RE: In the press6 Nov 2025 22:22
H Driving,
My comment to the AFR:
.."I have an interest in the African iron ore mining sector (specifically, Zanaga/ZIOC) and read the above article with great interest...and even greater bemusement: is this a case of 'the dog that didn't bark'?
General: The article begins with a description of FMG's travails in Gabon as it has sought to develop Belinga, as a 'fix' (via blending) for its declining Pilbara ore quality. From being touted as its 'Hail Mary' pass, Belinga is now seemingly being written down/off. With his green hydrogen plans also in disarray, it seems Twiggy Forrest has some serious-perhaps existential- issues to deal with, which the AFR article might usefully have explored. Or saved for another article?
The article appears just before Simandou's inaugural ore shipment and sets the scene with very helpful graphics, describing the challenges Rio Tinto has had to address along the way.
Yet, in describing each of these issues, a 'between the lines' conclusion is almost always negative- or raises more questions than answers.
Ownership: Rio had all 4 concessions in 2008; this was halved in 2014; has since halved again (25%); and it's recently been reported that Rio may exit Simandou completely post new CEO Trott's strategic review, in an asset swap with its politically controversial shareholder Chinalco.
On the face of it, that makes the timing/tone of the article a real hostage to fortune.
Logistical and geographical issues have made Simandou's exports both inordinately expensive ('a long and complex supply chain and extreme weather patterns will cap output'.....' 'third quartile of cost curve') and ultimately not scalable (axle-loads and 'trans-shipping [at Morebaya] becomes the bottleneck').
Environmental concerns have been a (legitimate reputational) head-ache: rerouting to protect the local chimpanzees 'has cost us hundreds of millions, if not billions of dollars to address' per Rio's CTO.
Ore quality: ' the new African mines will have one clear advantage over their Australian rivals; they will generally produce ore with higher iron content', pointing out that most WA ore is between 55 and 61 percent.
This compares with Baniaka's (5mtpa) 63-64 pct; Simandou's (100mtpa?) 64-67, avge 65pct; and KonKweni's (2 to 5mtpa)'staggering' 67.5pct.
African countries name-checked as potential iron ore exporters include 'Guinea, Liberia, Mauritania, Sierra Leone, Morocco, Algeria and Kenya', yet curiously two of the 8 'familiar faces' portrayed are new investors in Zanaga, Congo-Brazzaville, which gets only a passing reference (' hopes to develop a $US1.94 billion mine in the Republic of Congo').
Continued...
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