminium production to drive growth at CBA..."

.."Rio Tinto aluminium and lithium CEO Jérôme Pécresse said: “This acquisition, jointly with Chalco, of Votorantim’s controlling position in CBA’s fully integrated aluminium supply chain in Brazil is aligned with our strategy to deliver value for shareholders by extending our low-carbon, renewable-powered aluminium footprint in rapidly growing markets. It also provides the opportunity to grow our bauxite and alumina supply chain in the Atlantic region.

“Our partnership with Chalco brings together our combined operational excellence, innovation and unique project execution capabilities, unlocking the potential to create value for the benefit of our shareholders, as well as CBA’s employees, customers and local communities.”

Rio Tinto's fully owned subsidiary, Rio Tinto International Holdings, is participating in the transaction agreement and is set to retain Rio Tinto's 33% stake in the JV.

Plans for a delisting tender offer may coincide with the mandatory tender offer but could be reassessed after the acquisition is finalised.

Furthermore, Rio Tinto and its affiliates may engage in purchasing CBA shares outside the US during the pending tender offer period, provided these actions comply with applicable regulations..."

Thank you.

ATB

Https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rio-tinto-chalco-acquire-controlling-103458309.html

Some interesting - and maybe relevant? - 'compare and contrast' details.

.."Rio Tinto and the Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) have signed a definitive agreement to jointly acquire a controlling stake in Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio (CBA) from Votorantim.

The acquisition, structured through a joint venture (JV), with Rio Tinto holding 33% and Chalco 67%, values Votorantim’s 68.596% stake in CBA at approximately $902.6m..."

.."This marks an effort by Rio Tinto and Chalco to enhance their footprint in the global low-carbon aluminium sector by leveraging their combined expertise in aluminium production to drive growth at CBA..."

.."Rio Tinto aluminium and lithium CEO Jérôme Pécresse said: “This acquisition, jointly with Chalco, of Votorantim’s controlling position in CBA’s fully integrated aluminium supply chain in Brazil is aligned with our strategy to deliver value for shareholders by extending our low-carbon, renewable-powered aluminium footprint in rapidly growing markets. It also provides the opportunity to grow our bauxite and alumina supply chain in the Atlantic region.

“Our partnership with Chalco brings together our combined operational excellence, innovation and unique project execution capabilities, unlocking the potential to create value for the benefit of our shareholders, as well as CBA’s employees, customers and local communities.”

Rio Tinto's fully owned subsidiary, Rio Tinto International Holdings, is participating in the transaction agreement and is set to retain Rio Tinto's 33% stake in the JV.

Plans for a delisting tender offer may coincide with the mandatory tender offer but could be reassessed after the acquisition is finalised.

Furthermore, Rio Tinto and its affiliates may engage in purchasing CBA shares outside the US during the pending tender offer period, provided these actions comply with applicable regulations..."

GLA

Note, too, the thread title, China..'refocusses'...

.."MMG acquired Khoemacau Copper Mine for $1.9 billion - major transaction. And yday, Zijin announced cash acquisition of Allied Gold (West Africa) for near $4 billion. .."

AFAIAA, (1) MMG has existing operating assets (Australia, DRC and Peru), so Lesotho = low risk political and geographic diversification, into a working mining system, while (2) 'just announced' obv doesn't fall into the period to 2024 quoted.

HTH

Hi s.j.w.

Your flattery is uncalled-for......and my error : there should have been a '?' at the end of my sentence, making it a question (ie is that your -casapino's -rationale?) to HIM rather than an assertion to the wider readership.

My apologies.

I hope casapinos will be along to clarify if that WAS his rationale (which seems plausible to me) or he had something else in mind, which would help my own understanding of how things might play out.

HTH and ATB

.."The offer if/when it comes will take the form of one RIO share for every13 Glen share........"

On the rationale that GLEN shareholders will be happy that Rio IS going ahead...and will gain (in Rio currency terms), when Rio's share rises with confirmation of a successful takeover bid...

GLA

Per Semafor Gulf..

.."Chinese lending to Africa has plummeted as Beijing shifts its focus to strategic investments on the continent. Total lending in 2024 amounted to $2.1 billion, down by more than 90% from its 2016 peak, a Boston University report showed. The pivot partly reflects the poor performance of previous loans, after several African nations defaulted. In response, Beijing has recalibrated its engagement with the continent, pursuing investments in strategic projects — notably in energy, mining, and transportation — amid an intensifying rivalry with Washington...."

Xi may have other priorities at the moment, the Spectator writing of an attempted palace coup, hence the recent purging of senior military.

https://spectator.com/article/has-xi-jinping-fought-off-another-coup

'Interesting times' may be an understatement.

GLA

Indeed.

For the ambidextrous investor:

- on the one hand, this will dissuade anyone who might be 'planning a Tesco' : acquiring the asset and just 'parking' it, denying it to others;

- on the other hand, it raises the 'resource nationalism' risk...and requires potential Strategics to 'put their money where their mouth is' -or may be.

A disinterested observer might say that Rio (if it IS Rio that's stalking ZIOC and is behind the share lock-up) now has TWO 'put up or shut up' notices to deal with- GLEN by the 5th Feb ; and ZIOC by the 26th Feb....with maybe an indication by the 10th (Indaba?) or the 19th (Rio FY results?)

AFAICS.

What do others think?

It (Cameroon) is.

The overview: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/economy/sundance-resources-loses-arbitration-over-congo-iron-ore-permit-revocation

The wider context and implications:

https://discoveryalert.com.au/arbitration-framework-mining-permit-disputes-2026/

The only relevant read-across (to ETM, which has a different argument) appears to be:

"What $8.8 Billion in Damages Reveals About Mining Asset Valuations

The magnitude of damages claimed in the Sundance Resources arbitration provides insight into the complex methodologies employed for valuing undeveloped mining assets and quantifying losses from permit revocations. The $8.8 billion claim represents one of the largest mining arbitration damage claims in Central African history, though the tribunal's complete dismissal of all claims indicates significant challenges in proving speculative asset values.

Exploration Cost Recovery in Failed Mining Ventures

Mining companies typically structure arbitration claims around two primary components: sunk exploration costs and lost future profits. The exploration cost recovery methodology focuses on documented expenditures for geological surveys, drilling programs, metallurgical testing, and environmental studies conducted prior to permit revocation.

Industry standards for exploration cost recovery generally apply compound interest rates of 8-12% annually to documented expenditures, reflecting the time value of invested capital and opportunity costs. However, tribunals increasingly scrutinize the reasonableness of exploration spending and its direct correlation to project advancement.

The ICC tribunal's rejection of all Sundance claims suggests either inadequate documentation of exploration expenditures or tribunal findings that the company's activities failed to constitute meaningful project development under Republic of Congo legal standards."

Synthesis https://wallstreetwhistleblower.org/2026/01/26/sundance-resources-loses-arbitration-over-congo-iron-ore-permit-dispute/

HTH and ATB

Sundance Resources loses Congo arbitration, which helps explain the discrepancy:

The overview:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/economy/sundance-resources-loses-arbitration-over-congo-iron-ore-permit-revocation

The wider context and implications:

https://discoveryalert.com.au/arbitration-framework-mining-permit-disputes-2026/

Synthesis https://wallstreetwhistleblower.org/2026/01/26/sundance-resources-loses-arbitration-over-congo-iron-ore-permit-dispute/

.."Australia’s Sundance Resources has lost a high-stakes international arbitration after a tribunal rejected its challenge to the Republic of Congo’s revocation of an iron ore mining permit, a decision that underscores the legal risks companies face when resource projects stall in politically sensitive regions.

The ruling came .. under International Chamber of Commerce rules. It found that Congo acted within its rights when it withdrew the permit held by Sundance’s subsidiary, Congo Iron, because the project failed to advance within the development window set between 2016 and 2018. As a result, the panel dismissed all claims brought by Sundance .

Sundance reacted sharply to the outcome, saying.. the company was “shocked” by the award and accused the tribunal of fundamental errors [arguing] that the panel restricted Sundance’s ability to present arguments that later proved central to the decision... the ruling represents a decisive setback for the miner, which had framed the permit withdrawal as an unlawful expropriation.

Congo’s government revoked the permit in December 2020 and later reassigned it to Sangha Mining Development, a unit linked to China’s Bestway Finance. That move .. led Sundance to launch arbitration proceedings in March 2021. The company sought $8.8 billion in damages tied to the Mbalam–Nabeba iron ore project, which spans the border between Congo and Cameroon.

Although the tribunal sided with Congo, Sundance has not abandoned its legal fight. The company said it has identified ' serious procedural irregularities that caused substantial injustice'. It plans to challenge the award under the English Arbitration Act 1996 and has asked the High Court in London to set the decision aside. Congo’s government did not immediately comment on the ruling.

For investors and observers, the case highlights the thin line between regulatory enforcement and expropriation claims in extractive industries.

While Sundance insists the permit revocation was improper, the tribunal’s finding reflects a growing willingness by states to defend such actions when companies fail to meet development obligations. The result reinforces a broader lesson for mining firms operating in emerging markets: arbitration offers recourse, but it does not guarantee protection when projects fall behind schedule."

Any Strategics interested in ZIOC will want to see a robust Project implementation strategy, IMO - and likely a 'higher risk' discount, IMO.

What does AI thin

The overview:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/economy/sundance-resources-loses-arbitration-over-congo-iron-ore-permit-revocation

The wider context and implications:

https://discoveryalert.com.au/arbitration-framework-mining-permit-disputes-2026/

Synthesis https://wallstreetwhistleblower.org/2026/01/26/sundance-resources-loses-arbitration-over-congo-iron-ore-permit-dispute/

.."Australia’s Sundance Resources has lost a high-stakes international arbitration after a tribunal rejected its challenge to the Republic of Congo’s revocation of an iron ore mining permit, a decision that underscores the legal risks companies face when resource projects stall in politically sensitive regions.

The ruling came from a tribunal seated in London and operating under International Chamber of Commerce rules. It found that Congo acted within its rights when it withdrew the permit held by Sundance’s subsidiary, Congo Iron, because the project failed to advance within the development window set between 2016 and 2018. As a result, the panel dismissed all claims brought by Sundance .

Sundance reacted sharply to the outcome, saying.. the company was “shocked” by the award and accused the tribunal of fundamental errors [arguing] that the panel restricted Sundance’s ability to present arguments that later proved central to the decision... the ruling represents a decisive setback for the miner, which had framed the permit withdrawal as an unlawful expropriation.

Congo’s government revoked the permit in December 2020 and later reassigned it to Sangha Mining Development, a unit linked to China’s Bestway Finance. That move .. led Sundance to launch arbitration proceedings in March 2021. The company sought $8.8 billion in damages tied to the Mbalam–Nabeba iron ore project, which spans the border between Congo and Cameroon.

Although the tribunal sided with Congo, Sundance has not abandoned its legal fight. The company said it has identified what it calls serious procedural irregularities that caused substantial injustice. It plans to challenge the award under the English Arbitration Act 1996 and has asked the High Court in London to set the decision aside. Congo’s government did not immediately comment on the ruling.

For investors and observers, the case highlights the thin line between regulatory enforcement and expropriation claims in extractive industries.

While Sundance insists the permit revocation was improper, the tribunal’s finding reflects a growing willingness by states to defend such actions when companies fail to meet development obligations. The result reinforces a broader lesson for mining firms operating in emerging markets: arbitration offers recourse, but it does not guarantee protection when projects fall behind schedule."

Any Strategics interested in ZIOC will want to see a robust Project implementation strategy, IMO - and likely a 'higher risk' discount.

AFAICS

ATB

Well, credit where credit is due, MM has occasionally asserted that he'd been 'informed' that the s/p WAS being range-bound, without further explanation or supporting evidence.

It's hard to know whether his source was/is 'inside' or an AI hallucination, but the argument that SOMETHING is going on seems pretty strong.

No sh*it, Sherlock.

Wittgenstein ('Whereof one cannot speak, thereof must one be silent') would approve.

;->

GLA and ATB

The link, if interested: https://www.worldsdeepestmarathon.com/

GLA

Hi marcusg71,

There are a number of interesting speakers, for sure....and some good conference topics:

- Strategic partnerships (think PublicPrivate Initiatives; IFC; Development Finance Institutions;

- Africa Finance Corp - Building Africa's steel value chain (cf. ARISE IIP/A2MP);

- Geopolitical scramble US/China (Ivanhoe's Phar);

-Chinese investment shift - can it work with Western DFIs ?

- Resource nationalism cf Guinea, Rio Tinto, Simandou 2040;

-Gulf Capital role (Orion Resource Partners + World Bank);

- Downstream buyers/ offtakers > equity partners? (Mercuria); and (my personal favourite):

World’s Deepest Marathon: the world premiere of mining’s most extraordinary underground, record-breaking challenge

Tuesday, February 10

"Join us for the world premiere of World’s Deepest Marathon, a powerful showcase of the mining industry at its most innovative and united. Filmed 1,119 metres below sea level inside Boliden’s Garpenberg mine, this remarkable documentary follows both novice and seasoned runners – including representatives from 20 companies across the mining sector – as they prepare to confront darkness, silence and depth and run the deepest marathon ever attempted. "

ATB

.."a significant potential fall to 0.140 GBP from the current price around 7.44p...

Maybe I'm having a bad day, but that reads like a FALL to 14p to me, from the current price of around 0.0744 GBP..?