Member Info for extrader

Let's see if history rhymes.

Remember this article ?

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214790X22001113

"The South–South investment that never happened: Vale in Guinea"

.."In Agnelli's strive to convince shareholders about the importance of investing in Africa, President Lula (2003–2010) turned out to be an unexpected ally for the pursuit and operationalization of Vale's ambitions. The Brazilian President not only supported Agnelli's international aspirations, but he also put the state apparatus at Vale's service. “Everyone was mesmerized with the velocity with which Brazil expanded its outreach in the region where Vale planned to expand its business”, according to a source.9 Along with the wave of new cooperation projects in Mozambique, discussed in greater detail in other articles of this special issue, the Brazilian government also announced the opening of a network of embassies in West Africa, from Guinea to Liberia and Sierra Leone, countries where Vale would need strong diplomatic support from Brasília. In the process, Lula and Agnelli forged a personal relationship based on a shared vision of Brazil as a global player and on their complementary personalities. Agnelli's personal yet aggressive negotiating style paired well with Lula's union leader skills based on dialog and concertation. Inside Vale, the symbiosis between Agnelli and Lula created the impression that the company's fate was tied to that of the Brazilian foreign policy..."

Tick tock.

Big Den and Lula go back a long way.

Asperbras Angola was allegedly the source of a lot of the Lula presidential campaign advertising money. After his election victory, Brazil rescheduled/forgave a chunk of C-B's trade debt (some $ 280m?) within the IMF Paris Club commercial debts restructuring.

It's easy to be generous with 'other people's money'!

Ho hum.

Of only tangential interest here, BUR's largest (10.5%) shareholder, Saudi's entrepreneurial Mithaq Capital has just swooped on a distressed US retail company :

hxxps://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/children-s-place-s-stock-pops-21-after-investor-group-takes-majority-stake/ar-BB1ijZ9S

Market comment highlights aggressive, contrarian and opportunistic approach to business.

Mithaq is the family investment co of the principal shareholders of AlRajhi Bank, the largest Islamic bank in the world by capital and one of the largest joint stock co's in Saudi Arabia.

GLA

And, from your first link :

Total - 1002 Mt @ 66.63% Fe, 1.21% Al2O3, 2.32% SiO2,1.17% LOI, 0.030% P

Mbalam Nabeba

- Silica 4.4% vs. ZIOC 3.5>3.0% Simandou 2.32%

- Alumina 2.6% vs. ZIOC 0.8 > 0.4% Simandou 1.21%

- Phos 0.09% vs. ZIOC 0.04% Simandou 0.03%

ZIOC better than Simandou on alumina, not so on silica, AFAICS.

Is one (low impurity level) more attractive than the other ?

From your link, Zanaga gets the barest of mentions, under 'Other' p32-33.

After running through various 'contenders/outliers' in Brazil, Canada and Australia, we see, right at conclusion:

..."In Africa, Glencore owns 50%100 of the Zanaga Iron Ore Project in Congo-Brazzaville,

and proposes to mine up to 30Mtpa of 66% Fe hematite and 68.5% magnetite...."

taken from the Zioc Mar 2019 Investor Presentation.

The authors seem to share the Wood Mackenzie blind spot re Africa...

WM are the people, remember, more confident re Mbalam-Nabeba than re ZIOC . And yet, there we see

Mbalam-Nabeba isn't even close.

Not only half (maybe less) of ZIOC volume, but also lower quality - 62.6% Fe (cf ZIOC Stage 1 66% > Stage2 68.5%) with LOTS of impurities (see p.13 of the recent presentation):

- Silica 4.4%, ZIOC 3.5>3.0%

- Alumina 2.6%, ZIOC 0.8 > 0.4%

- Phos 0.09% , ZIOC 0.04%

Maybe the penny will drop before long...

GLA and ATB

It seems to me that we have here a replay of the 'transition arrangements' question facing the climate change issue as a whole, ie the pace and direction of the migration from the old to the new.

The starry-eyed climate changers are forcing the pace on 'renewables' whilst ignoring the practicalities of costs/possible complications, whilst ignoring the vast investments sunk into existing (working) arrangements.

This is replicated in the 'narrow' green ore debate : everyone's agreed it's 'desirable', the question is - at what cost to the existing 'world order'- and who will pay ?

China isn't going to mothball serviceable steel mills until it makes economic sense - it's certainly not doing that with its expansive coal-power plans : it's twin/multi-tracking its energy supply arrangements.

Australia - facing a potential double whammy threat to its 2 x major exports - coal and iron ore - will be even keener to postpone even what may eventually be 'the inevitable'.

Something similar seems likely to be the future of 'green ore' : less rapid adoption than the advocates would like, commensurate with 'affordability'.

I've already pointed to the article re Simandou - 'a bet on decarbonisation' - link originally provided by MM, ironically, which acknowledges this underlying dynamic/tension.

The Gulfies are investing for the future, not defending the past / present and don't have the 'legacy capital' issues facing others.

Being 'unencumbered' gives them a different outlook, hopefully more favourable to Zanaga.

All AFAICS.

GLA

Hi atg,

I was aware of the Falcon, that was seized in Toulouse (there for maintenance), when someone switched the AISC back on...that was many years ago.

My question was more as to whether BigDen still had access to the Sheikh's 757 VP-CAL as reported a while back (which would be definitely 'interesting' in itself) or has acquired some other benefactor (ditto).

Eddsy ?

TIA

Encouraging, certainly!

What call sign are you tracking?

The news prompted me to do a quick check on PP-FCC, but that's been in Florida the last 10 days, I'm pretty sure it's Asperbras-owned, the folk behind the recently resurrected 2013 12x hospitals contract.

Let's see what Monday brings. Some progress would certainly be welcome.

ATB

PS the PN stuff is in an ad by CMA-CGM somewhere in the middle.

.."Friday's depeches carries 2 x snippets of general interest :.."

https://www.lesdepechesdebrazzaville.fr/

Cover and last page Friday 9th Feb.

ATB

د. ثاني أحمد الزيودي

@ThaniAlZeyoudi

·

Feb 9

The UAE and Congo-Brazzaville are forging a trade partnership rich in potential. In December, we finalized terms of a CEPA, which will build on the $10.9bn in non-oil bilateral trade recorded in the first 9 months of 2023 – an 83.1% increase on the same period in 2022

د. ثاني أحمد الزيودي

@ThaniAlZeyoudi

·

Feb 9

I was delighted to meet HE Jean-Baptiste Ondaye, Minister of Economy & Finance, today and begin plans for the CEPA's implementation. As their 8th-largest export market, we also discussed ways to leverage the UAE's role as a key global gateway for Congo-Brazaville's exporters.

HTH

Friday's depeches carries 2 x snippets of general interest :

(1) .."The CMA CGM SCANDOLA arrives in Pointe-Noire as the Group's first LNG-fuelled LNG-fuelled container ship to call in the Republic of Congo

The CMA CGM SCANDOLA is deployed on CMA CGM's West Africa Express service, directly linking West and Central Africa (Tema, Lekki, Abidjan, Pointe-Noire) to China, South-East Asia and India.

CMA CGM supports its customers and strengthens its services with high-capacity vessels.

CMA CGM's WAX service, WHOSE LAST PORT IN AFRICA IS POINTE-NOIRE , enables Central African exporters to reach Asia with competitive transit times, and is also a new vector for importers, complementing the Asia West Africa Service (ASAFGR), dedicated to imports and which continues to reach Pointe-Noire AS THE FIRST PORT IN AFRICA from Asia..."

PN's importance as a hub is growing, let's see what, if anything AD Ports does with its new Concession.

(2) Big Den is in Abu Dhabi atm to close that bilateral trade AND INVESTMENT [my caps] agreement.....

COOPERATION

Congo and the United Arab Emirates strengthen their economic partnership

The President of the Republic, Denis Sassou N'Guesso, has been in Abu Dhabi, in the United Arab Emirates, since 8 February, where he and his counterpart Mohammed ben Zayed Al Nahyane will preside over the signing ceremony of the

comprehensive economic partnership agreement between the two countries.

For the Emirates' Minister of State Minister for Foreign Trade, the agreement represents "a great investment opportunity for Congo, a country with a prosperous economy in Central Africa and a valuable trade and investment partner".

"The signing of this agreement builds on the dynamic economic ties between the two countries, supported by non-oil

trade, which doubled to more than two billion dollars in the first half of 2023", said Thani Ben Ahmed Zeyoudi in his X account...."

GLA and ATB

.."The Australians have little incentive to invest in new technology. After all there is not yet a much of a premium for DRI pellets and anyway others are well ahead in this regard."...

On the economics point, see https://seekingalpha.com/article/4667975-simandou-project-rio-tinto-bet-on-green-steel, where - discussing the economics of Simandou - we read

.." and the price spread between the higher (65%) and the 62% standard grades actually narrowed after reaching a peak in the year 2021. Apparently, the demand situation which determines utilization and consequently the margins of steel mills are the critical factors which impacts the price spread.....Therefore, Simandou primarily remains a bet on the decarbonization of steelmaking..."

OTOH, it DOES seem as though Zanaga may still have an ace in the hole with the low amount of its post-benificiation impurities (alumina, silica etc), which are lower even than Simandou.

And you've helpfully highlighted the additional 'green' tick-boxes of hydro input and 'low emission' slurry pipeline for export....

Recalling that the ZIOC 'team' earned their spurs on 'early Simandou', I really wish AT had come back on my AGM 'wrap-up' Q : which did they think would be first to export commercial quantities of ore - Simandou or Zanaga?

Hopefully, still an open question !

GLA and ATB

Having had a gander at the posts in question, I've broken the usual habit of a lifetime (giving folk the benefit of the doubt) and added the writer to my shortlist of filtered posters.

Well, 'being invested' puts comments in context:

It suggests that - hopefully - you've done a certain amount of research, so may have some basis for your views (which increases their value).

OTOH, you may be prone to 'confirmation bias', which may reduce their value.

Either way, it gives the reader something to bear in mind and us more than the comment from a random stranger.

Posting history over time is obv 'worth' more, but we deal with the world as it is, not as we might wish it to be.

At least IMO.

Hi Jiving,

I was holding back to see if there was any news out of Riyadh today, close of PIF's Private Sector Forum.

There's talk of deals struck by a local coffee company, but that's it, so far .....

https://www.zawya.com/en/press-release/government-news/at-pif-private-sector-forum-saudi-coffee-company-inks-9-key-agreements-t5omamws

Coming back to your thesis :

.."2023: Iron ore Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves have not been re-estimated since 2015 (refer earlier Glencore reports). Glencore is no longer an active participant in the previously-disclosed Zanaga project. The REMAINING iron ore projects are not financially material to the Group and are, therefore, not reproduced in this report."

(1) The reason for dropping Zanaga -as an 'inactive participant' - rings hollow, as others have commented. It would be interesting to check if there any other, 'minority interest' shareholdings that continue to be reported (I'm not familiar with GLEN) and what is the customary threshold for 'inactivity'? It can't be 'mind or management', given Marty + 2 x BoD positions. Is it absence of ancillary roles, such as offtake or marketing?

Whatever. After the (debatable, IMO) reason for dropping Zanaga, ALL other projects are excluded explicitly for 'lack of financial materiality'. By inference, whatever the issue with Zanaga, financial immateriality isn't it. A back-handed compliment of sorts!

..."So this in the view of the report compilers, is a notable change of status in the period 2022-23: "Glencore is no longer an active participant in the previously-disclosed Zanaga project. " As ever we have to clutch at straws, but it could indicate a disposal of Glencore's ZIOC equity stake (as opposed to its offtake interest) is possibly agreed but "subject to..." finalisation of details? "

Seems likely to this straw-clutcher ;-> !

I go back to Wilt's emphasis on Ma'aden's offtake aspirations and the unanswered question of whether advertised attendee/speaker Gary Nagle of GLEN actually showed up or not? Maybe a diplomatic absence, to avoid being put on the spot re its (ongoing ?) offtake interests?

We await 'events'

'Dum spiro, spero'.

GLA

Agreed re opening t/p !

Note that I started by arguing the thesis of 'benign neglect' by the 2 core shareholders....other bees are surely now buzzing around the honey-pot (to mix metaphors).

GLA

That's an expensive albeit simple solution!

My view is that there's such a disparity between the current s/p and what we believe it's worth that it's in the major shareholders' interest to shake us out if they can, either themselves or through 'friends'.

Suppose that casual, unconnected PI's hold, for the sake of argument 5% of ZIOC between us, say - for the maths - 30m shares.

They're currently 'worth' @ 0.08 abt £ 2.4million, as opposed to £ 30 million for EVERY 100p achieved if eventually included in a formal sale.

My t/p was 200p, at which level these 30 million shares would be worth £ 60 million.

There's a lot of City (or personal) bonus you could earn for 'buying low and selling high'....Talk of £ 4 to £ 5 and you're looking at a serious incentive to game the system.

It doesn't have to be investors for the longer term, either, if our understanding is correct, they could pre-agree/have pre-agreed to 'flip' to a core investor and deliver a useful chunk of shares to whomever.

You only need 2 arbitrageurs for this to remain safely below a disclosable threshold, AFAIAA.

Jes' sayin', like.

GLA

I worked for Lloyds Bank in the '70's, back when Sir Jeremy Morse was Chair. Lloyds had a tilt at Standard Chartered, which ultimately failed when a 'white knight'appeared and blocked the deal.

Apart from that loss, the biggest problem - apparently - was dealing with major M Eastern shareholders in Lloyds (Easa Al Gurg, being one), who were VERY upset that Lloyds hadn't tipped them the wink beforehand and allowed them to 'help' the deal go through.

The concept - and illegality - of 'concert party' dealings of this type was alien to them -and tbf most bankers of that generation.

I suspect it's different now.

I believe ZIOC will play this with a straight bat, GLEN I'm not so sure about (but Gary is under some pressure to show a 'clean pair of hands', so I think/hope that GLEN will also do the Right Thing).

The reality, however is that there's almost certainly a policy of 'benign neglect' towards us , in that the fewer PI's there are the easier things can proceed (assuming they are!) administratively...

That's my take, anyway.

GLA

.."Looks like we have another live one chaps 🤦🏻‍♂️.

Not from the neck up, it seems.