Member Info for extrader

Which board would that be, pls?

TIA

Hi marcusg71,

Oops! My bad - had a 'senior moment' and didn't think to look under 'M'...;-<

I hope the other anomalies can be as easily explained.

And you've highlighted another curiosity : The ref in your link to to 'new sales agreement' is interesting, I'd have thought that an agreement or contract would be RNSable, as a 'material' upgrade to the less precise or binding 'allocation' that was reported at the time of the buy-in and repeated in the October interims:

.."As part of the transaction, MARKETING RIGHTS over 20% of the iron ore products from the Zanaga Project WILL be ALLOCATED to Gulf Iron and Steel (GIS)...."

I'm not a lawyer, but I think there's a (welcome, depending on terms) step-change in commitment/significance, don't you?

GLA

Everything suggests to me that this is the real deal, too.

But this step doesn't seem to fit in...and I'm not comfortable with what I don't understand.

Maybe - like the chopping and changing before the new investors subscribed - the Indaba RNS is just a 'for compliance' placeholder, whilst other things are being signed off...and we'll get an amended invite in due course?

Or a 'last chance, guys ' notice before a final decision?

As you say, though, in any event not about the PI's..

'Dum spiro, spero'

ATB

ZIOC's RNS told us that it would be ' hosting an event during Mining Indaba 2026 to provide a briefing to its investors on its strategic partner process and the Zanaga Iron Ore Project's development plans.'

Looking at the website, ZIOC doesn't appear on the list of exhibitors, speakers or sponsors...nor as a participant in any of the 3 1/2 days' worth of agenda discussions, neither do any of our new 'notables'.

Its event venue - Mount Nelson Hotel - isn't one of the 10 event locations listed.

So: an event 'during' Indaba turns out not to be an event 'at' Indaba, AFAICS.

The RNS adds:

- A copy of the presentation given at the event will be made available on the Company's website.

- If you are interested in attending, please indicate your interest here at zanaga@blytheray.com.

- More detailed information on the Investor Event will be announced shortly.

Maybe all will become clear: it's certainly all very odd as things stand:

(a) the 'event' timing is 3pm S Africa, so 1pm UK time.

I suppose an intraday announcement/uploading to website at 1pm/3pm is possible, but anything meaningful would surely be RNS-able...ie at 0700?

That is 0900 SA time...which would rather 'steal the thunder' of the S African presentation....unless SA got the 'actionable' details first and we learned about it the next morning in the UK. Shome mishtake, Shirley...?

But:

(b) it doesn't look as though ZIOC are exactly encouraging attendance...or a wide(r) audience:

I'm sure everything presented AT Indaba will be 'on record', there's no indication (so far) that ZIOC are proposing anything similar at their 'off-site' event...(*which incidentally also effectively EXCLUDES any UK-based PI from showing up).

* If so, the 'big reveal' would actually be a 'big conceal'

We were told that the new website - announced with much fanfare 3rd December 2025- ' featuring updated branding and content, including a new logo,' marked the Company's commitment to growth and innovation, WOULD [OFFER] STAKEHOLDERS A MORE ENGAGING AND ACCESSIBLE DIGITAL EXPERIENCE'.

C'mon guys ! Stream the event in real time, so that at least there's the semblance of a level playing field.

As things stand, I'm not impressed.

GLA

Worth reading what Cozmo thinks he brings to the party - the below-the-line contribution, which seems to be a recent update:

About

Zanaga Iron (ZIOC) is a high-grade iron ore development company with its flagship asset - the Zanaga Project - located in the Republic of Congo. Zanaga is a globally significant asset with a 6.9 billion tonne resource and 2.1 billion tonne reserve, aiming at 30Mtpa production of high-grade, low impurity DRI pellet feed. With all key permits secured and engineering studies advancing, Zanaga is well positioned to benefit from increasing demand for high-quality, low-impurity iron ore, utilising low operating costs and an efficient slurry pipeline to the port to become one of the world's foremost producers of high-grade premium DRI pellet feed iron ore concentrate.

So far, so same-oh.

------------------------------------------------------------------

Cozmo, as strategy director of Zanaga, brings extensive senior owners’ team, mine development and operating experience with global and mid-cap miners across precious metals and bulk ores, onshore processing & beneficiation, materials handling, and direct shipping. Non-executive director experience, for critical minerals and ASX listing.

Combined finance and engineering background: due diligence and delivery of large-scale projects to $1Bn, leadership of operations in Africa and developing countries in gold, bauxite and iron-ore.

Significant EARLY-STAGE EXPERIENCE; first point of financial & technical contact for debt institutions, equity investors and government. Cross-cultural negotiator and communicator having lived and worked in Europe, Africa, the Americas and Australasia.

SKILLSETS AND COMPETENCIES

MINING INVESTMENT: OWNERS' team & project leadership, technical due diligence & mining advisory, investment valuation, resources & reserves planning, DEAL-STRUCTURING & negotiation, MULTILATERAL PROJECT FINANCING, regulatory and fiscal stabilization (GOVERNMENT) agreements.

MINE DEVELOPMENT AND MINING OPERATIONS: strategic and operational life-of-mine planning, large-scale project management, mine-processing-rail-port-transshipment development, operational readiness & change-management, debottlenecking & ramp-up, performance optimization, business & unit cost improvement, developing local content, building high performance teams, environmental & social governance, mine closure and rehabilitation.

DEBT AND EQUITY CAPITAL MARKETS: Regulation-FD and SEC-compliant reporting to investment teams, establishing buy/sell-side relationships, COMMERCIAL LENDERS AND DEVELOPMENT FINANCE INSTITUTIONS, management & statutory reporting, JORC, NI43-101, SK1300, DCM (= Debt Capital Markets) loan governance, waivers & consent compliance...."

Not the sort of person you'd hire (or who would likely be interested in your offer) if you were expecting another year or so of can-kicking, IMO.

GLA

Worth reading what Cozmo thinks he brings to the party - the below-the-line contribution, which seems to be a recent update:

About

Zanaga Iron (ZIOC) is a high-grade iron ore development company with its flagship asset - the Zanaga Project - located in the Republic of Congo. Zanaga is a globally significant asset with a 6.9 billion tonne resource and 2.1 billion tonne reserve, aiming at 30Mtpa production of high-grade, low impurity DRI pellet feed. With all key permits secured and engineering studies advancing, Zanaga is well positioned to benefit from increasing demand for high-quality, low-impurity iron ore, utilising low operating costs and an efficient slurry pipeline to the port to become one of the world's foremost producers of high-grade premium DRI pellet feed iron ore concentrate.

So far, so same-oh.

------------------------------------------------------------------

Cozmo, as strategy director of Zanaga, brings extensive senior owners’ team, mine development and operating experience with global and mid-cap miners across precious metals and bulk ores, onshore processing & beneficiation, materials handling, and direct shipping. Non-executive director experience, for critical minerals and ASX listing.

Combined finance and engineering background: due diligence and delivery of large-scale projects to $1Bn, leadership of operations in Africa and developing countries in gold, bauxite and iron-ore.

Significant early-stage experience; first point of financial & technical contact for debt institutions, equity investors and government. Cross-cultural negotiator and communicator having lived and worked in Europe, Africa, the Americas and Australasia.

SKILLSETS AND COMPETENCIES

MINING INVESTMENT: OWNERS' team & project leadership, technical due diligence & mining advisory, investment valuation, resources & reserves planning, DEAL-STRUCTURING & negotiation, MULTILATERAL PROJECT FINANCING, regulatory and fiscal stabilization (GOVERNMENT) agreements.

MINE DEVELOPMENT AND MINING OPERATIONS: strategic and operational life-of-mine planning, large-scale project management, mine-processing-rail-port-transshipment development, operational readiness & change-management, debottlenecking & ramp-up, performance optimization, business & unit cost improvement, developing local content, building high performance teams, environmental & social governance, mine closure and rehabilitation.

DEBT AND EQUITY CAPITAL MARKETS: Regulation-FD and SEC-compliant reporting to investment teams, establishing buy/sell-side relationships, COMMERCIAL LENDERS AND DEVELOPMENT FINANCE INSTITUTIONS, management & statutory reporting, JORC, NI43-101, SK1300, DCM (= Debt Capital Markets) loan governance, waivers & consent compliance...."

Not the sort of person you'd hire (or who would likely be interested in your offer) if you were expecting another year or so of can-kicking, IMO.

GLA

Meanwhile,

- Rio talks up its Q4 results and highlights its technical expertise and project management. Rio Tinto Chief Executive Simon Trott said: “Our operations delivered exceptional production performance, both on a quarter-on-quarter and full year basis, as we leverage our strong foundation of operating excellence and project delivery across our portfolio."

and

- Fortescue reports plans to grow its iron ore presence beyond the Pilbara in the Thursday update, with a “presidential taskforce” established to try and get things moving on the Belinga project in Gabon.

“We’ve also continued to progress studies into the Belinga Iron Ore Project in Gabon, establishing a Presidential Taskforce to streamline the planning and delivery of an integrated mine, rail and port solution,” Fortescue growth and energy chief, Gus Pichot said.

There are now four reverse circulation drill rigs and one diamond core rig operating on site..."

GLA

Per the FT

Ivanhoe Atlantic eyes US IPO after winning rail approval

Miner producing high-grade iron ore in Guinea now favours New York over Sydney and cites Trump as a factor.

.."As the US government has increased its focus on critical minerals, Ivanhoe Atlantic has positioned its US$ 1.8Bn mine and rail project as a Trump-endorsed alternative to the massive Chinese-led mining projects nearby.

“We are very actively engaged with the US government at all levels, and we have gotten very positive feedback. I will leave it at that,” Executive Chair Pham said.

Friedland has dubbed the output from the site, also known as Nimba, as the “beluga caviar” of iron ore. Ivanhoe Atlantic says it could start shipping as soon as the first half of 2027..."

.."The Kon Kweni project, backed by Canadian-American mining billionaire Robert Friedland, will produce high-grade iron ore with 66.5 per cent purity — among the world’s highest..."

May change market dynamics a bit - the US as a prospective consumer; Guinea as a competitor to Simandou; and Zanaga as a yet-higher-quality alternative for both.

Ivanhoe will also be setting out its stall at Indaba....

GLA

Per the FT

Ivanhoe Atlantic eyes US IPO after winning rail approval

Miner producing high-grade iron ore in Guinea now favours New York over Sydney and cites Trump as a factor.

.."As the US government has increased its focus on critical minerals, Ivanhoe Atlantic has positioned its US$ 1.8Bn mine and rail project as a Trump-endorsed alternative to the massive Chinese-led mining projects nearby.

“We are very actively engaged with the US government at all levels, and we have gotten very positive feedback. I will leave it at that,” Executive Chair Pham said.

.."The Kon Kweni project, backed by Canadian-American mining billionaire Robert Friedland, will produce high-grade iron ore with 66.5 per cent purity — among the world’s highest..."

May change market dynamics a bit - the US as a prospective consumer; Guinea as a competitor to Simandou; and Zanaga as a yet-higher-quality alternative for both.

Ivanhoe will also be setting out its stall at Indaba....

GLA

Friedland has dubbed the output from the site, also known as Nimba, as the “beluga caviar” of iron ore. Ivanhoe Atlantic says it could start shipping as soon as the first half of 2027..."

Hi G_G_G,

.."o ZIOC intends on securing initial offers from investors during Q1 2026, and is targeting the announcement of transaction terms with a selected strategic investor during Q1 2026

Suggests a single partner...? Could just be wording. And the partner could be a consortium..."

I think the latter, by analogy with the set-up at Simandou:

-Rio Tinto owns 53% of SimFer Jersey Ltd, CIOH owns 47%.

-CIOH is a JV between Chinalco (75%) and major Chinese state-owned companies, including Baowu (20%), China Rail Construction Corporation (CRCC) and China Harbour Engineering Company (CHEC) (2.5% each).

-Chinalco is both a key SOE directly supervised by the central government and a pilot state-owned capital investment company.

-It's also Rio Tinto's largest (currently) shareholder.

If /IF Rio is 'the Strategic', I'd imagine a similar set-up, flexed as to percentages and participants on the Chinese side to suit Zanaga's different requirements.

A bit tied up atm, may get back to you on other stuff tonight/tomorrow.

ATB

Oops!

2 .." [(a)We give up 40-50% ownership of MPD , partner gets 50-40% of MPD, leaving C-B 10%? (b) other financiers- if consortium- may need/want offtake]...

should be initially 50% OF THE SPV that owns MPD, partner gets 50% OF THE SPV that owns MPD, our percentage(s) change if/when others participate at SPV level...I think there'll be some conceding of offtake, but it needn't necessarily be prorata to eventual equity stake.]

ATB

.."where does the Gulf 20% off-take element come in with the recent raise terms? What has been agreed and how much value has been placed against this?.."

It was a pre-condition for Greymont's subscription, so clearly important to the incomers; but it's carefully described as an 'allocation', which suggests provisionality without commitment (and so no terms discloseable). I suspect it's been set up to be dangled as bait /proof of 'legitimacy' for informal discussions with Strategics (and maybe others?) by people who have no formal authority to 'speak' for ZIOC.

All v much IMO.

HTH

Hi G_G_G,

Let me deal with part of your post - comments interleaved.

.."1. SP is being suppressed at this level. Why? And what's the significance of a circa £60m mcap level?

[A: I don't think ZIOC is bothered about its current MCap, which will take care of itself if/when s/p rises. It suits current modest steady accumulation without raising average cost of holding significantly - orig buy-in is 4.5p]

- My thoughts are that they will let the partner onto the share register. For 20% dilution at £60m mcap, the share count gets to 1bn. [ 120m shares @ 8p = £ 10m?] We have enough cash to carry us to Stage 1 production[is £ 10m for 4+ yrs enough?] (providing we don't need to pay for any of the development costs. [Big proviso...but yes]). And the partner is more aligned with ZIOC at both a project and company level, likely having a seat on the board.[Desirable. But Project needs cash more than ZIOC does - if we have free carry - so emphasis there: Partner is paying for our 'IP']

2. Partner terms I see as 50% ownership for a free carry and X% offtake at agreed pricing (probably -10% to market). [(a)We give up 40-50% ownership of MPD , partner gets 50-40% of MPD, leaving C-B 10%? (b) other financiers- if consortium- may need/want offtake]

- The VALUE [my bold, some will be reflected in our s/p] to us is US$1bn in carried development costs, which feels about right for a soon to be $5bn NPV Stage 1, and $10bn NPV Stage 2. [Actual Stage 1 Capex is $ 1.9Bn, Partner won't cover all in cash, could tap (i) supplier (EPC)credit; (ii) Exim/ ECA (UKEF/Sinosure/Hermes) ; (iii) royalty/streaming (cf Franco Nevada); (iv) offtake/prepayment (cf Glencore (!!)); steel mills/traders (GLEN, Trafigura, Bao Wu - or CMRG??, Mitsui, POSCO etc)]

- Expectation is the agreement will extend to 50% development costs for Stage 2 and extension of an agreed offtake[or offtakeS - yes to both].

3. Likely partner Gulf State, but could also be Chinese. [ Chinese sure to be involved, not sure who else. Rio? Vale? FMG? Manara poss no longer interested in iron?]

Assumptions:

[May be scope to carve out/finance separately - ADB/Afrexim ?- the 'Arise-related bit'? - port and pelletisation capex - 'tolling' arrangement?]

- Mgt will not giveaway the project for peanuts after all these years and $350m in sunk costs (closer to $500m inflation adjusted). [That $350m was paid by Xstrata and inherited by GLEN, then mostly written down/off, so in a sense not relevant].They will get 'fair value' for the amount of ownership they provide to partner(s).

- Mgt will not dilute their holding to any significant level [Agreed, see above], and will want to wrap the project as cleanly as possible. The cleaner the deal, the better they look.[YES!!]

- SP is being suppressed to allow the partner [?maybe Garbut or friends] onto the register at £60m mcap. At 20% dilution you get 1bn shares - coincidence? [I think coincidence]..."

HTH, IMO, NAI etc etc

GLA

.."Hi Extrader... odd you should mention the lasonde curve

[Why odd? and it's' Lassonde']

- I regularly use it when training mining officials.... many of them are in governments and i need to show them that the high end value is as a result of considerable. risk.

[ Surely it's a reflection of successfully MITIGATING/MANAGING the (undoubted) risk? That's where folk EARN the big bucks...because you or I couldn't/wouldn't]

With ZIOC my belief is that we are between funding and financing and construction (indeed in the middle of the funding process) - so a low point in that part of the curve...

[Exactly, isn't that what I said?]

So my assertion that until funding is covered we will languish is to my mind accurate.

[Yes, likely. It looks (to me) that funding MAY be covered shortly]

Announcing a partner with funding capacity - one must assume will cover this angle and we will re-rate.

[Yes]

That other dont like my assessment of the re-rate value is sort of immaterial - it will be what it will be..

[Yes. SOLG seems in some respects to be 'ahead of the curve', I'm not clear why that should be. But I think ZIOC has more potential for a more impressive re-rating, as you say 'che sara sara'].

I note in passing that ZIOC has become more confident in its tweets, its latest (today0 now states unambiguously..' the Zanaga Project – Africa's largest known iron ore resource.'

That's up from 'its status as a world-class iron ore asset' and ' one of the most competitive high-margin iron ore assets globally, ' from .."The ability to achieve DRI specification from the Zanaga Project's ore has the potential to transform its value proposition."...and its earlier 'bunching' amongst 'opportunities for iron ore projects with large, high-grade resources, such as the Zanaga Project...".

Maybe I'm just in a 'glass half full' frame of mind , atm.

ATB

Hi G_G_G,

If the partner will fund 50% at project level, that plus offtake-secured finance + Export Credit, Exim etc should cover the other 50%.

And it's not impossible that a 'coalition of the willing' could emerge, mainly say Rio or Vale , with the Gulfies + Japan, Korea, Indian interest alongside.

Not sure whether Fortescue would want / try to gate crash (as they did at Simandou). But - absent Belinga - they have no source of admixture to 'blend up' their Pilbara rust.

Given the importance of iron ore to the Aussie economy generally, their Govt might be persuaded to get involved in support, 'to secure Aussie jobs'.

Stranger things have happened cf UK govt support for the Chinese to keep our steel industry open.....

'Embarras de richesses' springs to mind. A 'nice' problem to have.

;->

GLA and ATB

.."MPD Congo is the asset, essentially an SPV...."

From p 6 of the 18th March 2025 Presentation:

"1: Note: Republic of Congo Government is to be provided 10% free carry shareholding in the Zanaga Project at the MPD Congo subsidiary level."

I think it likely that most Strategic investors would want another SPV sandwiched in ABOVE MPD in which C-B had no involvement.

AIUI

ATB

PS

Re .."we'd also have to have all of our project economics validated to a decent level of accuracy (possibly a job that our new finance guy is working on now)..."

Agree he's likely doing that, from the seller side.

From the investor side, it depends on who the Strategic is...and what their 'comfort level' requirements are : remember that PSEI - which we/I believe as EPC contractor has a pretty good overview of most project elements - has already worked the economics 'to bankable feasibility level' ...and will likely have the benefit of detailed knowledge of the subsequent DRI (up)grade work, also done by a Chinese firm (possibly PSEI itself).

A bankable feasibility study theoretically unlocks Chinese state and EXIM Bank financing.

I believe that MK's Asian roadshow was attended in China/PSEI by reps of several financial institutions who 'expressed keen interest' in the project, admittedly maybe just a conventional platitude.

Let's see what happens in the next few weeks.

ATB and GLA

Hi Catbert,

.."Our presentation document of March 2025 uses Kami as the benchmark on NPV % valuation.

There seems no reason to change this expectation. There were a raft of Industry luminaries with their mugshots on that March 2025 document...."

Whilst I totally agree that the Kami comparator is instructive, it's worth reminding ourselves - I have to keep on doing this myself -that while this is a ZIOC -sourced presentation (with Elphick , AT, MK and perhaps BoD - incl NED Phil Mitchell of new investor group- sign-off), there's NO endorsement by the luminaries themselves.

I think there's likely to be a fair bit of 'shadow direction' going on eg in the appointment of new broker Tamesis Partners ; the hiring of 'strategic/cultural/operational fit' consultant Canton; and this months' 2 appointments - all of which to my mind are practical steps coming from people with senior level 'hands on' experience of developing a mine.

(No disrespect to MK (who's CV shows lots of expertise at building out a mine); or AT, who has a lot of experience at the corporate finance level; but neither AFAIAA has taken on anything of Zanaga's scale or complexity).

If not 'direction', I'm sure that at the least there's a lot of 'consultation and coordination' going on, which of course it's quite proper for any company to do with its largest investor group.

But they - up to now, at least - have deliberately in my view kept 'plausible deniability'.

It'll be interesting to see at what stage they start to get behind the PR machine.

ATB

Interesting counterfactual, Jack Shaft....abd your book looks worth a read!;->

Where would you put ZIOC on the Lassonde curve, as a matter of interest?

AFAICS, it appears to be at the trough, as the ducks line up and boxes are ticked.

The Lassonde Curve Explained - Small Cap Investor https://share.google/AHN08kfowUdh0OoDg

Cheers!

Hi Rider75,

Re ZIOC, start with the last 2 x investor presentations on the website.

Re BSL, I have no special insight, I just don't like things/ anomalies that I don't understand or have an idea about possible impact. BSL only did the confirmatory DRI testing, I'd like to have the identity of the (primary) Chinese co confirmed.

It's pretty clear that it's these people: https://psei.co/services-copy-3/

'Zanaga Iron Ore Project , Congo SA – Study and Definitive Feasibility Study for MDP'

I'm not a metallurgist/ foundry specialist, so don't understand the full impact of BSL's technological advance. This seems very much an area you follow, suggest you have a look at the BSL website yourself and come back with your thoughts.

HTH